arXiv subjects

Archil Gulisashvili

Publications and source records attributed to Archil Gulisashvili.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2022

Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models and Large Deviation Principles

We establish a comprehensive sample path large deviation principle (LDP) for log-processes associated with multivariate time-inhomogeneous stochastic volatility models. Examples of models for which the new LDP holds include Gaussian models, non-Gaussian fractional models, mixed models, models with reflection, and models in which the volatility process is a solution to a Volterra type stochastic integral equation. The LDP for log-processes is used to obtain large deviation style asymptotic formulas for the distribution function of the first exit time of a log-process from an open set and for the price of a multidimensional binary barrier option. We also prove a sample path LDP for solutions to Volterra type stochastic integral equations with predictable coefficients depending on auxiliary stochastic processes.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Time-inhomogeneous Gaussian stochastic volatility models: Large deviations and super roughness

We introduce time-inhomogeneous stochastic volatility models, in which the volatility is described by a nonnegative function of a Volterra type continuous Gaussian process that may have very rough sample paths. The main results obtained in the paper are sample path and small-noise large deviation principles for the log-price process in a time-inhomogeneous super rough Gaussian model under very mild restrictions. We use these results to study the asymptotic behavior of binary barrier options, exit time probability functions, and call options.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Large deviation principles for stochastic volatility models with reflection and three faces of the Stein and Stein model

We introduce stochastic volatility models, in which the volatility is described by a time-dependent nonnegative function of a reflecting diffusion. The idea to use reflecting diffusions as building blocks of the volatility came into being because of a certain volatility misspecification in the classical Stein and Stein model. A version of this model that uses the reflecting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process as the volatility process is a special example of a stochastic volatility model with reflection. The main results obtained in the present paper are sample path and small-noise large deviation principles for the log-price process in a stochastic volatility model with reflection under rather mild restrictions. We use these results to study the asymptotic behavior of binary barrier options and call prices in the small-noise regime.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2020

Large deviations for fractional volatility models with non-Gaussian volatility driver

We study stochastic volatility models in which the volatility process is a function of a continuous fractional stochastic process, which is an integral transform of the solution of an SDE satisfying the Yamada-Watanabe condition. We establish a small-noise large deviation principle for the log-price, and, for a special case of our setup, obtain logarithmic call price asymptotics for large strikes.

math.PR↗

arXiv2019

Gaussian stochastic volatility models: Scaling regimes, large deviations, and moment explosions

In this paper, we establish sample path large and moderate deviation principles for log-price processes in Gaussian stochastic volatility models, and study the asymptotic behavior of exit probabilities, call pricing functions, and the implied volatility. In addition, we prove that if the volatility function in an uncorrelated Gaussian model grows faster than linearly, then, for the asset price process, all the moments of order greater than one are infinite. Similar moment explosion results are obtained for correlated models.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2019

Higher order approximation of call option prices under stochastic volatility models

In the present paper, a decomposition formula for the call price due to Alòs is transformed into a Taylor type formula containing an infinite series with stochastic terms. The new decomposition may be considered as an alternative to the decomposition of the call price found in a recent paper of Alòs, Gatheral and Radoičić. We use the new decomposition to obtain various approximations to the call price in the Heston model with sharper estimates of the error term than in the previously known approximations. One of the formulas obtained in the present paper has five significant terms and an error estimate of the form $O(ν^{3}(\left|ρ\right|+ν))$, where $ν$ is the vol-vol parameter, and $ρ$ is the correlation coefficient between the price and the volatility in the Heston model. Another approximation formula contains seven more terms and the error estimate is of the form $O(ν^4(1+|ρ|)$. For the uncorrelated Hestom model ($ρ=0$), we obtain a formula with four significant terms and an error estimate $O(ν^6)$. Numerical experiments show that the new approximations to the call price perform especially well in the high volatility mode.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2018

Large deviation principle for Volterra type fractional stochastic volatility models

We study fractional stochastic volatility models in which the volatility process is a positive continuous function $σ$ of a continuous Gaussian process $\widehat{B}$. Forde and Zhang established a large deviation principle for the log-price process in such a model under the assumptions that the function $σ$ is globally Hölder-continuous and the process $\widehat{B}$ is fractional Brownian motion. In the present paper, we prove a similar small-noise large deviation principle under weaker restrictions on $σ$ and $\widehat{B}$. We assume that $σ$ satisfies a mild local regularity condition, while the process $\widehat{B}$ is a Volterra type Gaussian process. Under an additional assumption of the self-similarity of the process $\widehat{B}$, we derive a large deviation principle in the small-time regime. As an application, we obtain asymptotic formulas for binary options, call and put pricing functions, and the implied volatility in certain mixed regimes.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2018

Short-time near-the-money skew in rough fractional volatility models

We consider rough stochastic volatility models where the driving noise of volatility has fractional scaling, in the "rough" regime of Hurst parameter $H < 1/2$. This regime recently attracted a lot of attention both from the statistical and option pricing point of view. With focus on the latter, we sharpen the large deviation results of Forde-Zhang (2017) in a way that allows us to zoom-in around the money while maintaining full analytical tractability. More precisely, this amounts to proving higher order moderate deviation estimates, only recently introduced in the option pricing context. This in turn allows us to push the applicability range of known at-the-money skew approximation formulae from CLT type log-moneyness deviations of order $t^{1/2}$ (recent works of Alòs, León & Vives and Fukasawa) to the wider moderate deviations regime.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2017

Extreme-Strike Asymptotics for General Gaussian Stochastic Volatility Models

We consider a stochastic volatility asset price model in which the volatility is the absolute value of a continuous Gaussian process with arbitrary prescribed mean and covariance. By exhibiting a Karhunen-Loève expansion for the integrated variance, and using sharp estimates of the density of a general second-chaos variable, we derive asymptotics for the asset price density for large or small values of the variable, and study the wing behavior of the implied volatility in these models. Our main result provides explicit expressions for the first five terms in the expansion of the implied volatility. The expressions for the leading three terms are simple, and based on three basic spectral-type statistics of the Gaussian process: the top eigenvalue of its covariance operator, the multiplicity of this eigenvalue, and the $L^{2}$ norm of the projection of the mean function on the top eigenspace. The fourth term requires knowledge of all eigen-elements. We present detailed numerics based on realistic liquidity assumptions in which classical and long-memory volatility models are calibrated based on our expansion.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2016

Mass at zero in the uncorrelated SABR model and implied volatility asymptotics

We study the mass at the origin in the uncorrelated SABR stochastic volatility model, and derive several tractable expressions, in particular when time becomes small or large. As an application--in fact the original motivation for this paper--we derive small-strike expansions for the implied volatility when the maturity becomes short or large. These formulae, by definition arbitrage free, allow us to quantify the impact of the mass at zero on existing implied volatility approximations, and in particular how correct/erroneous these approximations become.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2016

On the probability of hitting the boundary for Brownian motions on the SABR plane

Starting from the hyperbolic Brownian motion as a time-changed Brownian motion, we explore a set of probabilistic models--related to the SABR model in mathematical finance--which can be obtained by geometry-preserving transformations, and show how to translate the properties of the hyperbolic Brownian motion (density, probability mass, drift) to each particular model. Our main result is an explicit expression for the probability of any of these models hitting the boundary of their domains, the proof of which relies on the properties of the aforementioned transformations as well as time-change methods.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

Small-time asymptotics for Gaussian self-similar stochastic volatility models

We consider the class of self-similar Gaussian stochastic volatility models, and compute the small-time (near-maturity) asymptotics for the corresponding asset price density, the call and put pricing functions, and the implied volatilities. Unlike the well-known model-free behavior for extreme-strike asymptotics, small-time behaviors of the above depend heavily on the model, and require a control of the asset price density which is uniform with respect to the asset price variable, in order to translate into results for call prices and implied volatilities. Away from the money, we express the asymptotics explicitly using the volatility process' self-similarity parameter $H$, its first Karhunen-Loeve eigenvalue at time 1, and the latter's multiplicity. Several model-free estimators for $H$ result. At the money, a separate study is required: the asymptotics for small time depend instead on the integrated variance's moments of orders 1/2 and 3/2, and the estimator for $H$ sees an affine adjustment, while remaining model-free.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2016

The Jain-Monrad criterion for rough paths and applications to random Fourier series and non-Markovian Hörmander theory

We discuss stochastic calculus for large classes of Gaussian processes, based on rough path analysis. Our key condition is a covariance measure structure combined with a classical criterion due to Jain and Monrad [Ann. Probab. 11 (1983) 46-57]. This condition is verified in many examples, even in absence of explicit expressions for the covariance or Volterra kernels. Of special interest are random Fourier series, with covariance given as Fourier series itself, and we formulate conditions directly in terms of the Fourier coefficients. We also establish convergence and rates of convergence in rough path metrics of approximations to such random Fourier series. An application to SPDE is given. Our criterion also leads to an embedding result for Cameron-Martin paths and complementary Young regularity (CYR) of the Cameron-Martin space and Gaussian sample paths. CYR is known to imply Malliavin regularity and also Itô-like probabilistic estimates for stochastic integrals (resp., stochastic differential equations) despite their (rough) pathwise construction. At last, we give an application in the context of non-Markovian Hörmander theory.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

Tail behavior of sums and differences of log-normal random variables

We present sharp tail asymptotics for the density and the distribution function of linear combinations of correlated log-normal random variables, that is, exponentials of components of a correlated Gaussian vector. The asymptotic behavior turns out to depend on the correlation between the components, and the explicit solution is found by solving a tractable quadratic optimization problem. These results can be used either to approximate the probability of tail events directly, or to construct variance reduction procedures to estimate these probabilities by Monte Carlo methods. In particular, we propose an efficient importance sampling estimator for the left tail of the distribution function of the sum of log-normal variables. As a corollary of the tail asymptotics, we compute the asymptotics of the conditional law of a Gaussian random vector given a linear combination of exponentials of its components. In risk management applications, this finding can be used for the systematic construction of stress tests, which the financial institutions are required to conduct by the regulators. We also characterize the asymptotic behavior of the Value at Risk for log-normal portfolios in the case where the confidence level tends to one.

math.PR↗

arXiv2014

Distance to the line in the Heston model

The main object of study in the paper is the distance from a point to a line in the Riemannian manifold associated with the Heston model. We reduce the problem of computing such a distance to certain minimization problems for functions of one variable over finite intervals. One of the main ideas in this paper is to use a new system of coordinates in the Heston manifold and the level sets associated with this system. In the case of a vertical line, the formulas for the distance to the line are rather simple. For slanted lines, the formulas are more complicated, and a more subtle analysis of the level sets intersecting the given line is needed. We also find simple formulas for the Heston distance from a point to a level set. As a natural application, we use the formulas obtained in the present paper to compute the small maturity limit of the implied volatility in the correlated Heston model.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2014

The Gärtner-Ellis theorem, homogenization, and affine processes

We obtain a first order extension of the large deviation estimates in the Gärtner-Ellis theorem. In addition, for a given family of measures, we find a special family of functions having a similar Laplace principle expansion up to order one to that of the original family of measures. The construction of the special family of functions mentioned above is based on heat kernel expansions. Some of the ideas employed in the paper come from the theory of affine stochastic processes. For instance, we provide an explicit expansion with respect to the homogenization parameter of the rescaled cumulant generating function in the case of a generic continuous affine process. We also compute the coefficients in the homogenization expansion for the Heston model that is one of the most popular stock price models with stochastic volatility.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2014

Implied volatility of basket options at extreme strikes

In the paper, we characterize the asymptotic behavior of the implied volatility of a basket call option at large and small strikes in a variety of settings with increasing generality. First, we obtain an asymptotic formula with an error bound for the left wing of the implied volatility, under the assumption that the dynamics of asset prices are described by the multidimensional Black-Scholes model. Next, we find the leading term of asymptotics of the implied volatility in the case where the asset prices follow the multidimensional Black-Scholes model with time change by an independent increasing stochastic process. Finally, we deal with a general situation in which the dependence between the assets is described by a given copula function. In this setting, we obtain a model-free tail-wing formula that links the implied volatility to a special characteristic of the copula called the weak lower tail dependence function.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2014

Asymptotic analysis of stock price densities and implied volatilities in mixed stochastic models

In this paper, we obtain sharp asymptotic formulas with error estimates for the Mellin convolution of functions, and use these formulas to characterize the asymptotic behavior of marginal distribution densities of stock price processes in mixed stochastic models. Special examples of mixed models are jump-diffusion models and stochastic volatility models with jumps. We apply our general results to the Heston model with double exponential jumps, and make a detailed analysis of the asymptotic behavior of the stock price density, the call option pricing function, and the implied volatility in this model. We also obtain similar results for the Heston model with jumps distributed according to the NIG law.

q-fin.PR↗