arXiv subjects

Avi Shporer

Publications and source records attributed to Avi Shporer.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

A transiting multi-planet system in the 61 million year old association Theia 116

Observing and characterizing young planetary systems can aid in unveiling the evolutionary mechanisms that sculpt the mature exoplanet population. As an all-sky survey, NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) has expanded the known young planet population as it has observed young comoving stellar populations. This work presents the discovery of a multiplanet system orbiting the 61 Myr old G4V star TIC 434398831 (M = 0.99 Msun, R = 0.91 Rsun, Teff = 5638 K, Tmag = 11.31) located in the Theia 116 comoving population. We estimate the population's age based on rotation periods measured from the TESS light curves, isochrone fitting, and measurements of lithium equivalent widths in the spectra of Theia 116 members. The TESS FFI light curves reveal a mini-Neptune (Rb = 3.51 Rearth, Pb = 3.69 days) and super-Neptune (Rc = 5.63 Rearth, Pc = 6.21 days) with an orbital period ratio slightly larger than 5:3. Follow-up observations from CHEOPS and ground-based telescopes confirm the transits of TIC 434398831 b and c, and constrain their transit times. We explore the potential mass-loss histories of the two planets in order to probe possible initial conditions of the planets immediately after formation.

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arXiv2025

Multi-band, Multi-epoch Photometry of the Spot-crossing System TOI-3884: Refined System Geometry and Spot Properties

Spot-crossing transits offer a unique opportunity to probe spot properties such as temperature, size, and surface distribution. TOI-3884 is a rare system in which spot-crossing features are persistently observed during every transit. This is due to its unusual configuration: a nearly poler orbit super-Neptune transits a pole-on mid-M dwarf, repeatedly crossing a polar spot. However, previous studies have reported discrepant values in key system parameters, such as stellar inclination and obliquity. To address this, we conducted multi-band, multi-epoch transit observations of TOI-3884b using the MuSCAT instrument series, along with photometric monitoring with the LCO 1m telescopes/Sinistro. We detected time-dependent variations in the spot-crossing signals, indicating that the spot is not exactly on the pole. From the monitoring data, we measured a stellar rotation period of $11.043~_{-0.053}^{+0.054}$ days with a modulation amplitude of $\sim$5% in the r-band, consistent with the time variability in the spot-crossing features. Our analysis reconciles previous discrepancies and improves the constraints on the parameters of the system geometry ($i_\star = 139.9~^{+1.2}_{-2.0}$ deg and $λ=41.0~^{+3.7}_{-9.0}$ deg) and those of the spot properties (spot radius of $0.425~_{-0.011}^{+0.018}~R_\star$ and spot-photosphere temperature difference of $200~_{-9}^{+11}$ K). These results provide a critical context for interpreting upcoming transmission spectroscopy of TOI-3884b, as well as yielding new insights into the magnetic activity and spin-orbit geometry of M dwarfs.

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arXiv2025

The Eccentricity Distribution of Warm Sub-Saturns in TESS

We present the eccentricity distribution of warm sub-Saturns (4-8 Re, 8-200 day periods) as derived from an analysis of transit light curves from NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission. We use the "photoeccentric" effect to constrain the eccentricities of 76 planets, comprising 60 and 16 from single- and multi-transiting systems, respectively. We employ Hierarchical Bayesian Modelling to infer the eccentricity distribution of the population, testing both a Beta and Mixture Beta distribution. We identify a few highly eccentric (e ~ 0.7-0.8) warm sub-Saturns with eccentricities that appear too high to be explained by disk migration or planet-planet scattering alone, suggesting high-eccentricity migration may play a role in their formation. The majority of the population have a mean eccentricity of e = 0.103+0.047-0.045, consistent with both planet-disk and planet-planet interactions. Notably, we find that the highly eccentric sub-Saturns occur in single-transiting systems. This study presents the first evidence at the population level that the eccentricities of sub-Saturns may be sculpted by dynamical processes.

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arXiv2025

TOI-6478 b: a cold under-dense Neptune transiting a fully convective M dwarf from the thick disc

Growing numbers of exoplanet detections continue to reveal the diverse nature of planetary systems. Planet formation around late-type M dwarfs is of particular interest. These systems provide practical laboratories to measure exoplanet occurrence rates for M dwarfs, thus testing how the outcomes of planet formation scale with host mass, and how they compare to Sun-like stars. Here, we report the discovery of TOI-6478b, a cold ($T_{\text{eq}}=204\,$K) Neptune-like planet orbiting an M5 star ($R_\star=0.234\pm0.012\,\text{R}_\odot$, $M_\star=0.230\pm0.007\,\text{M}_\odot$, $T_{\text{eff}}=3230\pm75\,$K) which is a member of the Milky Way's thick disc. We measure a planet radius of $R_b=4.6\pm0.24\,\text{R}_\oplus$ on a $P_b=34.005019\pm0.000025\,$d orbit. Using radial velocities, we calculate an upper mass limit of $M_b\leq9.9\,\text{M}_\oplus$ ($M_b\leq0.6\,\text{M}_{\text{Nep}})$, with $3\,σ$ confidence. TOI-6478b is a milestone planet in the study of cold, Neptune-like worlds. Thanks to its large atmospheric scale height, it is amenable to atmospheric characterisation with facilities such as JWST, and will provide an excellent probe of atmospheric chemistry in this cold regime. It is one of very few transiting exoplanets that orbit beyond their system's ice-line whose atmospheric chemical composition can be measured. Based on our current understanding of this planet, we estimate TOI-6478b's spectroscopic features (in transmission) can be $\sim2.5\times$ as high as the widely studied planet K2-18b.

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arXiv2025

TOI-2005b: An Eccentric Warm Jupiter in Spin-Orbit Alignment

We report the discovery and characterization of TOI-2005b, a warm Jupiter on an eccentric (e~0.59), 17.3-day orbit around a V_mag = 9.867 rapidly rotating F-star. The object was detected as a candidate by TESS and the planetary nature of TOI-2005b was then confirmed via a series of ground-based photometric, spectroscopic, and diffraction-limited imaging observations. The planet was found to reside in a low sky-projected stellar obliquity orbit (lambda = 4.8 degrees) via a transit spectroscopic observation using the Magellan MIKE spectrograph.TOI-2005b is one of a few planets known to have a low-obliquity, high-eccentricity orbit, which may be the result of high-eccentricity coplanar migration. The planet has a periastron equilibrium temperature of ~ 2100 K, similar to some highly irradiated hot Jupiters where atomic metal species have been detected in transmission spectroscopy, and varies by almost 1000 K during its orbit. Future observations of the atmosphere of TOI-2005b can inform us about its radiative timescales thanks to the rapid heating and cooling of the planet.

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arXiv2025

A Disintegrating Rocky Planet with Prominent Comet-like Tails Around a Bright Star

We report the discovery of BD+05$\,$4868$\,$Ab, a transiting exoplanet orbiting a bright ($V=10.16$) K-dwarf (TIC 466376085) with a period of 1.27 days. Observations from NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) reveal variable transit depths and asymmetric transit profiles that are characteristic of comet-like tails formed by dusty effluents emanating from a disintegrating planet. Unique to BD+05$\,$4868$\,$Ab is the presence of prominent dust tails in both the trailing and leading directions that contribute to the extinction of starlight from the host star. By fitting the observed transit profile and analytically modeling the drift of dust grains within both dust tails, we infer large grain sizes ($\sim1-10\,μ$m) and a mass loss rate of $10\,M_{\rm \oplus}\,$Gyr$^{-1}$, suggestive of a lunar-mass object with a disintegration timescale of only several Myr. The host star is probably older than the Sun and is accompanied by an M-dwarf companion at a projected physical separation of 130 AU. The brightness of the host star, combined with the planet's relatively deep transits ($0.8-2.0\%$), presents BD+05$\,$4868$\,$Ab as a prime target for compositional studies of rocky exoplanets and investigations into the nature of catastrophically evaporating planets.

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arXiv2025

Constraining atmospheric composition from the outflow: helium observations reveal the fundamental properties of two planets straddling the radius gap

TOI-836 is a ~2-3 Gyr K dwarf with an inner super Earth ($R=1.7 R_\oplus$, $P=3.8$ d) and an outer mini Neptune ($R=2.6 R_\oplus$, $P=8.6$ d). JWST/NIRSpec 2.8--5.2 $μ$m transmission spectra are flat for both planets. We present Keck/NIRSPEC observations of escaping helium for super-Earth b, which shows no excess absorption in the 1083 nm triplet to deep limits (<0.2%), and mini-Neptune c, which shows strong (0.7%) excess absorption in both visits. These results demonstrate that planet c retains at least some primordial atmosphere, while planet b is consistent with having lost its entire primordial envelope. Self-consistent 1D radiative-hydrodynamic models of planet c reveal that the helium excess absorption signal is highly sensitive to metallicity: its equivalent width collapses by a factor of 13 as metallicity increases from 10x to 100x solar, and by a further factor of 12 as it increases to 200x solar. The observed equivalent width is 88% the model prediction for 100x metallicity, suggesting an atmospheric metallicity similar to K2-18b and TOI-270d, the first two mini-Neptunes with detected absorption features in JWST transmission spectra. We highlight the helium triplet as a potentially powerful probe of atmospheric composition, with complementary strengths and weaknesses to atmospheric retrievals. The main strength is its extreme sensitivity to metallicity in the scientifically significant range of 10--200x solar, and the main weakness is the enormous model uncertainties in outflow suppression and confinement mechanisms, such as magnetic fields and stellar winds, which can suppress the signal by at least a factor of ~several.

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arXiv2025

Diverse Inference and Verification for Advanced Reasoning

Reasoning LLMs such as OpenAI o1, o3 and DeepSeek R1 have made significant progress in mathematics and coding, yet find challenging advanced tasks such as International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) combinatorics problems, Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) puzzles, and Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) questions. We use a diverse inference approach that combines multiple models and methods at test time. We find that verifying mathematics and code problems, and rejection sampling on other problems is simple and effective. We automatically verify correctness of solutions to IMO problems by Lean, and ARC puzzles by code, and find that best-of-N effectively answers HLE questions. Our approach increases answer accuracy on IMO combinatorics problems from 33.3% to 77.8%, accuracy on HLE questions from 8% to 37%, and solves 80% of ARC puzzles that 948 humans could not and 26.5% of ARC puzzles that o3 high compute does not. Test-time simulations, reinforcement learning, and meta-learning with inference feedback improve generalization by adapting agent graph representations and varying prompts, code, and datasets. Our approach is reliable, robust, and scalable, and in the spirit of reproducible research, we will make it publicly available upon publication.

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arXiv2024

Two Earth-size Planets and an Earth-size Candidate Transiting the Nearby Star HD 101581

We report the validation of multiple planets transiting the nearby ($d = 12.8$ pc) K5V dwarf HD 101581 (GJ 435, TOI-6276, TIC 397362481). The system consists of at least two Earth-size planets whose orbits are near a mutual 4:3 mean-motion resonance, HD 101581 b ($R_{p} = 0.956_{-0.061}^{+0.063}~R_{\oplus}$, $P = 4.47$ days) and HD 101581 c ($R_{p} = 0.990_{-0.070}^{+0.070}~R_{\oplus}$, $P = 6.21$ days). Both planets were discovered in Sectors 63 and 64 TESS observations and statistically validated with supporting ground-based follow-up. We also identify a signal that probably originates from a third transiting planet, TOI-6276.03 ($R_{p} = 0.982_{-0.098}^{+0.114}~R_{\oplus}$, $P = 7.87$ days). These planets are remarkably uniform in size and their orbits are evenly spaced, representing a prime example of the "peas-in-a-pod" architecture seen in other compact multi-planet systems. At $V = 7.77$, HD 101581 is the brightest star known to host multiple transiting planets smaller than $1.5~R_{\oplus}$. HD 101581 is a promising system for atmospheric characterization and comparative planetology of small planets.

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arXiv2024

Discovery and Characterization of an Eccentric, Warm Saturn Transiting the Solar Analog TOI-4994

We present the detection and characterization of TOI-4994b (TIC 277128619b), a warm Saturn-sized planet discovered by the NASA Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). TOI-4994b transits a G-type star (V = 12.6 mag) with a mass, radius, and effective temperature of $M_{\star} =1.005^{+0.064}_{-0.061} M_{\odot}$, $R_{\star} = 1.055^{+0.040}_{-0.037} R_{\odot}$, and $T_{\rm eff} = 5640 \pm 110$ K. We obtained follow-up ground-based photometry from the Las Cumbres Observatory (LCO) and the Antarctic Search for Transiting ExoPlanets (ASTEP) telescopes, and we confirmed the planetary nature of TOI-4994b with multiple radial velocity observations from the PFS, CHIRON, HARPS, FEROS, and CORALIE instruments. From a global fit to the photometry and radial velocities, we determine that TOI-4994b is in a 21.5-day, eccentric orbit ($e = 0.32 \pm 0.04$) and has a mass of $M_{P}= 0.280^{+0.037}_{-0.034} M_{J}$, a radius of $R_{P}= 0.762^{+0.030}_{-0.027}R_{J}$, and a Saturn-like bulk density of $ρ_{p} = 0.78^{+0.16}_{-0.14}$ $\rm g/cm^3$. We find that TOI-4994 is a potentially viable candidate for follow-up stellar obliquity measurements. TOI-4994b joins the small sample of warm Saturn analogs and thus sheds light on our understanding of these rare and unique worlds.

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arXiv2024

A giant planet transiting a 3-Myr protostar with a misaligned disk

Astronomers have found more than a dozen planets transiting 10-40 million year old stars, but even younger transiting planets have remained elusive. A possible reason for the lack of such discoveries is that newly formed planets are not yet in a configuration that would be recognized as a transiting planet or cannot exhibit transits because our view is blocked by a protoplanetary disk. However, we now know that many outer disks are warped; provided the inner disk is depleted, transiting planets may thus be visible. Here we report the observations of the transiting planet IRAS 04125+2902 b orbiting a 3 Myr, 0.7 M$_\odot$, pre-main sequence star in the Taurus Molecular Cloud. IRAS 04125+2902 hosts a nearly face-on (i $\sim$ 30$^\circ$) transitional disk and a wide binary companion. The planet has a period of 8.83 days, a radius of 10.9 R$_\oplus$ (0.97R$_J$), and a 95%-confidence upper limit on its mass of 90M$_\oplus$ (0.3M$_J$) from radial velocity measurements, making it a possible precursor of the super-Earths and sub-Neptunes that are commonly found around main-sequence stars. The rotational broadening of the star and the orbit of the wide (4", 635 AU) companion are both consistent with edge-on orientations. Thus, all components of the system appear to be aligned except the outer disk; the origin of this misalignment is unclear. Given the rare set of circumstances required to detect a transiting planet at ages when the disk is still present, IRAS 04125+2902 b likely provides a unique window into sub-Neptunes immediately following formation.

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arXiv2024

HD 222237 b: a long period super-Jupiter around a nearby star revealed by radial-velocity and Hipparcos-Gaia astrometry

Giant planets on long period orbits around the nearest stars are among the easiest to directly image. Unfortunately these planets are difficult to fully constrain by indirect methods, e.g., transit and radial velocity (RV). In this study, we present the discovery of a super-Jupiter, HD 222237 b, orbiting a star located $11.445\pm0.002$ pc away. By combining RV data, Hipparcos and multi-epoch Gaia astrometry, we estimate the planetary mass to be ${5.19}_{-0.58}^{+0.58}\,M_{\rm Jup}$, with an eccentricity of ${0.56}_{-0.03}^{+0.03}$ and a period of ${40.8}_{-4.5}^{+5.8}$ yr, making HD 222237 b a promising target for imaging using the Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) of JWST. A comparative analysis suggests that our method can break the inclination degeneracy and thus differentiate between prograde and retrograde orbits of a companion. We further find that the inferred contrast ratio between the planet and the host star in the F1550C filter ($15.50\,μ\rm m$) is approximately $1.9\times10^{-4}$, which is comparable with the measured limit of the MIRI coronagraphs. The relatively low metallicity of the host star ($\rm-0.32\,dex$) combined with the unique orbital architecture of this system presents an excellent opportunity to probe the planet-metallicity correlation and the formation scenarios of giant planets.

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arXiv2024

Single-Star Warm-Jupiter Systems Tend to Be Aligned, Even Around Hot Stellar Hosts: No $T_{\rm eff}-λ$ Dependency

The stellar obliquity distribution of warm-Jupiter systems is crucial for constraining the dynamical history of Jovian exoplanets, as the warm Jupiters' tidal detachment likely preserves their primordial obliquity. However, the sample size of warm-Jupiter systems with measured stellar obliquities has historically been limited compared to that of hot Jupiters, particularly in hot-star systems. In this work, we present newly obtained sky-projected stellar obliquity measurements for warm-Jupiter systems, TOI-559, TOI-2025, TOI-2031, TOI-2485, TOI-2524, and TOI-3972, derived from the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect, and show that all six systems display alignment with a median measurement uncertainty of 13 degrees. Combining these new measurements with the set of previously reported stellar obliquity measurements, our analysis reveals that single-star warm-Jupiter systems tend to be aligned, even around hot stellar hosts. This alignment exhibits a 3.4-$σ$ deviation from the $T_{\rm eff}-λ$ dependency observed in hot-Jupiter systems, where planets around cool stars tend to be aligned, while those orbiting hot stars show considerable misalignment. The current distribution of spin-orbit measurements for Jovian exoplanets indicates that misalignments are neither universal nor primordial phenomena affecting all types of planets. The absence of misalignments in single-star warm-Jupiter systems further implies that many hot Jupiters, by contrast, have experienced a dynamically violent history.

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arXiv2024

AI-Driven Review Systems: Evaluating LLMs in Scalable and Bias-Aware Academic Reviews

Automatic reviewing helps handle a large volume of papers, provides early feedback and quality control, reduces bias, and allows the analysis of trends. We evaluate the alignment of automatic paper reviews with human reviews using an arena of human preferences by pairwise comparisons. Gathering human preference may be time-consuming; therefore, we also use an LLM to automatically evaluate reviews to increase sample efficiency while reducing bias. In addition to evaluating human and LLM preferences among LLM reviews, we fine-tune an LLM to predict human preferences, predicting which reviews humans will prefer in a head-to-head battle between LLMs. We artificially introduce errors into papers and analyze the LLM's responses to identify limitations, use adaptive review questions, meta prompting, role-playing, integrate visual and textual analysis, use venue-specific reviewing materials, and predict human preferences, improving upon the limitations of the traditional review processes. We make the reviews of publicly available arXiv and open-access Nature journal papers available online, along with a free service which helps authors review and revise their research papers and improve their quality. This work develops proof-of-concept LLM reviewing systems that quickly deliver consistent, high-quality reviews and evaluate their quality. We mitigate the risks of misuse, inflated review scores, overconfident ratings, and skewed score distributions by augmenting the LLM with multiple documents, including the review form, reviewer guide, code of ethics and conduct, area chair guidelines, and previous year statistics, by finding which errors and shortcomings of the paper may be detected by automated reviews, and evaluating pairwise reviewer preferences. This work identifies and addresses the limitations of using LLMs as reviewers and evaluators and enhances the quality of the reviewing process.

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arXiv2024

Mass determination of two Jupiter-sized planets orbiting slightly evolved stars: TOI-2420 b and TOI-2485 b

Hot and warm Jupiters might have undergone the same formation and evolution path, but the two populations exhibit different distributions of orbital parameters, challenging our understanding on their actual origin. The present work, which is the results of our warm Jupiters survey carried out with the CHIRON spectrograph within the KESPRINT collaboration, aims to address this challenge by studying two planets that could help bridge the gap between the two populations. We report the confirmation and mass determination of a hot Jupiter (orbital period shorter than 10 days), TOI-2420\,b, and a warm Jupiter, TOI-2485\,b. We performed a joint analysis using a wide variety of spectral and photometric data in order to characterize these planetary systems. We found that TOI-2420\,b has an orbital period of P$_{\rm b}$=5.8 days, a mass of M$_{\rm b}$=0.9 M$_{\rm J}$ and a radius of R$_{\rm b}$=1.3 R$_{\rm J}$, with a planetary density of 0.477 \gc; while TOI-2485\,b has an orbital period of P$_{\rm b}$=11.2 days, a mass of M$_{\rm b}$=2.4 M$_{\rm J}$ and a radius of R$_{\rm b}$=1.1 R$_{\rm J}$ with density 2.36 \gc. With current parameters, the migration history for TOI-2420\,b and TOI-2485\,b is unclear: the high-eccentricity migration scenarios cannot be ruled out, and TOI-2485\,b's characteristics may rather support this scenario.

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arXiv2024

An Earth-sized Planet on the Verge of Tidal Disruption

TOI-6255~b (GJ 4256) is an Earth-sized planet (1.079$\pm0.065$ $R_\oplus$) with an orbital period of only 5.7 hours. With the newly commissioned Keck Planet Finder (KPF) and CARMENES spectrographs, we determined the planet's mass to be 1.44$\pm$0.14 $M_{\oplus}$. The planet is just outside the Roche limit, with $P_{\rm orb}/P_{\rm Roche}$ = 1.13 $\pm0.10$. The strong tidal force likely deforms the planet into a triaxial ellipsoid with a long axis that is $\sim$10\% longer than the short axis. Assuming a reduced stellar tidal quality factor $Q_\star^\prime \approx10^7$, we predict that tidal orbital decay will cause TOI-6255 to reach the Roche limit in roughly 400 Myr. Such tidal disruptions may produce the possible signatures of planet engulfment that have been on stars with anomalously high refractory elemental abundances compared to its conatal binary companion. TOI-6255 b is also a favorable target for searching for star-planet magnetic interactions, which might cause interior melting and hasten orbital decay. TOI-6255 b is a top target (Emission Spectroscopy Metric of about 24) for phase curve observations with the James Webb Space Telescope.

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arXiv2024

GJ 238 b: A 0.57 Earth Radius Planet Orbiting an M2.5 Dwarf Star at 15.2 pc

We report the discovery of the transiting planet GJ 238 b, with a radius of $0.566\pm0.014$ R$_{\oplus}$ ($1.064\pm0.026$ times the radius of Mars) and an orbital period of 1.74 day. The transit signal was detected by the TESS mission and designated TOI-486.01. The star's position close to the Southern ecliptic pole allows for almost continuous observations by TESS when it is observing the Southern sky. The host star is an M2.5 dwarf with $V=11.57\pm0.02$ mag, $K=7.030\pm0.023$ mag, a distance of $15.2156\pm0.0030$ pc, a mass of $0.4193_{-0.0098}^{+0.0095}$ M$_{\odot}$, a radius of $0.4314_{-0.0071}^{+0.0075}$ R$_{\odot}$, and an effective temperature of $3{,}485\pm140$ K. We validate the planet candidate by ruling out or rendering highly unlikely each of the false positive scenarios, based on archival data and ground-based follow-up observations. Validation was facilitated by the host star's small size and high proper motion, of $892.633\pm0.025$ mas yr$^{-1}$.

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arXiv2024

TOI-1408: Discovery and Photodynamical Modeling of a Small Inner Companion to a Hot Jupiter Revealed by TTVs

We report the discovery and characterization of a small planet, TOI-1408 c, on a 2.2-day orbit located interior to a previously known hot Jupiter, TOI-1408 b ($P=4.42$ d, $M=1.86\pm0.02\,M_\mathrm{Jup}$, $R=2.4\pm0.5\,R_\mathrm{Jup}$) that exhibits grazing transits. The two planets are near 2:1 period commensurability, resulting in significant transit timing variations (TTVs) for both planets and transit duration variations (TDVs) for the inner planet. The TTV amplitude for TOI-1408 c is 15% of the planet's orbital period, marking the largest TTV amplitude relative to the orbital period measured to date. Photodynamical modeling of ground-based radial velocity (RV) observations and transit light curves obtained with the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) and ground-based facilities leads to an inner planet radius of $2.22\pm0.06\,R_\oplus$ and mass of $7.6\pm0.2\,M_\oplus$ that locates the planet into the Sub-Neptune regime. The proximity to the 2:1 period commensurability leads to the libration of the resonant argument of the inner planet. The RV measurements support the existence of a third body with an orbital period of several thousand days. This discovery places the system among the rare systems featuring a hot Jupiter accompanied by an inner low-mass planet.

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