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Arthur Loureiro

Publications and source records attributed to Arthur Loureiro.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

The Manticore Project II: Bayesian digital twins of cosmic structure across the SDSS and BOSS volumes

We present Manticore-Deep, a high-resolution Bayesian field-level reconstruction of cosmic large-scale structure over a comoving volume of $(4~h^{-1}\mathrm{Gpc})^{3}$ to $z\approx0.7$ at ${\sim}4$~Mpc/h resolution. Extending the companion Manticore-Local analysis (Paper~I), Manticore-Deep jointly constrains five galaxy redshift surveys within a single hierarchical Bayesian framework using the BORG algorithm. The inference reconstructs primordial initial conditions evolved under gravity, yielding a posterior ensemble of three-dimensional density and velocity fields that causally reproduce the observed large-scale structure. A novel tiled inference strategy extends the reconstructed volume by more than an order of magnitude beyond Paper~I. Posterior realisations are consistent with LCDM, reproducing Gaussian isotropic initial conditions and the expected $z=0$ matter power spectrum, bispectrum, and halo mass function over the resolved scales. We validate the reconstruction using two independent template-free posterior-predictive tests against observations excluded from the inference. Cross-correlation with the \textit{Planck} PR3 CMB lensing map yields a cumulative detection significance of 7.4 $σ$, while velocity-weighted stacking of $64{,}750$ galaxy clusters on the \textit{Planck} 217~GHz map detects the kinetic Sunyaev--Zel'dovich effect at $3.5σ$, with a model-independent approach--recession split confirming the inferred velocities. Together, these tests validate both the projected-density and three-dimensional velocity fields recovered by Manticore-Deep. The BOSS Great Wall is recovered as a ${\sim}3σ$ overdensity consistent with LCDM across the posterior ensemble. Manticore-Deep establishes a benchmark for survey-depth constrained cosmological digital twins and reproducible field-level validation of large-scale structure reconstructions.

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Fisher Forecasting for the DESC with $\texttt{Augur}$

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) has begun its ten-year survey of the entire visible southern hemisphere. To ensure robust cosmological measurements, computationally inexpensive investigations of modeling choices must be made to gauge the performance of proposed cosmological analyses. In this paper, we introduce the $\texttt{Augur}$ tool of the Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC), which provides Fisher forecasts for cosmological inference for the LSST using software frameworks designed for DESC science. We test the pipeline by comparing it to forecasts produced by external code and direct sampling of the posterior via nested sampling methods, finding good agreement between all methods. We additionally investigate a range of modeling and hyperparameter choices for a 3$\times$2pt investigation in harmonic space, providing users with diagnostics to obtain reliable forecasts. $\texttt{Augur}$ will be continually updated to be compatible with the other tools in the DESC software ecosystem as additional probes and functionality become available.

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cloelib: A Flexible Python Library for Computing Cosmological Observables in the Euclid Era

cloelib is a Python library developed to compute cosmological observables within the Cosmology Likelihood for Observables in Euclid (CLOE) ecosystem (cloe-org). As cosmology enters a precision era driven by galaxy survey missions such as Euclid, there is a growing need for flexible, efficient, and differentiable software capable of supporting next-generation inference pipelines. cloelib addresses these demands through a modular architecture that interfaces seamlessly with established Boltzmann solvers whilst incorporating JAX-based automatic differentiation to enable gradient-based methods. The library defines consistent protocols for background evolution, perturbations, and non-linear structure formation, and supports a wide range of observables, including photometric and spectroscopic large-scale structure probes, as well as cross-correlations with the Cosmic Microwave Background and galaxy clusters. In its finalised form, cloelib is intended to serve as the reference theory computation infrastructure for Euclid's first cosmological release, bridging traditional numerical cosmology with modern optimisation techniques and emerging machine learning approaches to inference.

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KiDS-Legacy: Constraining dark energy, neutrino mass, and curvature

We constrained minimally extended cosmological models with the cosmic shear analysis of the final data release from the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-Legacy) in combination with external probes. Due to the consistency of the KiDS-Legacy analysis with the cosmic microwave background (CMB), we could combine these datasets reliably for the first time. Additionally, we used CMB lensing, galaxy redshift-space distortions, and baryon acoustic oscillations. We assessed, in turn, the effects of spatial curvature, varying neutrino masses, and an evolving dark energy component on cosmological constraints from KiDS-Legacy alone and from KiDS-Legacy combined with external probes. We find KiDS-Legacy to be consistent with the fiducial flat $Λ$-cold dark matter ($Λ$CDM) analysis with $c^2 \sum m_ν\leq 1.5\,$eV, $w_0 = -1.0\pm 0.7$, and $w_a = -1.3^{+1.9}_{-2.0}$ while $Ω_K = 0.08^{+0.16}_{-0.17}$ (1$σ$ bounds) with an almost equal goodness of fit. The $w_0w_a$CDM model is not a significant improvement over $Λ$CDM when cosmic shear and CMB lensing are combined, yielding a Bayes factor $B = 0.07$. If all probes are combined, however, $B$ increases to 2.73, corresponding to a $2.6σ$ suspiciousness tension. The constraint on $S_8 = σ_8\sqrt{Ω_\mathrm{m}/0.3}$ is robust to opening up the parameter space for cosmic shear. Adding all external datasets to KiDS-Legacy, we find $S_8 = 0.816 \pm 0.006$ in $Λ$CDM and $S_8 = 0.837 \pm 0.008$ in $w_0 w_a$CDM for all probes combined.

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Smokescreen: A Python package for data vector blinding and encryption in cosmological analyses

Smokescreen is an open-source Python library for data-vector concealment (blinding) in cosmological analyses. Data-vector blinding works by applying cosmology-dependent shifts to the observed data vector, moving it away from the true cosmological signal without affecting its statistical properties, so that analysts cannot infer the true result until the analysis is frozen and the blinding is lifted. The package computes these shifts using Firecrown likelihoods applied to data vectors stored in the SACC format, ensuring that the theoretical model used for blinding is identical to that used for inference whilst remaining agnostic to the specific observable being blinded. To prevent accidental unblinding, the original SACC file, containing the true cosmology, is encrypted. Although developed for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), Smokescreen is applicable to any experiment using Firecrown likelihoods and the SACC data format.

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KiDS-Legacy: Constraints on Horndeski gravity from weak lensing combined with galaxy clustering and cosmic microwave background anisotropies

We present constraints on modified gravity from a cosmic shear analysis of the final data release of the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-Legacy) in combination with DESI measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations, eBOSS observations of redshift space distortions, and cosmic microwave background anisotropies from Planck. We study the Horndeski class of modified gravity models in an effective field theory framework employing a parameterisation that satisfies stability conditions by construction and, for the first time, present a cosmological analysis in this inherently stable parameter basis. Cosmic shear constrains the Horndeski parameter space significantly, matching or surpassing the CMB contribution. Adopting the de-mixed kinetic term of the scalar field perturbation, $D_{\rm kin}$, and the deviation of the Planck mass from its fiducial value, $ΔM_*^2\equiv M_*^2-1$, as model parameters, we constrain their present values to be $Δ\hat{M}_*^2=0.32^{+0.07}_{-0.21}$ and $\hat{D}_{\rm kin} = 3.74^{+0.69}_{-1.92}$, which deviate from general relativity at $1.5σ$ and $1.9σ$, respectively. We derive constraints on the structure growth parameter $S_8=0.813^{+0.008}_{-0.011}$, which is compatible with the $Λ$CDM constraint at $0.54σ$. We obtain the deviation of the effective Newtonian coupling from the GR value as $Δμ_{\infty,{\rm eff}}=0.066\pm0.023$, corresponding to a $2.9σ$ significance. Although modified gravity provides a slightly better fit to the data, a model comparison shows only a weak preference for modified gravity at the $1.4σ$ level. When adopting a dynamical dark energy model of the background cosmology, the inferred modified gravity parameter constraints are stable with respect to a $Λ$CDM background, while a mild preference at $1.57σ$ for dynamical dark energy remains.

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pop-cosmos: Forward modeling KiDS-1000 redshift distributions using realistic galaxy populations

The accuracy of the cosmological constraints from Stage~IV galaxy surveys will be limited by how well the galaxy redshift distributions can be inferred. We have addressed this challenging problem for the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS) cosmic shear sample by developing a forward-modeling framework with two main ingredients: (1) the \texttt{pop-cosmos} generative model for the evolving galaxy population, calibrated on \textit{Spitzer} IRAC $\textit{Ch.\,1}<26$ galaxies from COSMOS2020; and (2) a data model for noise and selection, machine-learned from the SURFS-based KiDS-Legacy-Like Simulations (SKiLLS). Applying KiDS tomographic binning to our synthetic photometric data, we infer redshift distributions in each of five bins directly from the population and data models, bypassing the need for spectroscopic reweighting. Keeping the data model fixed, we compare results using two different galaxy population models: \texttt{pop-cosmos}; and \texttt{shark}, the semi-analytic galaxy formation model used in SKiLLS. In the first ($0.1<z<0.3$) and last ($0.9<z<1.2$) tomographic bins we find systematic differences in the mean redshifts of $Δz\sim0.05$-$0.1$, comparable to the reported uncertainties from spectroscopic reweighting methods. This work paves the way for accurate redshift distribution calibration for Stage~IV surveys directly through forward modeling, thus providing an independent cross-check on spectroscopic-based calibrations which avoids their selection biases and incompleteness. We will use the \texttt{pop-cosmos} redshift distributions in an upcoming full KiDS cosmology reanalysis.

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Reconstructing the largest scales of the Universe with field-level inference applied to the Quaia Quasar Catalogue

The recently released Quaia quasar catalogue, with its broad redshift range and all-sky coverage, enables unprecedented three-dimensional reconstructions of matter across cosmic time. In this work, we apply the field-level inference algorithm BORG to the Quaia catalogues to reconstruct the initial conditions and present-day matter distribution of the Universe. We employ a physics-based forward model of large-scale structure using Lagrangian perturbation theory, incorporating light-cone effects, redshift-space distortions, quasar bias, and survey selection effects. This approach enables a detailed and physically motivated inference of the three-dimensional density field and initial conditions over the entire cosmic volume considered. We analyse both the G < 20.0 (Quaia Clean) and G < 20.5 (Quaia Deep) samples, where G denotes the Gaia broad optical-band magnitude, imposing conservative sky cuts to ensure robustness against foreground contamination. The resulting reconstructions span a comoving volume of (10h^{-1} Gpc)^3 with a maximum spatial resolution of 39.1 h^{-1}Mpc, making this the largest field-level reconstruction of the observable Universe in terms of comoving volume to date. We validate our reconstructions through a range of internal and external consistency checks, including the cross-correlation of the inferred density fields with Planck CMB lensing, where we detect a signal at ~4σsignificance. Beyond delivering high-fidelity data products, including posterior maps of initial conditions, present-day dark matter, and velocity fields, this work establishes a framework for exploiting quasar surveys in field-level cosmology.

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Almanac: HMC sampling with bounded velocity

In Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling, the shape of the potential and the choice of the momentum distribution jointly give rise to the Hamiltonian dynamics of the sampler. An efficient sampler propagates quickly in all regions of the parameter space, so that the chain has a low autocorrelation length and the sampler has a high acceptance rate, with the goal of optimising the number of near-independent samples for given computational cost. Standard Gaussian momentum distributions allow arbitrarily large velocities, which can lead to inefficient exploration in posteriors with ridges or funnel-like geometries. We investigate alternative momentum distributions based on relativistic and Student's t kinetic energies, which naturally limit particle velocities and may improve robustness. Using Almanac, a sampler for cosmological posterior distributions of sky maps and power spectra on the sphere, we test these alternatives in both low- and high-dimensional settings. We find that the choice of parameterization and momentum distribution can improve convergence and effective sample rate, though the achievable gains are generally modest and strongly problem-dependent, reaching up to an order of magnitude in favorable cases. Among the momentum distributions that we tested, those with moderately heavy tails achieved the best balance between efficiency and stability. These results highlight the importance of sampler design and encourage future work on adaptive and self-tuning strategies for kinetic energy parameter optimization in high-dimensional settings.

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Flinch: A Differentiable Framework for Field-Level Inference of Cosmological parameters from curved sky data

We present Flinch, a fully differentiable and high-performance framework for field-level inference on angular maps, developed to improve the flexibility and scalability of current methodologies. Flinch is integrated with differentiable cosmology tools, allowing gradients to propagate from individual map pixels directly to the underlying cosmological parameters. This architecture allows cosmological inference to be carried out directly from the map itself, bypassing the need to specify a likelihood for intermediate summary statistics. Using simulated, masked CMB temperature maps, we validate our pipeline by reconstructing both maps and angular power spectra, and we perform cosmological parameter inference with competitive precision. In comparison with the standard pseudo-$C_\ell$ approach, Flinch delivers substantially tighter constraints, with error bars reduced by up to 40%. Among the gradient-based samplers routinely employed in field-level analyses, we further show that MicroCanonical Langevin Monte Carlo provides orders-of-magnitude improvements in sampling efficiency over currently employed Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samplers, greatly reducing computational expense.

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KiDS-Legacy: Cosmological constraints from cosmic shear with the complete Kilo-Degree Survey

We present cosmic shear constraints from the completed Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS), where the cosmological parameter $S_8\equivσ_8\sqrt{Ω_{\rm m}/0.3} = 0.815^{+0.016}_{-0.021}$, is found to be in agreement ($0.73σ$) with results from the Planck Legacy cosmic microwave background experiment. The final KiDS footprint spans $1347$ square degrees of deep nine-band imaging across the optical and near-infrared, along with an extra $23$ square degrees of KiDS-like calibration observations of deep spectroscopic surveys. Improvements in our redshift distribution estimation methodology, combined with our enhanced calibration data and multi-band image simulations, allow us to extend our lensed sample out to a photometric redshift of $z_{\rm B}\leq2.0$. Compared to previous KiDS analyses, the increased survey area and redshift depth results in a $\sim32\%$ improvement in constraining power in terms of $Σ_8\equivσ_8\left(Ω_{\rm m}/0.3\right)^α= 0.821^{+0.014}_{-0.016}$, where $α= 0.58$ has been optimised to match the revised degeneracy direction of $σ_8$ and $Ω_{\rm m}$. We adopt a new physically motivated intrinsic alignment model that depends jointly on the galaxy sample's halo mass and spectral type distributions, and that is informed by previous direct alignment measurements. We also marginalise over our uncertainty on the impact of baryon feedback on the non-linear matter power spectrum. Comparing to previous KiDS analyses, we conclude that the increase seen in $S_8$ primarily results from our improved redshift distribution estimation and calibration, as well as new survey area and improved image reduction. Our companion paper Stölzner et al. (submitted) presents a full suite of internal and external consistency tests, finding the KiDS-Legacy data set to be the most internally robust sample produced by KiDS to date.

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KiDS-Legacy: Redshift distributions and their calibration

We present the redshift calibration methodology and bias estimates for the cosmic shear analysis of the fifth and final data release (DR5) of the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS). KiDS-DR5 includes a greatly expanded compilation of calibrating spectra, drawn from $27$ square degrees of dedicated optical and near-IR imaging taken over deep spectroscopic fields. The redshift distribution calibration leverages a range of new methods and updated simulations to produce the most precise $N(z)$ bias estimates used by KiDS to date. Improvements to our colour-based redshift distribution measurement method (SOM) mean that we are able to use many more sources per tomographic bin for our cosmological analyses, and better estimate the representation of our source sample given the available spec-$z$. We validate our colour-based redshift distribution estimates with spectroscopic cross-correlations (CC). We find that improvements to our cross-correlation redshift distribution measurement methods mean that redshift distribution biases estimated between the SOM and CC methods are fully consistent on simulations, and the data calibration is consistent to better than $2σ$ in all tomographic bins.

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KiDS-Legacy: Consistency of cosmic shear measurements and joint cosmological constraints with external probes

We present a cosmic shear consistency analysis of the final data release from the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-Legacy). By adopting three tiers of consistency metrics, we compare cosmological constraints between subsets of the KiDS-Legacy dataset split by redshift, angular scale, galaxy colour and spatial region. We also review a range of two-point cosmic shear statistics. With the data passing all our consistency metric tests, we demonstrate that KiDS-Legacy is the most internally consistent KiDS catalogue to date. In a joint cosmological analysis of KiDS-Legacy and DES Y3 cosmic shear, combined with data from the Pantheon+ Type Ia supernovae compilation and baryon acoustic oscillations from DESI Y1, we find constraints consistent with Planck measurements of the cosmic microwave background with $S_8\equiv σ_8\sqrt{Ω_{\rm m}/0.3} = 0.814^{+0.011}_{-0.012}$ and $σ_8 = 0.802^{+0.022}_{-0.018}$.

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KiDS-SBI: Simulation-based inference analysis of KiDS-1000 cosmic shear

We present a simulation-based inference (SBI) cosmological analysis of cosmic shear two-point statistics from the fourth weak gravitational lensing data release of the ESO Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-1000). KiDS-SBI efficiently performs non-Limber projection of the matter power spectrum via Levin's method, and constructs log-normal random matter fields on the curved sky for arbitrary cosmologies, including effective prescriptions for intrinsic alignments and baryonic feedback. The forward model samples realistic galaxy positions and shapes based on the observational characteristics, incorporating shear measurement and redshift calibration uncertainties, as well as angular anisotropies due to variations in depth and point-spread function. To enable direct comparison with standard inference, we limit our analysis to pseudo-angular power spectra. The SBI is based on sequential neural likelihood estimation to infer the posterior distribution of spatially-flat $Λ$CDM cosmological parameters from 18,000 realisations. We infer a mean marginal of the growth of structure parameter $S_{8} \equiv σ_8 (Ω_\mathrm{m} / 0.3)^{0.5} = 0.731\pm 0.033$ ($68 \%$). We present a measure of goodness-of-fit for SBI and determine that the forward model fits the data well with a probability-to-exceed of $0.42$. For fixed cosmology, the learnt likelihood is approximately Gaussian, while constraints widen compared to a Gaussian likelihood analysis due to cosmology dependence in the covariance. Neglecting variable depth and anisotropies in the point spread function in the model can cause $S_{8}$ to be overestimated by ${\sim}5\%$. Our results are in agreement with previous analysis of KiDS-1000 and reinforce a $2.9 σ$ tension with constraints from cosmic microwave background measurements. This work highlights the importance of forward-modelling systematic effects in upcoming galaxy surveys.

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KiDS-Legacy: Angular galaxy clustering from deep surveys with complex selection effects

Photometric galaxy surveys, despite their limited resolution along the line of sight, encode rich information about the large-scale structure (LSS) of the Universe thanks to the high number density and extensive depth of the data. However, the complicated selection effects in wide and deep surveys can potentially cause significant bias in the angular two-point correlation function (2PCF) measured from those surveys. In this paper, we measure the 2PCF from the newly published KiDS-Legacy sample. Given an $r$-band $5σ$ magnitude limit of $24.8$ and survey footprint of $1347$ deg$^2$, it achieves an excellent combination of sky coverage and depth for such a measurement. We find that complex selection effects, primarily induced by varying seeing, introduce over-estimation of the 2PCF by approximately an order of magnitude. To correct for such effects, we apply a machine learning-based method to recover an organised random (OR) that presents the same selection pattern as the galaxy sample. The basic idea is to find the selection-induced clustering of galaxies using a combination of self-organising maps (SOMs) and hierarchical clustering (HC). This unsupervised machine learning method is able to recover complicated selection effects without specifying their functional forms. We validate this SOM+HC method on mock deep galaxy samples with realistic systematics and selections derived from the KiDS-Legacy catalogue. Using mock data, we demonstrate that the OR delivers unbiased 2PCF cosmological parameter constraints, removing the $27σ$ offset in the galaxy bias parameter that is recovered when adopting uniform randoms. Blinded measurements on the real KiDS-Legacy data show that the corrected 2PCF is robust to the SOM+HC configuration near the optimal set-up suggested by the mock tests.

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6x2pt: Forecasting gains from joint weak lensing and galaxy clustering analyses with spectroscopic-photometric galaxy cross-correlations

We explore the enhanced self-calibration of photometric galaxy redshift distributions, $n(z)$, through the combination of up to six two-point functions. Our $\rm 3\times2pt$ configuration is comprised of photometric shear, spectroscopic galaxy clustering, and spectroscopic-photometric galaxy-galaxy lensing (GGL). We further include spectroscopic-photometric cross-clustering; photometric GGL; and photometric auto-clustering, using the photometric shear sample as density tracer. We perform simulated likelihood forecasts of the cosmological and nuisance parameter constraints for Stage-III- and Stage-IV-like surveys. For the Stage-III-like case, we employ realistic but perturbed redshift distributions, and distinguish between "coherent" shifting in one direction, versus more internal scattering and full-shape errors. For perfectly known $n(z)$, a $\rm 6\times2pt$ analysis gains $\sim40\%$ in Figure of Merit (FoM) in the $S_8\equivσ_8\sqrt{Ω_{\rm m}/0.3}$ and $Ω_{\rm m}$ plane relative to the $\rm 3\times2pt$ analysis. If untreated, coherent and incoherent redshift errors lead to inaccurate inferences of $S_8$ and $Ω_{\rm m}$, respectively. Employing bin-wise scalar shifts $δ{z}_i$ in the tomographic mean redshifts reduces cosmological parameter biases, with a $\rm 6x2pt$ analysis constraining the shift parameters with $2-4$ times the precision of a photometric $\rm 3^{ph}\times2pt$ analysis. For the Stage-IV-like survey, a $\rm 6\times2pt$ analysis doubles the FoM($σ_8{-}Ω_{\rm m}$) compared to any $\rm 3\times2pt$ or $\rm 3^{ph}\times2pt$ analysis, and is only $8\%$ less constraining than if the $n(z)$ were perfectly known. A Gaussian mixture model for the $n(z)$ reduces mean-redshift errors and preserves the $n(z)$ shape. It also yields the most accurate and precise cosmological constraints for any $N\rm\times2pt$ configuration given $n(z)$ biases.

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pop-cosmos: Scaleable inference of galaxy properties and redshifts with a data-driven population model

We present an efficient Bayesian method for estimating individual photometric redshifts and galaxy properties under a pre-trained population model (pop-cosmos) that was calibrated using purely photometric data. This model specifies a prior distribution over 16 stellar population synthesis (SPS) parameters using a score-based diffusion model, and includes a data model with detailed treatment of nebular emission. We use a GPU-accelerated affine invariant ensemble sampler to achieve fast posterior sampling under this model for 292,300 individual galaxies in the COSMOS2020 catalog, leveraging a neural network emulator (Speculator) to speed up the SPS calculations. We apply both the pop-cosmos population model and a baseline prior inspired by Prospector-$α$, and compare these results to published COSMOS2020 redshift estimates from the widely-used EAZY and LePhare codes. For the $\sim 12,000$ galaxies with spectroscopic redshifts, we find that pop-cosmos yields redshift estimates that have minimal bias ($\sim10^{-4}$), high accuracy ($σ_\text{MAD}=7\times10^{-3}$), and a low outlier rate ($1.6\%$). We show that the pop-cosmos population model generalizes well to galaxies fainter than its $r<25$ mag training set. The sample we have analyzed is $\gtrsim3\times$ larger than has previously been possible via posterior sampling with a full SPS model, with average throughput of 15 GPU-sec per galaxy under the pop-cosmos prior, and 0.6 GPU-sec per galaxy under the Prospector prior. This paves the way for principled modeling of the huge catalogs expected from upcoming Stage IV galaxy surveys.

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GLASS: Generator for Large Scale Structure

We present GLASS, the Generator for Large Scale Structure, a new code for the simulation of galaxy surveys for cosmology, which iteratively builds a light cone with matter, galaxies, and weak gravitational lensing signals as a sequence of nested shells. This allows us to create deep and realistic simulations of galaxy surveys at high angular resolution on standard computer hardware and with low resource consumption. GLASS also introduces a new technique to generate transformations of Gaussian random fields (including lognormal) to essentially arbitrary precision, an iterative line-of-sight integration over matter shells to obtain weak lensing fields, and flexible modelling of the galaxies sector. We demonstrate that GLASS readily produces simulated data sets with per cent-level accurate two-point statistics of galaxy clustering and weak lensing, thus enabling simulation-based validation and inference that is limited only by our current knowledge of the input matter and galaxy properties.

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