arXiv subjects

Athen Ma

Publications and source records attributed to Athen Ma.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Predicting Dynamics of Ultra-Large Complex Systems by Inferring Governing Equations

Predicting the behavior of ultra-large complex systems, from climate to biological and technological networks, is a central unsolved challenge. Existing approaches face a fundamental trade-off: equation discovery methods provide interpretability but fail to scale, while neural networks scale but operate as black boxes and often lose reliability over long times. Here, we introduce the Sparse Identification Graph Neural Network, a framework that overcome this divide by allowing to infer the governing equations of large networked systems from data. By defining symbolic discovery as edge-level information, SIGN decouples the scalability of sparse identification from network size, enabling efficient equation discovery even in large systems. SIGN allows to study networks with over 100,000 nodes while remaining robust to noise, sparse sampling, and missing data. Across diverse benchmark systems, including coupled chaotic oscillators, neural dynamics, and epidemic spreading, it recovers governing equations with high precision and sustains accurate long-term predictions. Applied to a data set of time series of temperature measurements in 71,987 sea surface positions, SIGN identifies a compact predictive network model and captures large-scale sea surface temperature conditions up to two years in advance. By enabling equation discovery at previously inaccessible scales, SIGN opens a path toward interpretable and reliable prediction of real-world complex systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

The importance of quality in austere times: University competitiveness and grant income

After 2009 many governments implemented austerity measures, often restricting science funding. Did such restrictions further skew grant income towards elite scientists and universities? And did increased competition for funding undermine participation? UK science funding agencies significantly reduced numbers of grants and total grant funding in response to austerity, but surprisingly restrictions of science funding were relaxed after the 2015 general election. Exploiting this natural experiment, we show that conventional measures of university competitiveness are poor proxies for competitiveness. An alternative measure of university competitiveness, drawn from complexity science, captures the highly dynamical way in which universities engage in scientific subjects. Building on a data set of 43,430 UK funded grants between 2006 and 2020, we analyse rankings of UK universities and investigate the effect of research competitiveness on grant income. When austerity was relaxed in 2015 the elasticity of grant income w.r.t. research competitiveness fell, reflecting increased effort by researchers at less competitive universities. These scientists increased number and size of grant applications, increasing grant income. The study reveals how funding agencies, facing heterogeneous competitiveness in the population of scientists, affect research effort across the distribution of competitiveness.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2021

Interdisciplinary researchers attain better performance in funding

Interdisciplinary research is fundamental when it comes to tackling complex problems in our highly interlinked world, and is on the rise globally. Yet, it is unclear why--in an increasingly competitive academic environment--one should pursue an interdisciplinary career given its recent negative press. Several studies have indeed shown that interdisciplinary research often achieves lower impact compared to more specialized work, and is less likely to attract funding. We seek to reconcile such evidence by analyzing a dataset of 44,419 research grants awarded between 2006 and 2018 from the seven national research councils in the UK. We compared the research performance of researchers with an interdisciplinary funding track record with those who have a specialized profile. We found that the former dominates the network of academic collaborations, both in terms of centrality and knowledge brokerage; but such a competitive advantage does not immediately translate into impact. Indeed, by means of a matched pair experimental design, we found that researchers who transcend between disciplines on average achieve lower impacts in their publications than the subject specialists in the short run, but eventually outperform them in funding performance, both in terms of volume and value. Our results suggest that launching an interdisciplinary career may require more time and persistence to overcome extra challenges, but can pave the way for a more successful endeavour.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2015

Funding shapes the anatomy of scientific research

Research projects are primarily collaborative in nature through internal and external partnerships, but what role does funding play in their formation? Here, we examined over 43,000 funded projects in the past three decades, enabling us to characterise changes in the funding landscape and their impacts on the underlying collaboration patterns. We observed rising inequality in the distribution of funding and its effect was most noticeable at the institutional level in which the leading universities diversified their collaborations and increasingly became the knowledge brokers. Furthermore, these universities formed a cohesive core through their close ties, and such reliance appeared to be a key for their research success, with the elites in the core over-attracting resources but in turn rewarding in both research breadth and depth. Our results reveal how collaboration networks undergo previously unknown adaptive organisation in response to external driving forces, which can have far-reaching implications for future policy.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Rich-cores in networks

A core is said to be a group of central and densely connected nodes which governs the overall behavior of a network. Profiling this meso--scale structure currently relies on a limited number of methods which are often complex, and have scalability issues when dealing with very large networks. As a result, we are yet to fully understand its impact on network properties and dynamics. Here we introduce a simple method to profile this structure by combining the concepts of core/periphery and rich-club. The key challenge in addressing such association of the two concepts is to establish a way to define the membership of the core. The notion of a "rich-club" describes nodes which are essentially the hub of a network, as they play a dominating role in structural and functional properties. Interestingly, the definition of a rich-club naturally emphasizes high degree nodes and divides a network into two subgroups. Our approach theoretically couples the underlying principle of a rich-club with the escape time of a random walker, and a rich-core is defined by examining changes in the associated persistence probability. The method is fast and scalable to large networks. In particular, we successfully show that the evolution of the core in \emph{C. elegans} and World Trade networks correspond to key development stages and responses to historical events respectively.

physics.soc-ph↗