arXiv subjects

Ayush Mohanty

Publications and source records attributed to Ayush Mohanty.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Federated Learning of Nonlinear Temporal Dynamics with Graph Attention-based Cross-Client Interpretability

Networks of modern industrial systems are increasingly monitored by distributed sensors, where each system comprises multiple subsystems that generate high-dimensional time-series. These subsystems are often interdependent, making it important to understand how temporal patterns observed at one subsystem relate to those observed across others. This problem is particularly challenging in decentralized settings where raw measurements cannot be shared, and client observations are heterogeneous. Moreover, in practice, each subsystem (client) operates a fixed, proprietary model that cannot be modified or retrained, limiting the applicability of existing approaches. Separately, nonlinear dynamics make cross-client temporal interdependencies difficult to characterize, as they are embedded implicitly within nonlinear state-transition functions. This paper presents a vertical federated learning framework for learning one-step-ahead cross-client temporal interdependencies under these constraints. Each client maps high-dimensional local observations to low-dimensional latent states using a nonlinear state-space model, while a Graph Attention Network (GAT)-based central server learns a state-transition model over the communicated states. Given a candidate graph skeleton, the server learns state-dependent attention coefficients that capture cross-client interactions. We analytically relate the GAT attention coefficients to the Jacobian of the learned state-transition model, yielding a first-order characterization of cross-client interdependencies. We further establish bounded closeness of the learned dynamics and Jacobians to a corresponding centralized oracle. Synthetic experiments validate the theoretical results on controlled systems with known graph skeletons. Experiments on real-world datasets with unknown graph skeletons demonstrate superior federated root cause analysis over baselines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Prognostics for Autonomous Deep-Space Habitat Health Management under Multiple Unknown Failure Modes

Deep-space habitats (DSHs) are safety-critical systems that must operate autonomously for long periods, often beyond the reach of ground-based maintenance or expert intervention. Monitoring system health and anticipating failures are therefore essential. Prognostics based on remaining useful life (RUL) prediction support this goal by estimating how long a subsystem can operate before failure. Critical DSH subsystems, including environmental control and life support, power generation, and thermal control, are monitored by many sensors and can degrade through multiple failure modes. These failure modes are often unknown, and informative sensors may vary across modes, making accurate RUL prediction challenging when historical failure data are unlabeled. We propose an unsupervised prognostics framework for RUL prediction that jointly identifies latent failure modes and selects informative sensors using unlabeled run-to-failure data. The framework consists of two phases: an offline phase, where system failure times are modeled using a mixture of Gaussian regressions and an Expectation-Maximization algorithm to cluster degradation trajectories and select mode-specific sensors, and an online phase for real-time diagnosis and RUL prediction using low-dimensional features and a weighted functional regression model. The approach is validated on simulated DSH telemetry data and the NASA C-MAPSS benchmark, demonstrating its ability to identify unknown failure modes, select mode-specific informative sensors, and accurately predict RUL.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Uncertainty Quantification in Federated Granger Causality Learning

Granger causality identifies predictive dependencies in multivariate time series. In distributed settings where parties cannot share data, federated causal learning enables joint analysis. Most federated causal methods assume that clients observe the same features and infer causal relationships as point estimates, with little formal uncertainty quantification. These assumptions do not hold in many industrial systems, where clients observe different features, and the objective is to estimate cross-client dependencies (edges). These dependencies must be estimated indirectly through repeated client-server iterations. Uncertainty from client data and model parameters propagates through this process, making point estimates alone insufficient for assessing cross-client edges. This paper characterizes this uncertainty propagation and uses edge-specific variances to distinguish genuine cross-client dependencies from spurious estimated edges. We consider aleatoric uncertainty from client data variability and epistemic uncertainty from model parameters. We derive closed-form variance recursions and steady-state variances for the client-server iterations. We prove that the propagated contribution of the initial model-parameter uncertainty vanishes asymptotically. These variances enable statistically principled selection of cross-client edges. Synthetic experiments show that our approach improves cross-client edge recovery over competing baselines. On real-world industrial datasets, it achieves high root-cause identification accuracy while yielding interpretable dependency structures.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Federated Causal Representation Learning in State-Space Systems for Decentralized Counterfactual Reasoning

Networks of interdependent industrial assets (clients) are tightly coupled through physical processes and control inputs, raising a key question: how would the output of one client change if another client were operated differently? This is difficult to answer because client-specific data are high-dimensional and private, making centralization of raw data infeasible. Each client also maintains proprietary local models that cannot be modified. We propose a federated framework for causal representation learning in state-space systems that captures interdependencies among clients under these constraints. Each client maps high-dimensional observations into low-dimensional latent states that disentangle intrinsic dynamics from control-driven influences. A central server estimates the global state-transition and control structure. This enables decentralized counterfactual reasoning where clients predict how outputs would change under alternative control inputs at others while only exchanging compact latent states. We prove convergence to a centralized oracle and provide privacy guarantees. Our experiments demonstrate scalability, and accurate cross-client counterfactual inference on synthetic and real-world industrial control system datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Learning Unknown Interdependencies for Decentralized Root Cause Analysis in Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

Root cause analysis (RCA) in networked industrial systems, such as supply chains and power networks, is notoriously difficult due to unknown and dynamically evolving interdependencies among geographically distributed clients. These clients represent heterogeneous physical processes and industrial assets equipped with sensors that generate large volumes of nonlinear, high-dimensional, and heterogeneous IoT data. Classical RCA methods require partial or full knowledge of the system's dependency graph, which is rarely available in these complex networks. While federated learning (FL) offers a natural framework for decentralized settings, most existing FL methods assume homogeneous feature spaces and retrainable client models. These assumptions are not compatible with our problem setting. Different clients have different data features and often run fixed, proprietary models that cannot be modified. This paper presents a federated cross-client interdependency learning methodology for feature-partitioned, nonlinear time-series data, without requiring access to raw sensor streams or modifying proprietary client models. Each proprietary local client model is augmented with a Machine Learning (ML) model that encodes cross-client interdependencies. These ML models are coordinated via a global server that enforces representation consistency while preserving privacy through calibrated differential privacy noise. RCA is performed using model residuals and anomaly flags. We establish theoretical convergence guarantees and validate our approach on extensive simulations and a real-world industrial cybersecurity dataset.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Prognostic Framework for Robotic Manipulators Operating Under Dynamic Task Severities

Robotic manipulators are critical in many applications but are known to degrade over time. This degradation is influenced by the nature of the tasks performed by the robot. Tasks with higher severity, such as handling heavy payloads, can accelerate the degradation process. One way this degradation is reflected is in the position accuracy of the robot's end-effector. In this paper, we present a prognostic modeling framework that predicts a robotic manipulator's Remaining Useful Life (RUL) while accounting for the effects of task severity. Our framework represents the robot's position accuracy as a Brownian motion process with a random drift parameter that is influenced by task severity. The dynamic nature of task severity is modeled using a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC). To evaluate RUL, we discuss two approaches -- (1) a novel closed-form expression for Remaining Lifetime Distribution (RLD), and (2) Monte Carlo simulations, commonly used in prognostics literature. Theoretical results establish the equivalence between these RUL computation approaches. We validate our framework through experiments using two distinct physics-based simulators for planar and spatial robot fleets. Our findings show that robots in both fleets experience shorter RUL when handling a higher proportion of high-severity tasks.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2025

Federated Granger Causality Learning for Interdependent Clients with State Space Representation

Advanced sensors and IoT devices have improved the monitoring and control of complex industrial enterprises. They have also created an interdependent fabric of geographically distributed process operations (clients) across these enterprises. Granger causality is an effective approach to detect and quantify interdependencies by examining how one client's state affects others over time. Understanding these interdependencies captures how localized events, such as faults and disruptions, can propagate throughout the system, possibly causing widespread operational impacts. However, the large volume and complexity of industrial data pose challenges in modeling these interdependencies. This paper develops a federated approach to learning Granger causality. We utilize a linear state space system framework that leverages low-dimensional state estimates to analyze interdependencies. This addresses bandwidth limitations and the computational burden commonly associated with centralized data processing. We propose augmenting the client models with the Granger causality information learned by the server through a Machine Learning (ML) function. We examine the co-dependence between the augmented client and server models and reformulate the framework as a standalone ML algorithm providing conditions for its sublinear and linear convergence rates. We also study the convergence of the framework to a centralized oracle model. Moreover, we include a differential privacy analysis to ensure data security while preserving causal insights. Using synthetic data, we conduct comprehensive experiments to demonstrate the robustness of our approach to perturbations in causality, the scalability to the size of communication, number of clients, and the dimensions of raw data. We also evaluate the performance on two real-world industrial control system datasets by reporting the volume of data saved by decentralization.

cs.LG↗