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Anubha Goel

Publications and source records attributed to Anubha Goel.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

Topology-Aware Gaussian Graph Repair for Robust Graph Neural Networks

Graph neural networks have achieved strong performance on graph-structured data, but their effectiveness depends heavily on the quality of the observed graph. In real applications, graph topology is often imperfect: noisy edges may connect unrelated nodes, while missing edges may prevent useful information from being propagated. Existing robust graph learning methods mainly address this problem by removing suspicious edges or by learning a new graph structure during training. However, edge removal alone cannot recover missing connections, and graph structure learning may introduce additional optimization complexity. In this paper, we propose Topology-Aware Gaussian Repair (TAGR), a simple graph repair framework for robust message passing in graph neural networks. Instead of learning a dense adjacency matrix, TAGR constructs a sparse feature-neighborhood graph using an adaptive Gaussian kernel and combines it with a topology-aware residual correction of the observed graph. The Gaussian repair component introduces auxiliary edges between feature-similar nodes, while the residual correction preserves and reweights the original topology according to local feature and structural consistency. The repaired graph can be used directly with standard graph neural networks without changing their architectures. Extensive experiments on benchmark citation networks show that TAGR improves the robustness of GNNs under both noisy-edge and missing-edge settings. The analysis further show that Gaussian feature-neighborhood repair provides the main robustness gain, while topology-aware residual correction improves stability when the observed graph is incomplete. These results suggest that effective graph robustness can be achieved through lightweight sparse graph repair rather than dense graph structure learning.

cs.LG

A comprehensive review and analysis of different modeling approaches for financial index tracking problem

Index tracking, also known as passive investing, has gained significant traction in financial markets due to its cost-effective and efficient approach to replicating the performance of a specific market index. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of the various modeling approaches and strategies developed for index tracking, highlighting the strengths and limitations of each approach. We categorize the index tracking models into three broad frameworks: optimization-based models, statistical-based models and machine learning based data-driven approach. A comprehensive empirical study conducted on the S\&P 500 dataset demonstrates that the tracking error volatility model under the optimization-based framework delivers the most precise index tracking, the convex co-integration model, under the statistical-based framework achieves the strongest return-risk balance, and the deep neural network with fixed noise model within the data-driven framework provides a competitive performance with notably low turnover and high computational efficiency. By combining a critical review of the existing literature with comparative empirical analysis, this paper aims to provide insights into the evolving landscape of index tracking and its practical implications for investors and fund managers.

q-fin.PM

Class of topological portfolios: Are they better than classical portfolios?

Topological Data Analysis (TDA), an emerging field in investment sciences, harnesses mathematical methods to extract data features based on shape, offering a promising alternative to classical portfolio selection methodologies. We utilize persistence landscapes, a type of summary statistics for persistent homology, to capture the topological variation of returns, blossoming a novel concept of ``Topological Risk". Our proposed topological risk then quantifies portfolio risk by tracking time-varying topological properties of assets through the $L_p$ norm of the persistence landscape. Through optimization, we derive an optimal portfolio that minimizes this topological risk. Numerical experiments conducted using nearly a decade long S\&P 500 data demonstrate the superior performance of our TDA-based portfolios in comparison to the seven popular portfolio optimization models and two benchmark portfolio strategies, the naive $1/N$ portfolio and the S\&P 500 market index, in terms of excess mean return, and several financial ratios. The outcome remains consistent through out the computational analysis conducted for the varying size of holding and investment time horizon. These results underscore the potential of our TDA-based topological risk metric in providing a more comprehensive understanding of portfolio dynamics than traditional statistical measures. As such, it holds significant relevance for modern portfolio management practices.

q-fin.PM

Classifying and Clustering Trading Agents

The rapid development of sophisticated machine learning methods, together with the increased availability of financial data, has the potential to transform financial research, but also poses a challenge in terms of validation and interpretation. A good case study is the task of classifying financial investors based on their behavioral patterns. Not only do we have access to both classification and clustering tools for high-dimensional data, but also data identifying individual investors is finally available. The problem, however, is that we do not have access to ground truth when working with real-world data. This, together with often limited interpretability of modern machine learning methods, makes it difficult to fully utilize the available research potential. In order to deal with this challenge we propose to use a realistic agent-based model as a way to generate synthetic data. This way one has access to ground truth, large replicable data, and limitless research scenarios. Using this approach we show how, even when classifying trading agents in a supervised manner is relatively easy, a more realistic task of unsupervised clustering may give incorrect or even misleading results. We complete the results with investigating the details of how supervised techniques were able to successfully distinguish between different trading behaviors.

q-fin.CP

Foundation Time-Series AI Model for Realized Volatility Forecasting

Time series foundation models (FMs) have emerged as a popular paradigm for zero-shot multi-domain forecasting. These models are trained on numerous diverse datasets and claim to be effective forecasters across multiple different time series domains, including financial data. In this study, we evaluate the effectiveness of FMs, specifically the TimesFM model, for volatility forecasting, a core task in financial risk management. We first evaluate TimesFM in its pretrained (zero-shot) form, followed by our custom fine-tuning procedure based on incremental learning, and compare the resulting models against standard econometric benchmarks. While the pretrained model provides a reasonable baseline, our findings show that incremental fine-tuning, which allows the model to adapt to new financial return data over time, is essential for learning volatility patterns effectively. Fine-tuned variants not only improve forecast accuracy but also statistically outperform traditional models, as demonstrated through Diebold-Mariano and Giacomini-White tests. These results highlight the potential of foundation models as scalable and adaptive tools for financial forecasting-capable of delivering strong performance in dynamic market environments when paired with targeted fine-tuning strategies.

q-fin.RM

Learning hidden cascades via classification

The spreading dynamics in social networks are often studied under the assumption that individuals' statuses, whether informed or infected, are fully observable. However, in many real-world situations, such statuses remain unobservable, which is crucial for determining an individual's potential to further spread the infection. While final statuses are hidden, intermediate indicators such as symptoms of infection are observable and provide useful representations of the underlying diffusion process. We propose a partial observability-aware Machine Learning framework to learn the characteristics of the spreading model. We term the method Distribution Classification, which utilizes the power of classifiers to infer the underlying transmission dynamics. Through extensive benchmarking against Approximate Bayesian Computation and GNN-based baselines, our framework consistently outperforms these state-of-the-art methods, delivering accurate parameter estimates across diverse diffusion settings while scaling efficiently to large networks. We validate the method on synthetic networks and extend the study to a real-world insider trading network, demonstrating its effectiveness in analyzing spreading phenomena where direct observation of individual statuses is not possible.

cs.SI

Topological Clustering of Agents in Hidden Information Contagions: Application to Financial Markets

Building on topological data analysis and expert knowledge, this study introduces a Mapper-based approach to cluster agents based on their tendency to be influenced by information spread. The context of our paper is financial markets with an aim to identify agents trading opportunistically on insider information while minimizing false positives, a critical challenge in financial market surveillance. We verify and demonstrate our methods using both synthetic and empirical data on insider networks and investor-level transactions in a stock market. Recognizing the sensitive nature of insider trading cases, we design a conservative approach to minimize false positives, ensuring that innocent agents are not wrongfully implicated. We find that the mapper-based method systematically outperforms other methods on synthetic data with ground truth. We also apply the method to empirical data and verify the results using a statistical validation method based on persistence homology. Our findings indicate that the proposed Mapper-based technique effectively identifies a subset of agents who tend to take advantage of inside information they have received. This method is highly adaptable to various applications involving the spread of information or diseases, where agents exhibit only indirect evidence of their carrier status (symptoms) through their behavior.

stat.ME

Time-Series Foundation AI Model for Value-at-Risk Forecasting

This study is the first to analyze the performance of a time-series foundation AI model for Value-at-Risk (VaR), which essentially forecasts the left-tail quantiles of returns. Foundation models, pre-trained on diverse datasets, can be applied in a zero-shot setting with minimal data or further improved through finetuning. We compare Google's TimesFM model to conventional parametric and non-parametric models, including GARCH and Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS), using 19 years of daily returns from the SP 100 index and its constituents. Backtesting with over 8.5 years of out-of-sample data shows that the fine-tuned foundation model consistently outperforms traditional methods in actual-over-expected ratios. For the quantile score loss function, it performs comparably to the best econometric model, GAS. Overall, the foundation model ranks as the best or among the top performers across the 0.01, 0.025, 0.05, and 0.1 quantile forecasting. Fine-tuning significantly improves accuracy, showing that zero-shot use is not optimal for VaR.

q-fin.RM

Sparse Portfolio Selection via Topological Data Analysis based Clustering

This paper uses topological data analysis (TDA) tools and introduces a data-driven clustering-based stock selection strategy tailored for sparse portfolio construction. Our asset selection strategy exploits the topological features of stock price movements to select a subset of topologically similar (different) assets for a sparse index tracking (Markowitz) portfolio. We introduce new distance measures, which serve as an input to the clustering algorithm, on the space of persistence diagrams and landscapes that consider the time component of a time series. We conduct an empirical analysis on the S\&P index from 2009 to 2022, including a study on the COVID-19 data to validate the robustness of our methodology. Our strategy to integrate TDA with the clustering algorithm significantly enhanced the performance of sparse portfolios across various performance measures in diverse market scenarios.

q-fin.PM

Sparse Index Tracking via Topological Learning

In this research, we introduce a novel methodology for the index tracking problem with sparse portfolios by leveraging topological data analysis (TDA). Utilizing persistence homology to measure the riskiness of assets, we introduce a topological method for data-driven learning of the parameters for regularization terms. Specifically, the Vietoris-Rips filtration method is utilized to capture the intricate topological features of asset movements, providing a robust framework for portfolio tracking. Our approach has the advantage of accommodating both $\ell_1$ and $\ell_2$ penalty terms without the requirement for expensive estimation procedures. We empirically validate the performance of our methodology against state-of-the-art sparse index tracking techniques, such as Elastic-Net and SLOPE, using a dataset that covers 23 years of S&P500 index and its constituent data. Our out-of-sample results show that this computationally efficient technique surpasses conventional methods across risk metrics, risk-adjusted performance, and trading expenses in varied market conditions. Furthermore, in turbulent markets, it not only maintains but also enhances tracking performance.

cs.CE