arXiv subjects

B. Cooper Boniece

Publications and source records attributed to B. Cooper Boniece.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Online detection of distributional changes for time series in metric spaces

We propose an online testing framework for detecting distributional changes in serially dependent data with values in a separable metric space. Based on two-sample $U$-statistics, the framework encompasses sequential analogs of energy distance and maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) procedures while accommodating temporal dependence. We establish asymptotic theory for finite and open-ended monitoring horizons that characterizes the full asymptotic run-length distribution under $H_0$ and yields asymptotic false-alarm control. We further establish new spectral approximation results for kernel matrices formed from serially dependent observations, and use them to construct a feasible Monte Carlo calibration procedure. Our flexible window construction encompasses classical, Page-type, and full-scan historical-baseline monitoring and can achieve short detection delays for both early and late changepoints, without requiring sub-Gaussianity or high-order moments of the raw observations. Simulations show reliable false-alarm control across linear, nonlinear, high-dimensional, and functional time-series models and further demonstrate that, over a broad range of alternatives and changepoint locations, the proposed method can achieve substantially shorter delays than recent procedures designed specifically for rapid detection. Applications to foreign exchange rates, electricity-market curves, and daily air transportation networks illustrate the methodology across scalar, functional, and network-valued time series.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Sequential monitoring for distributional changepoints using degenerate U-statistics

We investigate the online detection of changepoints in the distribution of a sequence of observations using a class of degenerate \textit{U}-statistic-type processes. We consider an ordinary (Chu--Stinchcombe--White-type) detector and a Page-type detector under open- and closed-ended monitoring, and introduce an expanding-baseline Page-type procedure that incorporates sufficiently old monitoring observations into the baseline sample. Under the null, we derive weak limits for all three procedures and justify a Monte Carlo approximation to their critical values. For the ordinary and Page-type detectors, we also establish consistency and limiting distributions for detection delays under both early and late changes. The theory requires only square summability of the eigenvalues associated with the degenerate kernel operator, rather than the stronger absolute-summability condition often imposed in related work. Simulations show competitive performance relative to recent mean-, covariance-, and empirical-CDF-based monitors, and an application to multivariate compressor-sensor data from a metro train illustrates the methodology.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Debiased Kernel Estimation of Spot Volatility in the Presence of Infinite Variation Jumps

Volatility estimation is a central problem in financial econometrics, but becomes particularly challenging when jump activity is high, a phenomenon observed empirically in highly traded financial securities. In this paper, we revisit the problem of spot volatility estimation for an Itô semimartingale with jumps of unbounded variation. We construct truncated kernel-based estimators and debiased variants that extend rate-optimal spot volatility estimation to a wider range of jump activity indices, from the previously available bound $Y<4/3$ to $Y<20/11$. Rate-suboptimal CLTs are also established for $Y>20/11$. Compared with earlier work, our approach achieves smaller asymptotic variances through the use of more general kernels and an optimal choice for the bandwidth convergence rate, and also has broader applicability under more flexible model assumptions. A comprehensive simulation study confirms that our procedures outperform competing methods in finite samples.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2024

Data-driven fixed-point tuning for truncated realized variations

Many methods for estimating integrated volatility and related functionals of semimartingales in the presence of jumps require specification of tuning parameters for their use in practice. In much of the available theory, tuning parameters are assumed to be deterministic and their values are specified only up to asymptotic constraints. However, in empirical work and in simulation studies, they are typically chosen to be random and data-dependent, with explicit choices often relying entirely on heuristics. In this paper, we consider novel data-driven tuning procedures for the truncated realized variations of a semimartingale with jumps based on a type of random fixed-point iteration. Being effectively automated, our approach alleviates the need for delicate decision-making regarding tuning parameters in practice and can be implemented using information regarding sampling frequency alone. We demonstrate our methods can lead to asymptotically efficient estimation of integrated volatility and exhibit superior finite-sample performance compared to popular alternatives in the literature.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

On high-dimensional wavelet eigenanalysis

In this paper, we characterize the asymptotic and large scale behavior of the eigenvalues of wavelet random matrices in high dimensions. We assume that possibly non-Gaussian, finite-variance $p$-variate measurements are made of a low-dimensional $r$-variate ($r \ll p$) fractional stochastic process with non-canonical scaling coordinates and in the presence of additive high-dimensional noise. The measurements are correlated both time-wise and between rows. We show that the $r$ largest eigenvalues of the wavelet random matrices, when appropriately rescaled, converge in probability to scale-invariant functions in the high-dimensional limit. By contrast, the remaining $p-r$ eigenvalues remain bounded in probability. Under additional assumptions, we show that the $r$ largest log-eigenvalues of wavelet random matrices exhibit asymptotically Gaussian distributions. The results have direct consequences for statistical inference.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

Efficient Integrated Volatility Estimation in the Presence of Infinite Variation Jumps via Debiased Truncated Realized Variations

Statistical inference for stochastic processes based on high-frequency observations has been an active research area for more than two decades. One of the most well-known and widely studied problems has been the estimation of the quadratic variation of the continuous component of an Itô semimartingale with jumps. Several rate- and variance-efficient estimators have been proposed in the literature when the jump component is of bounded variation. However, to date, very few methods can deal with jumps of unbounded variation. By developing new high-order expansions of the truncated moments of a locally stable Lévy process, we propose a new rate- and variance-efficient volatility estimator for a class of Itô semimartingales whose jumps behave locally like those of a stable Lévy process with Blumenthal-Getoor index $Y\in (1,8/5)$ (hence, of unbounded variation). The proposed method is based on a two-step debiasing procedure for the truncated realized quadratic variation of the process and can also cover the case $Y<1$. Our Monte Carlo experiments indicate that the method outperforms other efficient alternatives in the literature in the setting covered by our theoretical framework.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2023

Change point detection in high dimensional data with U-statistics

We consider the problem of detecting distributional changes in a sequence of high dimensional data. Our approach combines two separate statistics stemming from $L_p$ norms whose behavior is similar under $H_0$ but potentially different under $H_A$, leading to a testing procedure that that is flexible against a variety of alternatives. We establish the asymptotic distribution of our proposed test statistics separately in cases of weakly dependent and strongly dependent coordinates as $\min\{N,d\}\to\infty$, where $N$ denotes sample size and $d$ is the dimension, and establish consistency of testing and estimation procedures in high dimensions under one-change alternative settings. Computational studies in single and multiple change point scenarios demonstrate our method can outperform other nonparametric approaches in the literature for certain alternatives in high dimensions. We illustrate our approach though an application to Twitter data concerning the mentions of U.S. Governors.

math.ST↗

arXiv2023

On changepoint detection in functional data using empirical energy distance

We propose a novel family of test statistics to detect the presence of changepoints in a sequence of dependent, possibly multivariate, functional-valued observations. Our approach allows to test for a very general class of changepoints, including the "classical" case of changes in the mean, and even changes in the whole distribution. Our statistics are based on a generalisation of the empirical energy distance; we propose weighted functionals of the energy distance process, which are designed in order to enhance the ability to detect breaks occurring at sample endpoints. The limiting distribution of the maximally selected version of our statistics requires only the computation of the eigenvalues of the covariance function, thus being readily implementable in the most commonly employed packages, e.g. R. We show that, under the alternative, our statistics are able to detect changepoints occurring even very close to the beginning/end of the sample. In the presence of multiple changepoints, we propose a binary segmentation algorithm to estimate the number of breaks and the locations thereof. Simulations show that our procedures work very well in finite samples. We complement our theory with applications to financial and temperature data.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Wavelet eigenvalue regression in high dimensions

In this paper, we construct the wavelet eigenvalue regression methodology in high dimensions. We assume that possibly non-Gaussian, finite-variance $p$-variate measurements are made of a low-dimensional $r$-variate ($r \ll p$) fractional stochastic process with non-canonical scaling coordinates and in the presence of additive high-dimensional noise. The measurements are correlated both time-wise and between rows. Building upon the asymptotic and large scale properties of wavelet random matrices in high dimensions, the wavelet eigenvalue regression is shown to be consistent and, under additional assumptions, asymptotically Gaussian in the estimation of the fractal structure of the system. We further construct a consistent estimator of the effective dimension $r$ of the system that significantly increases the robustness of the methodology. The estimation performance over finite samples is studied by means of simulations.

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

Efficient Volatility Estimation for Lévy Processes with Jumps of Unbounded Variation

Statistical inference for stochastic processes based on high-frequency observations has been an active research area for more than a decade. One of the most well-known and widely studied problems is that of estimation of the quadratic variation of the continuous component of an Itô semimartingale with jumps. Several rate- and variance-efficient estimators have been proposed in the literature when the jump component is of bounded variation. However, to date, very few methods can deal with jumps of unbounded variation. By developing new high-order expansions of the truncated moments of a Lévy process, we construct a new rate- and variance-efficient estimator for a class of Lévy processes of unbounded variation, whose small jumps behave like those of a stable Lévy process with Blumenthal-Getoor index less than $8/5$. The proposed method is based on a two-step debiasing procedure for the truncated realized quadratic variation of the process. Our Monte Carlo experiments indicate that the method outperforms other efficient alternatives in the literature in the setting covered by our theoretical framework.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2018

Tempered fractional Brownian motion: wavelet estimation, modeling and testing

The Davenport spectrum is a modification of the classical Kolmogorov spectrum for the inertial range of turbulence that accounts for non-scaling low frequency behavior. Like the classical fractional Brownian motion vis-à-vis the Kolmogorov spectrum, tempered fractional Brownian motion (tfBm) is a canonical model that displays the Davenport spectrum. The autocorrelation of the increments of tfBm displays semi-long range dependence (hyperbolic and quasi-exponential decays over moderate and large scales, respectively), a phenomenon that has been observed in wide a range of applications from wind speeds to geophysics to finance. In this paper, we use wavelets to construct the first estimation method for tfBm and a simple and computationally efficient test for fBm vs tfBm alternatives. The properties of the wavelet estimator and test are mathematically and computationally established. An application of the methodology to the analysis of geophysical flow data shows that tfBm provides a much closer fit than fBm.

math.ST↗