Ayoub Belfatmi | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

CUSUM-Shaped Inference-Time Monitoring and Targeted Re-Decoding for Quantized Small Language Model Reasoning

Quantized small reasoning models can enter repetitive or otherwise unproductive trajectories, yet standard decoding does not adapt to the trajectory as it unfolds. We study MGT-B, a fixed, weight-preserving controller that converts overlapping windows of uncertainty, repetition, and local-change features into position-conditional empirical tail probabilities. It accumulates mixture betting factors with a CUSUM-shaped reset, and, after an alarm, restores a coherent earlier token and key-value-cache state before constrained re-decoding. On MATH-500, a paired three-seed evaluation over 1,500 generations per method raises exact-normalized accuracy from 54.73% for vanilla decoding to 56.40% (+1.67 percentage points; problem-clustered bootstrap 95% CI [+0.47, +2.80]), while a prospectively profiled random-intervention control reaches 54.60%. The gain is positive in all three seeds and costs 5.14% more sampled tokens. Seed-0 ablations show that rollback alone does not explain the result and that an isolated repetition penalty is harmful. Five-sample self-consistency reaches 70.0% but uses about 4.84x as many tokens as MGT-B. On the harder, non-overlapping Omni-MATH evaluation, however, MGT-B obtains 16.60% versus 16.67% for vanilla (-0.07 points; clustered 95% CI [-0.33, +0.20]) with 2.10% more sampled tokens. Thus, MGT-B provides a modest, reproducible local improvement on MATH-500 in the studied configuration, but the effect does not transfer to Omni-MATH and should not be interpreted as a general improvement in mathematical reasoning.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Calibrated e-CUSUM Decoding for Quantized Reasoning Models: Why Token Log-Probability Is the Wrong Observable for Decoding Monitors

Low-bit quantization makes small reasoning models inexpensive to deploy but can degrade their chains of thought. This motivates decoder-side monitors that intervene when generation becomes unreliable. We show that a natural candidate, the centered token log-probability increment $\log p(w_t)+H_t$, is the wrong observable for this purpose. Under the model's own sampling law it is a mean-zero martingale by construction, so it measures sampling self-consistency rather than trajectory health and is nearly silent during confident repetition, where both $\log p(w_t)$ and entropy are close to zero. We introduce a training-free decoding controller that combines (i) a degeneration-aware alarm score fusing token uncertainty with explicit verbatim repetition and (ii) a calibrated e-process-inspired sequential detector. The raw product process is Ville-valid under a conditional-mean null, while the deployed CUSUM-floored statistic is treated as an empirical change detector because the score is history-dependent and autocorrelated. On GSM8K with DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B in FP16 and INT4, calibration turns a monitor that fires on 93--95% of generations into a selective detector of failing traces ($\phi \approx 0.3$, precision $\approx 0.6$ against a 0.38 base rate). In this pilot, the controller reduces measured verbatim-degeneration signals and yields a positive but statistically inconclusive INT4 accuracy change from 63% to 69% (paired McNemar $p=0.18$, $n=100$), at a 28% token-budget cost. We also find that non-termination, rather than looping, is the dominant failure mode on GSM8K. The main contribution is methodological: an explanation of why centered token log-probability is inadequate for decoder monitoring and a calibrated, cautiously evaluated replacement.

cs.AI↗