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Aoi Naito

Publications and source records attributed to Aoi Naito.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

A latent dimension of Condorcet's jury theorem for multiple AI advisers

When the same question is asked of multiple AI advisers, as in self-consistency and LLM-as-a-judge panels, Condorcet's jury theorem predicts that adding independent, competent advisers makes the majority more reliable. The theorem, however, has a latent dimension when viewed from the user's vantage: adding advisers also makes disagreement more visible. A binomial model reveals that this ``visible dissent'' becomes nearly inevitable as the number of advisers grows, and that reliability and disagreement both approach certainty but at different convergence rates. The two rates cross at an adviser accuracy of 4/5 (0.8). Below this value, visible dissent approaches certainty faster than reliability and, with enough advisers, becomes more likely than a correct majority. Even ideal panels of independent and competent advisers can be correct in aggregate but appear divided; such disagreement does not by itself indicate aggregation failure. The way advisers split also provides a common basis for predictive multiplicity, reconciliation load, and reliance miscalibration. These results indicate two distinct decisions when using multiple AI advisers: how many advisers to consult and how their verdicts should be presented and interpreted.

cs.CY

Faith in AI can narrow the futures individuals consider

Artificial intelligence (AI) predictions are increasingly used to inform human decisions. Here, using a behavioral implementation of the classic Newcomb's paradox in 1,305 participants, we show that AI predictions can also shape the reasoning people use to make a decision. In this paradigm, perceived predictive authority can alter how people reason about their future actions, leading them to forgo a guaranteed reward. Over 40% of participants treated AI as such a predictive authority about their own behavior, significantly increasing the odds of forgoing the guaranteed reward by a factor of 3.39 (95% CI: 2.45-4.70) and reducing earnings by 10.7-42.9%. The effect appeared across AI presentations and decision contexts and remained detectable even when predictions repeatedly failed. When people perceive AI as capable of predicting their personal behavior, the mere presence of AI predictions may shape their decision-making, narrowing the futures they consider.

cs.HC

Systematic Failures in Collective Reasoning under Distributed Information in Multi-Agent LLMs

Multi-agent systems built on large language models (LLMs) are expected to enhance decision-making by pooling distributed information, yet systematically evaluating this capability has remained challenging. We introduce HiddenBench, a 65-task benchmark grounded in the Hidden Profile paradigm, which isolates collective reasoning under distributed information from individual reasoning ability. Evaluating 15 frontier LLMs, we find that multi-agent LLMs achieve only 30.1% accuracy under distributed information, compared to 80.7% accuracy for single agents given complete information. We trace this gap to a systematic failure mode: agents cannot recognize or act under latent information asymmetry -- they fail to reason about what others might know but have not yet expressed, leading to premature convergence on shared evidence while critical distributed facts remain unexplored. These failures persist across prompting strategies, communication depths, and group sizes -- and worsen as groups scale. While some models (e.g., Gemini-2.5-Flash/Pro) outperform others, neither model scale nor individual reasoning accuracy reliably predicts collective performance. We further show that this bottleneck is actionable: a lightweight structured communication protocol substantially improves collective reasoning across model families. Our results identify failures in collective information exploration in decision-making as a key limitation of multi-agent LLMs, and provide a theory-grounded, reproducible framework for diagnosing collective reasoning failures.

cs.CL