arXiv subjects

Babak Shahbaba

Publications and source records attributed to Babak Shahbaba.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Modeling Dynamic Functional Connectivity with Latent Factor Gaussian Processes

Dynamic functional connectivity, as measured by the time-varying covariance of neurological signals, is believed to play an important role in many aspects of cognition. While many methods have been proposed, reliably establishing the presence and characteristics of brain connectivity is challenging due to the high dimensionality and noisiness of neuroimaging data. We present a latent factor Gaussian process model which addresses these challenges by learning a parsimonious representation of connectivity dynamics. The proposed model naturally allows for inference and visualization of time-varying connectivity. As an illustration of the scientific utility of the model, application to a data set of rat local field potential activity recorded during a complex non-spatial memory task provides evidence of stimuli differentiation.

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arXiv2019

Deep Markov Chain Monte Carlo

We propose a new computationally efficient sampling scheme for Bayesian inference involving high dimensional probability distributions. Our method maps the original parameter space into a low-dimensional latent space, explores the latent space to generate samples, and maps these samples back to the original space for inference. While our method can be used in conjunction with any dimension reduction technique to obtain the latent space, and any standard sampling algorithm to explore the low-dimensional space, here we specifically use a combination of auto-encoders (for dimensionality reduction) and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC, for sampling). To this end, we first run an HMC to generate some initial samples from the original parameter space, and then use these samples to train an auto-encoder. Next, starting with an initial state, we use the encoding part of the autoencoder to map the initial state to a point in the low-dimensional latent space. Using another HMC, this point is then treated as an initial state in the latent space to generate a new state, which is then mapped to the original space using the decoding part of the auto-encoder. The resulting point can be treated as a Metropolis-Hasting (MH) proposal, which is either accepted or rejected. While the induced dynamics in the parameter space is no longer Hamiltonian, it remains time reversible, and the Markov chain could still converge to the canonical distribution using a volume correction term. Dropping the volume correction step results in convergence to an approximate but reasonably accurate distribution. The empirical results based on several high-dimensional problems show that our method could substantially reduce the computational cost of Bayesian inference.

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arXiv2019

Bayesian Neural Decoding Using A Diversity-Encouraging Latent Representation Learning Method

It is well established that temporal organization is critical to memory, and that the ability to temporally organize information is fundamental to many perceptual, cognitive, and motor processes. While our understanding of how the brain processes the spatial context of memories has advanced considerably, our understanding of their temporal organization lags far behind. In this paper, we propose a new approach for elucidating the neural basis of complex behaviors and temporal organization of memories. More specifically, we focus on neural decoding - the prediction of behavioral or experimental conditions based on observed neural data. In general, this is a challenging classification problem, which is of immense interest in neuroscience. Our goal is to develop a new framework that not only improves the overall accuracy of decoding, but also provides a clear latent representation of the decoding process. To accomplish this, our approach uses a Variational Auto-encoder (VAE) model with a diversity-encouraging prior based on determinantal point processes (DPP) to improve latent representation learning by avoiding redundancy in the latent space. We apply our method to data collected from a novel rat experiment that involves presenting repeated sequences of odors at a single port and testing the rats' ability to identify each odor. We show that our method leads to substantially higher accuracy rate for neural decoding and allows to discover novel biological phenomena by providing a clear latent representation of the decoding process.

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arXiv2019

Flexible Bayesian Dynamic Modeling of Correlation and Covariance Matrices

Modeling correlation (and covariance) matrices can be challenging due to the positive-definiteness constraint and potential high-dimensionality. Our approach is to decompose the covariance matrix into the correlation and variance matrices and propose a novel Bayesian framework based on modeling the correlations as products of unit vectors. By specifying a wide range of distributions on a sphere (e.g. the squared-Dirichlet distribution), the proposed approach induces flexible prior distributions for covariance matrices (that go beyond the commonly used inverse-Wishart prior). For modeling real-life spatio-temporal processes with complex dependence structures, we extend our method to dynamic cases and introduce unit-vector Gaussian process priors in order to capture the evolution of correlation among components of a multivariate time series. To handle the intractability of the resulting posterior, we introduce the adaptive $Δ$-Spherical Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We demonstrate the validity and flexibility of our proposed framework in a simulation study of periodic processes and an analysis of rat's local field potential activity in a complex sequence memory task.

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arXiv2018

Neural Network Gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo is a widely used algorithm for sampling from posterior distributions of complex Bayesian models. It can efficiently explore high-dimensional parameter spaces guided by simulated Hamiltonian flows. However, the algorithm requires repeated gradient calculations, and these computations become increasingly burdensome as data sets scale. We present a method to substantially reduce the computation burden by using a neural network to approximate the gradient. First, we prove that the proposed method still maintains convergence to the true distribution though the approximated gradient no longer comes from a Hamiltonian system. Second, we conduct experiments on synthetic examples and real data sets to validate the proposed method.

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arXiv2018

Modeling Binary Time Series Using Gaussian Processes with Application to Predicting Sleep States

Motivated by the problem of predicting sleep states, we develop a mixed effects model for binary time series with a stochastic component represented by a Gaussian process. The fixed component captures the effects of covariates on the binary-valued response. The Gaussian process captures the residual variations in the binary response that are not explained by covariates and past realizations. We develop a frequentist modeling framework that provides efficient inference and more accurate predictions. Results demonstrate the advantages of improved prediction rates over existing approaches such as logistic regression, generalized additive mixed model, models for ordinal data, gradient boosting, decision tree and random forest. Using our proposed model, we show that previous sleep state and heart rates are significant predictors for future sleep states. Simulation studies also show that our proposed method is promising and robust. To handle computational complexity, we utilize Laplace approximation, golden section search and successive parabolic interpolation. With this paper, we also submit an R-package (HIBITS) that implements the proposed procedure.

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arXiv2018

Evolutionary State-Space Model and Its Application to Time-Frequency Analysis of Local Field Potentials

We propose an evolutionary state space model (E-SSM) for analyzing high dimensional brain signals whose statistical properties evolve over the course of a non-spatial memory experiment. Under E-SSM, brain signals are modeled as mixtures of components (e.g., AR(2) process) with oscillatory activity at pre-defined frequency bands. To account for the potential non-stationarity of these components (since the brain responses could vary throughout the entire experiment), the parameters are allowed to vary over epochs. Compared with classical approaches such as independent component analysis and filtering, the proposed method accounts for the entire temporal correlation of the components and accommodates non-stationarity. For inference purpose, we propose a novel computational algorithm based upon using Kalman smoother, maximum likelihood and blocked resampling. The E-SSM model is applied to simulation studies and an application to a multi-epoch local field potentials (LFP) signal data collected from a non-spatial (olfactory) sequence memory task study. The results confirm that our method captures the evolution of the power for different components across different phases in the experiment and identifies clusters of electrodes that behave similarly with respect to the decomposition of different sources. These findings suggest that the activity of different electrodes does change over the course of an experiment in practice, treating these epoch recordings as realizations of an identical process could lead to misleading results. In summary, the proposed method underscores the importance of capturing the evolution in brain responses over the study period.

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arXiv2018

A Flexible Joint Longitudinal-Survival Modeling Framework for Incorporating Multiple Longitudinal Biomarkers

We are interested in survival analysis of hemodialysis patients for whom several biomarkers are recorded over time. Motivated by this challenging problem, we propose a general framework for multivariate joint longitudinal-survival modeling that can be used to examine the association between several longitudinally recorded covariates and a time-to-event endpoint. Our method allows for simultaneous modeling of longitudinal covariates by taking their correlation into account. This leads to a more efficient method for modeling their trajectories over time, and hence, it can better capture their relationship to the survival outcomes.

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arXiv2018

A Flexible Joint Longitudinal-Survival Model for Analysis of End-Stage Renal Disease Data

We propose a flexible joint longitudinal-survival framework to examine the association between longitudinally collected biomarkers and a time-to-event endpoint. More specifically, we use our method for analyzing the survival outcome of end-stage renal disease patients with time-varying serum albumin measurements. Our proposed method is robust to common parametric assumptions in that it avoids explicit distributional assumptions on longitudinal measures and allows for subject-specific baseline hazard in the survival component. Fully joint estimation is performed to account for the uncertainty in the estimated longitudinal biomarkers included in the survival model.

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arXiv2018

A Bayesian Framework for Non-Collapsible Models

In this paper, we discuss the non-collapsibility concept and propose a new approach based on Dirichlet process mixtures to estimate the conditional effect of covariates in non-collapsible models. Using synthetic data, we evaluate the performance of our proposed method and examine its sensitivity under different settings. We also apply our method to real data on access failure among hemodialysis patients.

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arXiv2017

The nonparametric Fisher geometry and the chi-square process density prior

It is well known that the Fisher information induces a Riemannian geometry on parametric families of probability density functions. Following recent work, we consider the nonparametric generalization of the Fisher geometry. The resulting nonparametric Fisher geometry is shown to be equivalent to a familiar, albeit infinite-dimensional, geometric object---the sphere. By shifting focus away from density functions and toward \emph{square-root} density functions, one may calculate theoretical quantities of interest with ease. More importantly, the sphere of square-root densities is much more computationally tractable. This insight leads to a novel Bayesian nonparametric density estimation model. We construct the $χ^2$-process density prior by modeling the square-root density with a restricted Gaussian process prior. Inference over square-root densities is fast, and the model retains the flexibility characteristic of Bayesian nonparametric models. Finally, we formalize the relationship between spherical HMC in the infinite-dimensional limit and standard Riemannian HMC.

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arXiv2017

Precomputing Strategy for Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Method Based on Regularity in Parameter Space

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms play an important role in statistical inference problems dealing with intractable probability distributions. Recently, many MCMC algorithms such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and Riemannian Manifold HMC have been proposed to provide distant proposals with high acceptance rate. These algorithms, however, tend to be computationally intensive which could limit their usefulness, especially for big data problems due to repetitive evaluations of functions and statistical quantities that depend on the data. This issue occurs in many statistic computing problems. In this paper, we propose a novel strategy that exploits smoothness (regularity) of parameter space to improve computational efficiency of MCMC algorithms. When evaluation of functions or statistical quantities are needed at a point in parameter space, interpolation from precomputed values or previous computed values is used. More specifically, we focus on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithms that use geometric information for faster exploration of probability distributions. Our proposed method is based on precomputing the required geometric information on a set of grids before running sampling information at nearby grids at each iteration of HMC. Sparse grid interpolation method is used for high dimensional problems. Tests on computational examples are shown to illustrate the advantages of our method.

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arXiv2017

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Acceleration Using Surrogate Functions with Random Bases

For big data analysis, high computational cost for Bayesian methods often limits their applications in practice. In recent years, there have been many attempts to improve computational efficiency of Bayesian inference. Here we propose an efficient and scalable computational technique for a state-of-the-art Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, namely, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). The key idea is to explore and exploit the structure and regularity in parameter space for the underlying probabilistic model to construct an effective approximation of its geometric properties. To this end, we build a surrogate function to approximate the target distribution using properly chosen random bases and an efficient optimization process. The resulting method provides a flexible, scalable, and efficient sampling algorithm, which converges to the correct target distribution. We show that by choosing the basis functions and optimization process differently, our method can be related to other approaches for the construction of surrogate functions such as generalized additive models or Gaussian process models. Experiments based on simulated and real data show that our approach leads to substantially more efficient sampling algorithms compared to existing state-of-the art methods.

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arXiv2017

Variational Hamiltonian Monte Carlo via Score Matching

Traditionally, the field of computational Bayesian statistics has been divided into two main subfields: variational methods and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). In recent years, however, several methods have been proposed based on combining variational Bayesian inference and MCMC simulation in order to improve their overall accuracy and computational efficiency. This marriage of fast evaluation and flexible approximation provides a promising means of designing scalable Bayesian inference methods. In this paper, we explore the possibility of incorporating variational approximation into a state-of-the-art MCMC method, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), to reduce the required gradient computation in the simulation of Hamiltonian flow, which is the bottleneck for many applications of HMC in big data problems. To this end, we use a {\it free-form} approximation induced by a fast and flexible surrogate function based on single-hidden layer feedforward neural networks. The surrogate provides sufficiently accurate approximation while allowing for fast exploration of parameter space, resulting in an efficient approximate inference algorithm. We demonstrate the advantages of our method on both synthetic and real data problems.

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arXiv2016

Geodesic Lagrangian Monte Carlo over the space of positive definite matrices: with application to Bayesian spectral density estimation

We extend the application of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo to allow for sampling from probability distributions defined over symmetric or Hermitian positive definite matrices. To do so, we exploit the Riemannian structure induced by Cartan's century-old canonical metric. The geodesics that correspond to this metric are available in closed-form and---within the context of Lagrangian Monte Carlo---provide a principled way to travel around the space of positive definite matrices. Our method improves Bayesian inference on such matrices by allowing for a broad range of priors, so we are not limited to conjugate priors only. In the context of spectral density estimation, we use the (non-conjugate) complex reference prior as an example modeling option made available by the algorithm. Results based on simulated and real-world multivariate time series are presented in this context, and future directions are outlined.

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arXiv2016

Bayesian Inference on Matrix Manifolds for Linear Dimensionality Reduction

We reframe linear dimensionality reduction as a problem of Bayesian inference on matrix manifolds. This natural paradigm extends the Bayesian framework to dimensionality reduction tasks in higher dimensions with simpler models at greater speeds. Here an orthogonal basis is treated as a single point on a manifold and is associated with a linear subspace on which observations vary maximally. Throughout this paper, we employ the Grassmann and Stiefel manifolds for various dimensionality reduction problems, explore the connection between the two manifolds, and use Hybrid Monte Carlo for posterior sampling on the Grassmannian for the first time. We delineate in which situations either manifold should be considered. Further, matrix manifold models are used to yield scientific insight in the context of cognitive neuroscience, and we conclude that our methods are suitable for basic inference as well as accurate prediction.

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arXiv2015

A Geometric View of Posterior Approximation

Although Bayesian methods are robust and principled, their application in practice could be limited since they typically rely on computationally intensive Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms for their implementation. One possible solution is to find a fast approximation of posterior distribution and use it for statistical inference. For commonly used approximation methods, such as Laplace and variational free energy, the objective is mainly defined in terms of computational convenience as opposed to a true distance measure between the target and approximating distributions. In this paper, we provide a geometric view of posterior approximation based on a valid distance measure derived from ambient Fisher geometry. Our proposed framework is easily generalizable and can inspire a new class of methods for approximate Bayesian inference.

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arXiv2015

Sampling constrained probability distributions using Spherical Augmentation

Statistical models with constrained probability distributions are abundant in machine learning. Some examples include regression models with norm constraints (e.g., Lasso), probit, many copula models, and latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA). Bayesian inference involving probability distributions confined to constrained domains could be quite challenging for commonly used sampling algorithms. In this paper, we propose a novel augmentation technique that handles a wide range of constraints by mapping the constrained domain to a sphere in the augmented space. By moving freely on the surface of this sphere, sampling algorithms handle constraints implicitly and generate proposals that remain within boundaries when mapped back to the original space. Our proposed method, called {Spherical Augmentation}, provides a mathematically natural and computationally efficient framework for sampling from constrained probability distributions. We show the advantages of our method over state-of-the-art sampling algorithms, such as exact Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, using several examples including truncated Gaussian distributions, Bayesian Lasso, Bayesian bridge regression, reconstruction of quantized stationary Gaussian process, and LDA for topic modeling.

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