arXiv subjects

Ashish Kumar Jha

Publications and source records attributed to Ashish Kumar Jha.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Pseudo-Incrementality Testing: Measuring Advertising Lift from Naturally Occurring Interventions

We develop a method for measuring the incremental effect of advertising when randomized exper- iments are unavailable. Firms generate abrupt interventions in their own marketing as a byproduct of operations: budgets are cut, channels launch, programs pause. We propose a two-stage proce- dure that treats these events as quasi-experiments. The first stage discovers and dates interventions by exact Bayesian run-length inference on marketing activity series. The second stage runs a causal impact analysis against a variance-constrained structural time series counterfactual, with simulation-based inference, five qualification conditions, and a closed-form power bound. We validate the procedure on the two experimental benchmarks that Meta released with its GeoLift framework. The method identifies the day of intervention exactly in both cases. On the experiment where advertising was removed, it recovers the effect within 6.2 percent of the experimental esti- mate (implied return of 1.50 versus 1.60). On the experiment where advertising was added, its 90 percent interval covers the experimental estimate and excludes zero. Of six estimators evaluated on the same released data, ours is the only one that requires no geographic panel and produces intervals that are both correct on both experiments and narrow enough to act on.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Electromagnetic responses induced by one- and two-body nuclear currents in inclusive electron-nucleus scattering

The longitudinal and transverse nuclear response functions encode information about the electromagnetic behavior of the nuclear target probed in inclusive electron-nucleus scattering. We present a microscopic calculation based on an independent-particle model, where a non-relativistic nuclear mean-field potential governs both the initial and final hadronic states of the interaction. We add dynamically generated short-range nucleon-nucleon correlations (SRCs), as well as meson-exchange currents (MECs) derived from one-pion exchange and intermediate $Δ$-resonance excitation. We evaluate the contributions from one- and two-nucleon knock-out reactions to nuclear responses in inclusive electron scattering from $^{12}\mathrm{C}$ in the quasielastic and dip regions. We demonstrate that for quasielastic kinematics, SRCs quench both nuclear responses, while the MECs enhance the transverse signal, substantially improving the predicted transverse-to-longitudinal ratio. In the dip region between the quasielastic and the $Δ$-resonance peaks, we find that the observed excess of transverse strength originates mainly from explicit two-nucleon knock-out following a $Δ$-resonance excitation.

nucl-th↗

arXiv2026

Azimuthal asymmetry in exclusive quasi-elastic neutrino-nucleus interactions

In neutrino oscillation experiments, exclusive measurements of neutrino-nucleus interactions play a critical role, by providing the theoretical and experimental input needed for a reliable estimation of the neutrino energy. In this paper, we derive the general form of the azimuthal angle distribution for quasi-elastic scattering, focusing on a dependency that has been routinely overlooked. We demonstrate that the outgoing nucleon exhibits a preference for emission outside the lepton scattering plane, with an asymmetric azimuthal distribution. In the context of neutrino-nucleus scattering, we argue that this asymmetry is caused by parity violation in the weak interaction. Furthermore, we show that in cross section calculations the asymmetry is sensitive to nuclear modeling choices and to the shell structure of the initial nucleus, thus providing a novel source of information for energy reconstruction in neutrino experiments. We study the experimental feasibility of observing this effect by applying a realistic momentum detection threshold and an intranuclear cascade. We estimate that the asymmetry is observable with $\mathcal{O}$($10^4$) events at the 99% confidence level for neutrino interactions on $^{12}$C, suggesting that the effect is within reach of the current generation of neutrino detectors.

nucl-th↗

arXiv2025

Causal-driven attribution (CDA): Estimating channel influence without user-level data

Attribution modelling lies at the heart of marketing effectiveness, yet most existing approaches depend on user-level path data, which are increasingly inaccessible due to privacy regulations and platform restrictions. This paper introduces a Causal-Driven Attribution (CDA) framework that infers channel influence using only aggregated impression-level data, avoiding any reliance on user identifiers or click-path tracking. CDA integrates temporal causal discovery (using PCMCI) with causal effect estimation via a Structural Causal Model to recover directional channel relationships and quantify their contributions to conversions. Using large-scale synthetic data designed to replicate real marketing dynamics, we show that CDA achieves an average relative RMSE of 9.50% when given the true causal graph, and 24.23% when using the predicted graph, demonstrating strong accuracy under correct structure and meaningful signal recovery even under structural uncertainty. CDA captures cross-channel interdependencies while providing interpretable, privacy-preserving attribution insights, offering a scalable and future-proof alternative to traditional path-based models.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Efficient Monte Carlo Event Generation for Neutrino-Nucleus Exclusive Cross Sections

Modern neutrino-nucleus cross section predictions need to incorporate sophisticated nuclear models to achieve greater predictive precision. However, the computational complexity of these advanced models often limits their practicality for experimental analyses. To address this challenge, we introduce a new Monte Carlo method utilizing Normalizing Flows to generate surrogate cross sections that closely approximate those of the original model while significantly reducing computational overhead. As a case study, we built a Monte Carlo event generator for the neutrino-nucleus cross section model developed by the Ghent group. This model employs a Hartree-Fock procedure to establish a quantum mechanical framework in which both the bound and scattering nucleon states are solutions to the mean-field nuclear potential. The surrogate cross sections generated by our method demonstrate excellent accuracy with a relative effective sample size of more than $98.4 \%$, providing a computationally efficient alternative to traditional Monte Carlo sampling methods for differential cross sections.

hep-ex↗