arXiv subjects

B. Guardabascio

Publications and source records attributed to B. Guardabascio.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

A new mapping of technological interdependence

How does technological interdependence affect innovation? We address this question by examining the influence of neighbors' innovativeness and the structure of the innovators' network on a sector's capacity to develop new technologies. We study these two dimensions of technological interdependence by applying novel methods of text mining and network analysis to the documents of 6.5 million patents granted by the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) between 1976 and 2021. We find that, in the long run, the influence of network linkages is as important as that of neighbor innovativeness. In the short run, however, positive shocks to neighbor innovativeness yield relatively rapid effects, while the impact of shocks strengthening network linkages manifests with delay, even though lasts longer. Our analysis also highlights that patent text contains a wealth of information often not captured by traditional innovation metrics, such as patent citations.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2022

The Time-Varying Multivariate Autoregressive Index Model

Many economic variables feature changes in their conditional mean and volatility, and Time Varying Vector Autoregressive Models are often used to handle such complexity in the data. Unfortunately, when the number of series grows, they present increasing estimation and interpretation problems. This paper tries to address this issue proposing a new Multivariate Autoregressive Index model that features time varying means and volatility. Technically, we develop a new estimation methodology that mix switching algorithms with the forgetting factors strategy of Koop and Korobilis (2012). This substantially reduces the computational burden and allows to select or weight, in real time, the number of common components and other features of the data using Dynamic Model Selection or Dynamic Model Averaging without further computational cost. Using USA macroeconomic data, we provide a structural analysis and a forecasting exercise that demonstrates the feasibility and usefulness of this new model. Keywords: Large datasets, Multivariate Autoregressive Index models, Stochastic volatility, Bayesian VARs.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2021

Forecasting consumer confidence through semantic network analysis of online news

This research studies the impact of online news on social and economic consumer perceptions through semantic network analysis. Using over 1.8 million online articles on Italian media covering four years, we calculate the semantic importance of specific economic-related keywords to see if words appearing in the articles could anticipate consumers' judgments about the economic situation and the Consumer Confidence Index. We use an innovative approach to analyze big textual data, combining methods and tools of text mining and social network analysis. Results show a strong predictive power for the judgments about the current households and national situation. Our indicator offers a complementary approach to estimating consumer confidence, lessening the limitations of traditional survey-based methods.

econ.GN↗