arXiv subjects

Arthur Gretton

Publications and source records attributed to Arthur Gretton.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Aggregation of Statistical Evidence under Exchangeability

We study aggregation of statistical evidence under unknown and potentially complex dependence using group-invariance. Building on permutation-based constructions that treat transformed datasets as exchangeable units, we aggregate evidence across statistics for each transformed dataset and calibrate the resulting aggregates across transformations. We develop a finite-sample power and adaptivity theory for this framework, together with extensions to sequential and data-dependent aggregation that preserve validity. For single-batch aggregation, which uses one collection of transformed datasets for both standardization and calibration, we show that the critical values uniformly improve on deterministic calibrations valid under arbitrary dependence, including Bonferroni correction, while adapting to the unknown dependence structure. We also introduce a sequential alpha-spending version that permits early rejection when evidence is strong, and a two-batch extension that separates standardization from calibration to accommodate learned aggregation rules and reduce computation. Applications to adaptive nonparametric testing and conformal prediction illustrate how these results sharpen existing aggregation methods.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Variational Learning for Insertion-based Generation

Non-monotonic sequence generation methods, such as masked diffusion models, provide a flexible alternative to left-to-right autoregressive modeling by allowing tokens to be generated in non-fixed and prescribed orders. Despite their practical advantages, most existing non-monotonic models are order-agnostic and rely on a fixed-length grid, limiting their ability to support variable-length generation and adaptive insertion order. In this work, we introduce a probabilistic framework for learning insertion order in variable-length insertion models. We formalize a bijective correspondence between insertion trajectories and permutations, which enables an exact reparameterization of the data likelihood as a sum over permutations. Building on this result, we propose the Insertion Process (IP), a stochastic generative model that jointly learns where to insert, what to insert, and when to terminate, trained via permutation-based variational inference. Unlike prior fixed-canvas approaches, IP natively supports variable-length generation and learns data-driven preferences over insertion orders. Experiments on goal-conditioned planning and molecular string generation demonstrate that learning insertion order improves both modeling quality and generalization in domains without a canonical left-to-right structure.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Perturbative methods for non-parametric instrumental variable

We introduce a perturbative approach for nonparametric instrumental variable (NPIV) estimation. By drawing inspiration from perturbation theory in physics, we extend standard kernel ridge methods with systematic higher perturbation order corrections that significantly improve estimation accuracy. Spectrally, the perturbation introduces mixing between different eigenmodes of the expectation integral operator, which becomes especially useful when the integral equation is ill-defined. One source for such ill-definedness can be the curse of dimensionality. Our method performs across various dimensionality regimes, particularly when the dimensionality parameter $\beta$ which is defined through the number of samples $n$ and dimension $d$ as $n^\beta = d$, becomes large. Experimental results show that our first-order perturbative corrections can reduce prediction error by up to 99\% in high-dimensional ill-defined cases ($\beta > 0.7$) compared to standard ridge regression approaches. The performance improvement is maintained across a wide range of dimensions, with the advantage becoming more pronounced as dimensionality increases.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Semiparametrically Efficient Inference for Kernel Measures of Noise Heterogeneity

We develop semiparametrically efficient inference for kernel measures of noise heterogeneity in additive noise models. In many applications, the regression function is estimated using flexible machine learning methods. Downstream procedures based on the resulting residuals can then inherit first-stage bias: regression error may induce spurious dependence between covariates and residuals, invalidating the assumptions needed for standard analysis. We construct a novel Hilbert-valued one-step estimator of the kernel covariance operator between covariates and residuals. Our estimator yields bootstrap-calibrated tests for residual independence and goodness of fit in additive noise models, while also providing asymptotically efficient confidence intervals for the kernel dependence measure under noise heterogeneity. The framework extends to settings with additional covariates, enabling inference on distributional heterogeneity of residual noise across treatment groups. Simulations show improved calibration and power relative to naive plug-in residual methods.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

The Illusion of Intervention: Your LLM-Simulated Experiment is an Observational Study

Large language models (LLMs) show potential as simulators of human behavior, offering a scalable way to study responses to interventions. However, because LLMs are trained largely on observational data, interventions in experiments with LLM-simulated synthetic users can induce unintended shifts in latent user attributes, causing user drift where the implicit simulated population differs across treatment conditions, potentially distorting effect estimates. We formalize the confounding or selection bias that can arise due to user drift and show how intervention-dependent shifts can inflate or attenuate observed differences in user responses under intervention. To diagnose confounding, we propose using negative control outcomes--attributes that should remain invariant under intervention--to identify distribution shifts across intervention conditions, providing evidence of user drift. To mitigate drift, we study adjusting the persona specification by eliciting additional confounders, finding that targeted, setting-relevant confounders can substantially reduce bias across survey-style and multi-turn agent evaluations.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Spectral Souping: A Unified Framework for Online Preference Alignment

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) effectively aligns Large Language Models (LLMs) with aggregate human preferences but often fails to address the diverse and conflicting needs of individual users. To overcome this issue, we introduce Spectral Souping, a unified framework for efficient, online preference alignment. Our contribution is the discovery of a universal spectral representation within LLMs, which is proven to be highly amenable to model merging. This theoretical insight enables a two-phase methodology: we first learn a basis of specialized policies offline, each focused on a distinct, fine-grained preference dimension. An online adaptation algorithm then efficiently ``soups'' these policies at inference time, either by merging their outputs or parameters, enabling rapid model adaptation without the need for costly online retraining w.r.t. tailored preference rewards. Experiments on online preference alignment benchmarks demonstrate that our method achieves significant performance improvements over existing state-of-the-art approaches, presenting a scalable and computationally efficient solution for dynamically adapting LLMs to individual user preferences.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Sobolev Regularized MMD Gradient Flow

We propose Sobolev-regularized Maximum Mean Discrepancy (SrMMD) gradient flow, a regularized variant of maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) gradient flow based on a gradient penalty on the witness function. The proposed regularization mitigates the non-convexity of the MMD objective and yields provable \emph{global} convergence guarantees in MMD in both continuous and discrete time. A more surprising appeal is that our convergence analysis does not rely on isoperimetric assumptions on the target distribution. Instead, it is based on a regularity condition on the difference between kernel mean embeddings. A key highlight of the proposed flow is that it is applicable in both sampling (from an unnormalized target distribution) -- using Stein kernels -- and generative modeling settings, unlike previous works, where a gradient flow is suitable for only generative modeling or sampling but not both. The effectiveness of the proposed flow is empirically verified on a broad range of tasks in both generative modelling and sampling.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Doubly Robust Proxy Causal Learning with Neural Mean Embeddings

Unobserved confounding prevents standard covariate adjustment from identifying causal response functions in observational studies. Proxy causal learning addresses this problem through bridge equations involving treatment- and outcome-inducing proxies, avoiding direct recovery of the latent confounder. Existing doubly robust proxy estimators combine outcome and treatment bridges, but typically rely on fixed kernels, sieves, or low-dimensional semiparametric models; existing neural proxy methods are more flexible, but are largely single-bridge estimators. We develop a neural doubly robust framework for proxy causal learning with continuous and structured treatments. Our method introduces a neural mean-embedding estimator for the treatment bridge, combines it with a neural outcome bridge, and estimates the doubly robust correction through a final regression stage. The framework covers population, heterogeneous, and conditional dose-response functions, yielding full response-curve estimators rather than binary-treatment effects. The algorithms use two stages for each bridge and history-aware updates of the final linear layers to stabilize stochastic multi-stage training. We prove consistency of the algorithms showing that the doubly robust error is controlled by the final averaging and regression errors together with the smaller of the outcome- and treatment-side weak-norm bridge errors. Across synthetic and image-valued benchmarks, the proposed estimators outperform existing baselines and single-bridge neural estimators, showing the benefit of combining learned outcome and treatment bridges in a doubly robust construction. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/BariscanBozkurt/DRPCL-Neural-Mean-Embedding.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Semiparametric Efficient Test for Interpretable Distributional Treatment Effects

Distributional treatment effects can be invisible to means: a treatment may preserve average outcomes while changing tails, modes, dispersion, or rare-event probabilities. Kernel tests can detect discrepancies between interventional outcome laws, but global tests do not reveal where the laws differ. We propose DR-ME, to our knowledge the first semiparametrically efficient finite-location test for interpretable distributional treatment effects. DR-ME evaluates an interventional kernel witness at learned outcome locations, returning causal-discrepancy coordinates rather than only a global rejection. From observational data, we derive orthogonal doubly robust kernel features whose centered oracle form is the canonical gradient of this finite witness. For fixed locations, we characterize the local testing limit: DR-ME is chi-square calibrated under the null, has noncentral chi-square local power, and uses the covariance whitening that optimizes local signal-to-noise for discrepancies visible through the selected coordinates. This efficient local-power geometry yields a principled location-learning criterion, with sample splitting preserving post-selection validity. Experiments show near-nominal type-I error, competitive power against global doubly robust kernel tests, and interpretable learned locations that localize distributional effects in a semi-synthetic medical-imaging study.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

On the Wasserstein Gradient Flow Interpretation of Drifting Models

Recently, Deng et al. (2026) proposed Generative Modeling via Drifting (GMD), a novel framework for generative tasks. This note presents an analysis of GMD through the lens of Wasserstein Gradient Flows (WGF), i.e., the path of steepest descent for a functional in the space of probability measures, equipped with the geometry of optimal transport. Unlike previous WGF-based contributions, GMD can be thought of as directly targeting a fixed point of a specific WGF flow. We demonstrate three main results: first, that one algorithm proposed by Deng et al. (2026) corresponds to finding the limiting point of a WGF on the KL divergence, with Parzen smoothing on the densities. Second, that the algorithm actually implemented by Deng et al. (2026) corresponds to a different procedure, which bears some resemblance to the fixed point of a WGF on the Sinkhorn divergence, but lacks certain desirable properties of the latter. Third, the same same idea can be extended to the limiting point of other WGFs, including the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), the sliced Wasserstein distance, and GAN critic functions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Analysis Without Structural Equations: Debiased Inference on Functionals of Inverse Problems with No Solutions

We consider debiased inference on finite-dimensional functionals of infinite-dimensional least-squares solutions to inverse problems as a way to avoid having to assume exact solutions exist. Such assumptions are substantive and not innocuous, and their failure may imperil inference when we impose them on the statistical model. Our approach instead allows us to conduct inference on a quantity that is defined regardless of solutions existing and coincides with the usual estimands when they do. For the case of instrumental variables, this means we can motivate the analysis with structural models but these do not need to hold exactly for the semiparametric inferential procedure to remain valid.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Efficient Inference after Directionally Stable Adaptive Experiments

We study inference on scalar-valued pathwise differentiable targets after adaptive data collection, such as a bandit algorithm. We introduce a novel target-specific condition, directional stability, which is strictly weaker than previously imposed target-agnostic stability conditions. Under directional stability, we show that estimators that would have been efficient under i.i.d. data remain asymptotically normal and semiparametrically efficient when computed from adaptively collected trajectories. The canonical gradient has a martingale form, and directional stability guarantees stabilization of its predictable quadratic variation, enabling high-dimensional asymptotic normality. We characterize efficiency using a convolution theorem for the adaptive-data setting, and give a condition under which the one-step estimator attains the efficiency bound. We verify directional stability for LinUCB, yielding the first semiparametric efficiency guarantee for a regular scalar target under LinUCB sampling.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Regularized $f$-Divergence Kernel Tests

We propose a framework to construct practical kernel-based two-sample tests from the family of $f$-divergences. The test statistic is computed from the witness function of a regularized variational representation of the divergence, which we estimate using kernel methods. The proposed test is adaptive over hyperparameters such as the kernel bandwidth and the regularization parameter. We provide theoretical guarantees for statistical test power across our family of $f$-divergence estimates. While our test covers a variety of $f$-divergences, we bring particular focus to the Hockey-Stick divergence, motivated by its applications to differential privacy auditing and machine unlearning evaluation. For two-sample testing, experiments demonstrate that different $f$-divergences are sensitive to different localized differences, illustrating the importance of leveraging diverse statistics. For machine unlearning, we propose a relative test that distinguishes true unlearning failures from safe distributional variations.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

On the Hardness of Conditional Independence Testing In Practice

Tests of conditional independence (CI) underpin a number of important problems in machine learning and statistics, from causal discovery to evaluation of predictor fairness and out-of-distribution robustness. Shah and Peters (2020) showed that, contrary to the unconditional case, no universally finite-sample valid test can ever achieve nontrivial power. While informative, this result (based on "hiding" dependence) does not seem to explain the frequent practical failures observed with popular CI tests. We investigate the Kernel-based Conditional Independence (KCI) test - of which we show the Generalized Covariance Measure underlying many recent tests is nearly a special case - and identify the major factors underlying its practical behavior. We highlight the key role of errors in the conditional mean embedding estimate for the Type-I error, while pointing out the importance of selecting an appropriate conditioning kernel (not recognized in previous work) as being necessary for good test power but also tending to inflate Type-I error.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Outcome-Aware Spectral Feature Learning for Instrumental Variable Regression

We address the problem of causal effect estimation in the presence of hidden confounders using nonparametric instrumental variable (IV) regression. An established approach is to use estimators based on learned spectral features, that is, features spanning the top singular subspaces of the operator linking treatments to instruments. While powerful, such features are agnostic to the outcome variable. Consequently, the method can fail when the true causal function is poorly represented by these dominant singular functions. To mitigate, we introduce Augmented Spectral Feature Learning, a framework that makes the feature learning process outcome-aware. Our method learns features by minimizing a novel contrastive loss derived from an augmented operator that incorporates information from the outcome. By learning these task-specific features, our approach remains effective even under spectral misalignment. We provide a theoretical analysis of this framework and validate our approach on challenging benchmarks.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Regression with Observed Covariates

We study the problem of nonparametric instrumental variable regression with observed covariates, which we refer to as NPIV-O. Compared with standard nonparametric instrumental variable regression (NPIV), the additional observed covariates facilitate causal identification and enables heterogeneous causal effect estimation. However, the presence of observed covariates introduces two challenges for its theoretical analysis. First, it induces a partial identity structure, which renders previous NPIV analyses - based on measures of ill-posedness, stability conditions, or link conditions - inapplicable. Second, it imposes anisotropic smoothness on the structural function. To address the first challenge, we introduce a novel Fourier measure of partial smoothing; for the second challenge, we extend the existing kernel 2SLS instrumental variable algorithm with observed covariates, termed KIV-O, to incorporate Gaussian kernel lengthscales adaptive to the anisotropic smoothness. We prove upper $L^2$-learning rates for KIV-O and the first $L^2$-minimax lower learning rates for NPIV-O. Both rates interpolate between known optimal rates of NPIV and nonparametric regression (NPR). Interestingly, we identify a gap between our upper and lower bounds, which arises from the choice of kernel lengthscales tuned to minimize a projected risk. Our theoretical analysis also applies to proximal causal inference, an emerging framework for causal effect estimation that shares the same conditional moment restriction as NPIV-O.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Towards a Unified Analysis of Neural Networks in Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Regression: Optimization and Generalization

We establish the first global convergence result of neural networks for two stage least squares (2SLS) approach in nonparametric instrumental variable regression (NPIV). This is achieved by adopting a lifted perspective through mean-field Langevin dynamics (MFLD), unlike standard MFLD, however, our setting of 2SLS entails a \emph{bilevel} optimization problem in the space of probability measures. To address this challenge, we leverage the penalty gradient approach recently developed for bilevel optimization which formulates bilevel optimization as a Lagrangian problem. This leads to a novel fully first-order algorithm, termed \texttt{F$^2$BMLD}. Apart from the convergence bound, we further provide a generalization bound, revealing an inherent trade-off in the choice of the Lagrange multiplier between optimization and statistical guarantees. Finally, we empirically validate the effectiveness of the proposed method on an offline reinforcement learning benchmark.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Fast Best-in-Class Regret for Contextual Bandits

We study the problem of stochastic contextual bandits in the agnostic setting, where the goal is to compete with the best policy in a given class without assuming realizability or imposing model restrictions on losses or rewards. In this work, we establish the first fast rate for regret relative to the best-in-class policy. Our proposed algorithm updates the policy at every round by minimizing a pessimistic objective, defined as a clipped inverse-propensity estimate of the policy value plus a variance penalty. By leveraging entropy assumptions on the policy class and a H\"olderian error-bound condition (a generalization of the margin condition), we achieve fast best-in-class regret rates, including polylogarithmic rates in the parametric case. The analysis is driven by a sequential self-normalized maximal inequality for bounded martingale empirical processes, which yields uniform variance-adaptive confidence bounds and guarantees pessimism under adaptive data collection.

stat.ML↗