Lens Modeling and Cosmological Inference from an Impure Sample of Galaxy-Galaxy Strong Lenses
The start of the Legacy Survey of Space and Time marks a new era for strong lensing science, where the number of strong lenses identified is expected to increase to $\mathcal{O}(10^5)$. In this paper we use a neural network to determine the precision with which lens parameters can be determined, using realistic simulated LSST lensed systems. We find that the Einstein radius can be measured with a mean precision of $3.7\%$ with calibrated uncertainties accurately reflecting the corresponding measurement error. Based on the performance of current strong lens classifiers, the $\sim 100,000$ detectable strong lenses are expected to be accompanied by a similar or larger number of false positives (non-lenses). In readiness for this we introduce a formalism, termed `COSMIC-BEAMS', to infer cosmological parameters while accounting for contamination by false positives. As a proof-of-concept, using simulated LSST measurements of the Einstein radii of a realistic and impure sample of photometric lens systems, i.e. those without spectroscopic confirmation, we find that the cosmological parameters $Ω_m$, $Ω_Λ$, and $w$ can be measured to a precision of $0.1$, $0.03$ and $0.15$ respectively for a $w$CDM cosmology. We demonstrate that unbiased cosmological parameters can be inferred even in strong lens samples contaminated by $50\%$ false positives, and that the photometric dataset of $100\,000$ strong lenses will provide equivalent $w$-precision to $2500-3500$ spectroscopic systems.