arXiv subjects

Arnav Hiray

Publications and source records attributed to Arnav Hiray.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Credit Cards, Confusion, Computation, and Consequences: What Can We Uncover About Language Model Reasoning?

We introduce CreditCardQA, the first financial literacy benchmark for numerical reasoning derived from real credit card agreements. The dataset contains 1,800 questions, including first-person variants that reflect how consumers naturally ask about fees, interest, and payments. We evaluate a range of large language and reasoning models under Chain-of-Thought (CoT) and Program-of-Thought (PoT) prompting. Overall, PoT yields consistent performance gains, particularly for models with weaker baseline reasoning, and narrows gaps between open- and closed-source systems. Through error analysis, we show that failures arise less from arithmetic and more from misapplied financial rules, missed conditions, and misunderstandings of contractual terms. We further analyze question difficulty and find that comparisons, conditional logic, and monetary constraints are especially challenging. We also find that errors often arise in edge cases such as late-payment penalties or small-balance scenarios that are more likely to affect lower-income or financially vulnerable individuals.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

IPO-Mine: A Toolkit and Dataset for Section-Structured Analysis of Long, Multimodal IPO Documents

An Initial Public Offering (IPO) filing is a document released when a private firm goes public, allowing individual (retail) investors to purchase its shares. These filings describe a firm's business, financials, and risks and are long, multimodal documents with narrative text and images. Despite their importance to financial markets, there is no large-scale, standardized dataset or benchmark for studying IPO filings with modern language and multimodal models. These documents pose significant challenges: filings frequently exceed 500,000 tokens and lack consistent structural organization. We introduce the IPO-Toolkit, an open-source framework for downloading and parsing IPO filings into standardized section-structured text and extracted images. The toolkit segments filings, extracts embedded images, and produces structured outputs that enable large-scale, reproducible analysis workflows over long, multimodal documents. Using this infrastructure, we construct the IPO-Dataset, a large, section-structured, multimodal dataset covering more than 109,000 IPO filings and amendments from 1994 to 2026 and containing over 76,000 images. We establish structured evaluation tasks over extracted financial charts, including chart quality and misleadingness assessment. Our experiments show that state-of-the-art multimodal models often diverge from expert human judgments on these tasks, exposing alignment challenges in multimodal reasoning over long, real-world regulatory documents. Beyond benchmarking, the IPO-Dataset enables large-scale analysis of section-level textual variation and cross-industry differences in visual and textual disclosure practices. Our code, dataset, and website are publicly available under CC-BY-4.0.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Words That Unite The World: A Unified Framework for Deciphering Central Bank Communications Globally

Central banks around the world play a crucial role in maintaining economic stability. Deciphering policy implications in their communications is essential, especially as misinterpretations can disproportionately impact vulnerable populations. To address this, we introduce the World Central Banks (WCB) dataset, the most comprehensive monetary policy corpus to date, comprising over 380k sentences from 25 central banks across diverse geographic regions, spanning 28 years of historical data. After uniformly sampling 1k sentences per bank (25k total) across all available years, we annotate and review each sentence using dual annotators, disagreement resolutions, and secondary expert reviews. We define three tasks: Stance Detection, Temporal Classification, and Uncertainty Estimation, with each sentence annotated for all three. We benchmark seven Pretrained Language Models (PLMs) and nine Large Language Models (LLMs) (Zero-Shot, Few-Shot, and with annotation guide) on these tasks, running 15,075 benchmarking experiments. We find that a model trained on aggregated data across banks significantly surpasses a model trained on an individual bank's data, confirming the principle "the whole is greater than the sum of its parts." Additionally, rigorous human evaluations, error analyses, and predictive tasks validate our framework's economic utility. Our artifacts are accessible through the HuggingFace and GitHub under the CC-BY-NC-SA 4.0 license.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

CoCoHD: Congress Committee Hearing Dataset

U.S. congressional hearings significantly influence the national economy and social fabric, impacting individual lives. Despite their importance, there is a lack of comprehensive datasets for analyzing these discourses. To address this, we propose the Congress Committee Hearing Dataset (CoCoHD), covering hearings from 1997 to 2024 across 86 committees, with 32,697 records. This dataset enables researchers to study policy language on critical issues like healthcare, LGBTQ+ rights, and climate justice. We demonstrate its potential with a case study on 1,000 energy-related sentences, analyzing the Energy and Commerce Committee's stance on fossil fuel consumption. By fine-tuning pre-trained language models, we create energy-relevant measures for each hearing. Our market analysis shows that natural language analysis using CoCoHD can predict and highlight trends in the energy sector.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Numerical Claim Detection in Finance: A New Financial Dataset, Weak-Supervision Model, and Market Analysis

In this paper, we investigate the influence of claims in analyst reports and earnings calls on financial market returns, considering them as significant quarterly events for publicly traded companies. To facilitate a comprehensive analysis, we construct a new financial dataset for the claim detection task in the financial domain. We benchmark various language models on this dataset and propose a novel weak-supervision model that incorporates the knowledge of subject matter experts (SMEs) in the aggregation function, outperforming existing approaches. We also demonstrate the practical utility of our proposed model by constructing a novel measure of optimism. Here, we observe the dependence of earnings surprise and return on our optimism measure. Our dataset, models, and code are publicly (under CC BY 4.0 license) available on GitHub.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Shifting Cryptocurrency Influence: A High-Resolution Network Analysis of Market Leaders

Over the last decade, the cryptocurrency market has experienced unprecedented growth, emerging as a prominent financial market. As this market rapidly evolves, it necessitates re-evaluating which cryptocurrencies command the market and steer the direction of blockchain technology. We implement a network-based cryptocurrency market analysis to investigate this changing landscape. We use novel hourly-resolution data and Kendall's Tau correlation to explore the interconnectedness of the cryptocurrency market. We observed critical differences in the hierarchy of cryptocurrencies determined by our method compared to rankings derived from daily data and Pearson's correlation. This divergence emphasizes the potential information loss stemming from daily data aggregation and highlights the limitations of Pearson's correlation. Our findings show that in the early stages of this growth, Bitcoin held a leading role. However, during the 2021 bull run, the landscape changed drastically. We see that while Ethereum has emerged as the overall leader, it was FTT and its associated exchange, FTX, that greatly led to the increase at the beginning of the bull run. We also find that highly-influential cryptocurrencies are increasingly gaining a commanding influence over the market as time progresses, despite the growing number of cryptocurrencies making up the market.

q-fin.ST↗