arXiv subjects

Augusto Santos

Publications and source records attributed to Augusto Santos.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The Powers of Precision: Structure-Informed Detection in Complex Systems -- From Customer Churn to Seizure Onset

Emergent phenomena -- onset of epileptic seizures, sudden customer churn, or pandemic outbreaks -- often arise from hidden causal interactions in complex systems. We propose a machine learning method for their early detection that addresses a core challenge: unveiling and harnessing a system's latent causal structure despite the data-generating process being unknown and partially observed. The method learns an optimal feature representation from a one-parameter family of estimators -- powers of the empirical covariance or precision matrix -- offering a principled way to tune in to the underlying structure driving the emergence of critical events. A supervised learning module then classifies the learned representation. We prove structural consistency of the family and demonstrate the empirical soundness of our approach on seizure detection and churn prediction, attaining competitive results in both. Beyond prediction, and toward explainability, we ascertain that the optimal covariance power exhibits evidence of good identifiability while capturing structural signatures, thus reconciling predictive performance with interpretable statistical structure.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Inferring the Graph Structure of Images for Graph Neural Networks

Image datasets such as MNIST are a key benchmark for testing Graph Neural Network (GNN) architectures. The images are traditionally represented as a grid graph with each node representing a pixel and edges connecting neighboring pixels (vertically and horizontally). The graph signal is the values (intensities) of each pixel in the image. The graphs are commonly used as input to graph neural networks (e.g., Graph Convolutional Neural Networks (Graph CNNs) [1, 2], Graph Attention Networks (GAT) [3], GatedGCN [4]) to classify the images. In this work, we improve the accuracy of downstream graph neural network tasks by finding alternative graphs to the grid graph and superpixel methods to represent the dataset images, following the approach in [5, 6]. We find row correlation, column correlation, and product graphs for each image in MNIST and Fashion-MNIST using correlations between the pixel values building on the method in [5, 6]. Experiments show that using these different graph representations and features as input into downstream GNN models improves the accuracy over using the traditional grid graph and superpixel methods in the literature.

eess.IV↗

arXiv2024

Learning the Causal Structure of Networked Dynamical Systems under Latent Nodes and Structured Noise

This paper considers learning the hidden causal network of a linear networked dynamical system (NDS) from the time series data at some of its nodes -- partial observability. The dynamics of the NDS are driven by colored noise that generates spurious associations across pairs of nodes, rendering the problem much harder. To address the challenge of noise correlation and partial observability, we assign to each pair of nodes a feature vector computed from the time series data of observed nodes. The feature embedding is engineered to yield structural consistency: there exists an affine hyperplane that consistently partitions the set of features, separating the feature vectors corresponding to connected pairs of nodes from those corresponding to disconnected pairs. The causal inference problem is thus addressed via clustering the designed features. We demonstrate with simple baseline supervised methods the competitive performance of the proposed causal inference mechanism under broad connectivity regimes and noise correlation levels, including a real world network. Further, we devise novel technical guarantees of structural consistency for linear NDS under the considered regime.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Inferring the Graph of Networked Dynamical Systems under Partial Observability and Spatially Colored Noise

In a Networked Dynamical System (NDS), each node is a system whose dynamics are coupled with the dynamics of neighboring nodes. The global dynamics naturally builds on this network of couplings and it is often excited by a noise input with nontrivial structure. The underlying network is unknown in many applications and should be inferred from observed data. We assume: i) Partial observability -- time series data is only available over a subset of the nodes; ii) Input noise -- it is correlated across distinct nodes while temporally independent, i.e., it is spatially colored. We present a feasibility condition on the noise correlation structure wherein there exists a consistent network inference estimator to recover the underlying fundamental dependencies among the observed nodes. Further, we describe a structure identification algorithm that exhibits competitive performance across distinct regimes of network connectivity, observability, and noise correlation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

PSO-Convolutional Neural Networks with Heterogeneous Learning Rate

Convolutional Neural Networks (ConvNets or CNNs) have been candidly deployed in the scope of computer vision and related fields. Nevertheless, the dynamics of training of these neural networks lie still elusive: it is hard and computationally expensive to train them. A myriad of architectures and training strategies have been proposed to overcome this challenge and address several problems in image processing such as speech, image and action recognition as well as object detection. In this article, we propose a novel Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) based training for ConvNets. In such framework, the vector of weights of each ConvNet is typically cast as the position of a particle in phase space whereby PSO collaborative dynamics intertwines with Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) in order to boost training performance and generalization. Our approach goes as follows: i) [regular phase] each ConvNet is trained independently via SGD; ii) [collaborative phase] ConvNets share among themselves their current vector of weights (or particle-position) along with their gradient estimates of the Loss function. Distinct step sizes are coined by distinct ConvNets. By properly blending ConvNets with large (possibly random) step-sizes along with more conservative ones, we propose an algorithm with competitive performance with respect to other PSO-based approaches on Cifar-10 and Cifar-100 (accuracy of 98.31% and 87.48%). These accuracy levels are obtained by resorting to only four ConvNets -- such results are expected to scale with the number of collaborative ConvNets accordingly. We make our source codes available for download https://github.com/leonlha/PSO-ConvNet-Dynamics.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2023

Recovering the Graph Underlying Networked Dynamical Systems under Partial Observability: A Deep Learning Approach

We study the problem of graph structure identification, i.e., of recovering the graph of dependencies among time series. We model these time series data as components of the state of linear stochastic networked dynamical systems. We assume partial observability, where the state evolution of only a subset of nodes comprising the network is observed. We devise a new feature vector computed from the observed time series and prove that these features are linearly separable, i.e., there exists a hyperplane that separates the cluster of features associated with connected pairs of nodes from those associated with disconnected pairs. This renders the features amenable to train a variety of classifiers to perform causal inference. In particular, we use these features to train Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). The resulting causal inference mechanism outperforms state-of-the-art counterparts w.r.t. sample-complexity. The trained CNNs generalize well over structurally distinct networks (dense or sparse) and noise-level profiles. Remarkably, they also generalize well to real-world networks while trained over a synthetic network (realization of a random graph). Finally, the proposed method consistently reconstructs the graph in a pairwise manner, that is, by deciding if an edge or arrow is present or absent in each pair of nodes, from the corresponding time series of each pair. This fits the framework of large-scale systems, where observation or processing of all nodes in the network is prohibitive.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Graph Learning Under Partial Observability

Many optimization, inference and learning tasks can be accomplished efficiently by means of decentralized processing algorithms where the network topology (i.e., the graph) plays a critical role in enabling the interactions among neighboring nodes. There is a large body of literature examining the effect of the graph structure on the performance of decentralized processing strategies. In this article, we examine the inverse problem and consider the reverse question: How much information does observing the behavior at the nodes of a graph convey about the underlying topology? For large-scale networks, the difficulty in addressing such inverse problems is compounded by the fact that usually only a limited fraction of the nodes can be probed, giving rise to a second important question: Despite the presence of unobserved nodes, can partial observations still be sufficient to discover the graph linking the probed nodes? The article surveys recent advances on this challenging learning problem and related questions.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2020

Graph Learning over Partially Observed Diffusion Networks: Role of Degree Concentration

This work examines the problem of graph learning over a diffusion network when data can be collected from a limited portion of the network (partial observability). The main question is to establish technical guarantees of consistent recovery of the subgraph of probed network nodes, i) despite the presence of unobserved nodes; and ii) under different connectivity regimes, including the dense regime where the probed nodes are influenced by many connections coming from the unobserved ones. We ascertain that suitable estimators of the combination matrix (i.e., the matrix that quantifies the pairwise interaction between nodes) possess an identifiability gap that enables the discrimination between connected and disconnected nodes. Fundamental conditions are established under which the subgraph of monitored nodes can be recovered, with high probability as the network size increases, through universal clustering algorithms. This claim is proved for three matrix estimators: i) the Granger estimator that adapts to the partial observability setting the solution that is exact under full observability ; ii) the one-lag correlation matrix; and iii) the residual estimator based on the difference between two consecutive time samples. A detailed characterization of the asymptotic behavior of these estimators is established in terms of an error bias and of the identifiability gap, and a sample complexity analysis is performed to establish how the number of samples scales with the network size to achieve consistent learning. Comparison among the estimators is performed through illustrative examples that show how estimators that are not optimal in the full observability regime can outperform the Granger estimator in the partial observability regime. The analysis reveals that the fundamental property enabling consistent graph learning is the statistical concentration of node degrees.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

Learning Graph Influence from Social Interactions

In social learning, agents form their opinions or beliefs about certain hypotheses by exchanging local information. This work considers the recent paradigm of weak graphs, where the network is partitioned into sending and receiving components, with the former having the possibility of exerting a domineering effect on the latter. Such graph structures are prevalent over social platforms. We will not be focusing on the direct social learning problem (which examines what agents learn), but rather on the dual or reverse learning problem (which examines how agents learned). Specifically, from observations of the stream of beliefs at certain agents, we would like to examine whether it is possible to learn the strength of the connections (influences) from sending components in the network to these receiving agents.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2019

Interplay between Topology and Social Learning over Weak Graphs

We consider a social learning problem, where a network of agents is interested in selecting one among a finite number of hypotheses. We focus on weakly-connected graphs where the network is partitioned into a sending part and a receiving part. The data collected by the agents might be heterogeneous. For example, some sub-networks might intentionally generate data from a fake hypothesis in order to influence other agents. The social learning task is accomplished via a diffusion strategy where each agent: i) updates individually its belief using its private data; ii) computes a new belief by exponentiating a linear combination of the log-beliefs of its neighbors. First, we examine what agents learn over weak graphs (social learning problem). We obtain analytical formulas for the beliefs at the different agents, which reveal how the agents' detection capability and the network topology interact to influence the beliefs. In particular, the formulas allow us to predict when a leader-follower behavior is possible, where some sending agents can control the mind of the receiving agents by forcing them to choose a particular hypothesis. Second, we consider the dual or reverse learning problem that reveals how agents learned: given a stream of beliefs collected at a receiving agent, we would like to discover the global influence that any sending component exerts on this receiving agent (topology learning problem). A remarkable and perhaps unexpected interplay between social and topology learning is observed: given $H$ hypotheses and $S$ sending components, topology learning can be feasible when $H\geq S$. The latter being only a necessary condition, we examine the feasibility of topology learning for two useful classes of problems. The analysis reveals that a critical element to enable faithful topology learning is the diversity in the statistical models of the sending sub-networks.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2019

Local Tomography of Large Networks under the Low-Observability Regime

This article studies the problem of reconstructing the topology of a network of interacting agents via observations of the state-evolution of the agents. We focus on the large-scale network setting with the additional constraint of $partial$ observations, where only a small fraction of the agents can be feasibly observed. The goal is to infer the underlying subnetwork of interactions and we refer to this problem as $local$ $tomography$. In order to study the large-scale setting, we adopt a proper stochastic formulation where the unobserved part of the network is modeled as an Erdös-Rényi random graph, while the observable subnetwork is left arbitrary. The main result of this work is establishing that, under this setting, local tomography is actually possible with high probability, provided that certain conditions on the network model are met (such as stability and symmetry of the network combination matrix). Remarkably, such conclusion is established under the $low$-$observability$ $regime$, where the cardinality of the observable subnetwork is fixed, while the size of the overall network scales to infinity.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2019

Topology Inference over Networks with Nonlinear Coupling

This work examines the problem of topology inference over discrete-time nonlinear stochastic networked dynamical systems. The goal is to recover the underlying digraph linking the network agents, from observations of their state-evolution. The dynamical law governing the state-evolution of the interacting agents might be nonlinear, i.e., the next state of an agent can depend nonlinearly on its current state and on the states of its immediate neighbors. We establish sufficient conditions that allow consistent graph learning over a special class of networked systems, namely, logistic-type dynamical systems.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2013

Epidemics in Multipartite Networks: Emergent Dynamics

Single virus epidemics over complete networks are widely explored in the literature as the fraction of infected nodes is, under appropriate microscopic modeling of the virus infection, a Markov process. With non-complete networks, this macroscopic variable is no longer Markov. In this paper, we study virus diffusion, in particular, multi-virus epidemics, over non-complete stochastic networks. We focus on multipartite networks. In companying work http://arxiv.org/abs/1306.6198, we show that the peer-to-peer local random rules of virus infection lead, in the limit of large multipartite networks, to the emergence of structured dynamics at the macroscale. The exact fluid limit evolution of the fraction of nodes infected by each virus strain across islands obeys a set of nonlinear coupled differential equations, see http://arxiv.org/abs/1306.6198. In this paper, we develop methods to analyze the qualitative behavior of these limiting dynamics, establishing conditions on the virus micro characteristics and network structure under which a virus persists or a natural selection phenomenon is observed.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2013

Emergent Behavior in Multipartite Large Networks: Multi-virus Epidemics

Epidemics in large complete networks is well established. In contrast, we consider epidemics in non-complete networks. We establish the fluid limit macroscopic dynamics of a multi-virus spread over a multipartite network as the number of nodes at each partite or island grows large. The virus spread follows a peer-to-peer random rule of infection in line with the Harris contact process. The model conforms to an SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) type, where a node is either infected or it is healthy and prone to be infected. The local (at node level) random infection model induces the emergence of structured dynamics at the macroscale. Namely, we prove that, as the multipartite network grows large, the normalized Markov jump vector process $\left(\bar{\mathbf{Y}}^\mathbf{N}(t)\right) = \left(\bar{Y}_1^\mathbf{N}(t),\ldots, \bar{Y}_M^\mathbf{N}(t)\right)$ collecting the fraction of infected nodes at each island $i=1,\ldots,M$, converges weakly (with respect to the Skorokhod topology on the space of \emph{càdlàg} sample paths) to the solution of an $M$-dimensional vector nonlinear coupled ordinary differential equation. In the case of multi-virus diffusion with $K\in\mathbb{N}$ distinct strains of virus, the Markov jurmp matrix process $\left(\bar{\mathbf{Y}}^\mathbf{N}(t)\right)$, stacking the fraction of nodes infected with virus type $j$, $j=1,\ldots,K$, at each island $i=1,\ldots,M$, converges weakly as well to the solution of a $\left(K\times M\right)$-dimensional vector differential equation that is also characterized.

cs.SI↗