arXiv subjects

B. Vrsnak

Publications and source records attributed to B. Vrsnak.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

A new method of measuring Forbush decreases

Forbush decreases (FDs) are short-term depressions in the galactic cosmic ray flux and one of the common signatures of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the heliosphere. They often show a two-step profile, the second one associated with the CMEs magnetic structure (flux rope, FR), which can be described by the recently developed model ForbMod. The aim of this study is to utilise ForbMod to develop a best-fit procedure to be applied on FR-related FDs as a convenient measurement tool. We develop a best-fit procedure that can be applied to a data series from an arbitrary detector. Thus, the basic procedure facilitates measurement estimation of the magnitude of the FR-related FD, with the possibility of being adapted for the energy response of a specific detector for a more advanced analysis. The non-linear fitting was performed by calculating all possible ForbMod curves constrained within the FR borders to the designated dataset and minimising the mean square error (MSE). In order to evaluate the performance of the ForbMod best-fit procedure, we used synthetic measurements produced by calculating the theoretical ForbMod curve for a specific example CME and then applying various effects to the data to mimic the imperfection of the real measurements. We also tested the ForbMod best-fit function on the real data, measured by detector F of the SOHO-EPHIN instrument on a sample containing 30 events, all of which have a distinct FD corresponding to the CMEs magnetic structure. Overall, we find that the ForbMod best-fit procedure performs similar to the traditional algorithm-based observational method, but with slightly smaller values for the FD amplitude, as it is taking into account the noise in the data. Furthermore, we find that the best-fit procedure has an advantage compared to the traditional method as it can estimate the FD amplitude even when there is a data gap at the onset of the FD.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Effects of coronal mass ejection orientation on its propagation in the heliosphere

Context. In the scope of space weather forecasting, it is crucial to be able to more reliably predict the arrival time, speed, and magnetic field configuration of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). From the time a CME is launched, the dominant factor influencing all of the above is the interaction of the interplanetary CME (ICME) with the ambient plasma and interplanetary magnetic field. Aims. Due to a generally anisotropic heliosphere, differently oriented ICMEs may interact differently with the ambient plasma and interplanetary magnetic field, even when the initial eruption conditions are similar. For this, we examined the possible link between the orientation of an ICME and its propagation in the heliosphere (up to 1 AU). Methods. We investigated 31 CME-ICME associations in the period from 1997 to 2018. The CME orientation in the near-Sun environment was determined using an ellipse-fitting technique applied to single-spacecraft data from SOHO/LASCO C2 and C3 coronagraphs. In the near-Earth environment, we obtained the orientation of the corresponding ICME using in situ plasma and magnetic field data. The shock orientation and nonradial flows in the sheath region for differently oriented ICMEs were investigated. In addition, we calculated the ICME transit time to Earth and drag parameter to probe the overall drag force for differently oriented ICMEs. The drag parameter was calculated using the reverse modeling procedure with the drag-based model. Results. We found a significant difference in nonradial flows for differently oriented ICMEs, whereas a significant difference in drag for differently oriented ICMEs was not found.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Coronal Hole Detection and Open Magnetic Flux

Many scientists use coronal hole (CH) detections to infer open magnetic flux. Detection techniques differ in the areas that they assign as open, and may obtain different values for the open magnetic flux. We characterize the uncertainties of these methods, by applying six different detection methods to deduce the area and open flux of a near-disk center CH observed on 9/19/2010, and applying a single method to five different EUV filtergrams for this CH. Open flux was calculated using five different magnetic maps. The standard deviation (interpreted as the uncertainty) in the open flux estimate for this CH was about 26%. However, including the variability of different magnetic data sources, this uncertainty almost doubles to 45%. We use two of the methods to characterize the area and open flux for all CHs in this time period. We find that the open flux is greatly underestimated compared to values inferred from in-situ measurements (by 2.2-4 times). We also test our detection techniques on simulated emission images from a thermodynamic MHD model of the solar corona. We find that the methods overestimate the area and open flux in the simulated CH, but the average error in the flux is only about 7%. The full-Sun detections on the simulated corona underestimate the model open flux, but by factors well below what is needed to account for the missing flux in the observations. Under-detection of open flux in coronal holes likely contributes to the recognized deficit in solar open flux, but is unlikely to resolve it.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Deriving CME density from remote sensing data and comparison to in-situ measurements

We determine the 3D geometry and deprojected mass of 29 well-observed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their interplanetary counterparts (ICMEs) using combined STEREO-SOHO white-light data. From the geometry parameters we calculate the volume of the CME for the magnetic ejecta (flux-rope type geometry) and sheath structure (shell-like geometry resembling the (I)CME frontal rim). Working under the assumption that the CME mass is roughly equally distributed within a specific volume, we expand the CME self-similarly and calculate the CME density for distances close to the Sun (15-30 Rs) and at 1AU. Specific trends are derived comparing calculated and in-situ measured proton densities at 1AU, though large uncertainties are revealed due to the unknown mass and geometry evolution: i) a moderate correlation for the magnetic structure having a mass that stays rather constant (~0.56-0.59), and ii) a weak correlation for the sheath density (~0.26) by assuming the sheath region is an extra mass - as expected for a mass pile-up process - that is in its amount comparable to the initial CME deprojected mass. High correlations are derived between in-situ measured sheath density and the solar wind density (~ -0.73) and solar wind speed (~0.56) as measured 24 hours ahead of the arrival of the disturbance. This gives additional confirmation that the sheath-plasma indeed stems from piled-up solar wind material. While the CME interplanetary propagation speed is not related to the sheath density, the size of the CME may play some role in how much material could be piled up.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

CME volume calculation from 3D GCS reconstruction

The mass evolution of a coronal mass ejection (CME) is an important parameter characterizing the drag force acting on a CME as it propagates through interplanetary space. Spacecraft measure in-situ plasma densities of CMEs during crossing events, but for investigating the mass evolution, we also need to know the CME geometry, more specific, its volume. Having derived the CME volume and mass from remote sensing data using 3D reconstructed CME geometry, we can calculate the CME density and compare it with in-situ proton density measurements near Earth. From that we may draw important conclusions on a possible mass increase as the CME interacts with the ambient solar wind in the heliosphere. In this paper we will describe in detail the method for deriving the CME volume using the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) model (Thernisien et al., 2006,2009, see Figure 1). We show that, assuming self-similar expansion, one can derive the volume of the CME from two GCS parameters and that it furthermore can be expressed as a function of distance.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2016

On the Propagation of a Geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection during March 15 -- 17, 2015

The largest geomagnetic storm so far in the solar cycle 24 was produced by a fast coronal mass ejection (CME) originating on 2015 March 15. It was an initially west-oriented CME and expected to only cause a weak geomagnetic disturbance. Why did this CME finally cause such a large geomagnetic storm? We try to find some clues by investigating its propagation from the Sun to 1 AU. First, we reconstruct the CME's kinematic properties in the corona from the SOHO and SDO imaging data with the aid of the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) model. It is suggested that the CME propagated to the west $\sim$$33^\circ$$\pm$$10^\circ$ away from the Sun-Earth line with a speed of about 817 km s$^{-1}$ before leaving the field of view of the SOHO/LASCO C3 camera. A magnetic cloud (MC) corresponding to this CME was measured in-situ by the Wind spacecraft two days later. By applying two MC reconstruction methods, we infer the configuration of the MC as well as some kinematic information, which implies that the CME possibly experienced an eastward deflection on its way to 1 AU. However, due to the lack of observations from the STEREO spacecraft, the CME's kinematic evolution in interplanetary space is not clear. In order to fill this gap, we utilize numerical MHD simulation, drag-based CME propagation model (DBM) and the model for CME deflection in interplanetary space (DIPS) to recover the propagation process, especially the trajectory, of the CME from $30 R_S$ to 1 AU. It is suggested that the trajectory of the CME was deflected toward the Earth by about $12^\circ$, consistent with the implication from the MC reconstruction at 1 AU. This eastward deflection probably contributed to the CME's unexpected geoeffectiveness by pushing the center of the initially west-oriented CME closer to the Earth.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2015

Real-time solar wind prediction based on SDO/AIA coronal hole data

We present an empirical model based on the visible area covered by coronal holes close to the central meridian in order to predict the solar wind speed at 1 AU with a lead time up to four days in advance with a 1hr time resolution. Linear prediction functions are used to relate coronal hole areas to solar wind speed. The function parameters are automatically adapted by using the information from the previous 3 Carrington Rotations. Thus the algorithm automatically reacts on the changes of the solar wind speed during different phases of the solar cycle. The adaptive algorithm has been applied to and tested on SDO/AIA-193A observations and ACE measurements during the years 2011-2013, covering 41 Carrington Rotations. The solar wind speed arrival time is delayed and needs on average 4.02 +/- 0.5 days to reach Earth. The algorithm produces good predictions for the 156 solar wind high speed streams peak amplitudes with correlation coefficients of cc~0.60. For 80% of the peaks, the predicted arrival matches within a time window of 0.5 days of the ACE in situ measurements. The same algorithm, using linear predictions, was also applied to predict the magnetic field strength from coronal hole areas but did not give reliable predictions (cc~0.2).

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2014

Combined Multipoint Remote and In Situ Observations of the Asymmetric Evolution of a Fast Solar Coronal Mass Ejection

We present an analysis of the fast coronal mass ejection (CME) of 2012 March 7, which was imaged by both STEREO spacecraft and observed in situ by MESSENGER, Venus Express, Wind and Mars Express. Based on detected arrivals at four different positions in interplanetary space, it was possible to strongly constrain the kinematics and the shape of the ejection. Using the white-light heliospheric imagery from STEREO-A and B, we derived two different kinematical profiles for the CME by applying the novel constrained self-similar expansion method. In addition, we used a drag-based model to investigate the influence of the ambient solar wind on the CME's propagation. We found that two preceding CMEs heading in different directions disturbed the overall shape of the CME and influenced its propagation behavior. While the Venus-directed segment underwent a gradual deceleration (from ~2700 km/s at 15 R_sun to ~1500 km/s at 154 R_sun), the Earth-directed part showed an abrupt retardation below 35 R_sun (from ~1700 to ~900 km/s). After that, it was propagating with a quasi-constant speed in the wake of a preceding event. Our results highlight the importance of studies concerning the unequal evolution of CMEs. Forecasting can only be improved if conditions in the solar wind are properly taken into account and if attention is also paid to large events preceding the one being studied.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2014

Asymmetry in the CME-CME interaction process for the events from 2011 February 14-15

We present a detailed study of the interaction process of two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) successively launched on 2011 February 14 (CME1) and 2011 February 15 (CME2). Reconstructing the 3D shape and evolution of the flux ropes we verify that the two CMEs interact. The frontal structure of both CMEs measured along different position angles (PA) over the entire latitudinal extent, reveals differences in the kinematics for the interacting flanks and the apexes. The interaction process is strongly PA-dependent in terms of timing as well as kinematical evolution. The central interaction occurs along PA-100°, which shows the strongest changes in kinematics. During interaction, CME1 accelerates from ~400 km/s to ~700 km/s and CME2 decelerates from ~1300 km/s to ~600 km/s. Our results indicate that a simplified scenario like inelastic collision may not be sufficient to describe the CME-CME interaction. Magnetic field structures of the intertwining flux ropes as well as momentum transfer due to shocks play an important role in the interaction process.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2014

The chaotic solar cycle II. Analysis of cosmogenic 10Be data

Context. The variations of solar activity over long time intervals using a solar activity reconstruction based on the cosmogenic radionuclide 10Be measured in polar ice cores are studied. Methods. By applying methods of nonlinear dynamics, the solar activity cycle is studied using solar activity proxies that have been reaching into the past for over 9300 years. The complexity of the system is expressed by several parameters of nonlinear dynamics, such as embedding dimension or false nearest neighbors, and the method of delay coordinates is applied to the time series. We also fit a damped random walk model, which accurately describes the variability of quasars, to the solar 10Be data and investigate the corresponding power spectral distribution. The periods in the data series were searched by the Fourier and wavelet analyses. The solar activity on the long-term scale is found to be on the edge of chaotic behavior. This can explain the observed intermittent period of longer lasting solar activity minima. Filtering the data by eliminating variations below a certain period (the periods of 380 yr and 57 yr were used) yields a far more regular behavior of solar activity. A comparison between the results for the 10Be data with the 14C data shows many similarities. Both cosmogenic isotopes are strongly correlated mutually and with solar activity. Finally, we find that a series of damped random walk models provides a good fit to the 10Be data with a fixed characteristic time scale of 1000 years, which is roughly consistent with the quasi-periods found by the Fourier and wavelet analyses.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2012

The Wave-Driver System of the Off-Disk Coronal Wave 17 January 2010

We study the 17 January 2010 flare-CME-wave event by using STEREO/SECCHI EUVI and COR1 data. The observational study is combined with an analytic model which simulates the evolution of the coronal-wave phenomenon associated with the event. From EUV observations, the wave signature appears to be dome shaped having a component propagating on the solar surface (v~280 km s-1) as well as off-disk (v~600 km s-1) away from the Sun. The off-disk dome of the wave consists of two enhancements in intensity, which conjointly develop and can be followed up to white-light coronagraph images. Applying an analytic model, we derive that these intensity variations belong to a wave-driver system with a weakly shocked wave, initially driven by expanding loops, which are indicative of the early evolution phase of the accompanying CME. We obtain the shock standoff distance between wave and driver from observations as well as from model results. The shock standoff distance close to the Sun (<0.3 Rs above the solar surface) is found to rapidly increase with values of ~0.03-0.09 Rs which give evidence of an initial lateral (over-)expansion of the CME. The kinematical evolution of the on-disk wave could be modeled using input parameters which require a more impulsive driver (t=90 s, a=1.7 km s-2) compared to the off-disk component (t=340 s, a=1.5 km s-2).

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2012

Impulsive acceleration of coronal mass ejections: II. Relation to SXR flares and filament eruptions

Using high time cadence images from the STEREO EUVI, COR1 and COR2 instruments, we derived detailed kinematics of the main acceleration stage for a sample of 95 CMEs in comparison with associated flares and filament eruptions. We found that CMEs associated with flares reveal on average significantly higher peak accelerations and lower acceleration phase durations, initiation heights and heights, at which they reach their peak velocities and peak accelerations. This means that CMEs that are associated with flares are characterized by higher and more impulsive accelerations and originate from lower in the corona where the magnetic field is stronger. For CMEs that are associated with filament eruptions we found only for the CME peak acceleration significantly lower values than for events which were not associated with filament eruptions. The flare rise time was found to be positively correlated with the CME acceleration duration, and negatively correlated with the CME peak acceleration. For the majority of the events the CME acceleration starts before the flare onset (for 75% of the events) and the CME accleration ends after the SXR peak time (for 77% of the events). In ~60% of the events, the time difference between the peak time of the flare SXR flux derivative and the peak time of the CME acceleration is smaller than \pm5 min, which hints at a feedback relationship between the CME acceleration and the energy release in the associated flare due to magnetic reconnection.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2011

Plasma diagnostics of an EIT wave observed by Hinode/EIS and SDO/AIA

We present plasma diagnostics of an EIT wave observed with high cadence in Hinode/EIS sit-and-stare spectroscopy and SDO/AIA imagery obtained during the HOP-180 observing campaign on 2011 February 16. At the propagating EIT wave front, we observe downward plasma flows in the EIS Fe XII, Fe XIII, and Fe XVI spectral lines (log T ~ 6.1-6.4) with line-of-sight (LOS) velocities up to 20 km/s. These red-shifts are followed by blue-shifts with upward velocities up to -5 km/s indicating relaxation of the plasma behind the wave front. During the wave evolution, the downward velocity pulse steepens from a few km/s up to 20 km/s and subsequently decays, correlated with the relative changes of the line intensities. The expected increase of the plasma densities at the EIT wave front estimated from the observed intensity increase lies within the noise level of our density diagnostics from EIS XIII 202/203 AA line ratios. No significant LOS plasma motions are observed in the He II line, suggesting that the wave pulse was not strong enough to perturb the underlying chromosphere. This is consistent with the finding that no Halpha Moreton wave was associated with the event. The EIT wave propagating along the EIS slit reveals a strong deceleration of a ~ -540 m/s2 and a start velocity of v0 ~ 590 km/s. These findings are consistent with the passage of a coronal fast-mode MHD wave, pushing the plasma downward and compressing it at the coronal base.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2011

Analysis of characteristic parameters of large-scale coronal waves observed by STEREO/EUVI

The kinematical evolution of four EUV waves, well observed by the Extreme UltraViolet Imager (EUVI) onboard the Solar-Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO), is studied by visually tracking the wave fronts as well as by a semiautomatized perturbation profile method leading to results matching each other within the error limits. The derived mean velocities of the events under study lie in the range of 220-350 km/s. The fastest of the events (May 19, 2007) reveals a significant deceleration of \approx -190 m s-2 while the others are consistent with a constant velocity during the wave propagation. The evolution of the maximum intensity values reveals initial intensification by 20 up to 70%, and decays to original levels within 40-60 min, while the width at half maximum and full maximum of the perturbation profiles are broadening by a factor of 2 - 4. The integral below the perturbation profile remains basically constant in two cases, while it shows a decrease by a factor of 3 - 4 in the other two cases. From the peak perturbation amplitudes we estimate the corresponding magnetosonic Mach numbers Mms which are in the range of 1.08-1.21. The perturbation profiles reveal three distinct features behind the propagating wave fronts: coronal dimmings, stationary brightenings and rarefaction regions. All of them appear after the wave passage and are only slowly fading away. Our findings indicate that the events under study are weak shock fast-mode MHD waves initiated by the CME lateral expansion.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2011

Case Study of Four Homologous Large-Scale Coronal Waves Observed on 2010 April 28 and 29

On 2010 April 28 and 29, the Solar TErrestrial Relations Observatory B/Extreme Ultraviolet Imager observed four homologous large-scale coronal waves, the so-called EIT-waves, within 8 hr. All waves emerged from the same source active region, were accompanied by weak flares and faint coronal mass ejections, and propagated into the same direction at constant velocities in the range of ~220-340 km s-1. The last of these four coronal wave events was the strongest and fastest, with a velocity of 337 +/- 31 km s-1 and a peak perturbation amplitude of ~1.24, corresponding to a magnetosonic Mach number of Mms ~ 1.09. The magnetosonic Mach numbers and velocities of the four waves are distinctly correlated, suggestive of the nonlinear fast-mode magnetosonic wave nature of the events. We also found a correlation between the magnetic energy buildup times and the velocity and magnetosonic Mach number.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2010

Multiwavelength imaging and spectroscopy of chromospheric evaporation in an M-class solar flare

We study spectroscopic observations of chromospheric evaporation mass flows in comparison to the energy input by electron beams derived from hard X-ray data for the white-light M2.5 flare of 2006 July 6. The event was captured in high cadence spectroscopic observing mode by SOHO/CDS combined with high-cadence imaging at various wavelengths in the visible, EUV and X-ray domain during the joint observing campaign JOP171. During the flare peak, we observe downflows in the He\,{\sc i} and O\,{\sc v} lines formed in the chromosphere and transition region, respectively, and simultaneous upflows in the hot coronal Si~{\sc xii} line. The energy deposition rate by electron beams derived from RHESSI hard X-ray observations is suggestive of explosive chromospheric evaporation, consistent with the observed plasma motions. However, for a later distinct X-ray burst, where the site of the strongest energy deposition is exactly located on the CDS slit, the situation is intriguing. The O\,{\sc v} transition region line spectra show the evolution of double components, indicative of the superposition of a stationary plasma volume and upflowing plasma elements with high velocities (up to 280~km~s$^{-1}$) in single CDS pixels on the flare ribbon. However, the energy input by electrons during this period is too small to drive explosive chromospheric evaporation. These unexpected findings indicate that the flaring transition region is much more dynamic, complex, and fine-structured than is captured in single-loop hydrodynamic simulations.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2010

First observations of a dome-shaped large-scale coronal EUV wave

We present first observations of a dome-shaped large-scale EUV coronal wave, recorded by the EUVI instrument onboard STEREO-B on January 17, 2010. The main arguments that the observed structure is the wave dome (and not the CME) are: a) the spherical form and sharpness of the dome's outer edge and the erupting CME loops observed inside the dome; b) the low-coronal wave signatures above the limb perfectly connecting to the on-disk signatures of the wave; c) the lateral extent of the expanding dome which is much larger than that of the coronal dimming; d) the associated high-frequency type II burst indicating shock formation low in the corona. The velocity of the upward expansion of the wave dome ($v \sim 650$ km s$^{-1}$) is larger than that of the lateral expansion of the wave ($v \sim 280$ km s$^{-1}$), indicating that the upward dome expansion is driven all the time, and thus depends on the CME speed, whereas in the lateral direction it is freely propagating after the CME lateral expansion stops. We also examine the evolution of the perturbation characteristics: First the perturbation profile steepens and the amplitude increases. Thereafter, the amplitude decreases with r$^{-2.5 \pm 0.3}$, the width broadens, and the integral below the perturbation remains constant. Our findings are consistent with the spherical expansion and decay of a weakly shocked fast-mode MHD wave.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2010

Combined STEREO/RHESSI study of CME acceleration and particle acceleration in solar flares

Using the potential of two unprecedented missions, STEREO and RHESSI, we study three well observed fast CMEs that occurred close to the limb together with their associated high energy flare emissions in terms of RHESSI HXR spectra and flux evolution. From STEREO/EUVI and STEREO/COR1 data the full CME kinematics of the impulsive acceleration phase up to 4 Rs is measured with a high time cadence of less equal 2.5 min. For deriving CME velocity and acceleration we apply and test a new algorithm based on regularization methods. The CME maximum acceleration is achieved at heights h < 0.4 Rs, the peak velocity at h < 2.1 Rs (in one case as small as 0.5 Rs). We find that the CME acceleration profile and the flare energy release as evidenced in the RHESSI hard X-ray flux evolve in a synchronized manner. These results support the standard flare/CME model which is characterized by a feed-back relationship between the large-scale CME acceleration process and the energy release in the associated flare.

astro-ph.SR↗