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Aritra Majumdar

Publications and source records attributed to Aritra Majumdar.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

Limit Theorems for step reinforced random walks with regularly varying memory

We study and prove limit theorems for a class of generalized step reinforced random walks. At every step, the walker chooses a step from the past with probability proportional to a given regularly varying sequence, called the memory sequence. Then it either repeats the chosen step with probability $p$ or uses an innovation with probability $1-p$. We provide functional law of large numbers for the linearly scaled process, viewed at a linearly scaled time. The convergence is almost sure and in $L^1$ under finite mean assumption of the innovation steps. A stronger finite variance assumption gives us $L^2$ convergence. Under finite variance assumption, the suitably scaled walk exhibits a novel phase transition based on the boundedness of a sequence related to the memory sequence. For the subcritical regime, the scaling is diffusive, while it is superdiffusive otherwise. The most interesting contribution of the paper is in the critical regime. We show that the process convergence of the scaled walk, viewed in the linear time scale, can be either in distribution or almost sure, depending on the choice of the memory sequence. We argue that the exponential time scale for the critical regime, traditionally used in the literature, is not natural and we obtain the asymptotic behavior under the linear time scale. In addition, we provide novel scalings other than $\sqrt{n \log n}$ in the critical regime. We also raise some open problems.

math.PR

From Text to Map: A System Dynamics Bot for Constructing Causal Loop Diagrams

We introduce and test the System Dynamics Bot, a computer program leveraging a large language model to automate the creation of causal loop diagrams from textual data. To evaluate its performance, we ensembled two distinct databases. The first dataset includes 20 causal loop diagrams and associated texts sourced from the system dynamics literature. The second dataset comprises responses from 30 participants to a vignette, along with causal loop diagrams coded by three system dynamics modelers. The bot uses textual data and successfully identifies approximately sixty percent of the links between variables and feedback loops in both datasets. This paper outlines our approach, provides examples, and presents evaluation results. We discuss encountered challenges and implemented solutions in developing the System Dynamics Bot. The bot can facilitate extracting mental models from textual data and improve model building processes. Moreover, the two datasets can serve as a testbed for similar programs.

cs.HC

Generative Agent-Based Modeling: Unveiling Social System Dynamics through Coupling Mechanistic Models with Generative Artificial Intelligence

We discuss the emerging new opportunity for building feedback-rich computational models of social systems using generative artificial intelligence. Referred to as Generative Agent-Based Models (GABMs), such individual-level models utilize large language models such as ChatGPT to represent human decision-making in social settings. We provide a GABM case in which human behavior can be incorporated in simulation models by coupling a mechanistic model of human interactions with a pre-trained large language model. This is achieved by introducing a simple GABM of social norm diffusion in an organization. For educational purposes, the model is intentionally kept simple. We examine a wide range of scenarios and the sensitivity of the results to several changes in the prompt. We hope the article and the model serve as a guide for building useful diffusion models that include realistic human reasoning and decision-making.

cs.AI

Epidemic Modeling with Generative Agents

This study offers a new paradigm of individual-level modeling to address the grand challenge of incorporating human behavior in epidemic models. Using generative artificial intelligence in an agent-based epidemic model, each agent is empowered to make its own reasonings and decisions via connecting to a large language model such as ChatGPT. Through various simulation experiments, we present compelling evidence that generative agents mimic real-world behaviors such as quarantining when sick and self-isolation when cases rise. Collectively, the agents demonstrate patterns akin to multiple waves observed in recent pandemics followed by an endemic period. Moreover, the agents successfully flatten the epidemic curve. This study creates potential to improve dynamic system modeling by offering a way to represent human brain, reasoning, and decision making.

cs.AI