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Błażej Miasojedow

Publications and source records attributed to Błażej Miasojedow.

30 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Asymptotics of maximum likelihood estimators based on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

In many complex statistical models maximum likelihood estimators cannot be calculated. In the paper we solve this problem using Markov chain Monte Carlo approximation of the true likelihood. In the main result we prove asymptotic normality of the estimator, when both sample sizes (the initial and Monte Carlo one) tend to infinity. Our result can be applied to models with intractable norming constants and missing data models.

math.ST↗

Analysis of nonsmooth stochastic approximation: the differential inclusion approach

In this paper we address the convergence of stochastic approximation when the functions to be minimized are not convex and nonsmooth. We show that the "mean-limit" approach to the convergence which leads, for smooth problems, to the ODE approach can be adapted to the non-smooth case. The limiting dynamical system may be shown to be, under appropriate assumption, a differential inclusion. Our results expand earlier works in this direction by Benaim et al. (2005) and provide a general framework for proving convergence for unconstrained and constrained stochastic approximation problems, with either explicit or implicit updates. In particular, our results allow us to establish the convergence of stochastic subgradient and proximal stochastic gradient descent algorithms arising in a large class of deep learning and high-dimensional statistical inference with sparsity inducing penalties.

math.OC↗

Analysis of Langevin Monte Carlo via convex optimization

In this paper, we provide new insights on the Unadjusted Langevin Algorithm. We show that this method can be formulated as a first order optimization algorithm of an objective functional defined on the Wasserstein space of order $2$. Using this interpretation and techniques borrowed from convex optimization, we give a non-asymptotic analysis of this method to sample from logconcave smooth target distribution on $\mathbb{R}^d$. Based on this interpretation, we propose two new methods for sampling from a non-smooth target distribution, which we analyze as well. Besides, these new algorithms are natural extensions of the Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD) algorithm, which is a popular extension of the Unadjusted Langevin Algorithm. Similar to SGLD, they only rely on approximations of the gradient of the target log density and can be used for large-scale Bayesian inference.

stat.CO↗

Assigning peaks and modeling ETD in top-down mass spectrometry

Among many techniques of modern mass spectrometry, the top down methods are becoming continuously more popular in the overall strive to describe the proteome. These techniques are based on fragmentation of ions inside mass spectrometers instead of being proteolytically digested. In some of these techniques, the fragmentation is induced by electron transfer. It can trigger several concurring reactions: electron transfer dissociation, electron transfer without dissociation, and proton transfer reaction. The evaluation of the extent of these reactions is important for the proper understanding of the functioning of the instrument and, what is even more important, to know if it can be used to reveal important structural information. We present a workflow for assigning peaks and interpreting the results of electron transfer driven reactions. We also present software written in Python and available under GNU v3 license.

stat.AP↗

Geometric ergodicity of Rao and Teh's algorithm for Markov jump processes and CTBNs

Rao and Teh (2012, 2013) introduced an efficient MCMC algorithm for sampling from the posterior distribution of a hidden Markov jump process. The algorithm is based on the idea of sampling virtual jumps. In the present paper we show that the Markov chain generated by Rao and Teh's algorithm is geometrically ergodic. To this end we establish a geometric drift condition towards a small set. A similar result is also proved for a special version of the algorithm, used for probabilistic inference in Continuous Time Bayesian Networks.

stat.CO↗

Bayesian inference for age-structured population model of infectious disease with application to varicella in Poland

Dynamics of the infectious disease transmission is often best understood taking into account the structure of population with respect to specific features, in example age or immunity level. Practical utility of such models depends on the appropriate calibration with the observed data. Here, we discuss the Bayesian approach to data assimilation in case of two-state age-structured model. This kind of models are frequently used to describe the disease dynamics (i.e. force of infection) basing on prevalence data collected at several time points. We demonstrate that, in the case when the explicit solution to the model equation is known, accounting for the data collection process in the Bayesian framework allows to obtain an unbiased posterior distribution for the parameters determining the force of infection. We further show analytically and through numerical tests that the posterior distribution of these parameters is stable with respect to cohort approximation (Escalator Boxcar Train) to the solution. Finally, we apply the technique to calibrate the model based on observed sero-prevalence of varicella in Poland.

stat.AP↗

Geometric ergodicity of Rao and Teh's algorithm for Markov jump processes

Rao and Teh (2013) introduced an efficient MCMC algorithm for sampling from the posterior distribution of a hidden Markov jump process. The algorithm is based on the idea of sampling virtual jumps. In the present paper we show that the Markov chain generated by Rao and Teh's algorithm is geometrically ergodic. To this end we establish a geometric drift condition towards a small set.

stat.ME↗

Optimal scaling for the transient phase of the random walk Metropolis algorithm: The mean-field limit

We consider the random walk Metropolis algorithm on $\mathbb{R}^n$ with Gaussian proposals, and when the target probability measure is the $n$-fold product of a one-dimensional law. In the limit $n\to\infty$, it is well known (see [Ann. Appl. Probab. 7 (1997) 110-120]) that, when the variance of the proposal scales inversely proportional to the dimension $n$ whereas time is accelerated by the factor $n$, a diffusive limit is obtained for each component of the Markov chain if this chain starts at equilibrium. This paper extends this result when the initial distribution is not the target probability measure. Remarking that the interaction between the components of the chain due to the common acceptance/rejection of the proposed moves is of mean-field type, we obtain a propagation of chaos result under the same scaling as in the stationary case. This proves that, in terms of the dimension $n$, the same scaling holds for the transient phase of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm as near stationarity. The diffusive and mean-field limit of each component is a diffusion process nonlinear in the sense of McKean. This opens the route to new investigations of the optimal choice for the variance of the proposal distribution in order to accelerate convergence to equilibrium (see [Optimal scaling for the transient phase of Metropolis-Hastings algorithms: The longtime behavior Bernoulli (2014) To appear]).

math.PR↗

Optimal scaling for the transient phase of Metropolis Hastings algorithms: The longtime behavior

We consider the Random Walk Metropolis algorithm on $\mathbb{R}^n$ with Gaussian proposals, and when the target probability measure is the $n$-fold product of a one-dimensional law. It is well known (see Roberts et al. (Ann. Appl. Probab. 7 (1997) 110-120)) that, in the limit $n\to\infty$, starting at equilibrium and for an appropriate scaling of the variance and of the timescale as a function of the dimension $n$, a diffusive limit is obtained for each component of the Markov chain. In Jourdain et al. (Optimal scaling for the transient phase of the random walk Metropolis algorithm: The mean-field limit (2012) Preprint), we generalize this result when the initial distribution is not the target probability measure. The obtained diffusive limit is the solution to a stochastic differential equation nonlinear in the sense of McKean. In the present paper, we prove convergence to equilibrium for this equation. We discuss practical counterparts in order to optimize the variance of the proposal distribution to accelerate convergence to equilibrium. Our analysis confirms the interest of the constant acceptance rate strategy (with acceptance rate between $1/4$ and $1/3$) first suggested in Roberts et al. (Ann. Appl. Probab. 7 (1997) 110-120). We also address scaling of the Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin Algorithm. When starting at equilibrium, a diffusive limit for an optimal scaling of the variance is obtained in Roberts and Rosenthal (J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B. Stat. Methodol. 60 (1998) 255-268). In the transient case, we obtain formally that the optimal variance scales very differently in $n$ depending on the sign of a moment of the distribution, which vanishes at equilibrium. This suggest that it is difficult to derive practical recommendations for MALA from such asymptotic results.

stat.ME↗

State dependent swap strategies and adaptive adjusting of number of temperatures in Parallel Tempering algorithms

In this paper we present extensions to the original adaptive parallel tempering algorithm. Two different approaches are presented. In the first one we introduce state-dependent strategies using current information to perform a swap step. It encompasses a wide family of potential moves including the standard one and Equi Energy type move, without any loss in tractability. In the second one, we introduce online adjustment of the number of temperatures. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

stat.CO↗

Nonasymptotic bounds on the estimation error of MCMC algorithms

We address the problem of upper bounding the mean square error of MCMC estimators. Our analysis is nonasymptotic. We first establish a general result valid for essentially all ergodic Markov chains encountered in Bayesian computation and a possibly unbounded target function $f$. The bound is sharp in the sense that the leading term is exactly $σ_{\mathrm {as}}^2(P,f)/n$, where $σ_{\mathrm{as}}^2(P,f)$ is the CLT asymptotic variance. Next, we proceed to specific additional assumptions and give explicit computable bounds for geometrically and polynomially ergodic Markov chains under quantitative drift conditions. As a corollary, we provide results on confidence estimation.

stat.ME↗