arXiv subjects

B. Scott Gaudi

Publications and source records attributed to B. Scott Gaudi.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Simulations for Planning Next-Generation Exoplanet Radial Velocity Surveys

Future direct imaging missions such as HabEx and LUVOIR aim to catalog and characterize Earth-mass analogs around nearby stars. The exoplanet yield of these missions will be dependent on the frequency of Earth-like planets, and potentially the a priori knowledge of which stars specifically host suitable planetary systems. Ground or space based radial velocity surveys can potentially perform the pre-selection of targets and assist in the optimization of observation times, as opposed to an uninformed direct imaging survey. In this paper, we present our framework for simulating future radial velocity surveys of nearby stars in support of direct imaging missions. We generate lists of exposure times, observation time-series, and radial velocity time-series given a direct imaging target list. We generate simulated surveys for a proposed set of telescopes and precise radial velocity spectrographs spanning a set of plausible global-network architectures that may be considered for next generation extremely precise radial velocity surveys. We also develop figures of merit for observation frequency and planet detection sensitivity, and compare these across architectures. From these, we draw conclusions, given our stated assumptions and caveats, to optimize the yield of future radial velocity surveys in support of direct imaging missions. We find that all of our considered surveys obtain sufficient numbers of precise observations to meet the minimum theoretical white noise detection sensitivity for Earth-mass habitable zone planets, with margin to explore systematic effects due to stellar activity and correlated noise.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

Systematic KMTNet Planetary Anomaly Search. V. Complete Sample of 2018 Prime-Field

We complete the analysis of all 2018 prime-field microlensing planets identified by the KMTNet AnomalyFinder. Among the 10 previously unpublished events with clear planetary solutions, 8 are either unambiguously planetary or are very likely to be planetary in nature: OGLE-2018-BLG-1126, KMT-2018-BLG-2004, OGLE-2018-BLG-1647, OGLE-2018-BLG-1367, OGLE-2018-BLG-1544, OGLE-2018-BLG-0932, OGLE-2018-BLG-1212, and KMT-2018-BLG-2718. Combined with the 4 previously published new AnomalyFinder events and 12 previously published (or in preparation) planets that were discovered by eye, thismakes a total of 24 2018 prime-field planets discovered or recovered by AnomalyFinder. Together with a paper in preparation on 2018 sub-prime planets, this work lays the basis for the first statistical analysis of the planet mass-ratio function based on planets identified in KMTNet data. By systematically applying the heuristic analysis of Hwang et al. (2022) to each event, we identify the small modification in their formalism that is needed to unify the so-called close/wide and inner/outer degeneracies, as conjectured by

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

Nodal Precession and Tidal Evolution of Two Hot-Jupiters: WASP-33 b and KELT-9 b

Hot Jupiters orbiting rapidly rotating stars on inclined orbits undergo tidally induced nodal precession measurable over several years of observations. The Hot Jupiters WASP-33 b and KELT-9 b are particularly interesting targets as they are among the hottest planets found to date, orbiting relatively massive stars. Here, we analyze archival and new data that span 11 and 5 years for WASP-33 b and KELT-9 b, respectively, in order to to model and improve upon their tidal precession parameters. Our work confirms the nodal precession for WASP-33 b and presents the first clear detection of the precession of KELT-9 b. We determine that WASP-33 and KELT-9 have gravitational quadrupole moments $(6.3^{+1.2}_{-0.8})\times10^{-5}$ and $(3.26^{+0.93}_{-0.80})\times10^{-4}$, respectively. We estimate the planets' precession periods to be $1460^{+170}_{-130}$ years and $890^{+200}_{-140}$ years, respectively, and that they will cease to transit their host stars around the years $2090^{+17}_{-10}$~CE and $2074^{+12}_{-10}$~CE, respectively. Additionally, we investigate both planets' tidal and orbital evolution, suggesting that a high-eccentricity tidal migration scenario is possible to produce both system architectures and that they will most likely not be engulfed by their hosts before the end of their main sequence lifetimes.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

Variable and super-sonic winds in the atmosphere of an ultra-hot giant planet

Hot Jupiters receive intense irradiation from their stellar hosts. The resulting extreme environments in their atmospheres allow us to study the conditions that drive planetary atmospheric dynamics, e.g., global-scale winds. General circulation models predict day-to-nightside winds and equatorial jets with speeds on the order of a few km $\mathrm{s^{-1}}$. To test these models, we apply high-resolution transmission spectroscopy using the PEPSI spectrograph on the Large Binocular Telescope to study the atmosphere of KELT-9 b, an ultra-hot Jupiter and currently the hottest known planet. We measure $\sim$10 km $\mathrm{s^{-1}}$ day-to-nightside winds traced by Fe II features in the planet's atmosphere. This is at odds with previous literature (including data taken with PEPSI), which report no significant day-to-nightside winds on KELT-9 b. We identify the cause of this discrepancy as due to an inaccurate ephemeris for KELT-9 b in previous literature. We update the ephemeris, which shifts the mid-transit time by up to 10 minutes for previous datasets, resulting in consistent detections of blueshifts in all the datasets analyzed here. Furthermore, a comparison with archival HARPS-N datasets suggests temporal wind variability $\sim$5-8 km $\mathrm{s^{-1}}$ over timescales between weeks to years. Temporal variability of atmospheric dynamics on hot Jupiters is a phenomenon anticipated by certain general circulation models that has not been observed over these timescales until now. However, such large variability as we measure on KELT-9 b challenges general circulation models, which predict much lower amplitudes of wind variability over timescales between days to weeks.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

OGLE-2016-BLG-1093Lb: A Sub-Jupiter-mass Spitzer Planet Located in Galactic Bulge

OGLE-2016-BLG-1093 is a planetary microlensing event that is part of the statistical $Spitzer$ microlens parallax sample. The precise measurement of the microlens parallax effect for this event, combined with the measurement of finite source effects, leads to a direct measurement of the lens masses and system distance: $M_{\rm host} = 0.38$--$0.57\, M_{\odot}$, $m_p = 0.59$--$0.87\, M_{\rm Jup}$, and the system is located at the Galactic bulge ($D_L \sim 8.1$ kpc). Because this was a high-magnification event, we are also able to empirically show that the "cheap-space parallax" concept Gould & Yee (2012) produces well-constrained (and consistent) results for $|π_{\rm E}|$. This demonstrates that this concept can be extended to many two-body lenses. Finally, we briefly explore systematics in the $Spitzer$ light curve in this event and show that their potential impact is strongly mitigated by the color-constraint.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

KELT-9 as an eclipsing double-lined spectroscopic binary: a unique and self-consistent solution to the system

Transiting hot Jupiters present a unique opportunity to measure absolute planetary masses due to the magnitude of their radial velocity signals and known orbital inclination. Measuring planet mass is critical to understanding atmospheric dynamics and escape under extreme stellar irradiation. Here, we present the ultra-hot Jupiter system, KELT-9, as a double-lined spectroscopic binary. This allows us to directly and empirically constrain the mass of the star and its planetary companion, without reference to any theoretical stellar evolutionary models or empirical stellar scaling relations. Using data from the PEPSI, HARPS-N, and TRES spectrographs across multiple epochs, we apply least-squares deconvolution to measure out-of-transit stellar radial velocities. With the PEPSI and HARPS-N datasets, we measure in-transit planet radial velocities using transmission spectroscopy. By fitting the circular orbital solution that captures these Keplerian motions, we recover a planetary dynamical mass of 2.17 $\pm$ 0.56 $\mathrm{M_J}$ and stellar dynamical mass of 2.11 $\pm$ 0.78 $\mathrm{M_\odot}$, both of which agree with the discovery paper. Furthermore, we argue that this system, as well as systems like it, are highly overconstrained, providing multiple independent avenues for empirically cross-validating model-independent solutions to the system parameters. We also discuss the implications of this revised mass for studies of atmospheric escape.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

Giant Planets, Tiny Stars: Producing Short-Period Planets around White Dwarfs with the Eccentric Kozai-Lidov Mechanism

The recent discoveries of WD J091405.30+191412.25 (WD J0914 hereafter), a white dwarf likely accreting material from an ice giant planet, and WD 1856+534 b (WD 1856 b hereafter), a Jupiter-sized planet transiting a white dwarf, are the first direct evidence of giant planets orbiting white dwarfs. However, for both systems the observations indicate that the planets' current orbital distances would have put them inside the stellar envelope during the red giant phase, implying that the planets must have migrated to their current orbits after their host stars became white dwarfs. Furthermore, WD J0914 is a very hot white dwarf with a short cooling time that indicates a fast migration mechanism. Here, we demonstrate that the Eccentric Kozai-Lidov (EKL) Mechanism, combined with stellar evolution and tidal effects, can naturally produce the observed orbital configurations, assuming that the white dwarfs have distant stellar companions. Indeed, WD 1856 is part of a stellar triple system, being a distant companion to a stellar binary. We provide constraints for the orbital and physical characteristics for the potential stellar companion of WD J0914 and determine the initial orbital parameters of the WD 1856 system.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

Two Massive Jupiters in Eccentric Orbits from the TESS Full Frame Images

We report the discovery of two short-period massive giant planets from NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). Both systems, TOI-558 (TIC 207110080) and TOI-559 (TIC 209459275), were identified from the 30-minute cadence Full Frame Images and confirmed using ground-based photometric and spectroscopic follow-up observations from TESS's Follow-up Observing Program Working Group. We find that TOI-558 b, which transits an F-dwarf ($M_{*}=1.349^{+0.064}_{-0.065}\ M_{\odot}$, $R_{*}=1.496^{+0.042}_{-0.040}\ R_{\odot}$, $T_{eff}=6466^{+95}_{-93}\ K$, age $1.79^{+0.91}_{-0.73}\ Gyr$) with an orbital period of 14.574 days, has a mass of $3.61\pm0.15\ M_{\rm J}$, a radius of $1.086^{+0.041}_{-0.038}\ R_{\rm J}$, and an eccentric (e=$0.300^{+0.022}_{-0.020}$) orbit. TOI-559 b transits a G-dwarf ($M_{*}=1.026\pm0.057\ M_{\odot}$, $R_{*}=1.233^{+0.028}_{-0.026}\ R_{\odot}$, $T_{eff}=5925^{+85}_{-76}\ K$, age $6.8^{+2.5}_{-2.0}\ Gyr$) in an eccentric (e=$0.151\pm0.011$) 6.984-day orbit with a mass of $6.01^{+0.24}_{-0.23}\ M_{\rm J}$ and a radius of $1.091^{+0.028}_{-0.025}\ R_{\rm J}$. Our spectroscopic follow-up also reveals a long-term radial velocity trend for TOI-559, indicating a long-period companion. The statistically significant orbital eccentricity measured for each system suggests that these planets migrated to their current location through dynamical interactions. Interestingly, both planets are also massive ($>3\ M_{\rm J}$), adding to the population of massive giant planets identified by TESS. Prompted by these new detections of high-mass planets, we analyzed the known mass distribution of hot and warm Jupiters but find no significant evidence for multiple populations. TESS should provide a near magnitude-limited sample of transiting hot Jupiters, allowing for future detailed population studies.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

A Multi-Parameter Degeneracy in Microlensing Events with Extreme Finite Source Effects

For microlenses with sufficiently low mass, the angular radius of the source star can be much larger than the angular Einstein ring radius of the lens. For such extreme finite source effect (EFSE) events, finite source effects dominate throughout the duration of the event. Here, we demonstrate and explore a continuous degeneracy between multiple parameters of such EFSE events. The first component in the degeneracy arises from the fact that the directly-observable peak change of the flux depends on both the ratio of the angular source radius to the angular Einstein ring radius and the fraction of the baseline flux that is attributable to the lensed source star. The second component arises because the directly-observable duration of the event depends on both the impact parameter of the event and the relative lens-source proper motion. These two pairwise degeneracies become coupled when the detailed morphology of the light curve is considered, especially when including a limb-darkening profile of the source star. We derive these degeneracies mathematically through analytic approximations and investigate them further numerically with no approximations. We explore the likely physical situations in which these mathematical degeneracies may be realized and potentially broken. As more and more low-mass lensing events (with ever decreasing Einstein ring radii) are detected with improving precision and increasing cadence from microlensing surveys, one can expect that more of these EFSE events will be discovered. In particular, the detection of EFSE microlensing events could increase dramatically with the Roman Space Telescope Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

The TESS Mission Target Selection Procedure

We describe the target selection procedure by which stars are selected for 2-minute and 20-second observations by TESS. We first list the technical requirements of the TESS instrument and ground systems processing that limit the total number of target slots. We then describe algorithms used by the TESS Payload Operation Center (POC) to merge candidate targets requested by the various TESS mission elements (the Target Selection Working Group, TESS Asteroseismic Science Consortium, and Guest Investigator office). Lastly, we summarize the properties of the observed TESS targets over the two-year primary TESS mission. We find that the POC target selection algorithm results in 2.1 to 3.4 times as many observed targets as target slots allocated for each mission element. We also find that the sky distribution of observed targets is different from the sky distributions of candidate targets due to technical constraints that require a relatively even distribution of targets across the TESS fields of view. We caution researchers exploring statistical analyses of TESS planet-host stars that the population of observed targets cannot be characterized by any simple set of criteria applied to the properties of the input Candidate Target Lists.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2021

Extreme Precision Radial Velocity Working Group Final Report

Precise mass measurements of exoplanets discovered by the direct imaging or transit technique are required to determine planet bulk properties and potential habitability. Furthermore, it is generally acknowledged that, for the foreseeable future, the Extreme Precision Radial Velocity (EPRV) measurement technique is the only method potentially capable of detecting and measuring the masses and orbits of habitable-zone Earths orbiting nearby F, G, and K spectral-type stars from the ground. In particular, EPRV measurements with a precision of better than approximately 10 cm/s (with a few cm/s stability over many years) are required. Unfortunately, for nearly a decade, PRV instruments and surveys have been unable to routinely reach RV accuracies of less than roughly 1 m/s. Making EPRV science and technology development a critical component of both NASA and NSF program plans is crucial for reaching the goal of detecting potentially habitable Earthlike planets and supporting potential future exoplanet direct imaging missions such as the Habitable Exoplanet Observatory (HabEx) or the Large Ultraviolet Optical Infrared Surveyor (LUVOIR). In recognition of these facts, the 2018 National Academy of Sciences (NAS) Exoplanet Science Strategy (ESS) report recommended the development of EPRV measurements as a critical step toward the detection and characterization of habitable, Earth-analog planets. In response to the NAS-ESS recommendation, NASA and NSF commissioned the EPRV Working Group to recommend a ground-based program architecture and implementation plan to achieve the goal intended by the NAS. This report documents the activities, findings, and recommendations of the EPRV Working Group.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2021

Real-Time Likelihood-Free Inference of Roman Binary Microlensing Events with Amortized Neural Posterior Estimation

Fast and automated inference of binary-lens, single-source (2L1S) microlensing events with sampling-based Bayesian algorithms (e.g., Markov Chain Monte Carlo; MCMC) is challenged on two fronts: high computational cost of likelihood evaluations with microlensing simulation codes, and a pathological parameter space where the negative-log-likelihood surface can contain a multitude of local minima that are narrow and deep. Analysis of 2L1S events usually involves grid searches over some parameters to locate approximate solutions as a prerequisite to posterior sampling, an expensive process that often requires human-in-the-loop domain expertise. As the next-generation, space-based microlensing survey with the Roman Space Telescope is expected to yield thousands of binary microlensing events, a new fast and automated method is desirable. Here, we present a likelihood-free inference (LFI) approach named amortized neural posterior estimation, where a neural density estimator (NDE) learns a surrogate posterior $\hat{p}(θ|x)$ as an observation-parametrized conditional probability distribution, from pre-computed simulations over the full prior space. Trained on 291,012 simulated Roman-like 2L1S simulations, the NDE produces accurate and precise posteriors within seconds for any observation within the prior support without requiring a domain expert in the loop, thus allowing for real-time and automated inference. We show that the NDE also captures expected posterior degeneracies. The NDE posterior could then be refined into the exact posterior with a downstream MCMC sampler with minimal burn-in steps.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2021

Automating Inference of Binary Microlensing Events with Neural Density Estimation

Automated inference of binary microlensing events with traditional sampling-based algorithms such as MCMC has been hampered by the slowness of the physical forward model and the pathological likelihood surface. Current analysis of such events requires both expert knowledge and large-scale grid searches to locate the approximate solution as a prerequisite to MCMC posterior sampling. As the next generation, space-based microlensing survey with the Roman Space Observatory is expected to yield thousands of binary microlensing events, a new scalable and automated approach is desired. Here, we present an automated inference method based on neural density estimation (NDE). We show that the NDE trained on simulated Roman data not only produces fast, accurate, and precise posteriors but also captures expected posterior degeneracies. A hybrid NDE-MCMC framework can further be applied to produce the exact posterior.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2021

TESS Delivers Five New Hot Giant Planets Orbiting Bright Stars from the Full Frame Images

We present the discovery and characterization of five hot and warm Jupiters -- TOI-628 b (TIC 281408474; HD 288842), TOI-640 b (TIC 147977348), TOI-1333 b (TIC 395171208, BD+47 3521A), TOI-1478 b (TIC 409794137), and TOI-1601 b (TIC 139375960) -- based on data from NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). The five planets were identified from the full frame images and were confirmed through a series of photometric and spectroscopic follow-up observations by the $TESS$ Follow-up Observing Program (TFOP) Working Group. The planets are all Jovian size (R$_{\rm P}$ = 1.01-1.77 R$_{\rm J}$) and have masses that range from 0.85 to 6.33 M$_{\rm J}$. The host stars of these systems have F and G spectral types (5595 $\le$ T$_{\rm eff}$ $\le$ 6460 K) and are all relatively bright (9 $ 1.7R$_{\rm J}$, possibly a result of its host star's evolution) and resides on an orbit with a period longer than 5 days. TOI-628 b is the most massive hot Jupiter discovered to date by $TESS$ with a measured mass of $6.31^{+0.28}_{-0.30}$ M$_{\rm J}$ and a statistically significant, non-zero orbital eccentricity of e = $0.074^{+0.021}_{-0.022}$. This planet would not have had enough time to circularize through tidal forces from our analysis, suggesting that it might be remnant eccentricity from its migration. The longest period planet in this sample, TOI-1478 b (P = 10.18 days), is a warm Jupiter in a circular orbit around a near-Solar analogue. NASA's $TESS$ mission is continuing to increase the sample of well-characterized hot and warm Jupiters, complementing its primary mission goals.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

The Demographics of Wide-Separation Planets

I begin this review by first defining what is meant by exoplanet demographics, and then motivating why we would like as broad a picture of exoplanet demographics as possible. I then outline the methodology and pitfalls to measuring exoplanet demographics in practice. I next review the methods of detecting exoplanets, focusing on the ability of these methods to detect wide separation planets. For the purposes of this review, I define wide separation as separations beyond the 'snow line' of the protoplanetary disk, which is at roughly $\sim3$ au for a sunlike star. I note that this definition is somewhat arbitrary, and the practical boundary depends on the host star mass, planet mass and radius, and detection method. I review the approximate scaling relations for the signal-to-noise ratio for the detectability of exoplanets as a function of the relevant physical parameters, including the host star properties. I provide abroad overview of what has already been learned from the transit, radial velocity, direct imaging, and microlensing methods. I outline the challenges to synthesizing the demographics using different methods and discuss some preliminary first steps in this direction. Finally, I describe future prospects for providing a nearly complete statistical census of exoplanets.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

Analytic Estimates of the Achievable Precision on the Physical Properties of Transiting Planets Using Purely Empirical Measurements

We present analytic estimates of the fractional uncertainties on the mass, radius, surface gravity, and density of a transiting planet, using only empirical or semi-empirical measurements. We first express these parameters in terms of transit photometry and radial velocity (RV) observables, as well as the stellar radius $R_{\star}$, if required. In agreement with previous results, we find that, assuming a circular orbit, the surface gravity of the planet ($g_p$) depends only on empirical transit and RV parameters; namely, the planet period $P$, the transit depth $δ$, the RV semi-amplitude $K_{\star}$, the transit duration $T$, and the ingress/egress duration $τ$. However, the planet mass and density depend on all these quantities, plus $R_{\star}$. Thus, an inference about the planet mass, radius, and density must rely upon an external constraint such as the stellar radius. For bright stars, stellar radii can now be measured nearly empirically by using measurements of the stellar bolometric flux, the effective temperature, and the distance to the star via its parallax, with the extinction $A_V$ being the only free parameter. For any given system, there is a hierarchy of achievable precisions on the planetary parameters, such that the planetary surface gravity is more accurately measured than the density, which in turn is more accurately measured than the mass. We find that surface gravity provides a strong constraint on the core mass fraction of terrestrial planets. This is useful, given that the surface gravity may be one of the best measured properties of a terrestrial planet.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

Following up TESS Single Transits With Archival Photometry and Radial Velocities

NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission is expected to discover hundreds of planets via single transits first identified in their light curves. Determining the orbital period of these single transit candidates typically requires a significant amount of follow-up work to observe a second transit or measure a radial velocity orbit. In Yao et al. (2019), we developed simulations that demonstrated the ability to use archival photometric data in combination with TESS to "precover" the orbital period for these candidates with a precision of several minutes, assuming circular orbits. In this work, we incorporate updated models for TESS single transits, allowing for eccentric orbits, along with an updated methodology to improve the reliability of the results. Additionally, we explore how radial velocity (RV) observations can be used to follow up single transit events, using strategies distinct from those employed when the orbital period is known. We find that the use of an estimated period based on a circular orbit to schedule reconnaissance RV observations can efficiently distinguish eclipsing binaries from planets. For candidates that pass reconnaissance RV observations, we simulate RV monitoring campaigns that enable one to obtain an approximate orbital solution. We find this method can regularly determine the orbital periods for planets more massive than 0.5 M_J with orbital periods as long as 100 days.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

OGLE-2019-BLG-0960Lb: The Smallest Microlensing Planet

We report the analysis of OGLE-2019-BLG-0960, which contains the smallest mass-ratio microlensing planet found to date (q = 1.2--1.6 x 10^{-5} at 1-sigma). Although there is substantial uncertainty in the satellite parallax measured by Spitzer, the measurement of the annual parallax effect combined with the finite source effect allows us to determine the mass of the host star (M_L = 0.3--0.6 M_Sun), the mass of its planet (m_p = 1.4--3.1 M_Earth), the projected separation between the host and planet (a_perp = 1.2--2.3 au), and the distance to the lens system (D_L = 0.6--1.2 kpc). The lens is plausibly the blend, which could be checked with adaptive optics observations. As the smallest planet clearly below the break in the mass-ratio function (Suzuki et al. 2016; Jung et al. 2019), it demonstrates that current experiments are powerful enough to robustly measure the slope of the mass-ratio function below that break. We find that the cross-section for detecting small planets is maximized for planets with separations just outside of the boundary for resonant caustics and that sensitivity to such planets can be maximized by intensively monitoring events whenever they are magnified by a factor A > 5. Finally, an empirical investigation demonstrates that most planets showing a degeneracy between (s > 1) and (s < 1) solutions are not in the regime (|log s| >> 0) for which the "close"/"wide" degeneracy was derived. This investigation suggests a link between the "close"/"wide" and "inner/outer" degeneracies and also that the symmetry in the lens equation goes much deeper than symmetries uncovered for the limiting cases.

astro-ph.EP↗