arXiv subjects

Aye Aye Maung

Publications and source records attributed to Aye Aye Maung.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Evaluating Treatment Effects using Group Testing with Retesting of Positive Groups

Group testing is an established, highly cost-effective strategy for population-level disease surveillance that identifies positive individuals by pooling biological specimens. Originally introduced during World War II for large-scale screening and heavily utilized in modern high-throughput public health infrastructure, traditional group testing methods are restricted to purely associational analyses. Consequently, they lack the capacity to infer the direct causal effect of an intervention when individual-level data are subject to baseline confounding. In this work, we bridge this fundamental gap by introducing a causal inference framework tailored specifically for group testing designs. We integrate the principles of inverse probability weighting (IPW) directly into a pooled pseudo-likelihood formulation to construct an unbiased pseudo-score function. Under standard regularity conditions, we prove the consistency and asymptotic normality of our proposed plug-in estimator. Extensive numerical simulations demonstrate that our framework successfully purges severe selection bias, accurately recovering the true average treatment effect where traditional unweighted pooling models fail. Finally, we illustrate the practical utility of our method as both an estimation and a diagnostic tool using real-world observational surveillance data from the CDC's U.S. Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network.

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arXiv2026

Separating Spatial and Clinical Risk with Node-Splitting SVM Survival Trees

Recovering geographic variation in survival requires separating spatial risk from patients' clinical characteristics, a problem complicated by prognostic covariates that are themselves spatially structured. We develop a nonparametric two-stage method for this separation. A clinical survival tree fit to the covariates alone supplies leaf Nelson-Aalen cumulative hazard residuals, transferring the censored survival structure to a clinically adjusted scale without imposing a functional form on the clinical hazard, and a second tree fit to these residuals on the coordinates recovers the spatial structure. Both stages are kernel dipole-splitting survival trees, so the resulting spatial risk map is piecewise constant, with sharp, possibly curved boundaries. We establish when the residuals recover the spatial signal: under a multiplicative frailty and an exogeneity condition, they are free of the clinical covariates given location and stochastically ordered by the frailty. An expansion of the frailty Laplace exponent quantifies their approximate exponentiality and identifies the leading remainder. These results assume consistency of the first stage rather than a model class, so the construction extends to other survival estimators. On the LeukSurv leukemia data the method agrees with a Bayesian Gaussian random field frailty about where risk is elevated while resolving sharp adjacencies the smooth surface averages away, and an unadjusted spatial analysis misattributes clinical variation to location. Simulations with known zones, including a sweep through graded violations of exogeneity, locate the point at which the two contributions cease to be separately identifiable, with the smooth benchmark degrading in parallel as that point is approached.

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arXiv2025

Node Splitting SVMs for Survival Trees Based on an L2-Regularized Dipole Splitting Criteria

This paper proposes a novel, node-splitting support vector machine (SVM) for creating survival trees. This approach is capable of non-linearly partitioning survival data which includes continuous, right-censored outcomes. Our method improves on an existing non-parametric method, which uses at most oblique splits to induce survival regression trees. In the prior work, these oblique splits were created via a non-SVM approach, by minimizing a piece-wise linear objective, called a dipole splitting criterion, constructed from pairs of covariates and their associated survival information. We extend this method by enabling splits from a general class of non-linear surfaces. We achieve this by ridge regularizing the dipole-splitting criterion to enable application of kernel methods in a manner analogous to classical SVMs. The ridge regularization provides robustness and can be tuned. Using various kernels, we induce both linear and non-linear survival trees to compare their sizes and predictive powers on real and simulated data sets. We compare traditional univariate log-rank splits, oblique splits using the original dipole-splitting criterion and a variety of non-linear splits enabled by our method. In these tests, trees created by non-linear splits, using polynomial and Gaussian kernels show similar predictive power while often being of smaller sizes compared to trees created by univariate and oblique splits. This approach provides a novel and flexible array of survival trees that can be applied to diverse survival data sets.

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