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Auroop R. Ganguly

Publications and source records attributed to Auroop R. Ganguly.

33 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

CDA: Contrastive-adversarial Domain Adaptation

Recent advances in domain adaptation reveal that adversarial learning on deep neural networks can learn domain invariant features to reduce the shift between source and target domains. While such adversarial approaches achieve domain-level alignment, they ignore the class (label) shift. When class-conditional data distributions are significantly different between the source and target domain, it can generate ambiguous features near class boundaries that are more likely to be misclassified. In this work, we propose a two-stage model for domain adaptation called \textbf{C}ontrastive-adversarial \textbf{D}omain \textbf{A}daptation \textbf{(CDA)}. While the adversarial component facilitates domain-level alignment, two-stage contrastive learning exploits class information to achieve higher intra-class compactness across domains resulting in well-separated decision boundaries. Furthermore, the proposed contrastive framework is designed as a plug-and-play module that can be easily embedded with existing adversarial methods for domain adaptation. We conduct experiments on two widely used benchmark datasets for domain adaptation, namely, \textit{Office-31} and \textit{Digits-5}, and demonstrate that CDA achieves state-of-the-art results on both datasets.

cs.CV↗

Climate-mediated shifts in temperature fluctuations promote extinction risk

Climate-mediated changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of thermal stress can destabilize animal populations and promote extinction risk. Using quantile, spectral, and wavelet analyses of temperature projections from the latest generation of earth system models, we show that significant regional differences are expected to arise in the way that temperatures will increase over time. When integrated into empirically-parameterized mathematical models that simulate the dynamical and cumulative effects of thermal stress on the performance of 38 global ectotherm species, the projected spatiotemporal changes in temperature fluctuations are expected to give rise to complex regional changes in population abundance and stability over the course of the 21st century. However, despite their idiosyncratic effects on stability, projected temperatures universally increase extinction risk. These results show that population changes under future climate conditions may be more extensive and complex than the current literature suggests based on the statistical relationship between biological performance and average temperature.

q-bio.PE↗

Robust Causality and False Attribution in Data-Driven Earth Science Discoveries

Causal and attribution studies are essential for earth scientific discoveries and critical for informing climate, ecology, and water policies. However, the current generation of methods needs to keep pace with the complexity of scientific and stakeholder challenges and data availability combined with the adequacy of data-driven methods. Unless carefully informed by physics, they run the risk of conflating correlation with causation or getting overwhelmed by estimation inaccuracies. Given that natural experiments, controlled trials, interventions, and counterfactual examinations are often impractical, information-theoretic methods have been developed and are being continually refined in the earth sciences. Here we show that transfer entropy-based causal graphs, which have recently become popular in the earth sciences with high-profile discoveries, can be spurious even when augmented with statistical significance. We develop a subsample-based ensemble approach for robust causality analysis. Simulated data, and observations in climate and ecohydrology, suggest the robustness and consistency of this approach.

stat.AP↗

Deep Transfer Learning on Satellite Imagery Improves Air Quality Estimates in Developing Nations

Urban air pollution is a public health challenge in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, LMICs lack adequate air quality (AQ) monitoring infrastructure. A persistent challenge has been our inability to estimate AQ accurately in LMIC cities, which hinders emergency preparedness and risk mitigation. Deep learning-based models that map satellite imagery to AQ can be built for high-income countries (HICs) with adequate ground data. Here we demonstrate that a scalable approach that adapts deep transfer learning on satellite imagery for AQ can extract meaningful estimates and insights in LMIC cities based on spatiotemporal patterns learned in HIC cities. The approach is demonstrated for Accra in Ghana, Africa, with AQ patterns learned from two US cities, specifically Los Angeles and New York.

cs.CV↗

A framework for deep learning emulation of numerical models with a case study in satellite remote sensing

Numerical models based on physics represent the state-of-the-art in earth system modeling and comprise our best tools for generating insights and predictions. Despite rapid growth in computational power, the perceived need for higher model resolutions overwhelms the latest-generation computers, reducing the ability of modelers to generate simulations for understanding parameter sensitivities and characterizing variability and uncertainty. Thus, surrogate models are often developed to capture the essential attributes of the full-blown numerical models. Recent successes of machine learning methods, especially deep learning, across many disciplines offer the possibility that complex nonlinear connectionist representations may be able to capture the underlying complex structures and nonlinear processes in earth systems. A difficult test for deep learning-based emulation, which refers to function approximation of numerical models, is to understand whether they can be comparable to traditional forms of surrogate models in terms of computational efficiency while simultaneously reproducing model results in a credible manner. A deep learning emulation that passes this test may be expected to perform even better than simple models with respect to capturing complex processes and spatiotemporal dependencies. Here we examine, with a case study in satellite-based remote sensing, the hypothesis that deep learning approaches can credibly represent the simulations from a surrogate model with comparable computational efficiency. Our results are encouraging in that the deep learning emulation reproduces the results with acceptable accuracy and often even faster performance. We discuss the broader implications of our results in light of the pace of improvements in high-performance implementations of deep learning as well as the growing desire for higher-resolution simulations in the earth sciences.

cs.LG↗

Bayesian Deep Learning Hyperparameter Search for Robust Function Mapping to Polynomials with Noise

Advances in neural architecture search, as well as explainability and interpretability of connectionist architectures, have been reported in the recent literature. However, our understanding of how to design Bayesian Deep Learning (BDL) hyperparameters, specifically, the depth, width and ensemble size, for robust function mapping with uncertainty quantification, is still emerging. This paper attempts to further our understanding by mapping Bayesian connectionist representations to polynomials of different orders with varying noise types and ratios. We examine the noise-contaminated polynomials to search for the combination of hyperparameters that can extract the underlying polynomial signals while quantifying uncertainties based on the noise attributes. Specifically, we attempt to study the question that an appropriate neural architecture and ensemble configuration can be found to detect a signal of any n-th order polynomial contaminated with noise having different distributions and signal-to-noise (SNR) ratios and varying noise attributes. Our results suggest the possible existence of an optimal network depth as well as an optimal number of ensembles for prediction skills and uncertainty quantification, respectively. However, optimality is not discernible for width, even though the performance gain reduces with increasing width at high values of width. Our experiments and insights can be directional to understand theoretical properties of BDL representations and to design practical solutions.

cs.LG↗

Mega Regional Heat Patterns in US Urban Corridors

Current literature suggests that urban heat-islands and their consequences are intensifying under climate change and urbanization. Here we explore the relatively unexplored hypothesis that emerging urban corridors (UCs) spawn megaregions of intense heat which are evident from observations. A delineation of the eleven United States UCs relative to their underlying climatological regions (non-UCs) suggest a surprisingly mixed trend. Medians and trends of winter temperatures over the last 60-years are generally higher in the UCs but no such general trends are observed in the summer. Heat wave metrics related to public health, energy demand and relative intensity do not exhibit significantly higher overall trends. Temperature and heat wave indices in the UCs exhibit high correlations with each other including across seasons. Spatiotemporal patterns in population, along with urbanization, agriculture and elevation, exhibit high (positive or negative) rank correlations with warming and heatwave intensification. The findings can inform climate adaptation in megalopolises.

stat.AP↗

Machine Learning for Robust Identification of Complex Nonlinear Dynamical Systems: Applications to Earth Systems Modeling

Systems exhibiting nonlinear dynamics, including but not limited to chaos, are ubiquitous across Earth Sciences such as Meteorology, Hydrology, Climate and Ecology, as well as Biology such as neural and cardiac processes. However, System Identification remains a challenge. In climate and earth systems models, while governing equations follow from first principles and understanding of key processes has steadily improved, the largest uncertainties are often caused by parameterizations such as cloud physics, which in turn have witnessed limited improvements over the last several decades. Climate scientists have pointed to Machine Learning enhanced parameter estimation as a possible solution, with proof-of-concept methodological adaptations being examined on idealized systems. While climate science has been highlighted as a "Big Data" challenge owing to the volume and complexity of archived model-simulations and observations from remote and in-situ sensors, the parameter estimation process is often relatively a "small data" problem. A crucial question for data scientists in this context is the relevance of state-of-the-art data-driven approaches including those based on deep neural networks or kernel-based processes. Here we consider a chaotic system - two-level Lorenz-96 - used as a benchmark model in the climate science literature, adopt a methodology based on Gaussian Processes for parameter estimation and compare the gains in predictive understanding with a suite of Deep Learning and strawman Linear Regression methods. Our results show that adaptations of kernel-based Gaussian Processes can outperform other approaches under small data constraints along with uncertainty quantification; and needs to be considered as a viable approach in climate science and earth system modeling.

cs.LG↗

Resilience of Urban Transport Network-of-Networks under Intense Flood Hazards Exacerbated by Targeted Attacks

Natural hazards including floods can trigger catastrophic failures in interdependent urban transport network-of-networks (NoNs). Population growth has enhanced transportation demand while urbanization and climate change have intensified urban floods. However, despite the clear need to develop actionable insights for improving the resilience of critical urban lifelines, the theory and methods remain underdeveloped. Furthermore, as infrastructure systems become more intelligent, security experts point to the growing threat of targeted cyber-physical attacks during natural hazards. Here we develop a hypothesis-driven resilience framework for urban transport NoNs, which we demonstrate on the London Rail Network (LRN). We find that topological attributes designed for maximizing efficiency rather than robustness render the network more vulnerable to compound natural-targeted threats including cascading failures. Our results suggest that an organizing principle for post-disruption recovery may be developed with network science principles. Our findings and frameworks can generalize to urban lifelines and more generally to real-world spatial networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

Quantifying Uncertainty in Discrete-Continuous and Skewed Data with Bayesian Deep Learning

Deep Learning (DL) methods have been transforming computer vision with innovative adaptations to other domains including climate change. For DL to pervade Science and Engineering (S&E) applications where risk management is a core component, well-characterized uncertainty estimates must accompany predictions. However, S&E observations and model-simulations often follow heavily skewed distributions and are not well modeled with DL approaches, since they usually optimize a Gaussian, or Euclidean, likelihood loss. Recent developments in Bayesian Deep Learning (BDL), which attempts to capture uncertainties from noisy observations, aleatoric, and from unknown model parameters, epistemic, provide us a foundation. Here we present a discrete-continuous BDL model with Gaussian and lognormal likelihoods for uncertainty quantification (UQ). We demonstrate the approach by developing UQ estimates on `DeepSD', a super-resolution based DL model for Statistical Downscaling (SD) in climate applied to precipitation, which follows an extremely skewed distribution. We find that the discrete-continuous models outperform a basic Gaussian distribution in terms of predictive accuracy and uncertainty calibration. Furthermore, we find that the lognormal distribution, which can handle skewed distributions, produces quality uncertainty estimates at the extremes. Such results may be important across S&E, as well as other domains such as finance and economics, where extremes are often of significant interest. Furthermore, to our knowledge, this is the first UQ model in SD where both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties are characterized.

cs.LG↗

Physics-guided probabilistic modeling of extreme precipitation under climate change

Earth System Models (ESMs) are the state of the art for projecting the effects of climate change. However, longstanding uncertainties in their ability to simulate regional and local precipitation extremes and related processes inhibit decision making. Stakeholders would be best supported by probabilistic projections of changes in extreme precipitation at relevant space-time scales. Here we propose an empirical Bayesian model that extends an existing skill and consensus based weighting framework and test the hypothesis that nontrivial, physics-guided measures of ESM skill can help produce reliable probabilistic characterization of climate extremes. Specifically, the model leverages knowledge of physical relationships between temperature, atmospheric moisture capacity, and extreme precipitation intensity to iteratively weight and combine ESMs and estimate probability distributions of return levels. Out-of-sample validation shows evidence that the Bayesian model is a sound method for deriving reliable probabilistic projections. Beyond precipitation extremes, the framework may be a basis for a generic, physics-guided approach to modeling probability distributions of climate variables in general, extremes or otherwise.

stat.AP↗

Characterizing climate predictability and model response variability from multiple initial condition and multi-model ensembles

Climate models are thought to solve boundary value problems unlike numerical weather prediction, which is an initial value problem. However, climate internal variability (CIV) is thought to be relatively important at near-term (0-30 year) prediction horizons, especially at higher resolutions. The recent availability of significant numbers of multi-model (MME) and multi-initial condition (MICE) ensembles allows for the first time a direct sensitivity analysis of CIV versus model response variability (MRV). Understanding the relative agreement and variability of MME and MICE ensembles for multiple regions, resolutions, and projection horizons is critical for focusing model improvements, diagnostics, and prognosis, as well as impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies. Here we find that CIV (MICE agreement) is lower (higher) than MRV (MME agreement) across all spatial resolutions and projection time horizons for both temperature and precipitation. However, CIV dominates MRV over higher latitudes generally and in specific regions. Furthermore, CIV is considerably larger than MRV for precipitation compared to temperature across all horizontal and projection scales and seasons. Precipitation exhibits larger uncertainties, sharper decay of MICE agreement compared to MME, and relatively greater dominance of CIV over MRV at higher latitudes. The findings are crucial for climate predictability and adaptation strategies at stakeholder-relevant scales.

physics.ao-ph↗

Space-time Trends in U.S. Meteorological Droughts

Understanding droughts in a climate context remains a major challenge. Over the United States, different choices of observations and metrics have often produced diametrically opposite insights. This paper focuses on understanding and characterizing meteorological droughts from station measurements of precipitation. The Standardized Precipitation Index is computed and analyzed to obtain drought severity, duration and frequency. Average drought severity trends are found to be uncertain and data-dependent. Furthermore, the mean and spatial variance do not show any discernible non-stationary behavior. However, the spatial coverage of extreme meteorological droughts in the United States exhibits an increasing trend over nearly all of the last century. Furthermore, the coverage over the last half decade exceeds that of the dust bowl era. Previous literature suggests that climate extremes do not necessarily follow the trends or uncertainties exhibited by the averages. While this possibility has been suggested for droughts, this paper for the first time clearly delineates and differentiates the trends in the mean, variability and extremes of meteorological droughts in the United States, and uncovers the trends in the spatial coverage of extremes. Multiple data sets, as well as years exhibiting large, and possibly anomalous, droughts are carefully examined to characterize trends and uncertainties. Nonlinear dependence among meteorological drought attributes necessitates the use of copula-based tools from probability theory. Severity-duration-frequency curves are generated to demonstrate how these insights may be translated to design and policy.

physics.ao-ph↗

Water Stress on U.S. Power Production at Decadal Time Horizons

Thermoelectric power production at risk, owing to current and projected water scarcity and rising stream temperatures, is assessed for the contiguous United States at decadal scales. Regional water scarcity is driven by climate variability and change, as well as by multi-sector water demand. While a planning horizon of zero to about thirty years is occasionally prescribed by stakeholders, the challenges to risk assessment at these scales include the difficulty in delineating decadal climate trends from intrinsic natural or multiple model variability. Current generation global climate or earth system models are not credible at the spatial resolutions of power plants, especially for surface water quantity and stream temperatures, which further exacerbates the assessment challenge. Population changes, which are difficult to project, cannot serve as adequate proxies for changes in the water demand across sectors. The hypothesis that robust assessments of power production at risk are possible, despite the uncertainties, has been examined as a proof of concept. An approach is presented for delineating water scarcity and temperature from climate models, observations and population storylines, as well as for assessing power production at risk by examining geospatial correlations of power plant locations within regions where the usable water supply for energy production happens to be scarcer and warmer. Our analyses showed that in the near term, more than 200 counties are likely to be exposed to water scarcity in the next three decades. Further, we noticed that stream gauges in more than five counties in the 2030s and ten counties in the 2040s showed a significant increase in water temperature, which exceeded the power plant effluent temperature threshold set by the EPA. Power plants in South Carolina, Louisiana, and Texas are likely to be vulnerable owing to climate-driven water stresses.

econ.GN↗

Network science based quantification of resilience demonstrated on the Indian Railways Network

The structure, interdependence, and fragility of systems ranging from power grids and transportation to ecology, climate, biology and even human communities and the Internet, have been examined through network science. While the response to perturbations has been quantified, recovery strategies for perturbed networks have usually been either discussed conceptually or through anecdotal case studies. Here we develop a network science-based quantitative methods framework for measuring, comparing and interpreting hazard responses and as well as recovery strategies. The framework, motivated by the recently proposed temporal resilience paradigm, is demonstrated with the Indian Railways Network. The methods are demonstrated through the resilience of the network to natural or human-induced hazards and electric grid failure. Simulations inspired by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami and the 2012 North Indian blackout as well as a cyber-physical attack scenario. Multiple metrics are used to generate various recovery strategies, which are simply sequences in which system components should be recovered after a disruption. Quantitative evaluation of recovery strategies suggests that faster and more resource-effective recovery is possible through network centrality measures. Case studies based on two historical events, specifically the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2012 North Indian blackout, and a simulated cyber-physical attack scenario, provides means for interpreting the relative performance of various recovery strategies. Quantitative evaluation of recovery strategies suggests that faster and more resource-effective restoration is possible through network centrality measures, even though the specific strategy may be different for sub-networks or for the partial recovery.

physics.soc-ph↗