arXiv subjects

Aurélien Alfonsi

Publications and source records attributed to Aurélien Alfonsi.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Ergodic approximation for the invariant distribution: An abstract framework for law-dependent dynamics

This paper studies the approximation of invariant distributions for a broad class of law-dependent dynamics, including McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations and Boltzmann-type equations. We consider discrete-time approximation schemes with decreasing time steps and analyse the convergence of their associated ergodic (or occupation) measure towards the invariant distribution of the underlying continuous-time process. Under a general coupling assumption, we prove convergence in the expected $p$-Wasserstein distance ($p \ge 1$) and derive explicit convergence rates. Our approach combines estimates on ergodic averages, regularization techniques for discrete measures, and a generalized discrete Gronwall lemma to control the error between the self-interacting scheme and the target invariant measure. We show that our framework applies to a wide range of models: McKean-Vlasov SDEs, a Boltzmann type equation, and a neuronal model.

math.PR↗

arXiv2026

Weak solutions of Stochastic Volterra Equations in convex domains with general kernels

We establish new weak existence results for $d$-dimensional Stochastic Volterra Equations (SVEs) with continuous coefficients and possibly singular one-dimensional non-convolution kernels. These results are obtained by introducing an approximation scheme and showing its convergence. A particular emphasis is made on the stochastic invariance of the solution in a closed convex set. To do so, we extend the notion of kernels that preserve nonnegativity introduced in \cite{Alfonsi23} to non-convolution kernels and show that, under suitable stochastic invariance property of a closed convex set by the corresponding Stochastic Differential Equation, there exists a weak solution of the SVE that stays in this convex set. We present a family of non-convolution kernels that satisfy our assumptions, including a non-convolution extension of the well-known fractional kernel. We apply our results to SVEs with square-root diffusion coefficients and non-convolution kernels, for which we prove the weak existence and uniqueness of a solution that stays within the nonnegative orthant. We derive a representation of the Laplace transform in terms of a non-convolution Riccati equation, for which we establish an existence result.

math.PR↗

arXiv2026

Euler-type approximation for the invariant measure: An abstract framework

We establish a general framework to study the rate of convergence of a Euler type approximation scheme with decreasing time steps to the invariant measure, for a general class of stochastic systems. The error is measured in general Wasserstein distances, which enables to encompass cases with non global contractivity conditions. Our main assumption is a coupling property which is expressed in terms of the one-step approximation. We show that the proposed set-up can be applied to a wide range of equations that may be law dependent, such as Langevin equations, reflected equations, Boltzmann type equations and for a recent McKean Vlasov type model for neuronal activity.

math.PR↗

arXiv2026

Weak error approximation for rough and Gaussian mean-reverting stochastic volatility models

For a class of stochastic models with Gaussian and rough mean-reverting volatility that embeds the genuine rough Stein-Stein model, we study the weak approximation rate when using a Euler type scheme with integrated kernels. Our first result is a weak convergence rate for the discretised rough Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, that is essentially in $\min(3α-1,1)$, where $\frac{t^{α-1}}{Γ(α)} $ is the fractional convolution kernel with $α\in (1/2,1)$. Then, our main result is to obtain the same convergence rate for the corresponding stochastic rough volatility model with polynomial test functions.

math.PR↗

arXiv2026

How can the dual martingale help solving the primal optimal stopping problem?

Motivated by recent results on the dual formulation of optimal stopping problems, we investigate in this short paper how the knowledge of an approximating dual martingale can improve the efficiency of primal methods. In particular, we show on numerical examples that accurate approximations of a dual martingale efficiently reduce the variance for the primal optimal stopping problem.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2025

A tree-based Polynomial Chaos expansion for surrogate modeling and sensitivity analysis of complex numerical models

This paper introduces Tree-based Polynomial Chaos Expansion (Tree-PCE), a novel surrogate modeling technique designed to efficiently approximate complex numerical models exhibiting nonlinearities and discontinuities. Tree-PCE combines the expressive power of Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) with an adaptive partitioning strategy inspired by regression trees. By recursively dividing the input space into hyperrectangular subdomains and fitting localized PCEs, Tree-PCE constructs a piecewise polynomial surrogate that improves both accuracy and computational efficiency. The method is particularly well-suited for global sensitivity analysis, enabling direct computation of Sobol' indices from local expansion coefficients and introducing a new class of sensitivity indices derived from the tree structure itself. Numerical experiments on synthetic and real-world models, including a 2D morphodynamic case, demonstrate that Tree-PCE offers a favorable balance between accuracy and complexity, especially in the presence of discontinuities. While its performance depends on the compromise between the number of subdomains and the degree of local polynomials, this trade-off can be explored using automated hyperparameter optimization frameworks. This opens promising perspectives for systematically identifying optimal configurations and enhancing the robustness of surrogate modeling in complex systems.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Quadratic Wasserstein distance between Gaussian laws revisited with correlation

In this note, we give a simple derivation of the formula obtained in Dowson and Landau (1982), Olkin and Pukelsheim (1982) and Givens and Shortt (1984) for the quadratic Wasserstein distance between two Gaussian distributions on $\R^d$ with respective covariance matrices $Σ_μ$ and $Σ_ν$. This derivation relies on the existence of an orthogonal matrix $O$ such that $O^*Σ_μO$ and $O^*Σ_νO$ share the same correlation matrix and on the simplicity of optimal couplings in the case with the same correlation matrix and therefore the same copula.

math.PR↗

arXiv2025

Wasserstein projections in the convex order: regularity and characterization in the quadratic Gaussian case

In this paper, we first show continuity of both Wasserstein projections in the convex order when they are unique. We also check that, in arbitrary dimension $d$, the quadratic Wasserstein projection of a probability measure $μ$ on the set of probability measures dominated by $ν$ in the convex order is non-expansive in $μ$ and Hölder continuous with exponent $1/2$ in $ν$. When $μ$ and $ν$ are Gaussian, we check that this projection is Gaussian and also consider the quadratic Wasserstein projection on the set of probability measures $ν$ dominating $μ$ in the convex order. In the case when $d\ge 2$ and $ν$ is not absolutely continuous with respect to the Lebesgue measure where uniqueness of the latter projection was not known, we check that there is always a unique Gaussian projection and characterize when non Gaussian projections with the same covariance matrix also exist. Still for Gaussian distributions, we characterize the covariance matrices of the two projections. It turns out that there exists an orthogonal transformation of space under which the computations are similar to the easy case when the covariance matrices of $μ$ and $ν$ are diagonal.

math.PR↗

arXiv2024

High order approximations and simulation schemes for the log-Heston process

We present weak approximations schemes of any order for the Heston model that are obtained by using the method developed by Alfonsi and Bally (2021). This method consists in combining approximation schemes calculated on different random grids to increase the order of convergence. We apply this method with either the Ninomiya-Victoir scheme (2008) or a second-order scheme that samples exactly the volatility component, and we show rigorously that we can achieve then any order of convergence. We give numerical illustrations on financial examples that validate the theoretical order of convergence. We also present promising numerical results for the multifactor/rough Heston model and hint at applications to other models, including the Bates model and the double Heston model.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2024

Stochastic sewing lemma on Wasserstein space

The stochastic sewing lemma recently introduced by Le~(2020) allows to construct a unique limit process from a doubly indexed stochastic process that satisfies some regularity. This lemma is stated in a given probability space on which these processes are defined. The present paper develops a version of this lemma for probability measures: from a doubly indexed family of maps on the set of probability measures that have a suitable probabilistic representation, we are able to construct a limit flow of maps on the probability measures. This result complements and improves the existing result coming from the classical sewing lemma. It is applied to the case of law-dependent jump SDEs for which we obtain weak existence result as well as the uniqueness of the marginal laws.

math.PR↗

arXiv2024

A pure dual approach for hedging Bermudan options

This paper develops a new dual approach to compute the hedging portfolio of a Bermudan option and its initial value. It gives a "purely dual" algorithm following the spirit of Rogers (2010) in the sense that it only relies on the dual pricing formula. The key is to rewrite the dual formula as an excess reward representation and to combine it with a strict convexification technique. The hedging strategy is then obtained by using a Monte Carlo method, solving backward a sequence of least square problems. We show convergence results for our algorithm and test it on many different Bermudan options. Beyond giving directly the hedging portfolio, the strength of the algorithm is to assess both the relevance of including financial instruments in the hedging portfolio and the effect of the rebalancing frequency.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2024

Nonnegativity preserving convolution kernels. Application to Stochastic Volterra Equations in closed convex domains and their approximation

This work defines and studies one-dimensional convolution kernels that preserve nonnegativity. When the past dynamics of a process is integrated with a convolution kernel like in Stochastic Volterra Equations or in the jump intensity of Hawkes processes, this property allows to get the nonnegativity of the integral. We give characterizations of these kernels and show in particular that completely monotone kernels preserve nonnegativity. We then apply these results to analyze the stochastic invariance of a closed convex set by Stochastic Volterra Equations. We also get a comparison result in dimension one. Last, when the kernel is a positive linear combination of decaying exponential functions, we present a second order approximation scheme for the weak error that stays in the closed convex domain under suitable assumptions. We apply these results to the rough Heston model and give numerical illustrations.

math.PR↗

arXiv2024

On non-negative solutions of stochastic Volterra equations with jumps and non-Lipschitz coefficients

We consider one-dimensional stochastic Volterra equations with jumps for which we establish conditions upon the convolution kernel and coefficients for the strong existence and pathwise uniqueness of a non-negative càdlàg solution. By using the approach recently developed in arXiv:2302.07758, we show the strong existence by using a nonnegative approximation of the equation whose convergence is proved via a variant of the Yamada--Watanabe approximation technique. We apply our results to Lévy-driven stochastic Volterra equations. In particular, we are able to define a Volterra extension of the so-called alpha-stable Cox--Ingersoll--Ross process, which is especially used for applications in Mathematical Finance.

math.PR↗

arXiv2024

Risk valuation of quanto derivatives on temperature and electricity

This paper develops a coupled model for day-ahead electricity prices and average daily temperature which allows to model quanto weather and energy derivatives. These products have gained on popularity as they enable to hedge against both volumetric and price risks. Electricity day-ahead prices and average daily temperatures are modelled through non homogeneous Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes driven by a Brownian motion and a Normal Inverse Gaussian Lévy process, which allows to include dependence between them. A Conditional Least Square method is developed to estimate the different parameters of the model and used on real data. Then, explicit and semi-explicit formulas are obtained for derivatives including quanto options and compared with Monte Carlo simulations. Last, we develop explicit formulas to hedge statically single and double sided quanto options by a portfolio of electricity options and temperature options (CDD or HDD).

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2023

A stochastic volatility model for the valuation of temperature derivatives

This paper develops a new stochastic volatility model for the temperature that is a natural extension of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model proposed by Benth and Benth (2007). This model allows to be more conservative regarding extreme events while keeping tractability. We give a method based on Conditional Least Squares to estimate the parameters on daily data and estimate our model on eight major European cities. We then show how to calculate efficiently the average payoff of weather derivatives both by Monte-Carlo and Fourier transform techniques. This new model allows to better assess the risk related to temperature volatility.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2023

How many inner simulations to compute conditional expectations with least-square Monte Carlo?

The problem of computing the conditional expectation E[f (Y)|X] with least-square Monte-Carlo is of general importance and has been widely studied. To solve this problem, it is usually assumed that one has as many samples of Y as of X. However, when samples are generated by computer simulation and the conditional law of Y given X can be simulated, it may be relevant to sample K $\in$ N values of Y for each sample of X. The present work determines the optimal value of K for a given computational budget, as well as a way to estimate it. The main take away message is that the computational gain can be all the more important that the computational cost of sampling Y given X is small with respect to the computational cost of sampling X. Numerical illustrations on the optimal choice of K and on the computational gain are given on different examples including one inspired by risk management.

math.ST↗

arXiv2023

High order approximations of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process semigroup using random grids

We present new high order approximations schemes for the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) process that are obtained by using a recent technique developed by Alfonsi and Bally (2021) for the approximation of semigroups. The idea consists in using a suitable combination of discretization schemes calculated on different random grids to increase the order of convergence. This technique coupled with the second order scheme proposed by Alfonsi (2010) for the CIR leads to weak approximations of order $2k$, for all $k\in\mathbb{N}^*$. Despite the singularity of the square-root volatility coefficient, we show rigorously this order of convergence under some restrictions on the volatility parameters. We illustrate numerically the convergence of these approximations for the CIR process and for the Heston stochastic volatility model and show the computational time gain they give.

math.NA↗

arXiv2022

Approximation of Stochastic Volterra Equations with kernels of completely monotone type

In this work, we develop a multifactor approximation for $d$-dimensional Stochastic Volterra Equations (SVE) with Lipschitz coefficients and kernels of completely monotone type that may be singular. First, we prove an $L^2$-estimation between two SVEs with different kernels, which provides a quantification of the error between the SVE and any multifactor Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) approximation. For the particular rough kernel case with Hurst parameter lying in $(0,1/2)$, we propose various approximating multifactor kernels, state their rates of convergence and illustrate their efficiency for the rough Bergomi model. Second, we study a Euler discretization of the multifactor SDE and establish a convergence result towards the SVE that is uniform with respect to the approximating multifactor kernels. These obtained results lead us to build a new multifactor Euler scheme that reduces significantly the computational cost in an asymptotic way compared to the Euler scheme for SVEs. Finally, we show that our multifactor Euler scheme outperforms the Euler scheme for SVEs for option pricing in the rough Heston model.

math.PR↗