arXiv subjects

Armen Tokadjian

Publications and source records attributed to Armen Tokadjian.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Propulsion Systems for a Starshade Rendezvous Mission with the Habitable World Observatory

We assess how propulsion and operational constraints affect exo-Earth characterization with a starshade rendezvous mission for a Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO)-like telescope at Sun-Earth L2. Using end-to-end Monte Carlo simulations with EXOSIMS, we model a 60 m starshade for visible-band spectroscopy (500-1000 nm) and a 35 m starshade for near-ultraviolet characterization (250-550 nm). For the 60 m design, we compare AEPS Hall, NEXT ion, and Starlink-class Hall thrusters and examine sensitivity to propellant capacity, the fraction of each retargeting slew spent accelerating and decelerating, and on-orbit refueling. With 1000-3000 kg of initial propellant and no refueling, NEXT provides the highest characterization yield: 9-13% more characterizations than AEPS and 13-16% more than the Starlink-class option. Its higher specific impulse enables more retargeting slews per kilogram of propellant. With refueling, yields converge across thruster choices to about 120 cumulative characterizations over 10 years, while propulsion choice mainly affects the number of refueling events. For the 35 m starshade with AEPS, yields are less sensitive to fuel and are dominated by mission duration and geometric accessibility. Increasing the minimum solar keepout angle from 40 to 50 degrees has little effect on yield; increases from 50 to 65 degrees have a modest effect, while angles above 65 degrees rapidly reduce yield, with severe degradation near 80 degrees. These results distinguish fuel-limited and time- or keepout-limited regimes and guide propulsion selection, tank sizing, refueling policy, and keepout constraints for HWO starshade missions.

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arXiv2026

Science-Driven Performance Requirements for UV Coronagraph Design: Implications for O$_3$ Detection in Earth-like Atmospheres

Detecting biosignatures on Earth-like exoplanets from the Proterozoic era requires instrumentation capable of probing near-ultraviolet (NUV) spectral features, particularly ozone (\ce{O3}), which serves as an indirect proxy for molecular oxygen (\ce{O2}) when direct detection is challenging. Using a combination of photochemical-climate modeling and atmospheric retrieval simulations, we quantify fiducial instrument performance requirements for robust \ce{O3} detection and assess the risk of spectral false positives from sulfur dioxide (\ce{SO2}). Our analysis demonstrates the \ce{O3} abundances for Proterozoic Earth-like planets with \ce{O2} as low as 0.1\% the present atmospheric level, can be constrained to within an order of magnitude at 1\,$σ$ confidence using three adjacent photometric bandpasses at a signal-to-noise ratio of 10 at 0.366\,$\upmu$m, each with a 15\% width, and a short wavelength cutoff for those observations near 0.26\,$\upmu$m. The self-consistent steady state atmospheric modeling results show that \ce{SO2} buildup is difficult in a habitable environment with appreciable amounts of water vapor in its atmosphere and would require volcanic outgassing rates at least two orders of magnitude above present-day Earth to reach surface abundance levels comparable to Proterozoic Earth-like abundances of \ce{O3}. Even under these high \ce{SO2} flux scenarios, \ce{SO2} remains largely unconstrained with the recommended observational configuration, reinforcing the need for NUV coverage in coronagraphic instruments. Our findings support the inclusion of UV-optimized optics and detectors on the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) to enable biosignature detection strategies sensitive to atmospheric conditions across key phases of Earth's geological history.

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arXiv2026

Ultraviolet Reflected-Light Spectroscopy of Modern Earth Analogs with Starshade Observations

Characterizing rocky, habitable zone planets in reflected light is a key science objective for future direct imaging missions, and the ultraviolet (UV) is uniquely suited for supporting the characterization of Earth-like atmospheres. The Hartley-Huggins ozone band at $0.25 ~μ\mathrm{m}$ remains detectable at low spectral resolution down to $0.1\%$ PAL $\mathrm{O}_2$, providing a sensitive proxy for oxygen-bearing chemistry even for Proterozoic-like atmospheres where the visible and near-infrared $\mathrm{O}_2$ features become inaccessible. This work uses an end-to-end framework for UV starshade spectroscopy of modern Earth analogs that integrates high-fidelity observation simulation, conservative post-processing, and Bayesian spectral retrieval to quantify ozone detection significance. The framework is applied across 108 simulated scenes spanning a range of planet phase angles, system inclinations, and exozodiacal dust densities. The results establish that robust ozone detection with UV-only, $R=7$ reflected light spectroscopy requires a photometric $\mathrm{SNR} \sim 30$. UV starshade observations with the Habitable Worlds Observatory achieve this threshold within 3-day integrations for solar-type systems at 10 parsecs with inclinations up to $60^\circ$ at favorable phases ($\leq 90^\circ$). Above this SNR threshold, ozone detections are robust to systematic bias from imperfect exozodi calibration within $\sim30\%$, and the median retrieved ozone abundance remains accurate to within one order of magnitude of the true value.

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arXiv2026

A Century of Radial Velocity and Astrometric Monitoring of 70 Oph AB: New PFS Data and Constraints on Planetary Companions

At a distance of 5.1 pc, the 70 Oph AB binary star system is one of the most favorable targets for future direct imaging and astrometry missions surveying mature, terrestrial planets. We present new radial velocities (RVs) obtained with the Planet Finder Spectrograph (PFS) on the 6.5\,m Magellan II Clay Telescope in Chile. We collected 499 measurements of 70 Oph A and 334 measurements of 70 Oph B during 2023--2025. Combining these data with decades of archival RVs and astrometry, we derive an updated orbital solution for the binary and dynamical masses of $0.88 \pm 0.004\,M_\odot$ and $0.73 \pm 0.003\,M_\odot$ for the primary and secondary components, respectively. We find that the long-term RV variability of both components is consistent with stellar activity modulated by rotation periods, and we detect no coherent planetary signals in either component. We place upper limits on any planets orbiting in the plane of the binary. The 27 yr RV baseline for 70 Oph A excludes Jupiter-mass planets interior to 5 au and reaches a sensitivity of $0.3\,M_{\rm Jup}$ at 1 au or $0.5\,M_{\rm Jup}$ at 2 au. For 70 Oph B, with PFS data we rule out planets more massive than $0.25$--$0.3\,M_{\rm Jup}$ inside 0.5 au. We show that stable S-type orbits around 70 Oph A extend to $\sim2.5$ au, covering the habitable zone. Thus, Saturn-mass planets or smaller on stable orbits in the habitable zone of 70 Oph A are allowed. Overall, our results provide important guidance for future planet searches around this stellar system.

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arXiv2026

Wavelength Requirements for Life Detection via Reflected Light Spectroscopy of Rocky Exoplanets

Searching for signs of life is a primary goal of the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO). However, merely detecting oxygen, methane, or other widely discussed biosignatures is insufficient evidence for a biosphere. In parallel with biosignature detection, exoplanet life detection additionally requires characterization of the broader physicochemical context to evaluate planetary habitability and the plausibility that life could produce a particular biosignature in a given environment. Life detection further requires that we can confidently rule out photochemical or geological phenomena that can mimic life. Evaluating false-positive scenarios may require different observatory specifications than biosignature detection surveys. Here, we explore the coronagraph requirements for assessing habitability and for excluding known false-positive (and false-negative) scenarios for oxygen and methane. We find that broad wavelength coverage ranging from the near ultraviolet (0.26 $μ$m) and extending into the near infrared (1.7 $μ$m) is necessary to contextualize these potential biosignatures with HWO. The short-wavelength cutoff is driven by the need to identify Proterozoic-like biospheres via O$_3$, whereas the long-wavelength cutoff is driven by the need to contextualize O$_2$ and CH$_4$ biosignatures via constraints on carbon-bearing atmospheric species. The ability to obtain spectra with signal-to-noise ratios of 20-40 across this 0.26-1.7 $μ$m range (R=7 UV, R=140 VIS, and R=70 NIR) is also required. While not every Earth-analog biosignature and false positive can be unambiguously identified with these capabilities-and the plausibility and contextual clues of many biosignature false positives remain an area of active research-our minimal spectral recommendations would enable a broad search for Earth-like life assuming such observations are achievable for a meaningful number of HWO targets.

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arXiv2026

Searching for Habitable Exoplanets with Relative Astrometry (SHERA). I. The Case for Searching for Planets in Binary Star Systems

Discovering Earth-like planets orbiting Sun-like stars was identified as a priority science goal of the Astronomy 2020 Decadal Survey. It is confounded by many factors, one of which is the high multiplicity of Sun-like stars in the local neighborhood - half of nearby Sun-like stars are in binary or higher-order stellar systems, which are less amenable to the detection of small planets with almost all of the currently productive exoplanet detection techniques. Here we describe the SHERA (Searching for Habitable Exoplanets with Relative Astrometry) NASA Small Explorer mission concept. SHERA utilizes diffractive-pupil technology on a small, simple optical space telescope to achieve microarcsecond precision relative astrometry on 14 Sun-like stars in seven nearby multi-star systems, combining the pupil and stellar binarity to provide a precise reference in the image plane. With this precision, SHERA would enable: (i) a search for rocky planets in the habitable zones of the closest Sun-like stars; (ii) an investigation of the impact of binary star formation on small, widely separated planets; and (iii) the performance of crucial precursor observations on a number of high-priority targets of NASA's future missions to characterize Earth-like planets, such as the Habitable Worlds Observatory. When combined with radial velocity measurements, SHERA relative astrometry will also enable exploration of the three-dimensional orbital structure of planets in binary systems.

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arXiv2026

Methane on the temperate exo-Saturn TOI-199b

Temperate ($T_{\rm eq}<400$ K) gas giants represent an unexplored frontier in exoplanet atmospheric spectroscopy. Orbiting a G-type star every $\sim100$ days, the Saturn-mass exoplanet TOI-199 b ($T_{\rm eq}=350$ K) is one of the most favorable low-temperature gas giants for atmospheric study. Here, we present its transmission spectrum from a single transit observed with JWST's NIRSpec G395M mode. Despite lower-than-nominal precision due to a pointing misalignment, the spectrum reveals the presence of CH$_4$ (Bayes factor of $\sim$700 in a cloudy atmosphere), corresponding to a metallicity of $\rm{C/H}=13^{+78}_{-12}\times$ solar, although the absence of detectable CO and CO$_2$ at the current precision disfavors metallicities $\gtrsim50\times$ solar. We also tested several haze prescriptions (Titan-like tholin, soot, and water-rich tholin), but the preference for these models is weak (Bayes factors of $\sim 2$ relative to the clear case). The spectrum also shows an increase in transit depth near 3 $μ$m, which our self-consistent models attribute to either NH$_3$ or, less likely, HCN. Follow-up observations could distinguish between these species, helping determine the planet's vertical mixing regime. The TOI-199 system exhibits strong transit timing variations (TTVs) due to an outer non-transiting giant planet. For planet c, our TTV analysis reduces its mass uncertainty by 50% and prefers a slightly longer orbital period (but still within the conservative habitable zone) and higher eccentricity relative to previous studies. TOI-199 b serves as the first data point for studying clouds and hazes in temperate gas giants, with the detection of spectral features in its transmission spectrum indicating that temperate gas giants are promising targets for detailed atmospheric characterization.

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arXiv2026

The Impact of Planetary Phase Functions on Exo-Earth Detectability with EXOSIMS

The under-development NASA Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) aims to provide breakthroughs in exoplanet science, yet the most effective approaches to modeling the detection and characterization of potentially Earth-like worlds with HWO remain uncertain despite being essential considerations for mission design. In this work, we aim to better model and understand detection metrics through the use of EXOSIMS (Exoplanet Open-Source Imaging Mission Simulator), an exoplanet yield modeling tool. Yield modeling requires representing planetary brightness via a planetary phase curve. Earth's true visual phase curve is non-Lambertian, deviating from the idealized Lambertian model in EXOSIMS, particularly at phase angles beyond 90 degrees (i.e., quadrature). This leads to underestimating Earth's brightness. To address this, we incorporate phase-dependent reflectance from a high-fidelity Earth model into EXOSIMS for physically motivated simulations. We explore and quantify differences in phase-dependent detections, finding that the realistic Earth phase function produces modest changes in the median number of detected exo-Earths and systematically redistributes detections towards medium to high phase angles where Earth is intrinsically brighter than a Lambertian approximation. Additionally, we explore the role of coronagraph inner working angle (IWA) by running simulations across multiple IWA values with both phase functions, revealing that smaller IWAs expand access to a broader range of orbital phases, altering the resulting phase-angle distribution of detections. Together, these results demonstrate that realistic phase functions and IWA parameters both have measurable impacts on yield estimates for an HWO-like mission and highlight the need to more realistically represent Earth-like worlds in yield modeling.

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arXiv2026

Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO): Living Worlds Community Working Group: The Search for Life on Potentially Habitable Exoplanets

The discovery of a biosphere on another planet would transform how we view ourselves, and our planet Earth, in relation to the rest of the cosmos. We now know Earth is one planet among eight circling our sun; our sun is part of a swirling galaxy of over one hundred billion other suns; and our galaxy is one of untold billions in the universe. While we do not yet know how many, if any, other biospheres exist on the countless worlds orbiting countless other suns, we stand at the precipice of a new era of discovery, enabled by powerful new facilities able to peer across the light years into the atmospheres of planets similar to our own. This article is an adaptation of a science case document (SCDD) developed for the NASA Astrophysics Flagship mission the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) Science, Technology, and Architecture Review Team (START) Living Worlds Community Working Group.

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arXiv2025

Identifying rocky planets and water worlds among sub-Neptune-sized exoplanets with the Habitable Worlds Observatory

Astronomers are debating whether the plentiful "sub-Neptune" exoplanets -- worlds a bit larger than Earth but smaller than Neptune -- are predominantly rocky planets, water-rich "ocean worlds," or gas-enshrouded mini-Neptunes. This question is crucial because such sub-Neptune-sized planets are among the most common in our galaxy, yet we have no analog in our own solar system, making them a key to understanding planet formation and diversity. It also directly impacts the search for habitable worlds: larger-than-Earth planets with solid surfaces or oceans could support life, whereas gas-rich mini-Neptunes likely cannot. However, distinguishing these types using only a planet's mass and radius is very challenging, because different compositions can produce similar densities, leaving a world's nature ambiguous with current data. The proposed Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO), a future NASA flagship telescope, offers a solution. HWO could directly image and spectroscopically analyze starlight reflected from 50~100 sub-Neptunes around nearby stars, aiming to reveal their atmospheric compositions and potential surfaces. Using visible and near-infrared spectroscopy along with sensitive polarimetry, HWO would detect atmospheric gases (such as water vapor, methane, and carbon dioxide) and search for telltale surface signatures, including rock absorption features and the characteristic reflectivity patterns of oceans. By analyzing these signals, we could determine whether sub-Neptunes are large rocky planets or water worlds rather than gas-dominated mini-Neptunes. Crucially, expanding the search beyond Earth-sized planets to include these abundant sub-Neptunes may uncover entirely new classes of potentially habitable worlds, directly advancing HWO's mission to identify and characterize planets that could support life.

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arXiv2025

Volcanic Satellites Tidally Venting Na, K, SO2 in Optical & Infrared Light

Recent infrared spectroscopy from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has spurred analyses of common volcanic gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), alongside alkali metals sodium (Na I) and potassium (K I) surrounding the hot Saturn WASP-39 b. We report more than an order-of-magnitude of variability in the density of neutral Na, K, and SO2 between ground-based measurements and JWST, at distinct epochs, hinting at exogenic physical processes similar to those sourcing Io's extended atmosphere and torus. Tidally-heated volcanic satellite simulations sputtering gas into a cloud or toroid orbiting the planet, are able to reproduce the probed line-of-sight column density variations. The estimated SO2 flux is consistent with tidal gravitation predictions, with a Na/SO2 ratio far smaller than Io's. Although stable satellite orbits at this system are known to be < 15.3 hours, several high-resolution alkali Doppler shift observations are required to constrain a putative orbit. Due to the Roche limit interior to the planetary photosphere at ~ 8 hours, atmosphere-exosphere interactions are expected to be especially important at this system.

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arXiv2025

A water-rich interior in the temperate sub-Neptune K2-18 b revealed by JWST

Temperate sub-Neptunes are compelling targets for detecting liquid-water oceans beyond the Solar System. If water-rich and lacking massive hydrogen-helium envelopes, these planets could sustain liquid layers beneath their atmospheres despite sizes larger than Earth. Previous observations of the temperate sub-Neptune K2-18 b revealed an H2-dominated atmosphere rich in CH4, with moderate evidence for CO2 and tentative signs of dimethyl sulfide (DMS). Here we present four new JWST/NIRSpec transit observations of K2-18 b. The resulting high-precision transmission spectrum robustly detects both CH4 and CO2, precisely measuring their abundances and firmly establishing the planet's water-rich nature: either a thick envelope with >10% H2O by volume or a thin atmosphere above a liquid-water ocean. The spectrum reveals no detectable H2O, NH3, or CO. The absence of atmospheric water vapor suggests an efficient cold trap, while the nondetections of NH3 and CO support the scenario of a small H2-rich atmosphere overlying a liquid reservoir. However, alternative models that include these gases can also reproduce the spectrum within uncertainties, highlighting the need for deeper observations. The spectrum only contains marginal signals of DMS, methyl mercaptan (CH3SH), and nitrous oxide (N2O), with none exceeding 3 sigma in model preference and all falling below ~2 sigma without imposing a strong super-Rayleigh haze. Meanwhile, our self-consistent photochemical models show that DMS and CH3SH may form abiotically in massive H2-rich atmospheres of high metallicity, making it important to consider additional indicators for their potential use as biosignatures. K2-18 b, a cool, water-rich world, stands out as one of the most promising temperate sub-Neptunes for exploring the emergence of liquid-water environments in non-Earth-like planets, motivating further characterization of its atmosphere and interior.

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arXiv2025

The James Webb Space Telescope NIRSpec-PRISM Transmission Spectrum of the Super-Puff, Kepler-51d

Kepler-51 is a 500 Myr G dwarf hosting three "super-puffs" and one low-mass non-transiting planet. Kepler-51d, the coolest (T_eq ~ 350 K) transiting planet in this system, is also one of the lowest density super-puffs known to date (rho_p = 0.038 +/- 0.009 g/cm^3). With a planetary mass of Mp = 5.6 +/- 1.2 Earth masses and a radius of Rp = 9.32 +/- 0.18 Earth radii, the observed properties of this planet are not readily explained by most planet formation theories. Hypotheses explaining Kepler-51d's low density range from a substantial H/He envelope comprising more than 30% of its mass, to a high-altitude haze layer, to a tilted ring system. To test these hypotheses, we present the NIRSpec-PRISM 0.6-5.3 micron transmission spectrum of Kepler-51d observed by the James Webb Space Telescope. We find a spectrum best fit by a sloped line covering the entire wavelength range. Based on forward modeling and atmosphere retrievals, Kepler-51d likely possesses a low-metallicity atmosphere with high-altitude hazes of submicron particle sizes spanning pressures of 1-100 microbars. However, the spectrum could also be explained by a tilted ring with an estimated lifetime on the order of ~0.1 Myr. We also investigate the stellar activity of this young Sun-like star, extracting a spot temperature significantly hotter than sunspots and spot covering fractions on the order of 0.1-10%, depending on the assumed spot parameters.

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arXiv2025

Cross-Model Validation of Coronagraphic Exposure Time Calculators for the Habitable Worlds Observatory: A Report from the Exoplanet Science Yield sub-Working Group

Estimating the exoplanet scientific productivity of the Habitable Worlds Observatory requires estimating science exposure times. From exoplanet yields to spectral retrievals, exposure times are at the heart of our understanding of the capabilities of this future mission. As such, ensuring accuracy and consistency between different exposure time calculators (ETCs) is critical. We summarize the efforts of the Exoplanet Science Yield sub-Working Group's ETC Calibration Task Group, which conducted a calibration study from March 4 to June 30 of 2024. We compare three commonly-used coronagraphic exposure time calculators. We find that the ETCs use a broad variety of differing methods, assumptions, and inputs that produce variation in the final exposure times at the ~60% level. The causes for the disagreement have largely been identified, flagged for further development efforts, and in some cases retired since the conclusion of this effort. We expect that addressing the flagged efforts will bring the ETCs to within better than ~30% agreement.

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arXiv2025

Evidence for a volcanic atmosphere on the sub-Earth L98-59b

Assessing the prevalence of atmospheres on rocky planets around M-dwarf stars is a top priority of exoplanet science. High-energy activity from M-dwarfs can destroy the atmospheres of these planets, which could explain the lack of atmosphere detections to date. Volcanic outgassing has been proposed as a mechanism to replenish the atmospheres of tidally-heated rocky planets. L 98-59 b, a sub-Earth transiting a nearby M dwarf, was recently identified as the most promising exoplanet to detect a volcanic atmosphere. We present the transmission spectrum of L 98-59 b from four transits observed with JWST NIRSpec G395H. Although the airless model provides an adequate fit to the data based on its $χ^2$, an SO$_2$ atmosphere is preferred by 3.6$σ$ over a flat line in terms of the Bayesian evidence. Such an atmosphere would likely be in a steady state where volcanism balances escape. If so, L 98-59 b must experience at least eight times as much volcanism and tidal heating per unit mass as Io. If volcanism is driven by runaway melting of the mantle, we predict the existence of a subsurface magma ocean in L 98-59 b extending up to $R_p\sim 60-90\%$. An SO$_2$-rich volcanic atmosphere on L 98-59 b would be indicative of an oxidized mantle with an oxygen fugacity of $f\rm{O}_2>IW+2.7$, and it would imply that L 98-59 b must have retained some of its volatile endowment despite its proximity to its star. Our findings suggest that volcanism may revive secondary atmospheres on tidally heated rocky planets around M-dwarfs.

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arXiv2024

HWO Yield Sensitivities in the NIR and NUV

Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) will search for biosignatures from Earth-size exoplanets in the habitable zones of nearby stars. The wavelength range for biosignatures used by the HabEx and LUVOIR mission concept studies was 200 nm to 2 microns and, as such, this is a candidate wavelength range for HWO. The visible wavelength range (500-1000 nm) provides for detection of water, oxygen, and Raleigh scattering; the near-ultraviolet is valuable for detection of ozone; and the near-infrared enables detection of carbon dioxide and methane for Earth-like atmospheres. Damiano et al. 2023 showed the significant improvement in spectral retrieval reliability when the NUV and NIR are both used with the visible. However, the challenge of the NUV, in addition to the technological and engineering challenges of starlight suppression in the NUV, is the drop in flux of host stars. In the NIR, the challenge is the geometric access to the habitable zone due to the wavelength dependency of the inner working angle limit of coronagraphs. For these reasons, exoplanet yields are lower in the NUV and NIR than in the visible (Morgan et al. 2023, Morgan et al. 2024) and some instrument parameters are more critical for improving NUV and NIR yields than others. In this paper we present a new capability for performing a large number of end-to-end yield modeling simulations to enable large, multivariate parameter sweeps. We utilize this capability to calculate the Visible, NIR, and NUV yield sensitivities to the instrument parameters: aperture diameter, coronagraph core throughput, contrast, and inner working angle (IWA). We find that parameter interactions are important in determining yield, the most important of which is the interaction between contrast and IWA, but that the strength of that interaction is different in each of the three wavebands.

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arXiv2024

The Detectability of CH$_4$/CO$_2$/CO and N$_2$O Biosignatures through Reflection Spectroscopy of Terrestrial Exoplanets

The chemical makeup of Earth's atmosphere during the Archean (4 Ga-2.5 Ga) and Proterozoic eon (2.5 Ga-0.5 Ga) contrast considerably with the present-day: the Archean was rich in carbon dioxide and methane and the Proterozoic had potentially higher amounts of nitrous oxide. CO$_2$ and CH$_4$ in an Archean Earth analog may be a compelling biosignature because their coexistence implies methane replenishment at rates unlikely to be abiotic. However, CH$_4$ can also be produced through geological processes, and setting constraints on volcanic molecules like CO may help address this ambiguity. N$_2$O in a Proterozoic Earth analog may be evidence of life because N$_2$O production on Earth is mostly biological. Motivated by these ideas, we use the code $\mbox{ExoReL$^\Re$}$ to generate forward models and simulate spectral retrievals of an Archean and Proterozoic Earth-like planet to determine the detectability of CH$_4$, CO$_2$, CO, and N$_2$O in their reflected light spectrum for wavelength range 0.25-1.8 $μ$m. We show that it is challenging to detect CO in an Archean atmosphere for volume mixing ratio (VMR) $\leq$ 10%, but CH$_4$ is readily detectable for both the full wavelength span and truncated ranges cut at 1.7$μ$m and 1.6$μ$m, although for the latter two cases the dominant gas of the atmosphere is misidentified. Meanwhile, N$_2$O in a Proterozoic atmosphere is detectable for VMR=$10^{-3}$ and long wavelength cutoff $\geq 1.4μ$m, but undetectable for VMR $\leq 10^{-4}$ . The results presented here will be useful for the strategic design of the future Habitable Worlds Observatory and the components needed to potentially distinguish between inhabited and lifeless planets.

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arXiv2024

A Fourth Planet in the Kepler-51 System Revealed by Transit Timing Variations

Kepler-51 is a $\lesssim 1\,\mathrm{Gyr}$-old Sun-like star hosting three transiting planets with radii $\approx 6$-$9\,R_\oplus$ and orbital periods $\approx 45$-$130\,\mathrm{days}$. Transit timing variations (TTVs) measured with past Kepler and Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations have been successfully modeled by considering gravitational interactions between the three transiting planets, yielding low masses and low mean densities ($\lesssim 0.1\,\mathrm{g/cm^3}$) for all three planets. However, the transit time of the outermost transiting planet Kepler-51d recently measured by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) 10 years after the Kepler observations is significantly discrepant from the prediction made by the three-planet TTV model, which we confirmed with ground-based and follow-up HST observations. We show that the departure from the three-planet model is explained by including a fourth outer planet, Kepler-51e, in the TTV model. A wide range of masses ($\lesssim M_\mathrm{Jup}$) and orbital periods ($\lesssim 10\,\mathrm{yr}$) are possible for Kepler-51e. Nevertheless, all the coplanar solutions found from our brute-force search imply masses $\lesssim 10\,M_\oplus$ for the inner transiting planets. Thus their densities remain low, though with larger uncertainties than previously estimated. Unlike other possible solutions, the one in which Kepler-51e is around the $2:1$ mean motion resonance with Kepler-51d implies low orbital eccentricities ($\lesssim 0.05$) and comparable masses ($\sim 5\,M_\oplus$) for all four planets, as is seen in other compact multi-planet systems. This work demonstrates the importance of long-term follow-up of TTV systems for probing longer period planets in a system.

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