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Axel Friedrich Wolter

Publications and source records attributed to Axel Friedrich Wolter.

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A Two-Timescale Primal-Dual Framework for Reinforcement Learning via Online Dual Variable Guidance

We study reinforcement learning by combining recent advances in regularized linear programming formulations with the classical theory of stochastic approximation. Motivated by the challenge of designing algorithms that leverage off-policy data while maintaining on-policy exploration, we propose PGDA-RL, a novel primal-dual Projected Gradient Descent-Ascent algorithm for solving regularized Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). PGDA-RL integrates experience replay-based gradient estimation with a two-timescale decomposition of the underlying nested optimization problem. The algorithm operates asynchronously, interacts with the environment through a single trajectory of correlated data, and updates its policy online in response to the dual variable associated with the occupancy measure of the underlying MDP. We prove that PGDA-RL converges almost surely to the optimal value function and policy of the regularized MDP. Our convergence analysis relies on tools from stochastic approximation theory and holds under weaker assumptions than those required by existing primal-dual RL approaches, notably removing the need for a simulator or a fixed behavioral policy. Under a strengthened ergodicity assumption on the underlying Markov chain, we establish a last-iterate finite-time guarantee with $\tilde{O} (k^{-2/3})$ mean-square convergence, aligning with the best-known rates for two-timescale stochastic approximation methods under Markovian sampling and biased gradient estimates.

math.OC

Efficient Sampling for Realized Variance Estimation in Time-Changed Diffusion Models

This paper analyzes the benefits of sampling intraday returns in intrinsic time for the realized variance (RV) estimator. We theoretically show in finite samples that depending on the permitted sampling information, the RV estimator is most efficient under either hitting time sampling that samples whenever the price changes by a pre-determined threshold, or under the new concept of realized business time that samples according to a combination of observed trades and estimated tick variance. The analysis builds on the assumption that asset prices follow a diffusion that is time-changed with a jump process that separately models the transaction times. This provides a flexible model that allows for leverage specifications and Hawkes-type jump processes and separately captures the empirically varying trading intensity and tick variance processes, which are particularly relevant for disentangling the driving forces of the sampling schemes. Extensive simulations confirm our theoretical results and show that for low levels of noise, hitting time sampling remains superior while for increasing noise levels, realized business time becomes the empirically most efficient sampling scheme. An application to stock data provides empirical evidence for the benefits of using these intrinsic sampling schemes to construct more efficient RV estimators as well as for an improved forecast performance.

econ.EM