arXiv subjects

Avi M. Mandell

Publications and source records attributed to Avi M. Mandell.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

pyEDITH: the coronagraphic exposure time calculator for the Habitable Worlds Observatory

To support the development of next-generation missions for the search and characterization of habitable planets, high-fidelity tools for astrophysical and instrumental noise simulations are needed. In this paper, we introduce pyEDITH, the Python-based coronagraphic exposure time calculator built for the next recommended NASA flagship mission, the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO), tasked with searching for signs of habitability and life in dozens of nearby exoplanet systems. pyEDITH is designed to simulate wavelength-dependent exposure times and signal-to-noise ratios (S/N) for synthetic HWO direct imaging observations, considering realistic engineering specifications and user-defined target information. Its modular architecture ensures flexibility as mission requirements evolve. pyEDITH enables a streamlined integration with modern astronomical workflows and was designed to be used by the scientific community at all skill levels for understanding the capabilities and limitations of different HWO architectures for exoplanet analyses. The code has been validated against existing exposure time calculators and released open-source on GitHub and Zenodo, as well as made accessible through a Graphical User Interface. The pyEDITH package includes API documentation, tutorial notebooks, and has been used in forthcoming scientific publications.

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arXiv2026

A whole-planet model of the Earth without life for terrestrial exoplanet studies

As the only known habitable (and inhabited) planet in the universe, Earth informs our search for life elsewhere. Future telescopes like the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) will soon look for life on rocky worlds around Sun-like stars, so it is critical that we understand how to distinguish habitable planets from inhabited planets. However, it remains unknown if life is necessary to maintain a habitable planet, or how all of the components of an evolving planet impact habitability over time. As a first step toward answering these questions, we present a coupled interior-atmosphere evolution model of the Earth without life from 50 Myr to 5 Gyr that reproduces 19 key observations of the pre-industrial Earth after 4.5 Gyr within estimated measurement uncertainties. We also produce a reflected light spectrum covering the possible wavelength range of HWO. Our findings suggest that life may not be required to maintain long-term habitable surface conditions. The model presented here is apt for predicting the long-term habitability of Earth-like exoplanets by coupling the interior and surface evolution. By generating realistic reflected light spectra from evolved atmospheric states, this model represents significant progress towards characterizing the observability of whole-planet evolution, which may ultimately provide a robust abiotic baseline for interpreting biosignature observations with HWO.

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arXiv2026

A New Strategy for Using Spectroscopic Phase Curves to Characterize Non-Transiting Planets

We introduce a new time-series analysis strategy for combined-light exoplanet spectroscopic phase curves called the Variable Planetary Infrared Excess (VPIE) method. VPIE can be used to extract information about the planetary flux contribution without the need for the planet to transit or the use of a stellar spectral model. VPIE utilizes a linear combination of a small set of individual spectra to produce an empirical model of the stellar contribution at each time step, thereby normalizing each spectrum and leaving only an imprint of the planet's flux in the residual data. We demonstrate the effectiveness of VPIE through simulated James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations of three known exoplanet orbiting late-type M stars: the warm giant TOI-519 b, the warm sub-Neptune GJ 876 d, and the temperate rocky planet Proxima Centauri b. Our results indicate that though VPIE is less sensitive to very efficient heat redistribution, it can successfully distinguish between various atmospheric circulation regimes (low, moderate, or high heat redistribution) and constrain planetary radii for non-unity day-night temperature ratios. While current performance for cooler targets may be limited by JWST spectroscopic capabilities at longer wavelengths, future VPIE improvements or new instrumentation could enable characterization of potentially habitable planets. VPIE offers a promising new framework for pulling back the veil on the population of non-transiting planets around nearby M-stars that are otherwise inaccessible to current techniques.

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arXiv2026

The climates and thermal emission spectra of prime nearby temperate rocky exoplanet targets

Over the course of the past decade, advances in the radial velocity and transit techniques have enabled the detection of rocky exoplanets in the habitable zones of nearby stars. Future observations with novel methods are required to characterize this sample of planets, especially those that are non-transiting. One proposed method is the Planetary Infrared Excess (PIE) technique, which would enable the characterization of non-transiting planets by measuring the excess infrared flux from the planet relative to the star's spectral energy distribution. In this work, we predict the efficacy of future observations using the PIE technique by potential future observatories such as the MIRECLE mission concept. To do so, we conduct a broad suite of 21 General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations with ExoCAM of seven nearby habitable zone targets for three choices of atmospheric composition with varying partial pressure of CO$_2$. We then construct thermal phase curves and emission spectra by post-processing our ExoCAM GCM simulations with the Planetary Spectrum Generator (PSG). We find that all cases have distinguishable carbon dioxide and water features assuming a 90$^\circ$ orbital inclination. Notably, we predict that CO$_2$ is potentially detectable at 15 $μ\mathrm{m}$ with MIRECLE for at least four nearby known non-transiting rocky planet candidate targets in the habitable zone: Proxima Cenaturi b, GJ 1061 d, GJ 1002 b, and Teegarden's Star c. Our ExoCAM GCMs and PSG post-processing demonstrate the potential to observationally characterize nearby non-transiting rocky planets and better constrain the potential for habitability in our Solar neighborhood.

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arXiv2026

Foundations for Discovery: A Coordinated Fleet Approach to NASA Astrophysics

This white paper presents an analysis of Astro2020 science priorities and NASA's future astrophysics mission architecture, advocating for a coordinated fleet of \$1--2B missions, smaller than typical Flagship observatories, but strategically designed to complement them, i.e. a ``Next Generation Great Observatories" program. The study addresses opportunities in current mission planning, design, and implementation and proposes a strategic approach to maximize scientific return on investment while strengthening partnerships across NASA divisions, other government organizations, universities, and industry.

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arXiv2026

Bayesian Analysis for Remote Biosignature Identification on exoEarths (BARBIE) IV: Analyzing CO2 Detections in the Near-IR to Determine the Long-Wavelength Cut-off for the Habitable Worlds Observatory Coronagraph

We present our analysis of how the detectability of carbon dioxide (CO2) on an Earth-like planet varies with respect to signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), wavelength, and molecular abundance. Using the Bayesian Analysis for Remote Biosignature Identification on exoEarths (BARBIE) methodology, we can inform the optimal long-wavelength cut-off for the future Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) coronagraph. We test 25 evenly-spaced 20% bandpasses between 0.8-2.0μm, and simulate data spanning a range of SNRs and molecular abundance to analyze the relationship between wavelength and detectability for different planetary archetypes. We examine abundance levels from varying Earth epochs and a Venus-like archetype to investigate how detectability would change throughout the evolution of a rocky planet. Here, we present our results on the planetary conditions and technological requirements to strongly detect CO2. In addition, we analyze the degeneracy of CO2 with carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH4), and water (H2O). We determine that any abundance of CO does not achieve strong detections and that CH4 and H2O play a pivotal role in the ability to detect CO2. We conclude that the optimal long-wavelength cut-off for the Habitable Worlds Observatory coronagraph should be 1.68μm.

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arXiv2026

Multi-bandpass Photometry for Exoplanet Atmosphere Reconnaissance (MPEAR) with the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) -- I. Differentiating Earth from Neptunes During Discovery

As the architecture for the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) is being developed, it is crucial to optimize the observing strategies for a survey to detect and characterize Earth-like planets around Sun-like stars. Efficient target identification and characterization will help drive mission requirements that can be matched to the planned observations. Current HWO concepts allow simultaneous multi-bandpass observations with the coronagraph instrument, critical for performing a qualitative planetary reconnaissance to optimize observing time for deriving orbital constraints and prioritize characterization of promising targets. We describe a new algorithm designed to determine the best combination of broadband photometric observations for extracting maximum information from the first visit. It identifies degeneracies in the orbital configurations, fluxes, and noise, and determines optimal secondary photometry bands to reduce these. We demonstrate its application by comparing an Earth seen at quadrature with a cold and a warm Neptune at inclined orbits and varying phases, with comparable flux in the discovery bandpass centered at 500 nm (20\% bandwidth). Using the noise and exposure time calculator that we developed for the HWO coronagraph instrument, we find that the baseline $S/N=7$ (corresponding to 3.2 hours observing time for a planet at 10pc) is only sufficient to marginally differentiate the Earth from a cold Neptune-like planet assuming two parallel bandpasses (550 nm + 850 nm). However, increasing to $S/N=15$ (7 hours observing time) and using three parallel bandpasses (360 nm + 500 nm + 1.11 micron) would differentiate the Earth from either a warm or cold Neptune.

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arXiv2025

A comprehensive spectroscopic reference of the solar system and its application to exoplanet direct imaging

We present a calibrated database of reflectance spectra for the solar system planets (i.e., Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune) and for Titan, spanning from the ultraviolet to the near infrared. We considered data collected over 60 years of planetary observations, employing a broad range of geometries and facilities (spacecraft and ground-based observatories). To correct for differences in observational geometries and data quality, we adopted a two-step calibration process that standardized each spectrum to the planet's geometric albedo values and corrected for planetary heterogeneity and calibration effects. The calibrated datasets were then combined across wavelengths, leading to a reference composite reflectance spectrum for each planet. As a test of this spectral library for exoplanetary research, we simulated direct imaging observations of the Proxima Centauri and HD 219134 systems as solar system analogs, as well as the solar system at a distance of 10 parsecs. We also explored the detection limitations of direct imaging instruments imposed by the inner and outer working angles for Earth and Jupiter-like exoplanets as a function of system distance. Additionally, we used the visible light portion of the results to produce realistic color reconstructions of each planet. Standardizing reflectance spectra in this work improves our baseline for interpreting new reflected light observations of exoplanets through comparative planetology. This spectral library can then serve as a calibrated and validated reference in the modeling and preparation for the characterization of exoplanet atmospheres with future direct imaging missions and for astronomical studies of the solar system.

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arXiv2025

JWST-TST DREAMS: The Nightside Emission and Chemistry of WASP-17b

Theoretical studies have suggested using planetary infrared excess (PIE) to detect and characterize the thermal emission of transiting and non-transiting exoplanets, however the PIE technique requires empirical validation. Here we apply the PIE technique to a combination of JWST NIRSpec G395H transit and eclipse measurements of WASP-17b, a hot Jupiter orbiting an F-type star, obtained consecutively (0.5 phase or 1.8 days apart) as part of the JWST-TST program to perform Deep Reconnaissance of Exoplanet Atmospheres through Multi-instrument Spectroscopy (DREAMS). Using the in-eclipse measured stellar spectrum to circumvent the need for ultra-precise stellar models, we extract the first JWST nightside emission spectrum of WASP-17b using only transit and eclipse data thereby performing a controlled test of the PIE technique. From the WASP-17b nightside spectrum, we measure a nightside equilibrium temperature of $1005 \pm 256$ K and find tentative evidence for nightside SO2 absorption ($\ln B = 1.45$, $2.3σ$). In context with the dayside, the temperature of the nightside is consistent with (1) previous eclipse mapping findings that suggest relatively inefficient day-night heat transport, and (2) a non-zero bond albedo of $0.42^{+0.06}_{-0.10}$. SO2 on the nightside, if confirmed, would represent the first direct evidence for transport-induced chemistry, matching previous model predictions, and opening a new door into the 3D nature of giant exoplanets. Our results suggest that PIE is feasible with JWST/NIRSpec for two epochs separated in time by significantly less than the rotation period of the host star.

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arXiv2025

Paths to Robust Exoplanet Science Yield Margin for the Habitable Worlds Observatory

The Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) will seek to detect and characterize potentially Earth-like planets around other stars. To ensure that the mission achieves the Astro2020 Decadal's recommended goal of 25 exoEarth candidates (EECs), we must take into account the probabilistic nature of exoplanet detections and provide "science margin" to budget for astrophysical uncertainties with a reasonable level of confidence. In this study, we explore the probabilistic distributions of yields to be expected from a blind exoEarth survey conducted by such a mission. We identify and estimate the impact of all major known sources of astrophysical uncertainty on the exoEarth candidate yield. As expected, eta_Earth uncertainties dominate the uncertainty in EEC yield, but we show that sampling uncertainties inherent to a blind survey are another important source of uncertainty that should be budgeted for during mission design. We adopt the Large UV/Optical/IR Surveyor Design B (LUVOIR-B) as a baseline and modify the telescope diameter to estimate the science margin provided by a larger telescope. We then depart from the LUVOIR-B baseline design and identify six possible design changes that, when compiled, provide large gains in exoEarth candidate yield and more than an order of magnitude reduction in exposure times for the highest priority targets. We conclude that a combination of telescope diameter increase and design improvements could provide robust exoplanet science margins for HWO.

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arXiv2025

The transmission spectrum of the potentially rocky planet L 98-59 c

We present observations of the 1.35+/-0.07 Earth-radius planet L 98-59 c, collected using Wide Field Camera 3 on the Hubble Space Telescope. L 98-59 is a nearby (10.6 pc), bright (H=7.4 mag), M3V star that harbors three small, transiting planets. As one of the closest known transiting multi-planet systems, L 98-59 offers one of the best opportunities to probe and compare the atmospheres of rocky planets that formed in the same stellar environment. We measured the transmission spectrum of L 98-59 c and the extracted spectrum showed marginal evidence (2.1σ) for wavelength-dependent transit depth variations that could indicate the presence of an atmosphere. We forward-modeled possible atmospheric compositions of the planet based on the transmission spectrum. Although L 98-59 was previously thought to be a fairly quiet star, we have seen evidence for stellar activity, and therefore we assessed a scenario where the source of the signal originates with inhomogeneities on stellar surface. We also see a correlation between transits of L 98-59 c and L 98-59 b collected 12.5 hours apart, which is suggestive (but at <2σ confidence) of a contaminating component from the star impacting the exoplanet spectrum. While intriguing, our results are inconclusive and additional data is needed to verify any atmospheric signal. Fortunately, additional data has been collected from both HST and JWST. Should this result be confirmed with additional data, L 98-59 c would be the first planet smaller than two Earth-radii with a detected atmosphere.

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arXiv2024

Bayesian Analysis for Remote Biosignature Identification on exoEarths (BARBIE) \RNum{3}: Introducing the KEN

We deploy a newly-generated set of geometric albedo spectral grids to examine the detectability of methane (CH4) in the reflected-light spectrum of an Earth-like exoplanet at visible and near-infrared wavelengths with a future exoplanet imaging mission. By quantifying the detectability as a function of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and molecular abundance, we can constrain the best methods of detection with the high-contrast space-based coronagraphy slated for the next generation telescopes such as the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO). We used 25 bandpasses between 0.8 and 1.5 microns. The abundances range from a modern-Earth level to an Archean-Earth level, driven by abundances found in available literature. We constrain the optimal 20%, 30%, and 40% bandpasses based on the effective SNR of the data, and investigate the impact of spectral confusion between CH4 and H2O on the detectability of each one. We find that a modern-Earth level of CH4 is not detectable, while an Archean Earth level of CH4 would be detectable at all SNRs and bandpass widths. Crucially, we find that CH4 detectability is inversely correlated with H2o abundance, with required SNR increasing as H2O abundance increases, while H2O detectability depends on CH4 abundance and selected observational wavelength, implying that science requirements for the characterization of Earth-like planet atmospheres in the VIS/NIR should consider the abundances of both species in tandem.

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arXiv2024

The VSPEC Collection: A suite of utilities to model spectroscopic phase curves of 3D exoplanet atmospheres in the presence of stellar variability

We present the Variable Star PhasE Curve (VSPEC) Collection, a set of Python packages for simulating combined-light spectroscopic observations of 3-dimensional exoplanet atmospheres in the presence of stellar variability and inhomogeneity. VSPEC uses the Planetary Spectrum Generator's Global Emission Spectra (PSG/GlobES) application along with a custom-built multi-component time-variable stellar model based on a user-defined grid of stellar photosphere models to produce spectroscopic light curves of the planet-host system. VSPEC can be a useful tool for modeling observations of exoplanets in transiting geometries (primary transit, secondary eclipse) as well as orbital phase curve measurements, and is built in a modular and flexible configuration for easy adaptability to new stellar and planetary model inputs. We additionally present a set of codes developed alongside the core VSPEC modules, including the stellar surface model generator vspec-vsm, the stellar spectral grid interpolation code GridPolator, and a Python interface for PSG, libpypsg.

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arXiv2024

Optimized Bandpasses for the Habitable Worlds Observatory's ExoEarth Survey

A primary scientific goal of the future Habitable Worlds Observatory will be the direct detection and characterization of Earth-like planets. Estimates of the exoplanet yields for this concept will help guide mission design through detailed trade studies. It is therefore critical that yield estimation codes optimally adapt observations to the mission's performance parameters to ensure accurate trade studies. To aid in this, we implement wavelength optimization in yield calculations for the first time, allowing the yield code to determine the ideal detection and characterization bandpasses. We use this new capability to confirm the observational wavelength assumptions made for the LUVOIR-B study, namely that the optimum detection wavelength is 500 nm for the majority of targets and the optimum wavelength to detect water is near 1000 nm, given LUVOIR-B's assumed instrument performance parameters. We show that including the wavelength dependent albedo of an Earth twin as a prior provides no significant benefit to the yields of exoEarth candidates and caution against tuning observations to modern Earth twins. We also show that coronagraphs whose inner working angles are similar to step functions may benefit from wavelength optimization and demonstrate how wavelength-dependent instrument performance can impact the optimum wavelengths for detection and characterization. The optimization methods we implement automate wavelength selection and remove uncertainties regarding these choices, helping to adapt the observations to the instrument's performance parameters.

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arXiv2023

Grid-Based Atmospheric Retrievals for Reflected-Light Spectra of Exoplanets using PSGnest

Techniques to retrieve the atmospheric properties of exoplanets via direct observation of their reflected light have often been limited in scope due to computational constraints imposed by the forward-model calculations. We have developed a new set of techniques which significantly decreases the time required to perform a retrieval while maintaining accurate results. We constructed a grid of 1.4 million pre-computed geometric albedo spectra valued at discrete sets of parameter points. Spectra from this grid are used to produce models for a fast and efficient nested sampling routine called PSGnest. Beyond the upfront time to construct a spectral grid, the amount of time to complete a full retrieval using PSGnest is on the order of seconds to minutes using a personal computer. An extensive evaluation of the error induced from interpolating intermediate spectra from the grid indicates that this bias is insignificant compared to other retrieval error sources, with an average coefficient of determination between interpolated and true spectra of 0.998. We apply these new retrieval techniques to help constrain the optimal bandpass centers for retrieving various atmospheric and bulk parameters from a LuvEx-type mission observing several planetary archetypes. We show that spectral observations made using a 20\% bandpass centered at 0.73 microns can be used alongside our new techniques to make detections of $H_2O$ and $O_2$ without the need to increase observing time beyond what is necessary for a signal-to-noise ratio of 10. The methods introduced here will enable robust studies of the capabilities of future observatories to characterize exoplanets.

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arXiv2023

No thick carbon dioxide atmosphere on the rocky exoplanet TRAPPIST-1 c

Seven rocky planets orbit the nearby dwarf star TRAPPIST-1, providing a unique opportunity to search for atmospheres on small planets outside the Solar System (Gillon et al., 2017). Thanks to the recent launch of JWST, possible atmospheric constituents such as carbon dioxide (CO2) are now detectable (Morley et al., 2017, Lincowski et al., 2018}. Recent JWST observations of the innermost planet TRAPPIST-1 b showed that it is most probably a bare rock without any CO2 in its atmosphere (Greene et al., 2023). Here we report the detection of thermal emission from the dayside of TRAPPIST-1 c with the Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) on JWST at 15 micron. We measure a planet-to-star flux ratio of fp/fs = 421 +/- 94 parts per million (ppm) which corresponds to an inferred dayside brightness temperature of 380 +/- 31 K. This high dayside temperature disfavours a thick, CO2-rich atmosphere on the planet. The data rule out cloud-free O2/CO2 mixtures with surface pressures ranging from 10 bar (with 10 ppm CO2) to 0.1 bar (pure CO2). A Venus-analogue atmosphere with sulfuric acid clouds is also disfavoured at 2.6 sigma confidence. Thinner atmospheres or bare-rock surfaces are consistent with our measured planet-to-star flux ratio. The absence of a thick, CO2-rich atmosphere on TRAPPIST-1 c suggests a relatively volatile-poor formation history, with less than 9.5 +7.5 -2.3 Earth oceans of water. If all planets in the system formed in the same way, this would indicate a limited reservoir of volatiles for the potentially habitable planets in the system.

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arXiv2023

Investigating Possible Binarity for GJ 229B

GJ 229B, the first type-T brown dwarf to be discovered, has presented a tension between comparisons with evolutionary models and the larger-than-expected mass and radius values derived from spectroscopic and astrometric observations. We examine the hypothesis that GJ 229B is actually a binary sub-stellar object by using two grid-based fits using evolutionary models to explore the range of mass ratios of the possible binary components. We find that the best-fit component values are most consistent with a roughly 2:1 binary mass ratio and an age range of 2-6 Gyr. The observed temperatures, masses, and apparent radii match expected values from evolutionary models for a binary much better than a single-object model, but more detailed observations and modeling are needed to definitively confirm the binary hypothesis.

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arXiv2022

The Exoplanet Modeling and Analysis Center at NASA Goddard

The Exoplanet Modeling and Analysis Center (EMAC) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center is a web-based catalog, repository, and integration platform for modeling and analysis resources focused on the study of exoplanet characteristics and environments. EMAC hosts user-submitted resources ranging in category from planetary interior models to data visualization tools. Other features of EMAC include integrated web tools developed by the EMAC team in collaboration with the tools' original author(s) and video demonstrations of a growing number of hosted tools. EMAC aims to be a comprehensive repository for researchers to access a variety of exoplanet resources that can assist them in their work, and currently hosts a growing number of code bases, models, and tools. EMAC is a key project of the NASA GSFC Sellers Exoplanet Environments Collaboration (SEEC) and can be accessed at https://emac.gsfc.nasa.gov.

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