arXiv subjects

Ashesh Chattopadhyay

Publications and source records attributed to Ashesh Chattopadhyay.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Improved deep learning of chaotic dynamical systems with multistep penalty losses

Predicting the long-term behavior of chaotic systems remains a formidable challenge due to their extreme sensitivity to initial conditions and the inherent limitations of traditional data-driven modeling approaches. This paper introduces a novel framework that addresses these challenges by leveraging the recently proposed multi-step penalty (MP) optimization technique. Our approach extends the applicability of MP optimization to a wide range of deep learning architectures, including Fourier Neural Operators and UNETs. By introducing penalized local discontinuities in the forecast trajectory, we effectively handle the non-convexity of loss landscapes commonly encountered in training neural networks for chaotic systems. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through its application to two challenging use-cases: the prediction of flow velocity evolution in two-dimensional turbulence and ocean dynamics using reanalysis data. Our results highlight the potential of this approach for accurate and stable long-term prediction of chaotic dynamics, paving the way for new advancements in data-driven modeling of complex natural phenomena.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

OceanNet: A principled neural operator-based digital twin for regional oceans

While data-driven approaches demonstrate great potential in atmospheric modeling and weather forecasting, ocean modeling poses distinct challenges due to complex bathymetry, land, vertical structure, and flow non-linearity. This study introduces OceanNet, a principled neural operator-based digital twin for ocean circulation. OceanNet uses a Fourier neural operator and predictor-evaluate-corrector integration scheme to mitigate autoregressive error growth and enhance stability over extended time scales. A spectral regularizer counteracts spectral bias at smaller scales. OceanNet is applied to the northwest Atlantic Ocean western boundary current (the Gulf Stream), focusing on the task of seasonal prediction for Loop Current eddies and the Gulf Stream meander. Trained using historical sea surface height (SSH) data, OceanNet demonstrates competitive forecast skill by outperforming SSH predictions by an uncoupled, state-of-the-art dynamical ocean model forecast, reducing computation by 500,000 times. These accomplishments demonstrate the potential of physics-inspired deep neural operators as cost-effective alternatives to high-resolution numerical ocean models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Learning Closed-form Equations for Subgrid-scale Closures from High-fidelity Data: Promises and Challenges

There is growing interest in discovering interpretable, closed-form equations for subgrid-scale (SGS) closures/parameterizations of complex processes in Earth systems. Here, we apply a common equation-discovery technique with expansive libraries to learn closures from filtered direct numerical simulations of 2D turbulence and Rayleigh-Bénard convection (RBC). Across common filters (e.g., Gaussian, box), we robustly discover closures of the same form for momentum and heat fluxes. These closures depend on nonlinear combinations of gradients of filtered variables, with constants that are independent of the fluid/flow properties and only depend on filter type/size. We show that these closures are the nonlinear gradient model (NGM), which is derivable analytically using Taylor-series. Indeed, we suggest that with common (physics-free) equation-discovery algorithms, for many common systems/physics, discovered closures are consistent with the leading term of the Taylor-series (except when cutoff filters are used). Like previous studies, we find that large-eddy simulations with NGM closures are unstable, despite significant similarities between the true and NGM-predicted fluxes (correlations $> 0.95$). We identify two shortcomings as reasons for these instabilities: in 2D, NGM produces zero kinetic energy transfer between resolved and subgrid scales, lacking both diffusion and backscattering. In RBC, potential energy backscattering is poorly predicted. Moreover, we show that SGS fluxes diagnosed from data, presumed the ''truth'' for discovery, depend on filtering procedures and are not unique. Accordingly, to learn accurate, stable closures in future work, we propose several ideas around using physics-informed libraries, loss functions, and metrics. These findings are relevant to closure modeling of any multi-scale system.

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arXiv2024

Interpretable structural model error discovery from sparse assimilation increments using spectral bias-reduced neural networks: A quasi-geostrophic turbulence test case

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2023

Data Imbalance, Uncertainty Quantification, and Generalization via Transfer Learning in Data-driven Parameterizations: Lessons from the Emulation of Gravity Wave Momentum Transport in WACCM

Neural networks (NNs) are increasingly used for data-driven subgrid-scale parameterization in weather and climate models. While NNs are powerful tools for learning complex nonlinear relationships from data, there are several challenges in using them for parameterizations. Three of these challenges are 1) data imbalance related to learning rare (often large-amplitude) samples; 2) uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the predictions to provide an accuracy indicator; and 3) generalization to other climates, e.g., those with higher radiative forcing. Here, we examine the performance of methods for addressing these challenges using NN-based emulators of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) physics-based gravity wave (GW) parameterizations as the test case. WACCM has complex, state-of-the-art parameterizations for orography-, convection- and frontal-driven GWs. Convection- and orography-driven GWs have significant data imbalance due to the absence of convection or orography in many grid points. We address data imbalance using resampling and/or weighted loss functions, enabling the successful emulation of parameterizations for all three sources. We demonstrate that three UQ methods (Bayesian NNs, variational auto-encoders, and dropouts) provide ensemble spreads that correspond to accuracy during testing, offering criteria on when a NN gives inaccurate predictions. Finally, we show that the accuracy of these NNs decreases for a warmer climate (4XCO2). However, the generalization accuracy is significantly improved by applying transfer learning, e.g., re-training only one layer using ~1% new data from the warmer climate. The findings of this study offer insights for developing reliable and generalizable data-driven parameterizations for various processes, including (but not limited) to GWs.

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arXiv2022

Deep learning-enhanced ensemble-based data assimilation for high-dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems

Data assimilation (DA) is a key component of many forecasting models in science and engineering. DA allows one to estimate better initial conditions using an imperfect dynamical model of the system and noisy/sparse observations available from the system. Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a DA algorithm that is widely used in applications involving high-dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems. However, EnKF requires evolving large ensembles of forecasts using the dynamical model of the system. This often becomes computationally intractable, especially when the number of states of the system is very large, e.g., for weather prediction. With small ensembles, the estimated background error covariance matrix in the EnKF algorithm suffers from sampling error, leading to an erroneous estimate of the analysis state (initial condition for the next forecast cycle). In this work, we propose hybrid ensemble Kalman filter (H-EnKF), which is applied to a two-layer quasi-geostrophic flow system as a test case. This framework utilizes a pre-trained deep learning-based data-driven surrogate that inexpensively generates and evolves a large data-driven ensemble of the states of the system to accurately compute the background error covariance matrix with less sampling error. The H-EnKF framework estimates a better initial condition without the need for any ad-hoc localization strategies. H-EnKF can be extended to any ensemble-based DA algorithm, e.g., particle filters, which are currently difficult to use for high dimensional systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Explaining the physics of transfer learning a data-driven subgrid-scale closure to a different turbulent flow

Transfer learning (TL) is becoming a powerful tool in scientific applications of neural networks (NNs), such as weather/climate prediction and turbulence modeling. TL enables out-of-distribution generalization (e.g., extrapolation in parameters) and effective blending of disparate training sets (e.g., simulations and observations). In TL, selected layers of a NN, already trained for a base system, are re-trained using a small dataset from a target system. For effective TL, we need to know 1) what are the best layers to re-train? and 2) what physics are learned during TL? Here, we present novel analyses and a new framework to address (1)-(2) for a broad range of multi-scale, nonlinear systems. Our approach combines spectral analyses of the systems' data with spectral analyses of convolutional NN's activations and kernels, explaining the inner-workings of TL in terms of the system's nonlinear physics. Using subgrid-scale modeling of several setups of 2D turbulence as test cases, we show that the learned kernels are combinations of low-, band-, and high-pass filters, and that TL learns new filters whose nature is consistent with the spectral differences of base and target systems. We also find the shallowest layers are the best to re-train in these cases, which is against the common wisdom guiding TL in machine learning literature. Our framework identifies the best layer(s) to re-train beforehand, based on physics and NN theory. Together, these analyses explain the physics learned in TL and provide a framework to guide TL for wide-ranging applications in science and engineering, such as climate change modeling.

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arXiv2022

Discovery of interpretable structural model errors by combining Bayesian sparse regression and data assimilation: A chaotic Kuramoto-Sivashinsky test case

Models of many engineering and natural systems are imperfect. The discrepancy between the mathematical representations of a true physical system and its imperfect model is called the model error. These model errors can lead to substantial differences between the numerical solutions of the model and the state of the system, particularly in those involving nonlinear, multi-scale phenomena. Thus, there is increasing interest in reducing model errors, particularly by leveraging the rapidly growing observational data to understand their physics and sources. Here, we introduce a framework named MEDIDA: Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation. MEDIDA only requires a working numerical solver of the model and a small number of noise-free or noisy sporadic observations of the system. In MEDIDA, first the model error is estimated from differences between the observed states and model-predicted states (the latter are obtained from a number of one-time-step numerical integrations from the previous observed states). If observations are noisy, a data assimilation (DA) technique such as ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is employed to provide the analysis state of the system, which is then used to estimate the model error. Finally, an equation-discovery technique, here the relevance vector machine (RVM), a sparsity-promoting Bayesian method, is used to identify an interpretable, parsimonious, and closed-form representation of the model error. Using the chaotic Kuramoto-Sivashinsky (KS) system as the test case, we demonstrate the excellent performance of MEDIDA in discovering different types of structural/parametric model errors, representing different types of missing physics, using noise-free and noisy observations.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2022

Long-term stability and generalization of observationally-constrained stochastic data-driven models for geophysical turbulence

Recent years have seen a surge in interest in building deep learning-based fully data-driven models for weather prediction. Such deep learning models if trained on observations can mitigate certain biases in current state-of-the-art weather models, some of which stem from inaccurate representation of subgrid-scale processes. However, these data-driven models, being over-parameterized, require a lot of training data which may not be available from reanalysis (observational data) products. Moreover, an accurate, noise-free, initial condition to start forecasting with a data-driven weather model is not available in realistic scenarios. Finally, deterministic data-driven forecasting models suffer from issues with long-term stability and unphysical climate drift, which makes these data-driven models unsuitable for computing climate statistics. Given these challenges, previous studies have tried to pre-train deep learning-based weather forecasting models on a large amount of imperfect long-term climate model simulations and then re-train them on available observational data. In this paper, we propose a convolutional variational autoencoder-based stochastic data-driven model that is pre-trained on an imperfect climate model simulation from a 2-layer quasi-geostrophic flow and re-trained, using transfer learning, on a small number of noisy observations from a perfect simulation. This re-trained model then performs stochastic forecasting with a noisy initial condition sampled from the perfect simulation. We show that our ensemble-based stochastic data-driven model outperforms a baseline deterministic encoder-decoder-based convolutional model in terms of short-term skills while remaining stable for long-term climate simulations yielding accurate climatology.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators

FourCastNet, short for Fourier Forecasting Neural Network, is a global data-driven weather forecasting model that provides accurate short to medium-range global predictions at $0.25^{\circ}$ resolution. FourCastNet accurately forecasts high-resolution, fast-timescale variables such as the surface wind speed, precipitation, and atmospheric water vapor. It has important implications for planning wind energy resources, predicting extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, extra-tropical cyclones, and atmospheric rivers. FourCastNet matches the forecasting accuracy of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), a state-of-the-art Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, at short lead times for large-scale variables, while outperforming IFS for variables with complex fine-scale structure, including precipitation. FourCastNet generates a week-long forecast in less than 2 seconds, orders of magnitude faster than IFS. The speed of FourCastNet enables the creation of rapid and inexpensive large-ensemble forecasts with thousands of ensemble-members for improving probabilistic forecasting. We discuss how data-driven deep learning models such as FourCastNet are a valuable addition to the meteorology toolkit to aid and augment NWP models.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2022

Learning physics-constrained subgrid-scale closures in the small-data regime for stable and accurate LES

We demonstrate how incorporating physics constraints into convolutional neural networks (CNNs) enables learning subgrid-scale (SGS) closures for stable and accurate large-eddy simulations (LES) in the small-data regime (i.e., when the availability of high-quality training data is limited). Using several setups of forced 2D turbulence as the testbeds, we examine the {\it a priori} and {\it a posteriori} performance of three methods for incorporating physics: 1) data augmentation (DA), 2) CNN with group convolutions (GCNN), and 3) loss functions that enforce a global enstrophy-transfer conservation (EnsCon). While the data-driven closures from physics-agnostic CNNs trained in the big-data regime are accurate and stable, and outperform dynamic Smagorinsky (DSMAG) closures, their performance substantially deteriorate when these CNNs are trained with 40x fewer samples (the small-data regime). We show that CNN with DA and GCNN address this issue and each produce accurate and stable data-driven closures in the small-data regime. Despite its simplicity, DA, which adds appropriately rotated samples to the training set, performs as well or in some cases even better than GCNN, which uses a sophisticated equivariance-preserving architecture. EnsCon, which combines structural modeling with aspect of functional modeling, also produces accurate and stable closures in the small-data regime. Overall, GCNN+EnCon, which combines these two physics constraints, shows the best {\it a posteriori} performance in this regime. These results illustrate the power of physics-constrained learning in the small-data regime for accurate and stable LES.

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arXiv2021

Towards physically consistent data-driven weather forecasting: Integrating data assimilation with equivariance-preserving deep spatial transformers

There is growing interest in data-driven weather prediction (DDWP), for example using convolutional neural networks such as U-NETs that are trained on data from models or reanalysis. Here, we propose 3 components to integrate with commonly used DDWP models in order to improve their physical consistency and forecast accuracy. These components are 1) a deep spatial transformer added to the latent space of the U-NETs to preserve a property called equivariance, which is related to correctly capturing rotations and scalings of features in spatio-temporal data, 2) a data-assimilation (DA) algorithm to ingest noisy observations and improve the initial conditions for next forecasts, and 3) a multi-time-step algorithm, which combines forecasts from DDWP models with different time steps through DA, improving the accuracy of forecasts at short intervals. To show the benefit/feasibility of each component, we use geopotential height at 500~hPa (Z500) from ERA5 reanalysis and examine the short-term forecast accuracy of specific setups of the DDWP framework. Results show that the equivariance-preserving networks (U-STNs) clearly outperform the U-NETs, for example improving the forecast skill by $45\%$. Using a sigma-point ensemble Kalman (SPEnKF) algorithm for DA and U-STN as the forward model, we show that stable, accurate DA cycles are achieved even with high observation noise. The DDWP+DA framework substantially benefits from large ($O(1000)$) ensembles that are inexpensively generated with the data-driven forward model in each DA cycle. The multi-time-step DDWP+DA framework also shows promises, e.g., it reduces the average error by factors of 2-3.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2021

Stable a posteriori LES of 2D turbulence using convolutional neural networks: Backscattering analysis and generalization to higher Re via transfer learning

There is a growing interest in developing data-driven subgrid-scale (SGS) models for large-eddy simulation (LES) using machine learning (ML). In a priori (offline) tests, some recent studies have found ML-based data-driven SGS models that are trained on high-fidelity data (e.g., from direct numerical simulation, DNS) to outperform baseline physics-based models and accurately capture the inter-scale transfers, both forward (diffusion) and backscatter. While promising, instabilities in a posteriori (online) tests and inabilities to generalize to a different flow (e.g., with a higher Reynolds number, Re) remain as major obstacles in broadening the applications of such data-driven SGS models. For example, many of the same aforementioned studies have found instabilities that required often ad-hoc remedies to stabilize the LES at the expense of reducing accuracy. Here, using 2D decaying turbulence as the testbed, we show that deep fully convolutional neural networks (CNNs) can accurately predict the SGS forcing terms and the inter-scale transfers in a priori tests, and if trained with enough samples, lead to stable and accurate a posteriori LES-CNN. Further analysis attributes these instabilities to the disproportionally lower accuracy of the CNNs in capturing backscattering when the training set is small. We also show that transfer learning, which involves re-training the CNN with a small amount of data (e.g., 1%) from the new flow, enables accurate and stable a posteriori LES-CNN for flows with 16x higher Re (as well as higher grid resolution if needed). These results show the promise of CNNs with transfer learning to provide stable, accurate, and generalizable LES for practical use.

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arXiv2020

Data-driven subgrid-scale modeling of forced Burgers turbulence using deep learning with generalization to higher Reynolds numbers via transfer learning

Developing data-driven subgrid-scale (SGS) models for large eddy simulations (LES) has received substantial attention recently. Despite some success, particularly in a priori (offline) tests, challenges have been identified that include numerical instabilities in a posteriori (online) tests and generalization (i.e., extrapolation) of trained data-driven SGS models, for example to higher Reynolds numbers. Here, using the stochastically forced Burgers turbulence as the test-bed, we show that deep neural networks trained using properly pre-conditioned (augmented) data yield stable and accurate a posteriori LES models. Furthermore, we show that transfer learning enables accurate/stable generalization to a flow with 10x higher Reynolds number.

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arXiv2020

Data-driven super-parameterization using deep learning: Experimentation with multi-scale Lorenz 96 systems and transfer-learning

To make weather/climate modeling computationally affordable, small-scale processes are usually represented in terms of the large-scale, explicitly-resolved processes using physics-based or semi-empirical parameterization schemes. Another approach, computationally more demanding but often more accurate, is super-parameterization (SP), which involves integrating the equations of small-scale processes on high-resolution grids embedded within the low-resolution grids of large-scale processes. Recently, studies have used machine learning (ML) to develop data-driven parameterization (DD-P) schemes. Here, we propose a new approach, data-driven SP (DD-SP), in which the equations of the small-scale processes are integrated data-drivenly using ML methods such as recurrent neural networks. Employing multi-scale Lorenz 96 systems as testbed, we compare the cost and accuracy (in terms of both short-term prediction and long-term statistics) of parameterized low-resolution (LR), SP, DD-P, and DD-SP models. We show that with the same computational cost, DD-SP substantially outperforms LR, and is better than DD-P, particularly when scale separation is lacking. DD-SP is much cheaper than SP, yet its accuracy is the same in reproducing long-term statistics and often comparable in short-term forecasting. We also investigate generalization, finding that when models trained on data from one system are applied to a system with different forcing (e.g., more chaotic), the models often do not generalize, particularly when the short-term prediction accuracy is examined. But we show that transfer-learning, which involves re-training the data-driven model with a small amount of data from the new system, significantly improves generalization. Potential applications of DD-SP and transfer-learning in climate/weather modeling and the expected challenges are discussed.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2020

Analog forecasting of extreme-causing weather patterns using deep learning

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models require ever-growing computing time/resources, but still, have difficulties with predicting weather extremes. Here we introduce a data-driven framework that is based on analog forecasting (prediction using past similar patterns) and employs a novel deep learning pattern-recognition technique (capsule neural networks, CapsNets) and impact-based auto-labeling strategy. CapsNets are trained on mid-tropospheric large-scale circulation patterns (Z500) labeled $0-4$ depending on the existence and geographical region of surface temperature extremes over North America several days ahead. The trained networks predict the occurrence/region of cold or heat waves, only using Z500, with accuracies (recalls) of $69\%-45\%$ $(77\%-48\%)$ or $62\%-41\%$ $(73\%-47\%)$ $1-5$ days ahead. CapsNets outperform simpler techniques such as convolutional neural networks and logistic regression. Using both temperature and Z500, accuracies (recalls) with CapsNets increase to $\sim 80\%$ $(88\%)$, showing the promises of multi-modal data-driven frameworks for accurate/fast extreme weather predictions, which can augment NWP efforts in providing early warnings.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2019

Data-driven prediction of a multi-scale Lorenz 96 chaotic system using deep learning methods: Reservoir computing, ANN, and RNN-LSTM

In this paper, the performance of three deep learning methods for predicting short-term evolution and for reproducing the long-term statistics of a multi-scale spatio-temporal Lorenz 96 system is examined. The methods are: echo state network (a type of reservoir computing, RC-ESN), deep feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN), and recurrent neural network with long short-term memory (RNN-LSTM). This Lorenz 96 system has three tiers of nonlinearly interacting variables representing slow/large-scale ($X$), intermediate ($Y$), and fast/small-scale ($Z$) processes. For training or testing, only $X$ is available; $Y$ and $Z$ are never known or used. We show that RC-ESN substantially outperforms ANN and RNN-LSTM for short-term prediction, e.g., accurately forecasting the chaotic trajectories for hundreds of numerical solver's time steps, equivalent to several Lyapunov timescales. The RNN-LSTM and ANN show some prediction skills as well; RNN-LSTM bests ANN. Furthermore, even after losing the trajectory, data predicted by RC-ESN and RNN-LSTM have probability density functions (PDFs) that closely match the true PDF, even at the tails. The PDF of the data predicted using ANN, however, deviates from the true PDF. Implications, caveats, and applications to data-driven and data-assisted surrogate modeling of complex nonlinear dynamical systems such as weather/climate are discussed.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Spline-based Interface Modeling and Optimization (SIMO) for Surface Tension and Contact Angle Measurements

Surface tension and contact angle measurements are fundamental characterization techniques relevant to thermal and fluidic applications. Drop shape analysis techniques for the measurement of interfacial tension are powerful, versatile and flexible. Here we develop a Spline-based Interface Modeling and Optimization (SIMO) tool for estimating the surface tension and the contact angle from the profiles of sessile and pendant drops of various sizes. The employed strategy models the profile using a vector parametrized cubic spline which is then evolved to the eventual equilibrium shape using a novel thermodynamic free-energy minimization-based iterative algorithm. We perform experiments to show that in comparison, the typical fitting-based techniques are very sensitive to errors due to image acquisition, digitization and edge detection, and do not predict the correct surface tension and the contact angle values. We mimic these errors in theoretical drop profiles by applying the Gaussian noise and the smoothing filters. We then demonstrate that our optimization algorithm can even drive such inaccurate digitized profiles to the minimum energy equilibrium shape for the precise estimation of the surface tension and the contact angle values. We compare our scheme with software tools available in public domain to characterize the accuracy and the precision of SIMO.

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