Searcharxiv⌕ Search

arXiv subjects

Ariel Neufeld

Publications and source records attributed to Ariel Neufeld.

70 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

Supermartingale deflators in the absence of a numéraire

In this paper we study arbitrage theory of financial markets in the absence of a numéraire both in discrete and continuous time. In our main results, we provide a generalization of the classical equivalence between no unbounded profits with bounded risk (NUPBR) and the existence of a supermartingale deflator. To obtain the desired results, we introduce a new approach based on disintegration of the underlying probability space into spaces where the market crashes at deterministic times.

q-fin.MF↗

Nonlocal Bertrand and Cournot Mean Field Games with General Nonlinear Demand Schedule

In this article we prove the existence of classical solutions to a system of mean field games arising in the study of exhaustible resource production under market competition. Individual trajectories are modeled by a controlled diffusion process with jumps, which adds a nonlocal term to the PDE system. The assumptions on the Hamiltonian are sufficiently general to cover a large class of examples proposed in the literature on Bertrand and Cournot mean field games. Uniqueness also holds under a sufficient restriction on the structure of the Hamiltonian, which in practice amounts to a small upper bound on the substitutability of goods.

math.AP↗

Pathwise superhedging on prediction sets

In this paper we provide a pricing-hedging duality for the model-independent superhedging price with respect to a prediction set $Ξ\subseteq C[0,T]$, where the superhedging property needs to hold pathwise, but only for paths lying in $Ξ$. For any Borel measurable claim $ξ$ which is bounded from below, the superhedging price coincides with the supremum over all pricing functionals $\mathbb{E}_{\mathbb{Q}}[ξ]$ with respect to martingale measures $\mathbb{Q}$ concentrated on the prediction set $Ξ$. This allows to include beliefs in future paths of the price process expressed by the set $Ξ$, while eliminating all those which are seen as impossible. Moreover, we provide several examples to justify our setup.

q-fin.MF↗

Stochastic integration and differential equations for typical paths

The goal of this paper is to define stochastic integrals and to solve stochastic differential equations for typical paths taking values in a possibly infinite dimensional separable Hilbert space without imposing any probabilistic structure. In the spirit of [33, 37] and motivated by the pricing duality result obtained in [4] we introduce an outer measure as a variant of the pathwise minimal superhedging price where agents are allowed to trade not only in $ω$ but also in $\intω\,dω:=ω^2 -\langle ω\rangle$ and where they are allowed to include beliefs in future paths of the price process expressed by a prediction set. We then call a property to hold true on typical paths if the set of paths where the property fails is null with respect to our outer measure. It turns out that adding the second term $ω^2 -\langle ω\rangle$ in the definition of the outer measure enables to directly construct stochastic integrals which are continuous, even for typical paths taking values in an infinite dimensional separable Hilbert space. Moreover, when restricting to continuous paths whose quadratic variation is absolutely continuous with uniformly bounded derivative, a second construction of model-free stochastic integrals for typical paths is presented, which then allows to solve in a model-free way stochastic differential equations for typical paths.

math.PR↗

Nonconcave Robust Optimization with Discrete Strategies under Knightian Uncertainty

We study robust stochastic optimization problems in the quasi-sure setting in discrete-time. The strategies in the multi-period-case are restricted to those taking values in a discrete set. The optimization problems under consideration are not concave. We provide conditions under which a maximizer exists. The class of problems covered by our robust optimization problem includes optimal stopping and semi-static trading under Knightian uncertainty.

math.OC↗

Affine processes under parameter uncertainty

We develop a one-dimensional notion of affine processes under parameter uncertainty, which we call non-linear affine processes. This is done as follows: given a set of parameters for the process, we construct a corresponding non-linear expectation on the path space of continuous processes. By a general dynamic programming principle we link this non-linear expectation to a variational form of the Kolmogorov equation, where the generator of a single affine process is replaced by the supremum over all corresponding generators of affine processes with parameters in the parameter set. This non-linear affine process yields a tractable model for Knightian uncertainty, especially for modelling interest rates under ambiguity. We then develop an appropriate Ito-formula, the respective term-structure equations and study the non-linear versions of the Vasicek and the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model. Thereafter we introduce the non-linear Vasicek-CIR model. This model is particularly suitable for modelling interest rates when one does not want to restrict the state space a priori and hence the approach solves this modelling issue arising with negative interest rates.

math.PR↗

The Oracle of DLphi

We present a novel technique based on deep learning and set theory which yields exceptional classification and prediction results. Having access to a sufficiently large amount of labelled training data, our methodology is capable of predicting the labels of the test data almost always even if the training data is entirely unrelated to the test data. In other words, we prove in a specific setting that as long as one has access to enough data points, the quality of the data is irrelevant.

cs.LG↗

Buy-and-Hold Property for Fully Incomplete Markets when Super-replicating Markovian Claims

We show that when the price process $S$ represents a fully incomplete market, the optimal super-replication of any Markovian claim $g(S_T)$ with $g(\cdot)$ being nonnegative and lower semicontinuous is of buy-and-hold type. Since both (unbounded) stochastic volatility models and rough volatility models are examples of fully incomplete markets, one can interpret the buy-and-hold property when super-replicating Markovian claims as a natural phenomenon in incomplete markets.

q-fin.MF↗

Compactness Criterion for Semimartingale Laws and Semimartingale Optimal Transport

We provide a compactness criterion for the set of laws $\mathfrak{P}^{ac}_{sem}(Θ)$ on the Skorokhod space for which the canonical process $X$ is a semimartingale having absolutely continuous characteristics with differential characteristics taking values in some given set $Θ$ of Lévy triplets. Whereas boundedness of $Θ$ implies tightness of $\mathfrak{P}^{ac}_{sem}(Θ)$, closedness fails in general, even when choosing $Θ$ to be additionally closed and convex, as a sequence of purely discontinuous martingales may converge to a diffusion. To that end, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition that prevents the purely discontinuous martingale part in the canonical representation of $X$ to create a diffusion part in the limit. As a result, we obtain a sufficient criterion for $\mathfrak{P}^{ac}_{sem}(Θ)$ to be compact, which turns out to be also a necessary one if the geometry of $Θ$ is similar to a box on the product space. As an application, we consider a semimartingale optimal transport problem, where the transport plans are elements of $\mathfrak{P}^{ac}_{sem}(Θ)$. We prove the existence of an optimal transport law $\widehat{\mathbb{P}}$ and obtain a duality result extending the classical Kantorovich duality to this setup.

math.PR↗

Robust Utility Maximization in Discrete-Time Markets with Friction

We study a robust stochastic optimization problem in the quasi-sure setting in discrete-time. We show that under a lineality-type condition the problem admits a maximizer. This condition is implied by the no-arbitrage condition in models of financial markets. As a corollary, we obtain existence of an utility maximizer in the frictionless market model, markets with proportional transaction costs and also more general convex costs, like in the case of market impact.

q-fin.MF↗

Strong error analysis for stochastic gradient descent optimization algorithms

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) optimization algorithms are key ingredients in a series of machine learning applications. In this article we perform a rigorous strong error analysis for SGD optimization algorithms. In particular, we prove for every arbitrarily small $\varepsilon \in (0,\infty)$ and every arbitrarily large $p\in (0,\infty)$ that the considered SGD optimization algorithm converges in the strong $L^p$-sense with order $\frac{1}{2}-\varepsilon$ to the global minimum of the objective function of the considered stochastic approximation problem under standard convexity-type assumptions on the objective function and relaxed assumptions on the moments of the stochastic errors appearing in the employed SGD optimization algorithm. The key ideas in our convergence proof are, first, to employ techniques from the theory of Lyapunov-type functions for dynamical systems to develop a general convergence machinery for SGD optimization algorithms based on such functions, then, to apply this general machinery to concrete Lyapunov-type functions with polynomial structures, and, thereafter, to perform an induction argument along the powers appearing in the Lyapunov-type functions in order to achieve for every arbitrarily large $ p \in (0,\infty) $ strong $ L^p $-convergence rates. This article also contains an extensive review of results on SGD optimization algorithms in the scientific literature.

math.NA↗

Super-replication in Fully Incomplete Markets

In this work we introduce the notion of fully incomplete markets. We prove that for these markets the super-replication price coincide with the model free super-replication price. Namely, the knowledge of the model does not reduce the super-replication price. We provide two families of fully incomplete models: stochastic volatility models and rough volatility models. Moreover, we give several computational examples. Our approach is purely probabilistic.

q-fin.MF↗

Robust Utility Maximization with Lévy Processes

We study a robust portfolio optimization problem under model uncertainty for an investor with logarithmic or power utility. The uncertainty is specified by a set of possible Lévy triplets; that is, possible instantaneous drift, volatility and jump characteristics of the price process. We show that an optimal investment strategy exists and compute it in semi-closed form. Moreover, we provide a saddle point analysis describing a worst-case model.

q-fin.MF↗

Nonlinear Lévy Processes and their Characteristics

We develop a general construction for nonlinear Lévy processes with given characteristics. More precisely, given a set $Θ$ of Lévy triplets, we construct a sublinear expectation on Skorohod space under which the canonical process has stationary independent increments and a nonlinear generator corresponding to the supremum of all generators of classical Lévy processes with triplets in $Θ$. The nonlinear Lévy process yields a tractable model for Knightian uncertainty about the distribution of jumps for which expectations of Markovian functionals can be calculated by means of a partial integro-differential equation.

math.PR↗

Measurability of Semimartingale Characteristics with Respect to the Probability Law

Given a càdlàg process $X$ on a filtered measurable space, we construct a version of its semimartingale characteristics which is measurable with respect to the underlying probability law. More precisely, let $\mathfrak{P}_{sem}$ be the set of all probability measures $P$ under which $X$ is a semimartingale. We construct processes $(B^P,C,ν^P)$ which are jointly measurable in time, space, and the probability law $P$, and are versions of the semimartingale characteristics of $X$ under $P$ for each $P\in\mathfrak{P}_{sem}$. This result gives a general and unifying answer to measurability questions that arise in the context of quasi-sure analysis and stochastic control under the weak formulation.

math.PR↗