Multi-type branching inference on contact trees with application to COVID-19
Inferring epidemiological parameters from transmission trees is essential for understanding infectious disease dynamics. Existing tree-based likelihood methods, including the multi-type birth-death models originally applied in phylodynamic settings, provide powerful tools, but most assume homogeneous mixing and rarely capture how transmission potential changes as an individual infects more of their contacts. In this work, we develop a likelihood framework that operates directly on transmission trees, in which nodes are individuals and edges are reported transmission events, with no sequence data involved. We derive a likelihood for a stochastic SIR process on a rooted contact tree in which each infected individual is characterised by the total number of effective contacts, and the number of already infected downstream contacts. We obtain closed-form ordinary differential equations for the probability that a clade goes entirely unobserved and for the probability density that it produces an observed (sampled) tip in a given state. The resulting likelihood can be evaluated for a rooted contact tree with known tip states, and we extend it to partially resolved trees by treating internal branching times as latent variables. Validation on simulated outbreaks confirms accurate parameter recovery and well calibrated uncertainty. Application to empirical COVID-19 contact-tracing data from Karnataka, India, demonstrates the framework's utility for real epidemiological settings. By incorporating contact-degree heterogeneity in a multi-type branching likelihood, our work provides a principled baseline for inferring both transmission dynamics and contact structure from fully or partially resolved transmission trees, complementing rather than relying on sequence-based phylodynamic inference