arXiv subjects

Asifullah Khan

Publications and source records attributed to Asifullah Khan.

39 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Transfer Learning and Meta Classification Based Deep Churn Prediction System for Telecom Industry

A churn prediction system guides telecom service providers to reduce revenue loss. However, the development of a churn prediction system for a telecom industry is a challenging task, mainly due to the large size of the data, high dimensional features, and imbalanced distribution of the data. In this paper, we present a solution to the inherent problems of churn prediction, using the concept of Transfer Learning (TL) and Ensemble-based Meta-Classification. The proposed method TL-DeepE is applied in two stages. The first stage employs TL by fine-tuning multiple pre-trained Deep Convolution Neural Networks (CNNs). Telecom datasets are normally in vector form, which is converted into 2D images because Deep CNNs have high learning capacity on images. In the second stage, predictions from these Deep CNNs are appended to the original feature vector and thus are used to build a final feature vector for the high-level Genetic Programming (GP) and AdaBoost based ensemble classifier. Thus, the experiments are conducted using various CNNs as base classifiers and the GP-AdaBoost as a meta-classifier. By using 10-fold cross-validation, the performance of the proposed TL-DeepE system is compared with existing techniques, for two standard telecommunication datasets; Orange and Cell2cell. Performing experiments on Orange and Cell2cell datasets, the prediction accuracy obtained was 75.4% and 68.2%, while the area under the curve was 0.83 and 0.74, respectively.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Adaptive Transfer Learning in Deep Neural Networks: Wind Power Prediction using Knowledge Transfer from Region to Region and Between Different Task Domains

Transfer Learning (TL) in Deep Neural Networks is gaining importance because in most of the applications, the labeling of data is costly and time-consuming. Additionally, TL also provides an effective weight initialization strategy for Deep Neural Networks . This paper introduces the idea of Adaptive Transfer Learning in Deep Neural Networks (ATL-DNN) for wind power prediction. Specifically, we show in case of wind power prediction that adaptive TL of Deep Neural Networks system can be adaptively modified as regards training on a different wind farm is concerned. The proposed ATL-DNN technique is tested for short-term wind power prediction, where continuously arriving information has to be exploited. Adaptive TL not only helps in providing good weight initialization, but is also helpful to utilize the incoming data for effective learning. Additionally, the proposed ATL-DNN technique is shown to transfer knowledge between different task domains (wind power to wind speed prediction) and from one region to another region. The simulation results show that the proposed ATL-DNN technique achieves average values of 0.0637,0.0986, and 0.0984 for the Mean-Absolute-Error, Root-Mean-Squared-Error, and Standard-Deviation-Error, respectively.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Deep Belief Networks Based Feature Generation and Regression for Predicting Wind Power

Wind energy forecasting helps to manage power production, and hence, reduces energy cost. Deep Neural Networks (DNN) mimics hierarchical learning in the human brain and thus possesses hierarchical, distributed, and multi-task learning capabilities. Based on aforementioned characteristics, we report Deep Belief Network (DBN) based forecast engine for wind power prediction because of its good generalization and unsupervised pre-training attributes. The proposed DBN-WP forecast engine, which exhibits stochastic feature generation capabilities and is composed of multiple Restricted Boltzmann Machines, generates suitable features for wind power prediction using atmospheric properties as input. DBN-WP, due to its unsupervised pre-training of RBM layers and generalization capabilities, is able to learn the fluctuations in the meteorological properties and thus is able to perform effective mapping of the wind power. In the deep network, a regression layer is appended at the end to predict sort-term wind power. It is experimentally shown that the deep learning and unsupervised pre-training capabilities of DBN based model has comparable and in some cases better results than hybrid and complex learning techniques proposed for wind power prediction. The proposed prediction system based on DBN, achieves mean values of RMSE, MAE and SDE as 0.124, 0.083 and 0.122, respectively. Statistical analysis of several independent executions of the proposed DBN-WP wind power prediction system demonstrates the stability of the system. The proposed DBN-WP architecture is easy to implement and offers generalization as regards the change in location of the wind farm is concerned.

cs.LG↗