arXiv subjects

Austin C. Kozlowski

Publications and source records attributed to Austin C. Kozlowski.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

PreScience: A Dataset and Benchmark for Scientific Forecasting

Can AI systems trained on the existing scientific record forecast the advances that will follow? We introduce PreScience, a dataset and benchmark for scientific forecasting built around 98K recent AI research papers, together with companion papers covering author publication histories and citation links, yielding 502K papers in total. The resulting paper records include titles, abstracts, disambiguated author identities, influential references, topic labels, citation trajectories, and metadata snapshotted to respect temporal cutoffs. We instantiate seven exemplar tasks: five paper-anchored tasks -- contribution generation, collaborator prediction, prior work selection, citation count prediction, and future combination prediction -- and two aggregate topic trend forecasting variants. We develop baselines ranging from simple heuristics and embedding methods to frontier language models and agentic systems, and introduce LACER, an LLM-based metric for evaluating similarity of generated contribution descriptions that agrees better with human judgments than existing metrics. Finally, we compose task models to generate a 12-month synthetic corpus and find that the resulting papers are systematically less diverse and less novel than human-authored research from the same period. We release the PreScience dataset (https://huggingface.co/datasets/allenai/prescience) and code (https://github.com/allenai/prescience).

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Semantic Structure of Feature Space in Large Language Models

We show that the geometric relations between semantic features in large language models' hidden states closely mirror human psychological associations. We construct feature vectors corresponding to 360 words and project them on 32 semantic axes (e.g. beautiful-ugly, soft-hard), and find that these projections correlate highly with human ratings of those words on the respective semantic scales. Second, we find that the cosine similarities between the semantic axes themselves are highly predictive of the correlations between these scales in the survey. Third, we show that substantial variance across the 32 semantic axes lies on a low-dimensional subspace, reproducing patterns typical of human semantic associations. Finally, we demonstrate that steering a word on one semantic axis causes spillover effects on the model's rating of that word on other semantic scales proportionate to the cosine similarity between those semantic axes. These findings suggest that features should be understood not only in isolation but through their geometric relations and the meaningful subspaces they form.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Semantic Structure in Large Language Model Embeddings

Psychological research consistently finds that human ratings of words across diverse semantic scales can be reduced to a low-dimensional form with relatively little information loss. We find that the semantic associations encoded in the embedding matrices of large language models (LLMs) exhibit a similar structure. We show that the projections of words on semantic directions defined by antonym pairs (e.g. kind - cruel) correlate highly with human ratings, and further find that these projections effectively reduce to a 3-dimensional subspace within LLM embeddings, closely resembling the patterns derived from human survey responses. Moreover, we find that shifting tokens along one semantic direction causes off-target effects on geometrically aligned features proportional to their cosine similarity. These findings suggest that semantic features are entangled within LLMs similarly to how they are interconnected in human language, and a great deal of semantic information, despite its apparent complexity, is surprisingly low-dimensional. Furthermore, accounting for this semantic structure may prove essential for avoiding unintended consequences when steering features.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

LLM Social Simulations Are a Promising Research Method

Accurate and verifiable large language model (LLM) simulations of human research subjects promise an accessible data source for understanding human behavior and training new AI systems. However, results to date have been limited, and few social scientists have adopted this method. In this position paper, we argue that the promise of LLM social simulations can be achieved by addressing five tractable challenges. We ground our argument in a review of empirical comparisons between LLMs and human research subjects, commentaries on the topic, and related work. We identify promising directions, including context-rich prompting and fine-tuning with social science datasets. We believe that LLM social simulations can already be used for pilot and exploratory studies, and more widespread use may soon be possible with rapidly advancing LLM capabilities. Researchers should prioritize developing conceptual models and iterative evaluations to make the best use of new AI systems.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2024

In Silico Sociology: Forecasting COVID-19 Polarization with Large Language Models

By training deep neural networks on massive archives of digitized text, large language models (LLMs) learn the complex linguistic patterns that constitute historic and contemporary discourses. We argue that LLMs can serve as a valuable tool for sociological inquiry by enabling accurate simulation of respondents from specific social and cultural contexts. Applying LLMs in this capacity, we reconstruct the public opinion landscape of 2019 to examine the extent to which the future polarization over COVID-19 was prefigured in existing political discourse. Using an LLM trained on texts published through 2019, we simulate the responses of American liberals and conservatives to a battery of pandemic-related questions. We find that the simulated respondents reproduce observed partisan differences in COVID-19 attitudes in 84% of cases, significantly greater than chance. Prompting the simulated respondents to justify their responses, we find that much of the observed partisan gap corresponds to differing appeals to freedom, safety, and institutional trust. Our findings suggest that the politicization of COVID-19 was largely consistent with the prior ideological landscape, and this unprecedented event served to advance history along its track rather than change the rails.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2018

The Geometry of Culture: Analyzing Meaning through Word Embeddings

We demonstrate the utility of a new methodological tool, neural-network word embedding models, for large-scale text analysis, revealing how these models produce richer insights into cultural associations and categories than possible with prior methods. Word embeddings represent semantic relations between words as geometric relationships between vectors in a high-dimensional space, operationalizing a relational model of meaning consistent with contemporary theories of identity and culture. We show that dimensions induced by word differences (e.g. man - woman, rich - poor, black - white, liberal - conservative) in these vector spaces closely correspond to dimensions of cultural meaning, and the projection of words onto these dimensions reflects widely shared cultural connotations when compared to surveyed responses and labeled historical data. We pilot a method for testing the stability of these associations, then demonstrate applications of word embeddings for macro-cultural investigation with a longitudinal analysis of the coevolution of gender and class associations in the United States over the 20th century and a comparative analysis of historic distinctions between markers of gender and class in the U.S. and Britain. We argue that the success of these high-dimensional models motivates a move towards "high-dimensional theorizing" of meanings, identities and cultural processes.

cs.CL↗