arXiv subjects

Artem Timoshenko

Publications and source records attributed to Artem Timoshenko.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Innovating with Generative AI: A Human Bottleneck Framework

We propose a human bottleneck perspective for understanding how generative AI transforms the innovation process. The central premise is that many constraints traditionally plaguing the innovation process are cognitive and social in origin, rooted in how people generate ideas, evaluate novelty, and communicate through social systems. Generative AI does not act uniformly on these constraints. At each stage, it can deepen some bottlenecks while alleviating others, and predicting these outcomes requires understanding the underlying mechanisms of the constraint itself. We identify bottlenecks in four stages of the innovation process: ideation, screening and testing, preference measurement and consumer insight, diffusion, and market learning. By grounding analysis in human behavior rather than rapidly changing AI capabilities, we offer a framework for assessing whether new developments alleviate or intensify the bottlenecks that matter most at each stage. We also distinguish bottlenecks likely to narrow as capabilities improve from those rooted in enduring human constraints. We further discuss AI-related issues that cut across the entire innovation pipeline, challenging the very existence and structure of the traditional innovation process.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2025

Profit-Aligned CATE Estimation: Reconciling Policy Learning and Inference

We propose a framework that aligns Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) estimation with profit maximization. Our method recognizes that, for customers with extreme treatment effects, additional estimation accuracy is unlikely to change the recommended actions. In contrast, accuracy is critical near the decision boundary, where treatment effects are close to treatment costs. Our approach optimizes a novel objective function that concentrates learning capacity along this boundary. The proposed objective is Fisher consistent with respect to the original profit function and yields a consistent estimator for CATEs. Theoretically, our framework unifies standard plug-in optimization and direct policy optimization as limiting cases of the same optimization problem. We further show that entropy-regularized policy optimization is a special case of our framework. This result has a direct practical implication: firms can recover consistent CATE estimates from existing profit-maximization pipelines. We use synthetic data to demonstrate how the proposed framework allows firms to explicitly navigate the trade-off between global prediction accuracy and profit maximization.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2025

Transforming the Voice of the Customer: Large Language Models for Identifying Customer Needs

Identifying customer needs (CNs) is fundamental to product innovation and marketing strategy. Yet for over thirty years, Voice-of-the-Customer (VOC) applications have relied on professional analysts to manually interpret qualitative data and formulate "jobs to be done." This task is cognitively demanding, time-consuming, and difficult to scale. While current practice uses machine learning to screen content, the critical final step of precisely formulating CNs relies on expert human judgment. We conduct a series of studies with market research professionals to evaluate whether Large Language Models (LLMs) can automate CN abstraction. Across various product and service categories, we demonstrate that supervised fine-tuned (SFT) LLMs perform at least as well as professional analysts and substantially better than foundational LLMs. These results generalize to alternative foundational LLMs and require relatively "small" models. The abstracted CNs are well-formulated, sufficiently specific to guide innovation, and grounded in source content without hallucination. Our analysis suggests that SFT training enables LLMs to learn the underlying syntactic and semantic conventions of professional CN formulation rather than relying on memorized CNs. Automation of tedious tasks transforms the VOC approach by enabling the discovery of high-leverage insights at scale and by refocusing analysts on higher-value-added tasks.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

POA: Passable Obstacles Aware Path-planning Algorithm for Navigation of a Two-wheeled Robot in Highly Cluttered Environments

This paper focuses on Passable Obstacles Aware (POA) planner - a novel navigation method for two-wheeled robots in a highly cluttered environment. The navigation algorithm detects and classifies objects to distinguish two types of obstacles - passable and unpassable. Our algorithm allows two-wheeled robots to find a path through passable obstacles. Such a solution helps the robot working in areas inaccessible to standard path planners and find optimal trajectories in scenarios with a high number of objects in the robot's vicinity. The POA planner can be embedded into other planning algorithms and enables them to build a path through obstacles. Our method decreases path length and the total travel time to the final destination up to 43% and 39%, respectively, comparing to standard path planners such as GVD, A*, and RRT*

cs.RO↗

arXiv2019

Product Aesthetic Design: A Machine Learning Augmentation

Aesthetics are critically important to market acceptance. In the automotive industry, an improved aesthetic design can boost sales by 30% or more. Firms invest heavily in designing and testing aesthetics. A single automotive "theme clinic" can cost over $100,000, and hundreds are conducted annually. We propose a model to augment the commonly-used aesthetic design process by predicting aesthetic scores and automatically generating innovative and appealing product designs. The model combines a probabilistic variational autoencoder (VAE) with adversarial components from generative adversarial networks (GAN) and a supervised learning component. We train and evaluate the model with data from an automotive partner-images of 203 SUVs evaluated by targeted consumers and 180,000 high-quality unrated images. Our model predicts well the appeal of new aesthetic designs-43.5% improvement relative to a uniform baseline and substantial improvement over conventional machine learning models and pretrained deep neural networks. New automotive designs are generated in a controllable manner for use by design teams. We empirically verify that automatically generated designs are (1) appealing to consumers and (2) resemble designs which were introduced to the market five years after our data were collected. We provide an additional proof-of-concept application using opensource images of dining room chairs.

cs.LG↗