arXiv subjects

Anup Aprem

Publications and source records attributed to Anup Aprem.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Masking Radar Cognition under Adversarial Surveillance: A Distributional Privacy Framework

In this article, we propose an online electronic counter-countermeasure (ECCM) framework designed to conceal the strategic decision-making processes of a cognitive radar (CR) operating under adversarial surveillance. We model the CR under two distinct decision paradigms: a static constrained utility-maximizing behavior and a dynamic expected utility-maximizing behavior. The radar's utility function is modeled via a von Mises--Fisher (vMF) distribution, with the distributional parameter constituting the private information to be protected from adversarial inference. We adopt a distribution privacy framework to conceal this private information and provide formal distribution privacy guarantees for cognition masking. In this work, we develop cognition-hiding algorithms for both static constrained utility maximization (WDPCH-SU), and dynamic expected utility maximization (WDPCH-DU). Through rigorous mathematical analysis, we show that both WDPCH-SU and WDPCH-DU satisfy $\epsilon$-distribution privacy ($\epsilon$-DistP) against inference-based adversarial attacks and present the privacy--performance trade-off bounds, quantifying utility loss (in static setting) and expected utility deviation (in dynamic setting) as functions of $\epsilon$. Numerical results show that WDPCH-SU gives about 15\% improvement in utility loss at maximum privacy compared to the existing methodology while WDPCH-DU achieves a greater reduction in adversarial Fisher information without requiring explicit Fisher information constraints, at a moderate, analytically bounded utility deviation. These results are highly promising in many 6G communication scenarios such as network slicing for automated driving and swarm UAV coordination, where it is essential to keep the resource allocation policy robust against privacy attacks.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2026

Structured Reinforcement Learning for Bayesian Persuasion : Application to Intelligent Interactive Driving

Interactive driving, wherein an intelligent lead vehicle equipped with real-time traffic data coordinates route choices of connected vehicles, offers a promising approach to dynamic traffic management. To address the challenge of harmonising decisions, this paper considers the strategic information revealing framework of Bayesian persuasion. Here, the principal (lead vehicle) aims to guide the agent's (connected vehicle) partially observable sequential decision making towards its own objectives by selectively revealing information, such as real-time traffic ahead, using signals. However, the agent's farsighted response to maximize its long-term reward, renders the principal's signaling strategy design computationally challenging. We propose an online structured reinforcement learning framework to synthesize computationally efficient signaling strategy which is persuasive for a far-sighted agent. The main contributions of the paper are as follows: (i) For a monotonic agent with approximate best response, we propose MAPL, a structured policy learning algorithm for faster online learning, (ii) Identification of sufficient conditions for the supermodular structure of the Q function of the principal for a monotonic agent, (iii) Identification of sufficient conditions to ensure the persuasiveness of the principal's signaling strategy, (iv) Supermodular Q learning for Principal (SQP), which leverages the supermodular structure of principal's action value to synthesize computationally efficient signaling strategy that is persuasive for a monotonic learning agent, (v) Numerical analysis considering a real-time application of Bayesian persuasive driving for lane selection demonstrates that the proposed method is 30% cost efficient for optimising travelling rewards of both the lead and connected vehicle compared to the existing methodologies for signaling strategy design.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Inverse Learning assisted V2I Communication for Intent Based 6G ISAC Vehicular Networks

6G is expected to bring unprecedented advancements in the capabilities of vehicular networks. However, the advent of 6G will also introduce changes in the operation of vehicular communication infrastructures such as roadside units (RSUs), including the incorporation of autonomous intent-based network paradigm and integrated sensing and communication (ISAC) capabilities. While ISAC enables sensing and communication within a single 6G network node, intent-based network design paradigm ensures that network nodes such as RSUs, act as autonomous cognitive agents to fulfill the objectives of their respective communication service providers. This paradigm shift necessitates the development of V2I communication strategies that learns and adapts to the sensing-assisted communication and the autonomous decision-making strategies of RSUs. We model the RSU as a constrained utility maximizer, where the utility function characterizes the RSU intent, and formulate an inverse learning (IL) problem to infer the underlying utility function from observed ISAC RSU actions, for example the adaptive beamwidth allocation in response to the kinematic states of vehicles within a vehicular micro-cloud (VMC). The main contributions of this paper are: (i) ATIL, a nonparametric method based on Afriat theorem for fixed utility learning; (ii) FICNNIL, a parametric approach using fully input-concave neural networks, for structured fixed utility learning; and (iii) PICNNIL, a parametric approach based on partially input-concave neural networks, for inverse learning of state-dependent utilities. (iv) Federated inverse learning algorithms FedFICNNIL and FedPICNNIL for fixed and state dependent utility, respectively. We demonstrate the proposed IL-based framework for two V2I communication applications in VMCs, namely predictive scheduling for cooperative data downloading and dynamic cluster-head selection.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2026

Joint Inverse Learning of Cognitive Radar Perception and Perception-Action Policy

Cognitive Radars (CRs) employ perception-action cycle to adapt their sensing and transmission strategies based on its' perception of the target kinematic states and mission objectives. This paper considers an inverse learning Electronic Counter Measure (ECM) that infers both the perception and perception-driven action policy of the adversarial CR's from the actions of the CR, i.e. the sensing and transmission actions taken by the CR. Existing frameworks, in the literature, assume the knowledge of either the perception or the perception-action policy and infer the other. However, this assumption is unrealistic in an adversarial setting. We address this gap by proposing an online, nonparametric Bayesian machine learning framework and developing the Inverse Particle Filter with Dependent Dirichlet Process (IPFDDP) algorithm, which characterizes the perception-dependent action policy using a Dependent Dirichlet Process (DDP) and embeds kernel-based DDP inference within a Bayesian inverse particle filtering framework to jointly estimate the CR's perception and perception-action policy. Extensive numerical simulations demonstrate that IPFDDP outperforms existing inverse learning methods in terms of mean squared error, Kullback-Leibler divergence between the estimated and true policy, and accuracy in identifying relative action preferences. Unlike the existing techniques, the proposed Bayesian formulation naturally quantifies uncertainty in inferred perception and perception-action policy, enabling active probing strategies for sample efficient inverse learning. Simulation results show that active probing integrated with IPFDDP achieves, on average, a 40% faster reduction in KL divergence compared to randomized probing.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2023

Bayesian framework for characterizing cryptocurrency market dynamics, structural dependency, and volatility using potential field

Identifying the structural dependence between the cryptocurrencies and predicting market trend are fundamental for effective portfolio management in cryptocurrency trading. In this paper, we present a unified Bayesian framework based on potential field theory and Gaussian Process to characterize the structural dependency of various cryptocurrencies, using historic price information. The following are our significant contributions: (i) Proposed a novel model for cryptocurrency price movements as a trajectory of a dynamical system governed by a time-varying non-linear potential field. (ii) Validated the existence of the non-linear potential function in cryptocurrency market through Lyapunov stability analysis. (iii) Developed a Bayesian framework for inferring the non-linear potential function from observed cryptocurrency prices. (iv) Proposed that attractors and repellers inferred from the potential field are reliable cryptocurrency market indicators, surpassing existing attributes, such as, mean, open price or close price of an observation window, in the literature. (v) Analysis of cryptocurrency market during various Bitcoin crash durations from April 2017 to November 2021, shows that attractors captured the market trend, volatility, and correlation. In addition, attractors aids explainability and visualization. (vi) The structural dependence inferred by the proposed approach was found to be consistent with results obtained using the popular wavelet coherence approach. (vii) The proposed market indicators (attractors and repellers) can be used to improve the prediction performance of state-of-art deep learning price prediction models. As, an example, we show improvement in Litecoin price prediction up to a horizon of 12 days.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2018

A Bayesian optimization approach to compute the Nash equilibria of potential games using bandit feedback

Computing Nash equilibria for strategic multi-agent systems is challenging for expensive black box systems. Motivated by the ubiquity of games involving exploitation of common resources, this paper considers the above problem for potential games. We use the Bayesian optimization framework to obtain novel algorithms to solve finite (discrete action spaces) and infinite (real interval action spaces) potential games, utilizing the structure of potential games. Numerical results illustrate the efficiency of the approach in computing the Nash equilibria of static potential games and linear Nash equilibria of dynamic potential games.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2017

Multiple Stopping Time POMDPs: Structural Results & Application in Interactive Advertising in Social Media

This paper considers a multiple stopping time problem for a Markov chain observed in noise, where a decision maker chooses at most L stopping times to maximize a cumulative objective. We formulate the problem as a Partially Observed Markov Decision Process (POMDP) and derive structural results for the optimal multiple stopping policy. The main results are as follows: i) The optimal multiple stopping policy is shown to be characterized by threshold curves in the unit simplex of Bayesian Posteriors. ii) The stopping setsl (defined by the threshold curves) are shown to exhibit a nested structure. iii) The optimal cumulative reward is shown to be monotone with respect to the copositive ordering of the transition matrix. iv) A stochastic gradient algorithm is provided for estimating linear threshold policies by exploiting the structural results. These linear threshold policies approximate the threshold curves, and share the monotone structure of the optimal multiple stopping policy. As an illustrative example, we apply the multiple stopping framework to interactively schedule advertisements in live online social media. It is shown that advertisement scheduling using multiple stopping performs significantly better than currently used methods.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2016

Utility Change Point Detection in Online Social Media: A Revealed Preference Framework

This paper deals with change detection of utility maximization behaviour in online social media. Such changes occur due to the effect of marketing, advertising, or changes in ground truth. First, we use the revealed preference framework to detect the unknown time point (change point) at which the utility function changed. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for detecting the change point. Second, in the presence of noisy measurements, we propose a method to detect the change point and construct a decision test. Also, an optimization criteria is provided to recover the linear perturbation coefficients. Finally, to reduce the computational cost, a dimensionality reduction algorithm using Johnson-Lindenstrauss transform is presented. The results developed are illustrated on two real datasets: Yahoo! Tech Buzz dataset and Youstatanalyzer dataset. By using the results developed in the paper, several useful insights can be gleaned from these data sets. First, the changes in ground truth affecting the utility of the agent can be detected by utility maximization behaviour in online search. Second, the recovered utility functions satisfy the single crossing property indicating strategic substitute behaviour in online search. Third, due to the large number of videos in YouTube, the utility maximization behaviour was verified through the dimensionality reduction algorithm. Finally, using the utility function recovered in the lower dimension, we devise an algorithm to predict total traffic in YouTube.

math.ST↗

arXiv2016

Engagement dynamics and sensitivity analysis of YouTube videos

YouTube, with millions of content creators, has become the preferred destination for watching videos online. Through the Partner program, YouTube allows content creators to monetize their popular videos. Of significant importance for content creators is which meta-level features (e.g. title, tag, thumbnail) are most sensitive for promoting video popularity. The popularity of videos also depends on the social dynamics, i.e. the interaction of the content creators (or channels) with YouTube users. Using real-world data consisting of about 6 million videos spread over 25 thousand channels, we empirically examine the sensitivity of YouTube meta-level features and social dynamics. The key meta-level features that impact the view counts of a video include: first day view count , number of subscribers, contrast of the video thumbnail, Google hits, number of keywords, video category, title length, and number of upper-case letters in the title respectively and illustrate that these meta-level features can be used to estimate the popularity of a video. In addition, optimizing the meta-level features after a video is posted increases the popularity of videos. In the context of social dynamics, we discover that there is a causal relationship between views to a channel and the associated number of subscribers. Additionally, insights into the effects of scheduling and video playthrough in a channel are also provided. Our findings provide a useful understanding of user engagement in YouTube.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2016

Opportunistic Advertisement Scheduling in Live Social Media: A Multiple Stopping Time POMDP Approach

Live online social broadcasting services like YouTube Live and Twitch have steadily gained popularity due to improved bandwidth, ease of generating content and the ability to earn revenue on the generated content. In contrast to traditional cable television, revenue in online services is generated solely through advertisements, and depends on the number of clicks generated. Channel owners aim to opportunistically schedule advertisements so as to generate maximum revenue. This paper considers the problem of optimal scheduling of advertisements in live online social media. The problem is formulated as a multiple stopping problem and is addressed in a partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) framework. Structural results are provided on the optimal advertisement scheduling policy. By exploiting the structure of the optimal policy, best linear thresholds are computed using stochastic approximation. The proposed model and framework are validated on real datasets, and the following observations are made: (i) The policy obtained by the multiple stopping problem can be used to detect changes in ground truth from online search data (ii) Numerical results show a significant improvement in the expected revenue by opportunistically scheduling the advertisements. The revenue can be improved by $20-30\%$ in comparison to currently employed periodic scheduling.

cs.SI↗