arXiv subjects

Aristeidis Amvrosiadis

Publications and source records attributed to Aristeidis Amvrosiadis.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Resolving the Assembly of Disk Galaxies from the Epoch of Reionisation to Cosmic Noon

Most of the mass and angular momentum of today's disk galaxies assembled at $z>1$. Yet, it remains unclear how these galaxies acquired their gas, how their baryons and dark matter coevolved, and how feedback and radial gas transport shaped their disks. Addressing these gaps requires resolved observations of cold gas, which carries most of the mass and angular momentum involved in galaxy assembly. By resolving CO and [C II] at kpc scales, ALMA revealed a surprising population of rotation-dominated disks, even at $z>2$, exhibiting kinematic signatures consistent with spiral arms, bars, and tidal tails. Yet, these studies are limited to massive ($M_\star>10^{10.5}$ M$_\odot$) and highly star-forming (SFRs$\gtrsim 100$ M$_\odot$yr$^{-1}$) galaxies, the progenitors of today's most massive elliptical and disk galaxies. To understand how most present-day spirals (like the Milky Way) assembled, it is crucial to resolve their low-mass progenitors, which dominate the star-forming galaxy population by number at $z>1$. Achieving this goal demands a tenfold increase in line sensitivity and hence a next-generation sub-/millimetre facility: ALMA2040. This leap in sensitivity will enable routine resolved studies of hundreds of $M_\star>10^9$ M$_\odot$ galaxies, including those on and below the main sequence of star-forming galaxies, providing representative, statistical galaxy samples with sub-kpc constraints on the cold gas kinematics and morphology. By uniquely providing resolved CO, [C I], and [C II] observations across $z=1-6$, ALMA2040 will trace a much larger fraction of the cold-gas reservoir than is accessible today, extending resolved studies from rare massive and/or lensed systems to representative galaxy populations. In this way, ALMA2040 will transform our understanding of how galaxy disks formed and evolved.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

Tracing small-scale structure formation through cosmic time with strong gravitational lensing: A case for a next-generation sub-millimetre/millimetre interferometer

The nature of dark matter and the growth of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) remain major open questions in modern astrophysics. Both leave a key signature in an overlapping, largely unexplored mass range: $<10^7$ M$_{\odot}$ dark haloes and wandering black holes. These may be undetectable directly, but detectable through gravitational perturbation of strongly lensed images, and partly or entirely distinguishable from one another through lensing data alone. We demonstrate through realistic simulations that a 255-element sub-mm/mm interferometer could probe this critical mass regime, detecting gravitational perturbations in strongly lensed dusty star-forming galaxies (DSFGs) from objects down to at least $10^5$ M$_{\odot}$. Combined with lens-galaxy characterisation from the European Extremely Large Telescope (ELT), which strengthens the physical interpretation of detected perturbers, and the unprecedented lens samples expected from Euclid and the Square Kilometre Array (SKA), this facility could deliver a census of low-mass dark matter haloes and wandering massive black holes across cosmic time.

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arXiv2026

Detection of a dark matter subhalo in the strongly lensed system PJ011646

We present a strong lensing analysis of the system PJ011646 using high-resolution ($\sim$0.1 arcsec) Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) dust-continuum observations to test for the presence of dark matter substructures. The lens mass distribution is modelled with an elliptical power law and third- and fourth-order multipoles (PL+MP; $m=3,4$), plus external shear. The multipoles have amplitudes of $\simeq$1.5 per cent of the convergence, consistent with nearby early-type galaxies, and improve the fit by $Δ\ln Z = 52.1$ relative to a pure PL model. Using this best-fitting macromodel, we perform a grid-based subhalo search in the image plane, parametrising the perturber as a spherical NFW. A subhalo in two locations in the image plane improves the fit by $Δ\ln Z>10$. Both correspond to the same location in the source plane, so they are partially degenerate; follow-up analysis suggests that only one is physically real. This is a subhalo of mass $M_{200} = {2.78}_{-0.66}^{+0.43} \times 10^{10} \, M_\odot$ and concentration $c_{200} = 30_{-7}^{+5}$, detected at $\sim$5.8$σ$ significance (relative to the PL+MP). This concentration is consistent with that expected for a typical tidally stripped Navarro-Frenk-White subhalo. The enclosed projected mass is most tightly constrained within a radius of 2 kpc, where we infer $M_{\rm sub} = {3.57}_{-0.14}^{+0.16}\times 10^9 \, M_\odot$. From grid cells consistent with no detection ($Δ\ln Z < 10$), we derive limits on the minimum subhalo mass that could have been detected at $3σ$ significance, finding $M_{200} \approx 8 \times 10^{8} \, M_\odot$ in the most sensitive regions of the lensed arcs. This demonstrates that ALMA continuum imaging at sub-arcsecond resolution can probe dark matter substructure in a mass regime where cold and warm dark matter models predict different abundances of subhalos.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

Revealing the nature of the starburst galaxies in the $z=2.4$ overdensity HATLAS J0849

Today's most massive ellipticals are proposed to originate from starbursting galaxies in $z\gtrsim2$ overdensities. To discern what triggers these starbursts, and their $z=0$ descendants, we performed a detailed case study of five gas-rich galaxies in the $z=2.41$ overdensity, HATLAS J084933.4+021443. Using 0.15" resolution CO(4-3), [C I] 1-0, and dust-continuum observations, we characterised their cold gas morphology and kinematics. We find two rotating discs, W and C, both exhibiting non-axisymmetric radial gas motions (consistent with bars). Of the two extreme starbursts, W is a lopsided, rotation-dominated disc with a rotation velocity of $\sim520$ km s$^{-1}$, whereas T is most likely a late-stage merger. Combined with recent studies, we find that $\gtrsim42\%$ of gas-rich, massive starbursts in overdensities are rotation-dominated discs, a fraction not yet systematically reproduced by galaxy evolution models. Beyond $z=1$, disc galaxies with rotation velocities of $>400$ km s$^{-1}$ reside almost exclusively in overdensities, consistent with early mass assembly in dense environments. By comparing to local early-type galaxies with cold gas discs, we confirm that these systems already reside in halos comparable to the most massive $z\sim0$ ellipticals at the centres of groups and clusters. Despite their extreme star-formation rates, these discs lie on the same $σ-$SFR locus as lower-SFR field galaxies, implying that stellar feedback remains the dominant turbulence driver. We postulate that this is because inflowing gas is effectively transported through ordered streaming, such that only a small fraction of kinetic energy feeds disc-wide turbulence.

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arXiv2026

Measuring the Stellar-to-Halo Mass Relation at $\sim10^{10}$ Solar masses, using forthcoming space-based imaging of galaxy-galaxy strong lenses

The stellar-to-halo mass relation (SHMR) is central to understanding the co-evolution of galaxies and their host dark matter haloes, yet it remains weakly constrained for dwarf galaxies owing to their faintness, especially beyond the Local Group. Strong gravitational lensing offers a unique probe of the SHMR at sub-galactic scales and cosmological distances, as the masses of subhalos within the main lens can be inferred from the perturbations they imprint on lensed images. Anticipating the discovery of $\sim10^5$ galaxy--galaxy strong lenses by forthcoming facilities such as \textit{Euclid}, we perform an end-to-end simulation to forecast \textit{Euclid}'s constraints on the SHMR at the halo mass scale of $\sim10^{10}\,\mathrm{M}_\odot$. We generate mock \textit{Euclid} VIS images of lens systems hosting a fiducial $3\times10^{10}\,\mathrm{M}_\odot$ subhalo and vary its properties to assess the robustness of mass inference. We find that \textit{Euclid}'s angular resolution cannot break the intrinsic mass--concentration degeneracy of subhaloes, nor deblend the light of satellite galaxies (when present) associated with them, leading to biased inferred halo masses. These limitations are overcome with high-resolution follow-up imaging from facilities such as the \textit{Hubble Space Telescope}, enabling accurate halo-mass measurements. We forecast that a statistical sample of $\sim100$ such systems, combining lensing-derived halo masses with stellar masses from photometric SED fitting, can constrain the SHMR at dwarf-galaxy scales with a precision of $\sim0.05$~dex in halo mass and $\sim0.03$~dex in stellar mass, enabling powerful tests of galaxy formation theories.

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arXiv2026

Probing Dark Matter Substructures with Free-Form Modelling: A Case Study of the `Jackpot' Strong Lens

Characterising the population and internal structure of sub-galactic halos is critical for constraining the nature of dark matter. These halos can be detected near galaxies that act as strong gravitational lenses with extended arcs, as they perturb the shapes of the arcs. However, this method is subject to false-positive detections and systematic uncertainties, particularly degeneracies between an individual halo and larger-scale asymmetries in the distribution of lens mass. We present a new free-form lens modelling code, developed within the framework of the open-source software \texttt{PyAutoLens}, to address these challenges. Our method models mass perturbations that cannot be captured by parametric models as pixelized potential corrections and suppresses unphysical solutions via a Matérn regularisation scheme that is inspired by Gaussian process regression. This approach enables the recovery of diverse mass perturbations, including subhalos, line-of-sight halos, external shear, and multipole components that represent the complex angular mass distribution of the lens galaxy, such as boxiness/diskiness. Additionally, our fully Bayesian framework objectively infers hyperparameters associated with the regularisation of pixelized sources and potential corrections, eliminating the need for manual fine-tuning. By applying our code to the well-known `Jackpot' lens system, SLACS0946+1006, we robustly detect a highly concentrated subhalo that challenges the standard cold dark matter model. This study represents the first attempt to independently reveal the mass distribution of a subhalo using a fully free-form approach.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Hiding behind a curtain of dust: Gas and dust properties of an ultra-luminous strongly-lensed z = 3.75 galaxy behind the Milky Way disk

We present a detailed analysis of J154506, a strongly lensed submillimeter galaxy behind the Lupus-I molecular cloud, and characterisation of its physical properties using a combination of new and archival data, including VLT/MUSE and FORS2 optical data. We identify two high-significance (SNR>5) emission lines at 97.0 and 145.5 GHz, corresponding to CO(4-3) and CO(6-5), respectively, in the spectral scans from the Atacama Compact Array and the Large Millimetre Telescope and the [CII] 158~$μ$m fine-structure line at 400~GHz using the Atacama Pathfinder Experiment. These detections yield a spectroscopic redshift of $z_{\rm{spec}}=3.7515\pm0.0005$. We also report the detection of [CI], HCN(4-3), and two H$_2\rm{O}^+$ transitions, further confirming the redshift and providing insights into J154506's physical properties. By modeling sub-arcsecond resolution (0.75) ALMA Band 6 and 7 continuum data in the uv-plane, we derive an average magnification factor of $6.0\pm0.4$ and our analysis reveals a relatively cold dust (38K) in a starburst ($\sim900~\rm{M}_{\odot}yr^{-1}$) galaxy with a high intrinsic dust mass ($\sim2.5\times10^{9}~\rm{M}_{\odot}$) and infrared (IR) luminosity ($\sim6\times10^{12}~\rm{L}_{\odot}$). The non-local thermodynamic equilibrium radiative transfer modelling of the joint dust SED and CO line excitation suggests the dust continuum emission is primarily associated with relatively diffuse regions with molecular gas densities of $10^2-10^4\rm{cm}^{-3}$, rather than compact, high-pressure environments typical of extreme starbursts or AGNs. This is supported by the close-to-unity ratio between the dust and gas kinetic temperatures, which argues against highly energetic heating mechanisms. The CO excitation ladder peaks close to CO(5-4) and is dominated by slightly denser molecular gas.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

The "Little Dark Dot": Evidence for Self-interacting Dark Matter in the Strong Lens SDSS J0946+1006?

Previous studies, based on precise modeling of a gravitationally lensing image, have identified what may be an extremely compact, dark perturber in the well-known lensing system SDSS J0946+1006 (the "Jackpot"). Its remarkable compactness challenges the standard cold dark matter (CDM) paradigm. In this paper, we explore whether such a compact perturber could be explained as a core-collapse halo described by the self-interacting dark matter (SIDM) model. Using the isothermal Jeans method, we compute the density profiles of core-collapse halos across a range of masses. Our comparison with observations indicates that a core-collapse halo has an inner density profile and mass enclosed within 1 kpc that fit the data well, but only if the halo has a total mass $\sim10^{11}~{\rm M_{\odot}}$. While a halo of this mass should host a detectable galaxy, the current observational upper limit on the perturber's luminosity remains uncertain. Resolving whether or not the data support the presence of a core-collapse SIDM halo therefore requires future deep observations to measure its luminosity.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

The COSMOS-Web Lens Survey (COWLS) III: forecasts versus data

We compare forecasts for the abundance and properties of strong gravitational lenses in the COSMOS-Web survey, a $0.54$ deg$^2$ survey of the COSMOS field using the NIRCam and MIRI instruments aboard JWST, with the first catalogue of strong lens candidates identified in the observed NIRCam data, COWLS. We modify the lenspop package to produce a forecast for strong lensing in COSMOS-Web. We add a new mock galaxy catalogue to use as the source population, as well as the COSMOS-Web survey specifications, including the transmission data for the four NIRCam filters used. We forecast 107 strong lenses can be detected in COSMOS-Web across all bands, assuming complete subtraction of the lens galaxy light. The majority of the lenses are forecast to have small Einstein radii ($θ_{\rm E} < 1$ arcsecond) and lie at redshifts between $0 < z <2$, whilst the source redshift distribution peaks at $z\sim 3$ and has a long tail extending up to $z \sim 11$, unambiguously showing that strong lensing in JWST can probe the entirety of the epoch of reionisation. We compare our forecast with the distributions of Einstein radii, lens photometric redshifts, and lens and source magnitudes in the observed lenses, finding that whilst the forecast and observed Einstein radii distributions match, the redshifts and magnitudes do not. The observed lens redshift distribution peaks at a slightly lower redshift than the forecast one, whilst the lens magnitudes are systematically brighter in the observed data than in the forecast.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

The COSMOS-Web Lens Survey (COWLS) I: Discovery of >100 high redshift strong lenses in contiguous JWST imaging

We present the COSMOS-Web Lens Survey (COWLS), a sample of over 100 strong lens candidates from the $0.54$\,deg$^2$ COSMOS-Web survey, discovered using exquisite James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) imaging across four wavebands. Following two rounds of visual inspection, over 100 candidates were ranked as `high confidence' or `likely' by at least $50\%$ of inspectors. The COWLS sample has several notable properties: (i) magnified source galaxies spanning redshifts $z \sim 0.1$ to $z \sim 9$, which therefore extend into the epoch of reionisation; (ii) the highest-redshift lens galaxies known, pushing galaxy density profile evolution studies beyond $z \sim 2$; (iii) all lenses are distributed within a contiguous $0.54$\,deg$^2$ region, allowing for joint strong and weak lensing analyses; and (iv) a subset exhibits lensed source emission ray-traced near the lens galaxy centers, enabling studies of supermassive black holes and dust absorption. A key innovation of our approach is the use of lens modelling to aid in identifying lenses that may otherwise be missed. This paper is accompanied by the first COWLS public release, providing JWST NIRCam imaging in four bands, lens models, pixelized source reconstructions and lens redshift estimates : https://github.com/Jammy2211/COWLS_COSMOS_Web_Lens_Survey

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

Not so dark, not so dense: an alternative explanation for the lensing subhalo in SDSSJ0946+1006

Previous studies of the strong lens system SDSSJ0946+1006 have reported a dark matter subhalo with an unusually high central density, potentially challenging the standard cold dark matter (CDM) paradigm. However, these analyses assumed the subhalo to be completely dark, neglecting the possibility that it may host a faint galaxy. In this work, we revisit the lensing analysis of SDSSJ0946+1006, explicitly modelling the subhalo as a luminous satellite. Incorporating light from the perturber broadens the range of allowed subhalo properties, revealing solutions with significantly lower central densities that are consistent with CDM expectations. The inferred luminosity of the satellite also aligns with predictions from hydrodynamical simulations. While high-concentration subhaloes remain allowed, they are no longer statistically preferred. The luminous subhalo model yields a better fit to the data, while also offering a more plausible explanation that is in line with theoretical expectations. We validate our methodology using mock data, demonstrating that neglecting subhalo light can lead to inferred mass distributions that are artificially compact.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Galaxy Mass Modelling from Multi-Wavelength JWST Strong Lens Analysis: Dark Matter Substructure, Angular Mass Complexity, or Both?

We analyze two galaxy-scale strong gravitational lenses, SPT0418-47 and SPT2147-50, using JWST NIRCam imaging across multiple filters. To account for angular complexity in the lens mass distribution, we introduce multipole perturbations with orders $m=1, 3, 4$. Our results show strong evidence for angular mass complexity in SPT2147, with multipole strengths of 0.3-1.7 $\%$ for $m=3, 4$ and 2.4-9.5 $\%$ for $m=1$, while SPT0418 shows no such preference. We also test lens models that include a dark matter substructure, finding a strong preference for a substructure in SPT2147-50 with a Bayes factor (log-evidence change) of $\sim 60$ when multipoles are not included. Including multipoles reduces the Bayes factor to $\sim 11$, still corresponding to a $5σ$ detection of a subhalo with an NFW mass of $\log_{10}(M_{200}/M_{\odot}) = 10.87\substack{+0.53\\ -0.71}$. While SPT2147-50 may represent the fourth detection of a dark matter substructure in a strong lens, further analysis is needed to confirm that the signal is not due to systematics associated with the lens mass model.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

The COSMOS-Web ring: Spectroscopic confirmation of the background source at z = 5.1

We report the spectroscopic confirmation of the background source of the most distant Einstein ring known to date, the COSMOS-Web ring. This system consists of a complete Einstein ring at $z=5.1$, lensed by a massive early-type galaxy at $z\sim2$. The redshift $z=5.1043\pm0.0004$ is unambiguously identified with our NOEMA and Keck/MOSFIRE spectroscopy, where the NOEMA observations reveal the CO(4-3) and CO(5-4) lines at $>8\,σ$, and the MOSFIRE data detect [O\textsc{ii}] at $\sim 6\,σ$. Using multi-wavelength photometry spanning near-infrared to radio bands, we find that the lensed galaxy is a dust-obscured starburst ($M_{\star} \sim 1.8\times10^{10}\,{\rm M_{\odot}}$, ${\rm SFR_{IR}\sim 60\,{\rm M_{\odot}} ~yr^{-1}}$) with high star-formation efficiency (gas depletion time $τ_{\rm dep}<100~$Myr) as indicated by the [C\textsc{i}](1-0) non-detection. The redshift confirmation revalidates that the total lens mass budget within the Einstein radius is fully accounted for by the stellar and dark matter components, without the need of modifying the initial mass function or dark matter distribution profile. This work paves the way for detailed studies and future follow-ups of this unique lensing system, providing an ideal laboratory for studying mass distribution at $z\sim2$ and physical conditions of star formation at $z\sim5$.

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arXiv2024

SCUBADive I: JWST+ALMA Analysis of 289 sub-millimeter galaxies in COSMOS-Web

JWST has enabled detecting and spatially resolving the heavily dust-attenuated stellar populations of sub-millimeter galaxies, revealing detail that was previously inaccessible. In this work we construct a sample of 289 sub-millimeter galaxies with detailed joint ALMA and JWST constraints in the COSMOS field. Sources are originally selected using the SCUBA-2 instrument and have archival ALMA observations from various programs. Their JWST NIRCam imaging is from COSMOS-Web and PRIMER. We extract multi-wavelength photometry in a manner that leverages the unprecedented near-infrared spatial resolution of JWST, and fit the data with spectral energy distribution models to derive photometric redshifts, stellar masses, star-formation rates and optical attenuation. The sample has an average z=2.6, A_V=2.5, SFR=270 and log(M*)=11.1. There are 81 (30%) galaxies that have no previous optical/near-infrared detections, including 75% of the z>4 sub-sample (n=28). The faintest observed near-infrared sources have the highest redshifts and largest A_V=4. In a preliminary morphology analysis we find that ~10% of our sample exhibit spiral arms and 5% host stellar bars, with one candidate bar found at z>3. Finally, we find that the clustering of JWST galaxies within 10 arcseconds of a sub-mm galaxy is a factor of 2 greater than what is expected based on either random clustering or the distribution of sources around any red galaxy irrespective of a sub-mm detection.

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arXiv2024

Lopsidedness in Early-Type Galaxies: the role of the $m=1$ multipole in Isophote Fitting and Strong Lens Modelling

The surface brightness distribution of massive early-type galaxies (ETGs) often deviates from a perfectly elliptical shape. To capture these deviations in their isophotes during an ellipse fitting analysis, Fourier modes of order $m = 3, 4$ are often used. In such analyses the centre of each ellipse is treated as a free parameter, which may result in offsets from the centre of light, particularly for ellipses in the outer regions. This complexity is not currently accounted for in the mass models used in either strong gravitational lensing or galactic dynamical studies. In this work, we adopt a different approach, using the $m=1$ Fourier mode to account for this complexity while keeping the centres of all perturbed ellipses fixed, showing that it fits the data equally well. We applied our method to the distribution of light emission to a sample of ETGs from the MASSIVE survey and found that the majority have low $m_1$ amplitudes, below 2 percent. Five out of the 30 galaxies we analysed have high $m_1$ amplitudes, ranging from 2 to 10 percent in the outer parts ($R \gtrsim 3$ kpc), all of which have a physically associated companion. Based on our findings, we advocate the use of the $m=1$ multipole in the mass models used in strong lensing and dynamical studies, particularly for galaxies with recent or ongoing interactions.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2024

The onset of bar formation in a massive galaxy at $z \sim 3.8$

We examine the morphological and kinematical properties of SPT-2147, a strongly lensed, massive, dusty, star-forming galaxy at $z = 3.762$. Combining data from JWST, HST, and ALMA, we study the galaxy's stellar emission, dust continuum and gas properties. The imaging reveals a central bar structure in the stars and gas embedded within an extended disc with a spiral arm-like feature. The kinematics confirm the presence of the bar and of the regularly rotating disc. Dynamical modeling yields a dynamical mass, ${M}_{\rm dyn} = (9.7 \pm 2.0) \times 10^{10}$ ${\rm M}_{\odot}$, and a maximum rotational velocity to velocity dispersion ratio, $V / σ= 9.8 \pm 1.2$. From multi-band imaging we infer, via SED fitting, a stellar mass, ${M}_{\star} = (6.3 \pm 0.9) \times 10^{10}$ $\rm{M}_{\odot}$, and a star formation rate, ${\rm SFR} = 781 \pm 99$ ${\rm M_{\odot} yr^{-1}}$, after correcting for magnification. Combining these measurements with the molecular gas mass, we derive a baryonic-to-total mass ratio of ${M}_{\rm bar} / {M}_{\rm dyn} = 0.9 \pm 0.2$ within 4.0 kpc. This finding suggests that the formation of bars in galaxies begins earlier in the history of the Universe than previously thought and can also occur in galaxies with elevated gas fractions.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

FLASH: Faint Lenses from Associated Selection with Herschel

We report the ALMA Band 7 observations of 86 Herschel sources that likely contain gravitationally-lensed galaxies. These sources are selected with relatively faint 500 $μ$m flux densities between 15 to 85 mJy in an effort to characterize the effect of lensing across the entire million-source Herschel catalogue. These lensed candidates were identified by their close proximity to bright galaxies in the near-infrared VISTA Kilo-Degree Infrared Galaxy Survey (VIKING) survey. Our high-resolution observations (0.15 arcsec) confirm 47 per cent of the initial candidates as gravitational lenses, while lensing cannot be excluded across the remaining sample. We find average lensing masses (log M/M$_{\odot}$ = 12.9 $\pm$ 0.5) in line with previous experiments, although direct observations might struggle to identify the most massive foreground lenses across the remaining 53 per cent of the sample, particularly for lenses with larger Einstein radii. Our observations confirm previous indications that more lenses exist at low flux densities than expected from strong galaxy-galaxy lensing models alone, where the excess is likely due to additional contributions of cluster lenses and weak lensing. If we apply our method across the total 660 sqr. deg. H-ATLAS field, it would allow us to robustly identify 3000 gravitational lenses across the 660 square degree Herschel ATLAS fields.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

Strong gravitational lensing's 'external shear' is not shear

The distribution of mass in galaxy-scale strong gravitational lenses is often modelled as an elliptical power law plus 'external shear', which notionally accounts for neighbouring galaxies and cosmic shear. We show that it does not. Except in a handful of rare systems, the best-fit values of external shear do not correlate with independent measurements of shear: from weak lensing in 45 Hubble Space Telescope images, or in 50 mock images of lenses with complex distributions of mass. Instead, the best-fit shear is aligned with the major or minor axis of 88% of lens galaxies; and the amplitude of the external shear increases if that galaxy is disky. We conclude that 'external shear' attached to a power law model is not physically meaningful, but a fudge to compensate for lack of model complexity. Since it biases other model parameters that are interpreted as physically meaningful in several science analyses (e.g. measuring galaxy evolution, dark matter physics or cosmological parameters), we recommend that future studies of galaxy-scale strong lensing should employ more flexible mass models.

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