arXiv subjects

Ayaz Zeynalov

Publications and source records attributed to Ayaz Zeynalov.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2022

Macroeconomic performance of oil price shocks in Russia

Oil price fluctuations severely impact the economies of both oil-exporting and importing countries. High oil prices can benefit oil exporters by increasing foreign currency inflow; however, an economy can suffer from a weakening of the manufacturing sectors and experience a significant downtrend in the country's price competitiveness as the domestic currency appreciates. We investigate the oil price fluctuations from Q1, 2004 to Q3, 2021 and their impact on the Russian macroeconomic indicators, particularly industrial production, exchange rate, inflation and interest rates. We assess whether and how much the Russian macroeconomic variables have been responsive to the oil price fluctuations in recent years. The outcomes from VAR model confirm that the monetary channel is more responsive to oil price shocks than the fiscal one. Regarding fiscal channel of the oil price impact, industrial production is strongly pro-cyclical to oil price shocks. As for the monetary channel, higher oil price volatility is pressuring the Russian ruble, inflation and interest rates are substantially counter-cyclical to oil price shocks.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2022

Regional Disparities and Economic Growth in Ukraine

This research is devoted to assessing regional economic disparities in Ukraine, where regional economic inequality is a crucial issue the country faces in its medium and long-term development, recently, even in the short term. We analyze the determinants of regional economic growth, mainly industrial and agricultural productions, population, human capital, fertility, migration, and regional government expenditures. Using panel data estimations from 2004 to 2020 for 27 regions of Ukraine, our results show that the gaps between regions in Ukraine have widened last two decades. Natural resource distribution, agricultural and industrial productions, government spending, and migration can explain the disparities. We show that regional government spending is highly concentrated in Kyiv, and the potential of the other regions, especially the Western ones, needs to be used sufficiently. Moreover, despite its historical and economic opportunity, the East region performed little development during the last two decades. The inefficient and inconsistent regional policies played a crucial role in these disparities.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2022

Russian Agricultural Industry under Sanction Wars

The motivation for focusing on economic sanctions is the mixed evidence of their effectiveness. We assess the role of sanctions on the Russian international trade flow of agricultural products after 2014. We use a differences-in-differences model of trade flows data for imported and exported agricultural products from 2010 to 2020 in Russia. The main expectation was that the Russian economy would take a hit since it had lost its importers. We assess the economic impact of the Russian food embargo on agricultural commodities, questioning whether it has achieved its objective and resulted in a window of opportunity for the development of the domestic agricultural sector. Our results confirm that the sanctions have significantly impacted foodstuff imports; they have almost halved in the first two years since the sanctions were imposed. However, Russia has embarked on a path to reduce dependence on food imports and managed self-sufficient agricultural production.

econ.GN↗