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Arnaud Gloter

Publications and source records attributed to Arnaud Gloter.

26 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Contrast function estimation for the drift parameter of ergodic jump diffusion process

In this paper we consider an ergodic diffusion process with jumps whose drift coefficient depends on an unknown parameter $θ$. We suppose that the process is discretely observed at the instants (t n i)i=0,...,n with $Δ$n = sup i=0,...,n--1 (t n i+1 -- t n i) $\rightarrow$ 0. We introduce an estimator of $θ$, based on a contrast function, which is efficient without requiring any conditions on the rate at which $Δ$n $\rightarrow$ 0, and where we allow the observed process to have non summable jumps. This extends earlier results where the condition n$Δ$ 3 n $\rightarrow$ 0 was needed (see [10],[24]) and where the process was supposed to have summable jumps. Moreover, in the case of a finite jump activity, we propose explicit approximations of the contrast function, such that the efficient estimation of $θ$ is feasible under the condition that n$Δ$ k n $\rightarrow$ 0 where k > 0 can be arbitrarily large. This extends the results obtained by Kessler [15] in the case of continuous processes. L{é}vy-driven SDE, efficient drift estimation, high frequency data, ergodic properties, thresholding methods.

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Jump filtering and efficient drift estimation for Lévy-driven SDE's

The problem of drift estimation for the solution $X$ of a stochastic differential equation with Lévy-type jumps is considered under discrete high-frequency observations with a growing observation window. An efficient and asymptotically normal estimator for the drift parameter is constructed under minimal conditions on the jump behavior and the sampling scheme. In the case of a bounded jump measure density these conditions reduce to $n Δ_n^{3-ε}\to 0,$ where $n$ is the number of observations and $Δ_n$ is the maximal sampling step. This result relaxes the condition $nΔ_n^2 \to 0$ usually required for joint estimation of drift and diffusion coefficient for SDE's with jumps. The main challenge in this estimation problem stems from the appearance of the unobserved continuous part $X^c$ in the likelihood function. In order to construct the drift estimator we recover this continuous part from discrete observations. More precisely, we estimate, in a nonparametric way, stochastic integrals with respect to $X^c$. Convergence results of independent interest are proved for these nonparametric estimators. Finally, we illustrate the behavior of our drift estimator for a number of popular Lévy-driven models from finance.

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Asymptotic lower bounds in estimating jumps

We study the problem of the efficient estimation of the jumps for stochastic processes. We assume that the stochastic jump process $(X_t)_{t\in[0,1]}$ is observed discretely, with a sampling step of size $1/n$. In the spirit of Hajek's convolution theorem, we show some lower bounds for the estimation error of the sequence of the jumps $(ΔX_{T_k})_k$. As an intermediate result, we prove a LAMN property, with rate $\sqrt{n}$, when the marks of the underlying jump component are deterministic. We deduce then a convolution theorem, with an explicit asymptotic minimal variance, in the case where the marks of the jump component are random. To prove that this lower bound is optimal, we show that a threshold estimator of the sequence of jumps $(ΔX_{T_k})_k$ based on the discrete observations, reaches the minimal variance of the previous convolution theorem.

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Maximum likelihood estimation in the context of a sub-ballistic random walk in a parametric random environment

We consider a one dimensional sub-ballistic random walk evolving in a parametric i.i.d. random environment. We study the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the parameter based on a single observation of the path till the time it reaches a distant site. In that purpose, we adapt the method developed in the ballistic case by Comets et al (2014) and Falconnet, Loukianova and Matias (2014). Using a supplementary assumption due to the specificity of the sub-ballistic regime, we prove consistency and asymptotic normality as the distant site tends to infinity. To emphazis the role of the additional assumption, we investigate the Temkin model with unknown support, and it turns out that the MLE is consistent but, unlike in the ballistic regime, the Fisher information is infinite. We also explore the numerical performance of our estimation procedure.

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Distance between two skew Brownian motions as a SDE with jumps and law of the hitting time

In this paper, we consider two skew Brownian motions, driven by the same Brownian motion, with different starting points and different skewness coefficients. We show that we can describe the evolution of the distance between the two processes with a stochastic differential equation. This S.D.E. possesses a jump component driven by the excursion process of one of the two skew Brownian motions. Using this representation, we show that the local time of two skew Brownian motions at their first hitting time is distributed as a simple function of a Beta random variable. This extends a result by Burdzy and Chen (2001), where the law of coalescence of two skew Brownian motions with the same skewness coefficient is computed.

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Multifractal analysis in a mixed asymptotic framework

Multifractal analysis of multiplicative random cascades is revisited within the framework of {\em mixed asymptotics}. In this new framework, statistics are estimated over a sample which size increases as the resolution scale (or the sampling period) becomes finer. This allows one to continuously interpolate between the situation where one studies a single cascade sample at arbitrary fine scales and where at fixed scale, the sample length (number of cascades realizations) becomes infinite. We show that scaling exponents of ''mixed'' partitions functions i.e., the estimator of the cumulant generating function of the cascade generator distribution, depends on some ``mixed asymptotic'' exponent $χ$ respectively above and beyond two critical value $p_χ^-$ and $p_χ^+$. We study the convergence properties of partition functions in mixed asymtotics regime and establish a central limit theorem. These results are shown to remain valid within a general wavelet analysis framework. Their interpretation in terms of Besov frontier are discussed. Moreover, within the mixed asymptotic framework, we establish a ``box-counting'' multifractal formalism that can be seen as a rigorous formulation of Mandelbrot's negative dimension theory. Numerical illustrations of our purpose on specific examples are also provided.

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Estimation of the Hurst parameter from discrete noisy data

We estimate the Hurst parameter $H$ of a fractional Brownian motion from discrete noisy data observed along a high frequency sampling scheme. The presence of systematic experimental noise makes recovery of $H$ more difficult since relevant information is mostly contained in the high frequencies of the signal. We quantify the difficulty of the statistical problem in a min-max sense: we prove that the rate $n^{-1/(4H+2)}$ is optimal for estimating $H$ and propose rate optimal estimators based on adaptive estimation of quadratic functionals.

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LAMN property for hidden processes: the case of integrated diffusions

In this paper we prove the Local Asymptotic Mixed Normality (LAMN) property for the statistical model given by the observation of local means of a diffusion process $X$. Our data are given by $ \int_0^1 X_{\frac{s+i}{n}} \dd μ(s)$ for $i=0,...,n-1$ and the unknown parameter appears in the diffusion coefficient of the process $X$ only. Although the data are nor Markovian neither Gaussian we can write down, with help of Malliavin calculus, an explicit expression for the log-likelihood of the model, and then study the asymptotic expansion. We actually find that the asymptotic information of this model is the same one as for a usual discrete sampling of $X$.

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