arXiv subjects

Arman Shafieloo

Publications and source records attributed to Arman Shafieloo.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Model selection and parameter estimation using the iterative smoothing method

We compute the distribution of likelihoods from the non-parametric iterative smoothing method over a set of mock Pantheon-like type Ia supernova datasets. We use this likelihood distribution to test whether typical dark energy models are consistent with the data and to perform parameter estimation. In this approach, the consistency of a model and the data is determined without the need for comparison with another alternative model. Simulating future WFIRST-like data, we study type II errors and show how confidently we can distinguish different dark energy models using this non-parametric approach.

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arXiv2020

The clustering of the SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey DR16 luminous red galaxy and emission line galaxy samples: cosmic distance and structure growth measurements using multiple tracers in configuration space

We perform a multi-tracer analysis using the complete Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV (SDSS-IV) extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) DR16 luminous red galaxy (LRG) and the DR16 emission line galaxy (ELG) samples in the configuration space, and successfully detect a cross correlation between the two samples, and find the growth rate to be $fσ_8=0.342 \pm 0.085$ ($\sim25$ per cent accuracy) from the cross sample alone. We perform a joint measurement of the baryonic acoustic oscillation (BAO) and redshift space distortion (RSD) parameters at a single effective redshift of $z_{\rm eff}= 0.77$, using the auto- and cross-correlation functions of the LRG and ELG samples, and find that the comoving angular diameter distance $D_M(z_{\rm eff})/r_d = 18.85\pm 0.38$, the Hubble distance $D_H(z_{\rm eff})/r_d = 19.64 \pm 0.57$, and $fσ_8(z_{\rm eff}) = 0.432 \pm 0.038$, which is consistent with a $Λ$CDM model at $68\%$ CL. Compared to the single-tracer analysis on the LRG sample, the Figure of Merit (FoM) of $α_{\perp}, α_{||}$ and $fσ_8$ is improved by a factor of $1.11$ in our multi-tracer analysis, and in particular, the statistical uncertainty of $fσ_8$ is reduced by $11.6 \%$.

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arXiv2020

Evidence for Emergent Dark Energy

We introduce a generalised form of an emergent dark energy model with one degree of freedom for the dark energy sector that has the flexibility to include both $Λ$CDM model as well as the Phenomenologically Emergent Dark Energy (PEDE) model proposed by Li & Shafieloo (2019) as two of its special limits. The free parameter for the dark energy sector, namely $Δ$, has the value of $0$ for the case of the $Λ$ and $1$ for the case of PEDE. Fitting the introduced parametric form to Planck CMB data and most recent $H_0$ results from local observations of Cepheids and Supernovae, we show that the $Δ=0$ associated with the $Λ$CDM model would fall out of 4$σ$ confidence limits of the derived posterior of the $Δ$ parameter. Moreover, $H_0$ tensions will be alleviated with emergent dark energy model and this model can satisfy the combination of Planck CMB data and local $H_0$ observations with $Δ{\rm{DIC}}\,=\,-2.88$ compared with $\LCDM$ model.

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arXiv2020

Constraints on features in the inflationary potential from future Euclid data

With Planck cosmic microwave background observations, we established the spectral amplitude and tilt of the primordial power spectrum. Evidence of a red spectral tilt ($n_\mathrm{s}=0.96$) at $8σ$ provides strong support for the inflationary mechanism, especially the slow-roll of the effective scalar field in its nearly flat potential as the generator of scalar primordial perturbations. With the next generation of large-scale structure surveys, we expect to probe primordial physics beyond the overall shape and amplitude of the main, smooth and slowly-changing part of the inflaton potential. Using the specifications for the upcoming Euclid survey, we investigate to what extent we can constrain the inflation potential beyond its established slow-roll behaviour. We provide robust forecasts with Euclid and Planck mock data from nine fiducial power spectra that contain suppression and wiggles at different cosmological scales, using the Wiggly Whipped Inflation (WWI) framework to generate these features in the primordial spectrum. We include both Euclid cosmic shear and galaxy clustering, with a conservative cut-off for non-linear scales. Using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations, we obtain an improvement in constraints in the WWI potential, as well an improvement for the background cosmology parameters. We find that apart from improving the constraints on the overall scale of the inflationary potential by 40-50 per cent, we can also identify oscillations in the primordial spectrum that are present within intermediate to small scales ($k\sim0.01-0.2\,\mathrm{Mpc^{-1}}$).

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arXiv2020

Defying the laws of Gravity I: model-independent reconstruction of the Universe expansion from growth data

Using redshift space distortion data, we perform model-independent reconstructions of the growth history of matter inhomogeneity in the expanding Universe using two methods: crossing statistics and Gaussian processes. We then reconstruct the corresponding history of the Universe background expansion and fit it to type Ia supernovae data, putting constraints on $(Ω_\mathrm{m,0},σ_{8,0})$. The results obtained are consistent with the concordance flat-$Λ$CDM model and General Relativity as the gravity theory given the current quality of the inhomogeneity growth data.

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arXiv2020

Inflation Wars: A New Hope

We explore a class of primordial power spectra that can fit the observed anisotropies in the cosmic microwave background well and that predicts a value for the Hubble parameter consistent with the local measurement of $H_0 = 74$ km/s/Mpc. This class of primordial power spectrum consists of a continuous deformation between the best-fit power law primordial power spectrum and the primordial power spectrum derived from the modified Richardson-Lucy deconvolution algorithm applied to the $C_\ell$s of best-fit power law primordial power spectrum. We find that linear interpolation half-way between the power law and modified Richardson-Lucy power spectra fits the Planck data better than the best-fit $Λ$CDM by $Δ\log\mathcal{L} = 2.5$. In effect, this class of deformations of the primordial power spectra offer a new dimension which is correlated with the Hubble parameter. This correlation causes the best-fit value for $H_0$ to shift and the uncertainty to expand to $H_0 = 70.2 \pm 1.2$ km/s/Mpc. When considering the Planck dataset combined with the Cepheid $H_0$ measurement, the best-fit $H_0$ becomes $H_0 = 71.8 \pm 0.9$ km/s/Mpc. We also compute a Bayes factor of $\log K = 5.7$ in favor of the deformation model.

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arXiv2020

Determining Model-independent $H_0$ and Consistency Tests

We determine the Hubble constant $H_0$ precisely ($2.3\%$ uncertainty) in a manner independent of cosmological model through Gaussian process regression, using strong lensing and supernova data. Strong gravitational lensing of a variable source can provide a time-delay distance $D_{Δt}$ and angular diameter distance to the lens $D_{\rm{d}}$. These absolute distances can anchor Type Ia supernovae, which give an excellent constraint on the shape of the distance-redshift relation. Updating our previous results to use the H0LiCOW program's milestone dataset consisting of six lenses, four of which have both $D_{Δt}$ and $D_{\rm{d}}$ measurements, we obtain $H_0=72.8_{-1.7}^{+1.6}\rm{\ km/s/Mpc}$ for a flat universe and $H_0=77.3_{-3.0}^{+2.2}\rm{\ km/s/Mpc}$ for a non-flat universe. We carry out several consistency checks on the data and find no statistically significant tensions, though a noticeable redshift dependence persists in a particular systematic manner that we investigate. Speculating on the possibility that this trend of derived Hubble constant with lens distance is physical, we show how this can arise through modified gravity light propagation, which would also impact the weak lensing $σ_8$ tension.

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arXiv2020

Reconciling $H_0$ tension in a six parameter space?

Consistent observations indicate that some of the important cosmological parameters measured through the local observations are in huge tension with their measurements from the global observations (within the minimal $Λ$CDM cosmology). The tensions in those cosmological parameters have been found to be either weakened or reconciled with the introduction of new degrees of freedom that effectively increases the underlying parameter space compared to the minimal $Λ$CDM cosmology. It might be interesting to investigate the above tensions within the context of an emergent dark energy scenario proposed recently by Li and Shafieloo~\cite{Li:2019yem}. We find that the tension on $H_0$ is clearly alleviated within 68\% confidence level with an improvement of the $χ^2$ for CMB, for the above emergent dark energy model having only six free parameters similar to the spatially flat $Λ$CDM model. The tension on $H_0$ is still alleviated for every combined datasets considered in the work, however, such alleviation occurs by worsening the $χ^2$ compared to the $χ^2$ for $Λ$CDM model obtained for the same combined dataset.

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arXiv2020

Using variability and VLBI to measure cosmological distances

In this paper, we propose a new approach to determining cosmological distances to active galactic nuclei (AGN) via light travel-time arguments, which can be extended from nearby sources to very high redshift sources. The key assumption is that the variability seen in AGN is constrained by the speed of light and therefore provides an estimate of the linear size of an emitting region. This can then be compared with the angular size measured with very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) in order to derive a distance. We demonstrate this approach on a specific well studied low redshift (z = 0.0178) source 3C84 (NGC 1275), which is the bright radio core of the Perseus Cluster. We derive an angular diameter distance including statistical errors of $D_{A} = 72^{+5}_{-6}$ Mpc for this source, which is consistent with other distance measurements at this redshift. Possible sources of systematic errors and ways to correct for them are discussed.

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arXiv2020

Model-independent constraints on Type Ia supernova light-curve hyper-parameters and reconstructions of the expansion history of the Universe

We reconstruct the expansion history of the Universe using type Ia supernovae (SN Ia) in a manner independent of any cosmological model assumptions. To do so, we implement a non-parametric iterative smoothing method on the Joint Light-curve Analysis (JLA) data while exploring the SN Ia light-curve hyper-parameter space by Monte Carlo Markov Chain sampling. We test to see how the posteriors of these hyper-parameters depend on cosmology, whether using different dark energy models or reconstructions shift these posteriors. Our constraints on the SN Ia light-curve hyper-parameters from our model-independent analysis are very consistent with the constraints from using different parametrizations of the equation of state of dark energy, namely the flat $Λ\mathrm{CDM}$ cosmology, the Chevallier-Polarski-Linder (CPL) model, and the Phenomenologically Emergent Dark Energy (PEDE) model. This implies that the distance moduli constructed from the JLA data are mostly independent of the cosmological models. We also studied that the possibility the light-curve parameters evolve with redshift and our results show consistency with no evolution. The reconstructed expansion history of the Universe and dark energy properties also seem to be in good agreement with the expectations of the standard $Λ\mathrm{CDM}$ model. However, our results also indicate that the data still allow for considerable flexibility in the expansion history of the Universe.

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arXiv2020

Debiasing Cosmic Gravitational Wave Sirens

Accurate estimation of the Hubble constant, and other cosmological parameters, from distances measured by cosmic gravitational wave sirens requires sufficient allowance for the dark energy evolution. We demonstrate how model independent statistical methods, specifically Gaussian process regression, can remove bias in the reconstruction of $H(z)$, and can be combined model independently with supernova distances. This allows stringent tests of both $H_0$ and $Λ$CDM, and can detect unrecognized systematics. We also quantify the redshift systematic control necessary for the use of dark sirens, showing that it must approach spectroscopic precision to avoid significant bias.

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arXiv2020

A Simple Phenomenological Emergent Dark Energy Model can Resolve the Hubble Tension

Motivated by the current status of the cosmological observations and significant tensions in the estimated values of some key parameters assuming the standard $Λ$CDM model, we propose a simple but radical phenomenological emergent dark energy model where dark energy has no effective presence in the past and emerges at the later times. Theoretically, in this phenomenological dark energy model with zero degree of freedom (similar to a $Λ$CDM model), one can derive that the equation of state of dark energy increases from $-\frac{2}{3 {\rm{ln}}\, 10} -1$ in the past to $-1$ in the future. We show that by setting a hard-cut 2$σ$ lower bound prior for the $H_0$ that associates with $97.72\%$ probability from the recent local observations~\citep{riess2019large}, this model can satisfy different combinations of cosmological observations at low and high redshifts (SNe Ia, BAO, Ly{$α$} BAO and CMB) substantially better than the concordance $Λ$CDM model with $Δχ^2_{bf} \sim -41.08$ and $Δ\,{\rm{DIC}} \sim-35.38$. If there are no substantial systematics in SN Ia, BAO or Planck CMB data and assuming reliability of the current local $H_0$ measurements, there is a very high probability that with slightly more precise measurement of the Hubble constant our proposed phenomenological model rules out the cosmological constant with decisive statistical significance and is a strong alternative to explain combination of different cosmological observations. This simple phenomenologically emergent dark energy model can guide theoretically motivated dark energy model building activities.

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arXiv2019

Revisiting Metastable Dark Energy and Tensions in the Estimation of Cosmological Parameters

We investigate constraints on some key cosmological parameters by confronting metastable dark energy models with different combinations of the most recent cosmological observations. Along with the standard $Λ$CDM model, two phenomenological metastable dark energy models are considered: (\romannumeral1) DE decays exponentially, (\romannumeral2) DE decays into dark matter. We find that: (1) when considering the most recent supernovae and BAO data, and assuming a fiducial $Λ$CDM model, the inconsistency in the estimated value of the $Ω_{\rm{m,0}}h^2$ parameter obtained by either including or excluding Planck CMB data becomes very much substantial and points to a clear tension~\citep{sahni2014model,zhao2017dynamical}; (2) although the two metastable dark energy models that we study provide greater flexibility in fitting the data, and they indeed fit the SNe Ia+BAO data substantially better than $Λ$CDM, they are not able to alleviate this tension significantly when CMB data are included; (3) while local measurements of the Hubble constant are significantly higher relative to the estimated value of $H_0$ in our models (obtained by fitting to SNe Ia and BAO data), the situation seems to be rather complicated with hints of inconsistency among different observational data sets (CMB, SNe Ia+BAO and local $H_0$ measurements). Our results indicate that we might not be able to remove the current tensions among different cosmological observations by considering simple modifications of the standard model or by introducing minimal dark energy models. A complicated form of expansion history, different systematics in different data and/or a non-conventional model of the early Universe might be responsible for these tensions.

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arXiv2019

A model-independent determination of the Hubble constant from lensed quasars and supernovae using Gaussian process regression

Strongly lensed quasar systems with time delay measurements provide "time delay distances", which are a combination of three angular diameter distances and serve as powerful tools to determine the Hubble constant $H_0$. However, current results often rely on the assumption of the $Λ$CDM model. Here we use a model-independent method based on Gaussian process to directly constrain the value of $H_0$. By using Gaussian process regression, we can generate posterior samples of unanchored supernova distances independent of any cosmological model and anchor them with strong lens systems. The combination of a supernova sample with large statistics but no sensitivity to $H_0$ with a strong lens sample with small statistics but $H_0$ sensitivity gives a precise $H_0$ measurement without the assumption of any cosmological model. We use four well-analyzed lensing systems from the state-of-art lensing program H0LiCOW and the Pantheon supernova compilation in our analysis. Assuming the Universe is flat, we derive the constraint $H_0=72.2 \pm 2.1\,$km/s/Mpc, a precision of $2.9\%$. Allowing for cosmic curvature with a prior of $Ω_{k}=[-0.2,0.2]$, the constraint becomes $H_0=73.0_{-3.0}^{+2.8}\,$km/s/Mpc.

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arXiv2019

Update on Testing the Isotropy of the Properties of Gamma-Ray Bursts

Previously we proposed a novel method to inspect the isotropy of the properties of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) such as their duration, fluences and peak fluxes at various energy bands and different time scales, complementary to existing studies of spatial distribution of GRBs by other authors. The method was then applied on the Fermi GBM Burst Catalog containing 1591 GRBs and except one particular direction where we noticed some hints of violation from statistical isotropy, the rest of the data showed consistency with isotropy. In this work we apply our method with some minor modifications to the updated Fermi/GBM data sample containing 2266 GRBs, thus $\sim 40$ % larger. We also test two other major GRB catalogs, the BATSE Current GRB Catalog of the CGRO satellite containing $\sim 2000$ bursts and the Swift/BAT Gamma-Ray Burst Catalog containing $\sim 1200$ bursts. The new results using the updated data are consistent with our previous findings and no statistically significant anisotropic feature in the observed properties of these samples of all GRBs is found.

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arXiv2019

Gravitational wave cosmology and astrophysics with large spectroscopic galaxy surveys

During the next decade, gravitational waves will be observed from hundreds of binary inspiral events. When the redshifts of the host galaxies are known, these events can be used as `standard sirens', sensitive to the expansion rate of the Universe. Measurements of the Hubble constant $H_0$ from standard sirens can be done independently of other cosmological probes, and events occurring at $z<0.1$ will allow us to infer $H_0$ independently of cosmological models. The next generation of spectroscopic galaxy surveys will play a crucial role in reducing systematic uncertainties in $H_0$ from standard sirens, particularly for the numerous `dark sirens' which do not have an electromagnetic counterpart. In combination with large spectroscopic data sets, standard sirens with an EM counterpart are expected to constrain $H_0$ to $\sim 1-2\%$ precision within the next decade. This is competitive with the best estimates of $H_0$ obtained to date and will help illuminate the current tension between existing measurements. Information on the galaxies that host the gravitational wave events will also shed light on the origin and evolution of compact object binaries.

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arXiv2019

Model Independent Expansion History from Supernovae: Cosmology versus Systematics

We examine the Pantheon supernovae distance data compilation in a model independent analysis to test the validity of cosmic history reconstructions beyond the concordance $Λ$CDM cosmology. Strong deviations are allowed by the data at $z\gtrsim1$ in the reconstructed Hubble parameter, $Om$ diagnostic, and dark energy equation of state. We explore three interpretations: 1) possibility of the true cosmology being far from $Λ$CDM, 2) supernovae property evolution, and 3) survey selection effects. The strong (and theoretically problematic) deviations at $z\gtrsim1$ vanish and good consistency with $Λ$CDM is found with a simple Malmquist-like linear correction. The adjusted data is robust against the model independent iterative smoothing reconstruction. However, we caution that while by eye the original deviation from $Λ$CDM is striking, $χ^2$ tests do not show the extra linear correction parameter is statistically significant, and a model-independent Gaussian Process regression does not find significant evidence for the need for correction at high-redshifts.

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arXiv2018

Will Gravitational Wave Sirens Determine the Hubble Constant?

Lack of knowledge about the background expansion history of the Universe from independent observations makes it problematic to obtain a precise and accurate estimation of the Hubble constant $H_0$ from gravitational wave standard sirens, even with electromagnetic counterpart redshifts. Simply fitting simultaneously for the matter density in a flat \lcdm\ model can reduce the precision on $H_0$ from 1\% to 5\%, while not knowing the actual background expansion model of the universe (e.g.\ form of dark energy) can introduce substantial bias in estimation of the Hubble constant. When the statistical precision is at the level of 1\% uncertainty on $H_0$, biases in non-\lcdm\ cosmologies that are consistent with current data could reach the 3$σ$ level. To avoid model-dependent biases, statistical techniques that are appropriately agnostic about model assumptions need to be employed.

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