arXiv subjects

Arthur Gretton

Publications and source records attributed to Arthur Gretton.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Accelerated Diffusion Models via Speculative Sampling

Speculative sampling is a popular technique for accelerating inference in Large Language Models by generating candidate tokens using a fast draft model and accepting or rejecting them based on the target model's distribution. While speculative sampling was previously limited to discrete sequences, we extend it to diffusion models, which generate samples via continuous, vector-valued Markov chains. In this context, the target model is a high-quality but computationally expensive diffusion model. We propose various drafting strategies, including a simple and effective approach that does not require training a draft model and is applicable out of the box to any diffusion model. Our experiments demonstrate significant generation speedup on various diffusion models, halving the number of function evaluations, while generating exact samples from the target model.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Controlling Moments with Kernel Stein Discrepancies

Kernel Stein discrepancies (KSDs) measure the quality of a distributional approximation and can be computed even when the target density has an intractable normalizing constant. Notable applications include the diagnosis of approximate MCMC samplers and goodness-of-fit tests for unnormalized statistical models. The present work analyzes the convergence control properties of KSDs. We first show that standard KSDs used for weak convergence control fail to control moment convergence. To address this limitation, we next provide sufficient conditions under which alternative diffusion KSDs control both moment and weak convergence. As an immediate consequence we develop, for each $q > 0$, the first KSDs known to exactly characterize $q$-Wasserstein convergence.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Nonlinear Meta-Learning Can Guarantee Faster Rates

Many recent theoretical works on \emph{meta-learning} aim to achieve guarantees in leveraging similar representational structures from related tasks towards simplifying a target task. The main aim of theoretical guarantees on the subject is to establish the extent to which convergence rates -- in learning a common representation -- \emph{may scale with the number $N$ of tasks} (as well as the number of samples per task). First steps in this setting demonstrate this property when both the shared representation amongst tasks, and task-specific regression functions, are linear. This linear setting readily reveals the benefits of aggregating tasks, e.g., via averaging arguments. In practice, however, the representation is often highly nonlinear, introducing nontrivial biases in each task that cannot easily be averaged out as in the linear case. In the present work, we derive theoretical guarantees for meta-learning with nonlinear representations. In particular, assuming the shared nonlinearity maps to an infinite dimensional reproducing kernel Hilbert space, we show that additional biases can be mitigated with careful regularization that leverages the smoothness of task-specific regression functions, yielding improved rates that scale with the number of tasks as desired.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

A Unified Data Representation Learning for Non-parametric Two-sample Testing

Learning effective data representations has been crucial in non-parametric two-sample testing. Common approaches will first split data into training and test sets and then learn data representations purely on the training set. However, recent theoretical studies have shown that, as long as the sample indexes are not used during the learning process, the whole data can be used to learn data representations, meanwhile ensuring control of Type-I errors. The above fact motivates us to use the test set (but without sample indexes) to facilitate the data representation learning in the testing. To this end, we propose a representation-learning two-sample testing (RL-TST) framework. RL-TST first performs purely self-supervised representation learning on the entire dataset to capture inherent representations (IRs) that reflect the underlying data manifold. A discriminative model is then trained on these IRs to learn discriminative representations (DRs), enabling the framework to leverage both the rich structural information from IRs and the discriminative power of DRs. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RL-TST outperforms representative approaches by simultaneously using data manifold information in the test set and enhancing test power via finding the DRs with the training set.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Composite Goodness-of-fit Tests with Kernels

Model misspecification can create significant challenges for the implementation of probabilistic models, and this has led to development of a range of robust methods which directly account for this issue. However, whether these more involved methods are required will depend on whether the model is really misspecified, and there is a lack of generally applicable methods to answer this question. In this paper, we propose one such method. More precisely, we propose kernel-based hypothesis tests for the challenging composite testing problem, where we are interested in whether the data comes from any distribution in some parametric family. Our tests make use of minimum distance estimators based on the maximum mean discrepancy and the kernel Stein discrepancy. They are widely applicable, including whenever the density of the parametric model is known up to normalisation constant, or if the model takes the form of a simulator. As our main result, we show that we are able to estimate the parameter and conduct our test on the same data (without data splitting), while maintaining a correct test level. Our approach is illustrated on a range of problems, including testing for goodness-of-fit of an unnormalised non-parametric density model, and an intractable generative model of a biological cellular network.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Kernel Single Proxy Control for Deterministic Confounding

We consider the problem of causal effect estimation with an unobserved confounder, where we observe a single proxy variable that is associated with the confounder. Although it has been shown that the recovery of an average causal effect is impossible in general from a single proxy variable, we show that causal recovery is possible if the outcome is generated deterministically. This generalizes existing work on causal methods with a single proxy variable to the continuous treatment setting. We propose two kernel-based methods for this setting: the first based on the two-stage regression approach, and the second based on a maximum moment restriction approach. We prove that both approaches can consistently estimate the causal effect, and we empirically demonstrate that we can successfully recover the causal effect on challenging synthetic benchmarks.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Sequential Kernel Embedding for Mediated and Time-Varying Dose Response Curves

We propose simple nonparametric estimators for mediated and time-varying dose response curves based on kernel ridge regression. By embedding Pearl's mediation formula and Robins' g-formula with kernels, we allow treatments, mediators, and covariates to be continuous in general spaces, and also allow for nonlinear treatment-confounder feedback. Our key innovation is a reproducing kernel Hilbert space technique called sequential kernel embedding, which we use to construct simple estimators that account for complex feedback. Our estimators preserve the generality of classic identification while also achieving nonasymptotic uniform rates. In nonlinear simulations with many covariates, we demonstrate strong performance. We estimate mediated and time-varying dose response curves of the US Job Corps, and clean data that may serve as a benchmark in future work. We extend our results to mediated and time-varying treatment effects and counterfactual distributions, verifying semiparametric efficiency and weak convergence.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Credal Two-Sample Tests of Epistemic Uncertainty

We introduce credal two-sample testing, a new hypothesis testing framework for comparing credal sets -- convex sets of probability measures where each element captures aleatoric uncertainty and the set itself represents epistemic uncertainty that arises from the modeller's partial ignorance. Compared to classical two-sample tests, which focus on comparing precise distributions, the proposed framework provides a broader and more versatile set of hypotheses. This approach enables the direct integration of epistemic uncertainty, effectively addressing the challenges arising from partial ignorance in hypothesis testing. By generalising two-sample test to compare credal sets, our framework enables reasoning for equality, inclusion, intersection, and mutual exclusivity, each offering unique insights into the modeller's epistemic beliefs. As the first work on nonparametric hypothesis testing for comparing credal sets, we focus on finitely generated credal sets derived from i.i.d. samples from multiple distributions -- referred to as credal samples. We formalise these tests as two-sample tests with nuisance parameters and introduce the first permutation-based solution for this class of problems, significantly improving existing methods. Our approach properly incorporates the modeller's epistemic uncertainty into hypothesis testing, leading to more robust and credible conclusions, with kernel-based implementations for real-world applications.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Spectral Representation for Causal Estimation with Hidden Confounders

We address the problem of causal effect estimation where hidden confounders are present, with a focus on two settings: instrumental variable regression with additional observed confounders, and proxy causal learning. Our approach uses a singular value decomposition of a conditional expectation operator, followed by a saddle-point optimization problem, which, in the context of IV regression, can be thought of as a neural net generalization of the seminal approach due to Darolles et al. [2011]. Saddle-point formulations have gathered considerable attention recently, as they can avoid double sampling bias and are amenable to modern function approximation methods. We provide experimental validation in various settings, and show that our approach outperforms existing methods on common benchmarks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Optimality and Adaptivity of Deep Neural Features for Instrumental Variable Regression

We provide a convergence analysis of deep feature instrumental variable (DFIV) regression (Xu et al., 2021), a nonparametric approach to IV regression using data-adaptive features learned by deep neural networks in two stages. We prove that the DFIV algorithm achieves the minimax optimal learning rate when the target structural function lies in a Besov space. This is shown under standard nonparametric IV assumptions, and an additional smoothness assumption on the regularity of the conditional distribution of the covariate given the instrument, which controls the difficulty of Stage 1. We further demonstrate that DFIV, as a data-adaptive algorithm, is superior to fixed-feature (kernel or sieve) IV methods in two ways. First, when the target function possesses low spatial homogeneity (i.e., it has both smooth and spiky/discontinuous regions), DFIV still achieves the optimal rate, while fixed-feature methods are shown to be strictly suboptimal. Second, comparing with kernel-based two-stage regression estimators, DFIV is provably more data efficient in the Stage 1 samples.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Prompting Strategies for Enabling Large Language Models to Infer Causation from Correlation

The reasoning abilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) are attracting increasing attention. In this work, we focus on causal reasoning and address the task of establishing causal relationships based on correlation information, a highly challenging problem on which several LLMs have shown poor performance. We introduce a prompting strategy for this problem that breaks the original task into fixed subquestions, with each subquestion corresponding to one step of a formal causal discovery algorithm, the PC algorithm. The proposed prompting strategy, PC-SubQ, guides the LLM to follow these algorithmic steps, by sequentially prompting it with one subquestion at a time, augmenting the next subquestion's prompt with the answer to the previous one(s). We evaluate our approach on an existing causal benchmark, Corr2Cause: our experiments indicate a performance improvement across five LLMs when comparing PC-SubQ to baseline prompting strategies. Results are robust to causal query perturbations, when modifying the variable names or paraphrasing the expressions.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Mind the Graph When Balancing Data for Fairness or Robustness

Failures of fairness or robustness in machine learning predictive settings can be due to undesired dependencies between covariates, outcomes and auxiliary factors of variation. A common strategy to mitigate these failures is data balancing, which attempts to remove those undesired dependencies. In this work, we define conditions on the training distribution for data balancing to lead to fair or robust models. Our results display that, in many cases, the balanced distribution does not correspond to selectively removing the undesired dependencies in a causal graph of the task, leading to multiple failure modes and even interference with other mitigation techniques such as regularization. Overall, our results highlight the importance of taking the causal graph into account before performing data balancing.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Foundations of Multivariate Distributional Reinforcement Learning

In reinforcement learning (RL), the consideration of multivariate reward signals has led to fundamental advancements in multi-objective decision-making, transfer learning, and representation learning. This work introduces the first oracle-free and computationally-tractable algorithms for provably convergent multivariate distributional dynamic programming and temporal difference learning. Our convergence rates match the familiar rates in the scalar reward setting, and additionally provide new insights into the fidelity of approximate return distribution representations as a function of the reward dimension. Surprisingly, when the reward dimension is larger than $1$, we show that standard analysis of categorical TD learning fails, which we resolve with a novel projection onto the space of mass-$1$ signed measures. Finally, with the aid of our technical results and simulations, we identify tradeoffs between distribution representations that influence the performance of multivariate distributional RL in practice.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Towards Optimal Sobolev Norm Rates for the Vector-Valued Regularized Least-Squares Algorithm

We present the first optimal rates for infinite-dimensional vector-valued ridge regression on a continuous scale of norms that interpolate between $L_2$ and the hypothesis space, which we consider as a vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert space. These rates allow to treat the misspecified case in which the true regression function is not contained in the hypothesis space. We combine standard assumptions on the capacity of the hypothesis space with a novel tensor product construction of vector-valued interpolation spaces in order to characterize the smoothness of the regression function. Our upper bound not only attains the same rate as real-valued kernel ridge regression, but also removes the assumption that the target regression function is bounded. For the lower bound, we reduce the problem to the scalar setting using a projection argument. We show that these rates are optimal in most cases and independent of the dimension of the output space. We illustrate our results for the special case of vector-valued Sobolev spaces.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Conditional Bayesian Quadrature

We propose a novel approach for estimating conditional or parametric expectations in the setting where obtaining samples or evaluating integrands is costly. Through the framework of probabilistic numerical methods (such as Bayesian quadrature), our novel approach allows to incorporates prior information about the integrands especially the prior smoothness knowledge about the integrands and the conditional expectation. As a result, our approach provides a way of quantifying uncertainty and leads to a fast convergence rate, which is confirmed both theoretically and empirically on challenging tasks in Bayesian sensitivity analysis, computational finance and decision making under uncertainty.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Deep Proxy Causal Learning and its Application to Confounded Bandit Policy Evaluation

Proxy causal learning (PCL) is a method for estimating the causal effect of treatments on outcomes in the presence of unobserved confounding, using proxies (structured side information) for the confounder. This is achieved via two-stage regression: in the first stage, we model relations among the treatment and proxies; in the second stage, we use this model to learn the effect of treatment on the outcome, given the context provided by the proxies. PCL guarantees recovery of the true causal effect, subject to identifiability conditions. We propose a novel method for PCL, the deep feature proxy variable method (DFPV), to address the case where the proxies, treatments, and outcomes are high-dimensional and have nonlinear complex relationships, as represented by deep neural network features. We show that DFPV outperforms recent state-of-the-art PCL methods on challenging synthetic benchmarks, including settings involving high dimensional image data. Furthermore, we show that PCL can be applied to off-policy evaluation for the confounded bandit problem, in which DFPV also exhibits competitive performance.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

A Distributional Analogue to the Successor Representation

This paper contributes a new approach for distributional reinforcement learning which elucidates a clean separation of transition structure and reward in the learning process. Analogous to how the successor representation (SR) describes the expected consequences of behaving according to a given policy, our distributional successor measure (SM) describes the distributional consequences of this behaviour. We formulate the distributional SM as a distribution over distributions and provide theory connecting it with distributional and model-based reinforcement learning. Moreover, we propose an algorithm that learns the distributional SM from data by minimizing a two-level maximum mean discrepancy. Key to our method are a number of algorithmic techniques that are independently valuable for learning generative models of state. As an illustration of the usefulness of the distributional SM, we show that it enables zero-shot risk-sensitive policy evaluation in a way that was not previously possible.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Optimal Rates for Vector-Valued Spectral Regularization Learning Algorithms

We study theoretical properties of a broad class of regularized algorithms with vector-valued output. These spectral algorithms include kernel ridge regression, kernel principal component regression, various implementations of gradient descent and many more. Our contributions are twofold. First, we rigorously confirm the so-called saturation effect for ridge regression with vector-valued output by deriving a novel lower bound on learning rates; this bound is shown to be suboptimal when the smoothness of the regression function exceeds a certain level. Second, we present the upper bound for the finite sample risk general vector-valued spectral algorithms, applicable to both well-specified and misspecified scenarios (where the true regression function lies outside of the hypothesis space) which is minimax optimal in various regimes. All of our results explicitly allow the case of infinite-dimensional output variables, proving consistency of recent practical applications.

stat.ML↗