arXiv subjects

Ayrton Zadra

Publications and source records attributed to Ayrton Zadra.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Leveraging data-driven weather models for improving numerical weather prediction skill through large-scale spectral nudging

Operational meteorological forecasting has long relied on physics-based numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Recently, this landscape has faced disruption by the advent of data-driven artificial intelligence (AI)-based weather models, which offer tremendous computational performance and competitive forecasting accuracy. However, data-driven models for medium-range forecasting generally suffer from major limitations, including low effective resolution and a narrow range of predicted variables. This study illustrates the relative strengths and weaknesses of these competing paradigms using the physics-based GEM (Global Environmental Multiscale) and the AI-based GraphCast models. Analyses of their respective global predictions in physical and spectral space reveal that GraphCast-predicted large scales outperform GEM, particularly for longer lead times, even though fine scales predicted by GraphCast suffer from excessive smoothing. Building on this insight, a hybrid NWP-AI system is proposed, wherein temperature and horizontal wind components predicted by GEM are spectrally nudged toward GraphCast predictions at large scales, while GEM itself freely generates the fine-scale details critical for local predictability and weather extremes. This hybrid approach is capable of leveraging the strengths of GraphCast to enhance the prediction skill of the GEM model while generating a full suite of physically consistent forecast fields with a full power spectrum. Additionally, trajectories of tropical cyclones are predicted with enhanced accuracy without significant changes in intensity. Work is in progress for operationalization of this hybrid system at the Canadian Meteorological Centre.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2021

Addendum: Hidden symmetries, trivial conservation laws and Casimir invariants in geophysical fluid dynamics (2018 J. Phys. Commun. 2 115018)

An extension is proposed to the internal symmetry transformations associated with mass, entropy and other Clebsch-related conservation in geophysical fluid dynamics. Those symmetry transformations were previously parameterized with an arbitrary function $\cal F$ of materially conserved Clebsch potentials. The extension consists in adding potential vorticity $q$ to the list of fields on which a new arbitrary function $\cal G$ depends. If ${\cal G}=q{\cal A}(s)$, where ${\cal A}(s)$ is an arbitrary function of specific entropy $s$, then the symmetry is trivial and gives rise to a trivial conservation law. Otherwise, the symmetry is non-trivial and an associated non-trivial conservation law exists. Moreover, the notions of trivial and non-trivial Casimir invariants are defined. All non-trivial symmetries that become hidden following a reduction of phase space are associated with non-trivial Casimir invariants of a non-canonical Hamiltonian formulation for fluids, while all trivial conservation laws are associated with trivial Casimir invariants.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2018

On the dissociation between potential vorticity conservation and symmetries

Using a four-dimensional manifestly covariant formalism suitable for classical fluid dynamics, it is shown that the conservation of potential vorticity is not associated with any symmetry of the equations of motion but is instead a trivial conservation law of the second kind. The demonstration is provided in arbitrary coordinates and therefore applies to comoving (or label) coordinates. Since this is at odds with previous studies, which claimed that potential vorticity conservation is associated with a symmetry under particle-relabeling, a detailed discussion on relabeling transformations is also presented.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2017

Non-trivial and trivial conservation laws in covariant formulations of geophysical fluid dynamics

Using a manifestly invariant Lagrangian density based on Clebsch fields and suitable for geophysical fluid dynamics, the conservation of mass, entropy, momentum and energy, and the associated symmetries are investigated. In contrast, it is shown that the conservation of Ertel's potential vorticity is not associated with any symmetry of the equations of motion, but is instead a trivial conservation law of the second kind. This is at odds with previous studies which claimed that potential vorticity conservation relates to a symmetry under particle-relabeling transformations. From the invariant Lagrangian density, a canonical Hamiltonian formulation is obtained in which Dirac constraints explicitly include the (possibly time-dependent) metric tensor. In this case, it is shown that all Dirac constraints are primary and of the second class, which implies that no local gauge symmetry transformations of Clebsch fields exist. Finally, the corresponding non-canonical Hamiltonian structure with time-dependent strong constraints is derived using tensor components. The existence of Casimir invariants is then investigated in arbitrary coordinates for two choices of dynamical variables in phase space.

physics.flu-dyn↗