arXiv subjects

Asma Khedher

Publications and source records attributed to Asma Khedher.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A dynamic optimal reinsurance strategy with capital injections in the Cramer-Lundberg model

In this article we consider the surplus process of an insurance company within the Cramer-Lundberg framework. We study the optimal reinsurance strategy and dividend distribution of an insurance company under proportional reinsurance, in which capital injections are allowed. Our aim is to find a general dynamic reinsurance strategy that maximises the expected discounted cumulative dividends until the time of passage below a given level, called ruin. These policies consist in stopping at the first time when the size of the overshoot below 0 exceeds a certain limit a, and only pay dividends when the reserve reaches an upper barrier b. Using analytical methods, we identify the value function as a particular solution to the associated Hamilton Jacobi Bellman equation. This approach leads to an exhaustive and explicit characterisation of optimal policy. The proportional reinsurance is given via comprehensive structure equations. Furthermore we give some examples illustrating the applicability of this method for proportional reinsurance treaties.

math.OC↗

arXiv2026

Pricing Options on Forwards in Function-Valued Affine Stochastic Volatility Models

We study the pricing of European-style options written on forward contracts within function-valued infinite-dimensional affine stochastic volatility models. The dynamics of the underlying forward price curves are modeled within the Heath-Jarrow-Morton-Musiela framework as solution to a stochastic partial differential equation modulated by a stochastic volatility process. We analyze two classes of affine stochastic volatility models: (i) a Gaussian model governed by a finite-rank Wishart process, and (ii) a pure-jump affine model extending the Barndorff--Nielsen--Shephard framework with state-dependent jumps in the covariance component. For both models, we derive conditions for the existence of exponential moments and develop semi-closed Fourier-based pricing formulas for vanilla call and put options written on forward price curves. Our approach allows for tractable pricing in models with infinitely many risk factors, thereby capturing maturity-specific and term structure risk essential in forward markets.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2026

Universal approximation by signatures for infinite-dimensional rough paths

We establish universal approximation theorems for infinite-dimensional geometric rough paths, i.e., we show that continuous functions on the space of infinite-dimensional weakly geometric Hölder continuous rough paths can be approximated by functions that are linear in the signature of the path. The underlying topology determining continuity and compactness can be either the norm topology or the weak$^*$ topology. Whereas considerably more effort is required to obtain the universal approximation theorem with respect to the weak$^*$ topology, this setting ensures uniform approximation on norm-bounded sets. The motivation for establishing universal approximation theorems lies in the desire to approximate quantities derived from the solution of a stochastic partial differential equation. More specifically, our universal approximation theorems form the foundations of a novel approach to e.g. pricing of forward rates within the Heath--Jarrow--Morton--Musiela framework.

math.PR↗

arXiv2025

Measure-Valued CARMA Processes

In this paper, we examine continuous-time autoregressive moving-average (CARMA) processes on Banach spaces driven by Lévy subordinators. We show their existence and cone-invariance, investigate their first and second order moment structure, and derive explicit conditions for their stationarity. Specifically, we define a measure-valued CARMA process as the analytically weak solution of a linear state-space model in the Banach space of finite signed measures. By selecting suitable input, transition, and output operators in the linear state-space model, we show that the resulting solution possesses CARMA dynamics and remains in the cone of positive measures defined on some spatial domain. We also illustrate how positive measure-valued CARMA processes can be used to model the dynamics of functionals of spatio-temporal random fields and connect our framework to existing CARMA-type models from the literature, highlighting its flexibility and broader applicability.

math.PR↗

arXiv2024

Utility maximisation and time-change

We consider the problem of maximising expected utility from terminal wealth in a semimartingale setting, where the semimartingale is written as a sum of a time-changed Brownian motion and a finite variation process. To solve this problem, we consider an initial enlargement of filtration and we derive change of variable formulas for stochastic integrals w.r.t. a time-changed Brownian motion. The change of variable formulas allow us to shift the problem to a maximisation problem under the enlarged filtration for models driven by a Brownian motion and a finite variation process. The latter could be solved by using martingale methods. Then applying again the change of variable formula, we derive the optimal strategy for the original problem for a power utility under certain assumptions on the finite variation process of the semimartingale.

math.PR↗

arXiv2024

Utility maximisation and change of variable formulas for time-changed dynamics

In this paper we derive novel change of variable formulas for stochastic integrals w.r.t. a time-changed Brownian motion where we assume that the time-change is a general increasing stochastic process with finitely many jumps in a bounded set of the positive half-line and is independent of the Brownian motion. As an application we consider the problem of maximising the expected utility of the terminal wealth in a semimartingale setting, where the semimartingale is written in terms of a time-changed Brownian motion and a finite variation process. To solve this problem, we use an initial enlargement of filtration and our change of variable formulas to shift the problem to a maximisation problem under the enlarged filtration for models driven by a Brownian motion and a finite variation process. The latter problem can be solved by using martingale properties. Then applying again a change of variable formula, we derive the optimal strategy for the original problem for a power utility and for a logarithmic utility.

math.PR↗

arXiv2024

Calibration of the rating transition model for high and low default portfolios

In this paper we develop Maximum likelihood (ML) based algorithms to calibrate the model parameters in credit rating transition models. Since the credit rating transition models are not Gaussian linear models, the celebrated Kalman filter is not suitable to compute the likelihood of observed migrations. Therefore, we develop a Laplace approximation of the likelihood function and as a result the Kalman filter can be used in the end to compute the likelihood function. This approach is applied to so-called high-default portfolios, in which the number of migrations (defaults) is large enough to obtain high accuracy of the Laplace approximation. By contrast, low-default portfolios have a limited number of observed migrations (defaults). Therefore, in order to calibrate low-default portfolios, we develop a ML algorithm using a particle filter (PF) and Gaussian process regression. Experiments show that both algorithms are efficient and produce accurate approximations of the likelihood function and the ML estimates of the model parameters.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2023

A dimension reduction approach for loss valuation in credit risk modelling

This paper addresses the ``curse of dimensionality'' in the loss valuation of credit risk models. A dimension reduction methodology based on the Bayesian filter and smoother is proposed. This methodology is designed to achieve a fast and accurate loss valuation algorithm in credit risk modelling, but it can also be extended to valuation models of other risk types. The proposed methodology is generic, robust and can easily be implemented. Moreover, the accuracy of the proposed methodology in the estimation of expected loss and value-at-risk is illustrated by numerical experiments. The results suggest that, compared to the currently most used PCA approach, the proposed methodology provides more accurate estimation of expected loss and value-at-risk of a loss distribution.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2023

Infinite-dimensional Wishart-processes

We introduce and analyse infinite dimensional Wishart processes taking values in the cone $S^+_1(H)$ of positive self-adjoint trace class operators on a separable real Hilbert space $H$. Our main result gives necessary and sufficient conditions for their existence, showing that these processes are necessarily of fixed finite rank almost surely, but they are not confined to a finite-dimensional subspace of $S^+_1(H)$. By providing explicit solutions to operator valued Riccati equations, we prove that their Fourier-Laplace transform is exponentially affine in the initial value. As a corollary, we obtain uniqueness in law as well as the Markov property. We actually show the explicit form of the Fourier-Laplace transform for a wide parameter regime, thereby also extending what is known in the finite-dimensional setting. Finally, under minor conditions on the parameters we prove the Feller property with respect to a slight refinement of the weak-$*$-topology on $S_1^+(H)$. Applications of our results range from tractable infinite-dimensional covariance modelling to the analysis of the limit spectrum of large random matrices.

math.PR↗

arXiv2022

Affine pure-jump processes on positive Hilbert-Schmidt operators

We show the existence of a broad class of affine Markov processes in the cone of positive self-adjoint Hilbert-Schmidt operators. Such processes are well-suited as infinite dimensional stochastic volatility models. The class of processes we consider is an infinite dimensional analogue of the affine processes in the space of positive semi-definite and symmetric matrices studied in Cuchiero et al. [Ann. Appl. Probab. 21 (2011) 397-463]. As in the finite dimensional case, the processes we construct allow for a drift depending affine linearly on the state, as well jumps governed by a jump measure that depends affine linearly on the state. However, because the infinite-dimensional cone of positive self-adjoint Hilbert-Schmidt operators has empty interior, we do not consider a diffusion term. This empty interior also demands a new approach to proving existence: instead of using standard localisation techniques, we employ the theory on generalized Feller semigroups introduced in Dörsek and Teichmann [arXiv 2010] and further developed in Cuchiero and Teichmann [Journal of Evolution Equations (2020)]. Our approach requires a second moment condition on the jump measures involved, consequently, we obtain explicit formulas for the first and second moments of the affine process.

math.PR↗

arXiv2021

Liquidity-free implied volatilities: an approach using conic finance

We consider the problem of calculating risk-neutral implied volatilities of European options without relying on option mid prices but solely on bid and ask prices. We provide an approach, based on the conic finance paradigm, that allows to uniquely strip risk-neutral implied volatilities from bid and ask quotes, and that does not require restrictive assumptions. Our methodology also allows to jointly calculate the implied liquidity of the market. The idea outlined in this paper can be applied to calculate other implied parameters from bid and ask security prices as soon as their theoretical risk-neutral counterparts are strictly increasing with respect to the former.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2021

From bid-ask credit default swap quotes to risk-neutral default probabilities using distorted expectations

Risk-neutral default probabilities can be implied from credit default swap (CDS) market quotes. In practice, mid CDS quotes are used as inputs, as their risk-neutral counterparts are not observable. We show how to imply risk-neutral default probabilities from bid and ask quotes directly by means of formulating the CDS calibration problem to bid and ask market quotes within the conic finance framework. Assuming the risk-neutral distribution of the default time to be driven by a Poisson process we prove, under mild liquidity-related assumptions, that the calibration problem admits a unique solution that also allows to jointly calculate the implied liquidity of the market.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2021

An infinite-dimensional affine stochastic volatility model

We introduce a flexible and tractable infinite-dimensional stochastic volatility model. More specifically, we consider a Hilbert space valued Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-type process, whose instantaneous covariance is given by a pure-jump stochastic process taking values in the cone of positive self-adjoint Hilbert-Schmidt operators. The tractability of our model lies in the fact that the two processes involved are jointly affine, i.e., we show that their characteristic function can be given explicitly in terms of the solutions to a set of generalised Riccati equations. The flexibility lies in the fact that we allow multiple modeling options for the instantaneous covariance process, including state-dependent jump intensity. Infinite dimensional volatility models arise e.g. when considering the dynamics of forward rate functions in the Heath-Jarrow-Morton-Musiela modeling framework using the Filipovic space. In this setting we discuss various examples: an infinite-dimensional version of the Barndorff-Nielsen-Shephard stochastic volatility model, as well as a model involving self-exciting volatility.

math.PR↗

arXiv2019

A Kalman particle filter for online parameter estimation with applications to affine models

In this paper we address the problem of estimating the posterior distribution of the static parameters of a continuous time state space model with discrete time observations by an algorithm that combines the Kalman filter and a particle filter. The proposed algorithm is semi-recursive and has a two layer structure, in which the outer layer provides the estimation of the posterior distribution of the unknown parameters and the inner layer provides the estimation of the posterior distribution of the state variables. This algorithm has a similar structure as the so-called recursive nested particle filter, but unlike the latter filter, in which both layers use a particle filter, this proposed algorithm introduces a dynamic kernel to sample the parameter particles in the outer layer to obtain a higher convergence speed. Moreover, this algorithm also implements the Kalman filter in the inner layer to reduce the computational time. This algorithm can also be used to estimate the parameters that suddenly change value. We prove that, for a state space model with a certain structure, the estimated posterior distribution of the unknown parameters and the state variables converge to the actual distribution in $L_p$ with rate of order $\mathcal{O}(N^{-\frac{1}{2}}+δ^{\frac{1}{2}})$, where $N$ is the number of particles for the parameters in the outer layer and $δ$ is the maximum time step between two consecutive observations. We present numerical results of the implementation of this algorithm, in particularly we implement this algorithm for affine interest models, possibly with stochastic volatility, although the algorithm can be applied to a much broader class of models.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2017

Pricing of commodity derivatives on processes with memory

Spot option prices, forwards and options on forwards relevant for the commodity markets are computed when the underlying process S is modelled as an exponential of a process ξ with memory as e.g. a Lévy semi-stationary process. Moreover a risk premium \r{ho} representing storage costs, illiquidity, convenience yield or insurance costs is explicitly modelled as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type of dynamics with a mean level that depends on the same memory term as the commodity. Also the interest rate is assumed to be stochastic. To show the existence of an equivalent pricing measure Q for S we relate the stochastic differential equation for ξ to the generalised Langevin equation. When the interest rate is deterministic the process (ξ; \r{ho}) has an affine structure under the pricing measure Q and an explicit expression for the option price is derived in terms of the Fourier transform of the payoff function.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2013

Robustness of quadratic hedging strategies in finance via backward stochastic differential equations with jumps

We consider a backward stochastic differential equation with jumps (BSDEJ) which is driven by a Brownian motion and a Poisson random measure. We present two candidate-approximations to this BSDEJ and we prove that the solution of each candidate- approximation converges to the solution of the original BSDEJ in a space which we specify. We use this result to investigate in further detail the consequences of the choice of the model to (partial) hedging in incomplete markets in finance. As an application, we consider models in which the small variations in the price dynamics are modeled with a Poisson random measure with infinite activity and models in which these small variations are modeled with a Brownian motion. Using the convergence results on BSDEJs, we show that quadratic hedging strategies are robust towards the choice of the model and we derive an estimation of the model risk.

math.PR↗