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Athanasios Papaioannou

Publications and source records attributed to Athanasios Papaioannou.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Review of Machine Learning Models for Solar Energetic Particle Prediction

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events have attracted increasing attention due to their significant radiation hazards for aviation, spacecraft electronics, and human missions beyond Earth's magnetosphere. From a scientific perspective, SEP events are intriguing because they arise from a set of physical processes extending from the solar surface and corona through the heliosphere, offering insight into particle acceleration and transport mechanisms that are widely applicable across astrophysics. Therefore, advancing our ability to understand and predict SEP events is essential both for deepening our knowledge of such mechanisms and for safeguarding space technologies and exploration. Traditionally, researchers have modeled SEPs using physics-based simulations and empirical methods. More recently, machine learning (ML) has emerged as a new tool for understanding and predicting SEP events. The purpose of this manuscript is to review the currently available ML models for SEP prediction, identify the datasets used for training, compare their architectures, inputs, and outputs, and, based on these insights, outline good practices and recommendations for future research.

astro-ph.SR

ICo3D: An Interactive Conversational 3D Virtual Human

This work presents Interactive Conversational 3D Virtual Human (ICo3D), a method for generating an interactive, conversational, and photorealistic 3D human avatar. Based on multi-view captures of a subject, we create an animatable 3D face model and a dynamic 3D body model, both rendered by splatting Gaussian primitives. Once merged together, they represent a lifelike virtual human avatar suitable for real-time user interactions. We equip our avatar with an LLM for conversational ability. During conversation, the audio speech of the avatar is used as a driving signal to animate the face model, enabling precise synchronization. We describe improvements to our dynamic Gaussian models that enhance photorealism: SWinGS++ for body reconstruction and HeadGaS++ for face reconstruction, and provide as well a solution to merge the separate face and body models without artifacts. We also present a demo of the complete system, showcasing several use cases of real-time conversation with the 3D avatar. Our approach offers a fully integrated virtual avatar experience, supporting both oral and written form interactions in immersive environments. ICo3D is applicable to a wide range of fields, including gaming, virtual assistance, and personalized education, among others. Project page: https://ico3d.github.io/

cs.CV

ImHead: A Large-scale Implicit Morphable Model for Localized Head Modeling

Over the last years, 3D morphable models (3DMMs) have emerged as a state-of-the-art methodology for modeling and generating expressive 3D avatars. However, given their reliance on a strict topology, along with their linear nature, they struggle to represent complex full-head shapes. Following the advent of deep implicit functions, we propose imHead, a novel implicit 3DMM that not only models expressive 3D head avatars but also facilitates localized editing of the facial features. Previous methods directly divided the latent space into local components accompanied by an identity encoding to capture the global shape variations, leading to expensive latent sizes. In contrast, we retain a single compact identity space and introduce an intermediate region-specific latent representation to enable local edits. To train imHead, we curate a large-scale dataset of 4K distinct identities, making a step-towards large scale 3D head modeling. Under a series of experiments we demonstrate the expressive power of the proposed model to represent diverse identities and expressions outperforming previous approaches. Additionally, the proposed approach provides an interpretable solution for 3D face manipulation, allowing the user to make localized edits.

cs.CV

Comparing the Sun to Sun-like stars. On the importance of addressing faculae/spot domination

Whether the Sun is an ordinary G-type star is still an open scientific question. Stellar surveys by Kepler and TESS, however, revealed that Sun-like stars tend to show much stronger flare activity than the Sun. This study aims to reassess observed flare and spot activity of Sun-like Kepler stars by fine-tuning the criteria for a more robust definition of Sun-like conditions and better comparability between the current Sun and Sun-like stars. We update one of the recent stellar Sun-like star samples by applying new empirical stellar relations between the starspot size and the effective stellar temperature to derive more reliable starspot group sizes. From the 265 solar-type stars, we could select 48 stars supporting the Kepler 30-minute cadence light curves. These were analyzed by implementing the gradient of the power spectra method to distinguish between spot- and faculae-dominated stars. We employed the $\alpha$-factor to quantify the area ratio of bright and dark features on the stellar surface. We were able to group the 48 stars as being spot- or faculae-dominated, revealing a preferential distribution of the Kepler Sun-like stars towards the spot-dominated (44 stars) and transitional (four stars) regimes. As the current Sun is faculae-dominated, only the transitional stars were utilized for further evaluation. Additionally, accounting for comparability in stellar mass, radius, and rotation period, we show that only one of the utilized 265 Sun-like stars in the Kepler sample (i.e., KIC 11599385) allows for direct comparison to the current Sun. We further show that the single flare observed on KIC 11599385 falls right within the flare energy range estimated for the AD774/775 event observed in the cosmogenic radionuclide archives of $^{10}$Be, $^{14}$C, and $^{36}$Cl.

astro-ph.SR

Better Together: Unified Motion Capture and 3D Avatar Reconstruction

We present Better Together, a method that simultaneously solves the human pose estimation problem while reconstructing a photorealistic 3D human avatar from multi-view videos. While prior art usually solves these problems separately, we argue that joint optimization of skeletal motion with a 3D renderable body model brings synergistic effects, i.e. yields more precise motion capture and improved visual quality of real-time rendering of avatars. To achieve this, we introduce a novel animatable avatar with 3D Gaussians rigged on a personalized mesh and propose to optimize the motion sequence with time-dependent MLPs that provide accurate and temporally consistent pose estimates. We first evaluate our method on highly challenging yoga poses and demonstrate state-of-the-art accuracy on multi-view human pose estimation, reducing error by 35% on body joints and 45% on hand joints compared to keypoint-based methods. At the same time, our method significantly boosts the visual quality of animatable avatars (+2dB PSNR on novel view synthesis) on diverse challenging subjects.

cs.CV

Estimating solar radiation environment extremes

Extreme Solar Energetic Particle Events (ESPEs) were identified almost a decade ago, providing context for super events unleashed by our host star, the Sun. Their assumed solar origin drives the question of their ``worst-case" impact, which could be profound, multifaceted, and devastating for our technological society. A methodology that directly relates the soft X-ray flux $F_{SXR}$ of the driving solar flare of a Solar Energetic Particle event to its ``worst-case" integral fluence spectrum has recently been proposed by Papaioannou et al. (2023). We employ this method to the ESPEs that have been confirmed in cosmogenic radionuclide records up to date, retrieve their ``worst-case" integral spectrum, and compare the latter to the actual -- independently obtained -- recent reconstructions based on the radionuclide records. We first show that our method allows us to estimate the integral fluence spectra of one of the paleo events, i.e., AD774/775, one of the strongest ESPEs found within the cosmogenic radionuclide records so far. We then implement a mean ESPE utilizing four confirmed paleo ESPEs (i.e., AD993/994, AD774/775, 660 BCE, and 7176 BCE) and test the resulting spectrum against the estimated one. Finally, we test the same methodology for a series of strong SEPs recorded on the Earth's surface as Ground Level Enhancements (GLEs). In all investigated cases, the recent re-calibration of $F_{SXR}$ by Hudson et al. (2024) is considered. We conclude that the methodology can adequately estimate the ``worst-case" integral fluence spectra for both strong and extreme SEP events, quantifying their impact up to an integral energy of $\sim$ E $>$ 1 GeV.

physics.space-ph

Revisiting Empirical Solar Energetic Particle Scaling Relations II. Coronal Mass Ejections

Aims. The space radiation environment conditions and the maximum expected coronal mass ejection (CME) speed are being assessed through the investigation of scaling laws between the peak proton flux and fluence of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events with the speed of the CMEs. Methods. We utilize a complete catalog of SEP events, covering the last ~25 years of CME observations (i.e. 1997 to 2017). We calculate the peak proton fluxes and integrated event fluences for those events reaching an integral energy of up to E> 100 MeV, covering the period of the last ~25 years of CME observations. For a sample of 38 strong SEP events, we first investigate the statistical relations between the recorded peak proton fluxes (IP) and fluences (FP) at a set of integral energies of E >10 MeV, E>30 MeV, E>60 MeV, and E>100 MeV versus the projected CME speed near the Sun (VCME) obtained by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (SOHO/LASCO). Based on the inferred relations, we further calculate the integrated energy dependence of both IP and FP, assuming that they follow an inverse power-law with respect to energy. By making use of simple physical assumptions, we combine our derived scaling laws to estimate the upper limits for VCME, IP, and FP focusing on two cases of known extreme SEP events that occurred on February 23, 1956 (GLE05) and in AD774/775, respectively. Given physical constraints and assumptions, several options for the upper limit VCME, associated with these events, are investigated. Results. A scaling law relating IP and FP to the CME speed as V^{5}CME for CMEs ranging between ~3400-5400 km/s is consistent with values of FP inferred for the cosmogenic nuclide event of AD774/775. At the same time, the upper CME speed that the current Sun can provide possibly falls within an upper limit of VCME <= 5500 km/s.

astro-ph.SR

ILSH: The Imperial Light-Stage Head Dataset for Human Head View Synthesis

This paper introduces the Imperial Light-Stage Head (ILSH) dataset, a novel light-stage-captured human head dataset designed to support view synthesis academic challenges for human heads. The ILSH dataset is intended to facilitate diverse approaches, such as scene-specific or generic neural rendering, multiple-view geometry, 3D vision, and computer graphics, to further advance the development of photo-realistic human avatars. This paper details the setup of a light-stage specifically designed to capture high-resolution (4K) human head images and describes the process of addressing challenges (preprocessing, ethical issues) in collecting high-quality data. In addition to the data collection, we address the split of the dataset into train, validation, and test sets. Our goal is to design and support a fair view synthesis challenge task for this novel dataset, such that a similar level of performance can be maintained and expected when using the test set, as when using the validation set. The ILSH dataset consists of 52 subjects captured using 24 cameras with all 82 lighting sources turned on, resulting in a total of 1,248 close-up head images, border masks, and camera pose pairs.

cs.CV

Latent Disentanglement in Mesh Variational Autoencoders Improves the Diagnosis of Craniofacial Syndromes and Aids Surgical Planning

The use of deep learning to undertake shape analysis of the complexities of the human head holds great promise. However, there have traditionally been a number of barriers to accurate modelling, especially when operating on both a global and local level. In this work, we will discuss the application of the Swap Disentangled Variational Autoencoder (SD-VAE) with relevance to Crouzon, Apert and Muenke syndromes. Although syndrome classification is performed on the entire mesh, it is also possible, for the first time, to analyse the influence of each region of the head on the syndromic phenotype. By manipulating specific parameters of the generative model, and producing procedure-specific new shapes, it is also possible to simulate the outcome of a range of craniofacial surgical procedures. This opens new avenues to advance diagnosis, aids surgical planning and allows for the objective evaluation of surgical outcomes.

eess.IV

Revisiting Empirical Solar Energetic Particle Scaling Relations I. Solar flares

Aims The possible influence of solar superflares on the near-Earth space radiation environment are assessed through the investigation of scaling laws between the peak proton flux and fluence of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events with the solar flare soft X-ray peak photon flux. Methods We compiled a catalog of 65 well-connected (W20-90) SEP events during the last three solar cycles covering a period of $\sim$34 years (1984-2020) that were associated with flares of class $\geq$C6.0 and investigated the statistical relations between the recorded peak proton fluxes ($I_{P}$) and the fluences ($F_{P}$) at a set of integral energies from E $>$10; $>$30; $>$60; to $>$100 MeV versus the associated solar flare peak soft X-ray flux in the 1$-$8 A band ($F_{SXR}$). Based on the inferred relations, we calculate the integrated energy dependence of the peak proton flux ($I_{P}$) and fluence ($F_{P}$) of the SEP events, assuming that they follow an inverse power-law with respect to energy. Finally, we make use of simple physical assumptions, combining our derived scaling laws, and estimate the upper limits for $I_{P}$ and $F_{P}$ focusing on the flare associated with the strongest GLE yet directly observed (GLE 05 on 23 February 1956), and that inferred for the cosmogenic radionuclide based SEP event of AD774/775. Results A scaling law relating $I_{P}$ and $F_{P}$ to the solar soft X-ray peak intensity ($F_{SXR}$) as $\propto$~$F_{SXR}^{5/6}$ for a flare with a $F_{SXR}$ = X600 (in the revised scale) is consistent with values of $F_{P}$ inferred for the cosmogenic nuclide event of AD774/775.

astro-ph.SR

The Probabilistic Solar Particle Event foRecasting (PROSPER) Model

The Probabilistic Solar Particle Event foRecasting (PROSPER) model predicts the probability of occurrence and the expected peak flux of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events. Predictions are derived for a set of integral proton energies (i.e. E$>$10, $>$30 and $>$100 MeV) from characteristics of solar flares (longitude, magnitude), coronal mass ejections (width, speed) and combinations of both. Herein the PROSPER model methodology for deriving the SEP event forecasts is described and the validation of the model, based on archived data, is presented for a set of case studies. The PROSPER model has been incorporated into the new operational Advanced Solar Particle Event Casting System (ASPECS) tool to provide nowcasting (short term forecasting) of SEP events as part of ESA's future SEP Advanced Warning System (SAWS). ASPECS also provides the capability to interrogate PROSPER for historical cases via a run on demand functionality.

astro-ph.SR

Radial Evolution of the April 2020 Stealth Coronal Mass Ejection between 0.8 and 1 AU -- A Comparison of Forbush Decreases at Solar Orbiter and Earth

Aims. We present observations of the first coronal mass ejection (CME) observed at the Solar Orbiter spacecraft on April 19, 2020, and the associated Forbush decrease (FD) measured by its High Energy Telescope (HET). This CME is a multispacecraft event also seen near Earth the next day. Methods. We highlight the capabilities of HET for observing small short-term variations of the galactic cosmic ray count rate using its single detector counters. The analytical ForbMod model is applied to the FD measurements to reproduce the Forbush decrease at both locations. Input parameters for the model are derived from both in situ and remote-sensing observations of the CME. Results. The very slow (~350 km/s) stealth CME caused a FD with an amplitude of 3 % in the low-energy cosmic ray measurements at HET and 2 % in a comparable channel of the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, as well as a 1 % decrease in neutron monitor measurements. Significant differences are observed in the expansion behavior of the CME at different locations, which may be related to influence of the following high speed solar wind stream. Under certain assumptions, ForbMod is able to reproduce the observed FDs in low-energy cosmic ray measurements from HET as well as CRaTER, but with the same input parameters, the results do not agree with the FD amplitudes at higher energies measured by neutron monitors on Earth. We study these discrepancies and provide possible explanations. Conclusions. This study highlights that the novel measurements of the Solar Orbiter can be coordinated with other spacecraft to improve our understanding of space weather in the inner heliosphere. Multi-spacecraft observations combined with data-based modeling are also essential to understand the propagation and evolution of CMEs as well as their space weather impacts.

astro-ph.SR

Propagating Conditions and the Time of ICMEs Arrival: A Comparison of the Effective Acceleration Model with ENLIL and DBEM Models

The Effective Acceleration Model (EAM) predicts the Time-of-Arrival (ToA) of the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) driven shock and the average speed within the sheath at 1 AU. The model is based on the assumption that the ambient solar wind interacts with the interplanetary CME (ICME) resulting in constant acceleration or deceleration. The upgraded version of the model (EAMv3), presented here, incorporates two basic improvements: (a) a new technique for the calculation of the acceleration (or deceleration) of the ICME from the Sun to 1 AU and (b) a correction for the CME plane-of-sky speed. A validation of the upgraded EAM model is performed via comparisons to predictions from the ensemble version of the Drag-Based model (DBEM) and the WSA-ENLIL+Cone ensemble model. A common sample of 16 CMEs/ICMEs, in 2013-2014, is used for the comparison. Basic performance metrics such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean error (ME) and root mean squared error (RMSE) between observed and predicted values of ToA are presented. MAE for EAM model was 8.7$\pm$1.6 hours while for DBEM and ENLIL was 14.3$\pm$2.2 and 12.8$\pm$1.7 hours, respectively. ME for EAM was -1.4$\pm$2.7 hours in contrast with -9.7$\pm$3.4 and -6.1$\pm$3.3 hours from DBEM and ENLIL. We also study the hypothesis of stronger deceleration in the interplanetary (IP) space utilizing the EAMv3 and DBEM models. In particularly, the DBEM model perform better when a greater value of drag parameter, of order of a factor of 3, is used in contrast to previous studies. EAMv3 model shows a deceleration of ICMEs at greater distances, with a mean value of 0.72 AU.

physics.space-ph

Assessing the projection correction of Coronal Mass Ejection speeds on Time-of-Arrival prediction performance using the Effective Acceleration Model

White light images of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are projections on the plane-of-sky (POS). As a result, CME kinematics are subject to projection effects. The error in the true (deprojected) speed of CMEs is one of the main causes of uncertainty to Space Weather forecasts, since all estimates of the CME Time-of-Arrival (ToA) at a certain location within the heliosphere require, as input, the CME speed. We use single viewpoint observations for 1037 flare-CME events between 1996-2017 and propose a new approach for the correction of the CME speed assuming radial propagation from the flare site. Our method is uniquely capable to produce physically reasonable deprojected speeds across the full range of source longitudes. We bound the uncertainty in the deprojected speed estimates via limits in the true angular width of a CME based on multiview-point observations. Our corrections range up to 1.37-2.86 for CMEs originating from the center of the disk. On average, the deprojected speeds are 12.8% greater than their POS speeds. For slow CMEs (VPOS < 400 km/s) the full ice-cream cone model performs better while for fast and very fast CMEs (VPOS > 700 km/s) the shallow ice-cream model gives much better results. CMEs with 691-878 km/s POS speeds have a minimum ToA mean absolute error (MAE) of 11.6 hours. This method, is robust, easy to use, and has immediate applicability to Space Weather forecasting applications. Moreover, regarding the speed of CMEs, our work suggests that single viewpoint observations are generally reliable.

astro-ph.SR

Synthesizing Coupled 3D Face Modalities by Trunk-Branch Generative Adversarial Networks

Generating realistic 3D faces is of high importance for computer graphics and computer vision applications. Generally, research on 3D face generation revolves around linear statistical models of the facial surface. Nevertheless, these models cannot represent faithfully either the facial texture or the normals of the face, which are very crucial for photo-realistic face synthesis. Recently, it was demonstrated that Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) can be used for generating high-quality textures of faces. Nevertheless, the generation process either omits the geometry and normals, or independent processes are used to produce 3D shape information. In this paper, we present the first methodology that generates high-quality texture, shape, and normals jointly, which can be used for photo-realistic synthesis. To do so, we propose a novel GAN that can generate data from different modalities while exploiting their correlations. Furthermore, we demonstrate how we can condition the generation on the expression and create faces with various facial expressions. The qualitative results shown in this paper are compressed due to size limitations, full-resolution results and the accompanying video can be found in the supplementary documents. The code and models are available at the project page: https://github.com/barisgecer/TBGAN.

cs.CV

From Starspots to Stellar Coronal Mass Ejections -- Revisiting Empirical Stellar Relations

Upcoming missions, including the James Webb Space Telescope, will soon characterize the atmospheres of terrestrial-type exoplanets in habitable zones around cool K- and M-type stars searching for atmospheric biosignatures. Recent observations suggest that the ionizing radiation and particle environment from active cool planet hosts may be detrimental for exoplanetary habitability. Since no direct information on the radiation field is available, empirical relations between signatures of stellar activity, including the sizes and magnetic fields of starspots, are often used. Here, we revisit the empirical relation between the starspot size and the effective stellar temperature and evaluate its impact on estimates of stellar flare energies, coronal mass ejections, and fluxes of the associated stellar energetic particle events.

astro-ph.SR

Evidence for a Coronal Shock Wave Origin for Relativistic Protons Producing Solar Gamma-Rays and Observed by Neutron Monitors at Earth

We study the solar eruptive event on 2017 September 10 that produced long-lasting $>$100 MeV $γ$-ray emission and a ground level enhancement (GLE72). The origin of the high-energy ions producing late-phase gamma-ray emission (LPGRE) is still an open question, but a possible explanation is proton acceleration at coronal shocks produced by coronal mass ejections. We examine a common shock acceleration origin for both the LPGRE and GLE72. The $γ$-ray emission observed by the Fermi-Large Area Telescope exhibits a weak impulsive phase, consistent with that observed in hard X-and $γ$-ray line flare emissions, and what appear to be two distinct stages of LPGRE. From a detailed modeling of the shock wave, we derive the 3D distribution and temporal evolution of the shock parameters, and we examine the shock wave magnetic connection with the visible solar disk. The evolution of shock parameters on field lines returning to the visible disk, mirrors the two stages of LPGRE. We find good agreement between the time history of $>$100 MeV $γ$-rays and one produced by a basic shock acceleration model. The time history of shock parameters magnetically mapped to Earth agrees with the rates observed by the Fort Smith neutron monitor during the first hour of the GLE72 if we include a 30% contribution of flare-accelerated protons during the first 10 minutes, having a release time following the time history of nuclear $γ$-rays. Our analysis provides compelling evidence for a common shock origin for protons producing the LPGRE and most of the particles observed in GLE72.

astro-ph.SR

Comparing the Properties of ICME-Induced Forbush Decreases at Earth and Mars

Forbush decreases (FDs), which are short-term drops in the flux of galactic cosmic rays, are caused by the shielding from strong and/or turbulent magnetic structures in the solar wind, especially interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and their associated shocks, as well as corotating interaction regions. Such events can be observed at Earth, for example, using neutron monitors, and also at many other locations in the solar system, such as on the surface of Mars with the Radiation Assessment Detector instrument onboard Mars Science Laboratory. They are often used as a proxy for detecting the arrival of ICMEs or corotating interaction regions, especially when sufficient in situ solar wind measurements are not available. We compare the properties of FDs observed at Earth and Mars, focusing on events produced by ICMEs. We find that FDs at both locations show a correlation between their total amplitude and the maximum hourly decrease, but with different proportionality factors. We explain this difference using theoretical modeling approaches and suggest that it is related to the size increase of ICMEs, and in particular their sheath regions, en route from Earth to Mars. From the FD data, we can derive the sheath broadening factor to be between about 1.5 and 1.9, agreeing with our theoretical considerations. This factor is also in line with previous measurements of the sheath evolution closer to the Sun.

physics.space-ph