arXiv subjects

Artemis Kontou

Publications and source records attributed to Artemis Kontou.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Cross-Country Learning for National Infectious Disease Forecasting Using European Data

Accurate forecasting of infectious disease incidence is critical for public health planning and timely intervention. While most data-driven forecasting approaches rely primarily on historical data from a single country, such data are often limited in length and variability, restricting the performance of machine learning (ML) models. In this work, we investigate a cross-country learning approach for infectious disease forecasting, in which a single model is trained on time series data from multiple countries and evaluated on a country of interest. This setting enables the model to exploit shared epidemic dynamics across countries and to benefit from an enlarged training set. We examine this approach through a case study on COVID-19 case forecasting in Cyprus, using surveillance data of European countries. We evaluate multiple models and analyse the impact of the lookback window length and cross-country 'data augmentation' on multi-step forecasting performance. The results show that combining data from other countries can lead to consistent improvements over models trained solely on national data. Although the focus is on Cyprus and COVID-19, the framework and findings provide promising insights for infectious disease forecasting in settings with limited national data.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2026

A Comparative Study of Deep Learning Architectures for Multi-Horizon Behavioural Forecasting for Mobile Health

Wearable devices and smartphones generate rich behavioural time series that can support proactive health interventions, yet systematic comparisons of modern forecasting architectures for these data are lacking. In particular, it remains unclear how models generalise across populations, how different architectures respond to participant-level fine-tuning and how forecasting accuracy degrades across multi-day horizons. We benchmark six deep learning architectures, two zero-shot Foundation Models (FM) and statistical baselines on three public datasets encompassing over 800 participants, reporting per-feature metrics for step counts, screen time and sleep duration across 1-8 day horizons. We further conduct a per-feature personalisation study across all six architectures and assess FM transferability across dataset sizes and temporal granularities. Our key findings are: (i) no single architecture dominates, PatchTST leads among trained models while the three runners-up (TCN, MLP, Transformer) show no meaningful performance difference; (ii) the FM TimesFM matches or exceeds trained models zero-shot, especially in low-data regimes and (iii) participant-level fine-tuning reduces per-feature RMSE by 16-60\%, with sleep benefiting most and step counts least. These results provide practical guidance on architecture selection, FM applicability and personalisation strategies for mobile health forecasting. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to jointly evaluate modern deep learning, FMs and personalisation for multi-horizon behavioural forecasting from wearables.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

A Novel end-to-end Digital Health System Using Deep Learning-based ECG Analysis

This study presents AI-HEART, a cloud-based information system for managing and analysing long-duration ambulatory electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings and supporting clinician decision-making. The platform operationalises an end-to-end pipeline that ingests multi-day three-lead ECGs, normalises inputs, performs signal preprocessing, and applies dedicated deep neural networks for wave delineation, noise/quality detection, and beat- and rhythm-level multi-class arrhythmia classification. To address class imbalance and real-world signal variability, model development combines large clinically annotated datasets with expert-in-the-loop curation and generative augmentation for under-represented rhythms. Empirical evaluation on three-lead ambulatory ECG data shows that delineation accuracy is sufficient for automated interval measurement, noise detection reliably flags poor-quality segments, and arrhythmia classification achieves high specificity with clinically useful macro-averaged performance across common and rarer rhythms. Beyond predictive accuracy, AI-HEART provides a scalable deployment approach for integrating AI into routine ECG services, enabling traceable outputs, audit-friendly storage of recordings and derived annotations, and clinician review/editing that captures feedback for controlled model improvement. The findings demonstrate the technical feasibility and operational value of a noise-aware AI-ECG platform as a digital health information system.

eess.SP↗