arXiv subjects

Anushka De

Publications and source records attributed to Anushka De.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Empirical parameterization of the Elo Rating System

This study aims to provide a data-driven approach for empirically tuning and validating rating systems, focusing on the Elo system. Well-known rating frameworks, such as Elo, Glicko, TrueSkill systems, rely on parameters that are usually chosen based on probabilistic assumptions or conventions, and do not utilize game-specific data. To address this issue, we propose a methodology that learns optimal parameter values by maximizing the predictive accuracy of match outcomes. The proposed parameter-tuning framework is a generalizable method that can be extended to any rating system, even for multiplayer setups, through suitable modification of the parameter space. Implementation of the rating system on real and simulated gameplay data demonstrates the suitability of the data-driven rating system in modeling player performance.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

Causal Analysis of Health, Education, and Economic Well-Being in India -- Evidence from the Young Lives Survey

This study investigates the dynamic and potentially causal relationships among childhood health, education, and long-term economic well-being in India using longitudinal data from the Young Lives Survey. While prior research often examines these domains in isolation, we adopt an integrated empirical framework combining panel data methods, instrumental variable regression, and causal graph analysis to disentangle their interdependencies. Our analysis spans five survey rounds covering two cohorts of children tracked from early childhood to young adulthood. Results indicate strong persistence in household economic status, highlighting limited intergenerational mobility. Education, proxied by Item Response Theory-based mathematics scores, consistently emerges as the most robust predictor of future economic well-being, particularly in the younger cohort. In contrast, self-reported childhood health shows limited direct impact on either education or later wealth, though it is influenced by household economic conditions. These findings underscore the foundational role of wealth and the growing importance of cognitive achievement in shaping life trajectories. The study supports policy approaches that prioritize early investments in learning outcomes alongside targeted economic support for disadvantaged households. By integrating statistical modeling with development policy insights, this research contributes to understanding how early-life conditions shape economic opportunity in low- and middle-income contexts.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

Skill vs. Chance Quantification for Popular Card & Board Games

This paper presents a data-driven statistical framework to quantify the role of skill in games, addressing the long-standing question of whether success in a game is predominantly driven by skill or chance. We analyze player level data from four popular games Chess, Rummy, Ludo, and Teen Patti, using empirical win statistics across varying levels of experience. By modeling win rate as a function of experience through a regression framework and employing empirical bootstrap resampling, we estimate the degree to which outcomes improve with repeated play. To summarize these dynamics, we propose a flexible skill score that emphasizes learning over initial performance, aligning with practical and regulatory interpretations of skill. Our results reveal a clear ranking, with Chess showing the highest skill component and Teen Patti the lowest, while Rummy and Ludo fall in between. The proposed framework is transparent, reproducible, and adaptable to other game formats and outcome metrics, offering potential applications in legal classification, game design, and player performance analysis.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Capturing Perception to Poverty using Conjoint Analysis & Partial Profile Choice Experiment

The objective of this study is applying a utility based analysis to a comparatively efficient design experiment which can capture people's perception towards the various components of a commodity. Here we studied the multi-dimensional poverty index and the relative importance of its components and their two-factor interaction effects. We also discussed how to model a choice based conjoint data for determining the utility of the components and their interactions. Empirical results from survey data shows the nature of coefficients, in terms of utility derived by the individuals, their statistical significance and validity in the present framework. There has been some discrepancies in the results between the bootstrap model and the original model, which can be understood by surveying more people, and ensuring comparative homogeneity in the data.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

Post-Covid learning assessment of school children: A Project by CRY & RILM across four states

The COVID-19 pandemic struck education system around the globe and initiated an immediate and complete lockdown of all the educational institutions, to maintain social distancing. CRY (Child Rights and You) in collaboration with RILM (Rotary India Literacy Mission) initiated a project to assess the learning abilities of 4000 children across four states: Jammu & Kashmir, Jharkhand, Manipur and West Bengal. Every child was provided with the books of appropriate class according to their age in order to test their competency in reading and basic calculation as well and thereafter the compatible class was determined. The assessments were carried over 3 quarters in 4 subjects: oral assessments in 1st Language, 2nd Language and Mathematics and a writing assessment and a binary variable for improvement or no improvement (1/0) was provided. This paper suggests a measure which gives a unique score for improvement level of students with varied class lag since it will not be a desirable idea to grade the students with varied class lags on the same basis. This paper also investigates and evaluates the progression of student performance over the 3 quarters, suggests the use of a comprehensive score measure for summarising the inter-quarter performance. The analysis of progression has been carried out by gender and state level for male-female and inter state comparison respectively.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

A Non-Parametric Approach to Detect Patterns in Binary Sequences

In many circumstances, given an ordered sequence of one or more types of elements or symbols, the objective is to determine the existence of any randomness in the occurrence of one specific element, say type 1. This method can help detect non-random patterns, such as wins or losses in a series of games. Existing methods of tests based on total number of runs or tests based on length of longest run (Mosteller (1941)) can be used for testing the null hypothesis of randomness in the entire sequence, and not a specific type of element. Moreover, the Runs Test often yields results that contradict the patterns visualized in graphs showing, for instance, win proportions over time. This paper develops a test approach to address this problem by computing the gaps between two consecutive type 1 elements, by identifying patterns in occurrence and directional trends (increasing, decreasing, or constant), applies the exact Binomial test, Kendall's Tau, and the Siegel-Tukey test for scale problems. Further modifications suggested by Jan Vegelius(1982) have been applied in the Siegel Tukey test to adjust for tied ranks and achieve more accurate results. This approach is distribution-free and suitable for small sample sizes. Also comparisons with the conventional runs test demonstrates the superiority of the proposed method under the null hypothesis of randomness in the occurrence of type 1 elements.

stat.ME↗