arXiv subjects

Bahar Taşkesen

Publications and source records attributed to Bahar Taşkesen.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A Mathematical Theory of Understanding

Generative AI has transformed the economics of information production, making explanations, proofs, examples, and analyses available at very low cost. Yet the value of information still depends on whether downstream users can absorb and act on it. A signal conveys meaning only to a learner with the structural capacity to decode it: an explanation that clarifies a concept for one user may be indistinguishable from noise to another who lacks the relevant prerequisites. This paper develops a mathematical model of that learner-side bottleneck. We model the learner as a mind, an abstract learning system characterized by a prerequisite structure over concepts. A mind may represent a human learner, an artificial learner such as a neural network, or any agent whose ability to interpret signals depends on previously acquired concepts. Teaching is modeled as sequential communication with a latent target. Because instructional signals are usable only when the learner has acquired the prerequisites needed to parse them, the effective communication channel depends on the learner's current state of knowledge and becomes more informative as learning progresses. The model yields two limits on the speed of learning and adoption: a structural limit determined by prerequisite reachability and an epistemic limit determined by uncertainty about the target. The framework implies threshold effects in training and capability acquisition. When the teaching horizon lies below the prerequisite depth of the target, additional instruction cannot produce successful completion of teaching; once that depth is reached, completion becomes feasible. Across heterogeneous learners, a common broadcast curriculum can be slower than personalized instruction by a factor linear in the number of learner types.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Statistical Equilibrium of Optimistic Beliefs

We study finite normal-form games in which payoffs are subject to random perturbations and players face uncertainty about how these shocks co-move across actions, an ambiguity that naturally arises when only realized (not counterfactual) payoffs are observed. We introduce the Statistical Equilibrium of Optimistic Beliefs (SE-OB), inspired by discrete choice theory. We model players as \textit{optimistic better responders}: they face ambiguity about the dependence structure (copula) of payoff perturbations across actions and resolve this ambiguity by selecting, from a belief set, the joint distribution that maximizes the expected value of the best perturbed payoff. Given this optimistic belief, players choose actions according to the induced random-utility choice rule. We define SE-OB as a fixed point of this two-step response mapping. SE-OB generalizes the Nash equilibrium and the structural quantal response equilibrium. We establish existence under standard regularity conditions on belief sets. For the economically important class of marginal belief sets, that is, the set of all joint distributions with fixed action-wise marginals, optimistic belief selection reduces to an optimal coupling problem, and SE-OB admits a characterization via Nash equilibrium of a smooth regularized game, yielding tractability and enabling computation. We characterize the relationship between SE-OB and existing equilibrium notions and illustrate its empirical relevance in simulations, where it captures systematic violations of independence of irrelevant alternatives that standard logit-based models fail to explain.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2025

Optimality of Linear Policies in Distributionally Robust Linear Quadratic Control

We study a generalization of the classical discrete-time, Linear-Quadratic-Gaussian (LQG) control problem where the noise distributions affecting the states and observations are unknown and chosen adversarially from divergence-based ambiguity sets centered around a known nominal distribution. For a finite horizon model with Gaussian nominal noise and a structural assumption on the divergence that is satisfied by many examples -- including 2-Wasserstein distance, Kullback-Leibler divergence, moment-based divergences, entropy-regularized optimal transport, or Fisher (score-matching) divergence -- we prove that a control policy that is affine in the observations is optimal and the adversary's corresponding worst-case optimal distribution is Gaussian. When the nominal means are zero (as in the classical LQG model), we show that the adversary should optimally set the distribution's mean to zero and the optimal control policy becomes linear. Moreover, the adversary should optimally ``inflate" the noise by choosing covariance matrices that dominate the nominal covariance in Loewner order. Exploiting these structural properties, we develop a Frank-Wolfe algorithm whose inner step solves standard LQG subproblems via Kalman filtering and dynamic programming and show that the implementation consistently outperforms semidefinite-programming reformulations of the problem. All structural and algorithmic results extend to an infinite-horizon, average-cost formulation, yielding stationary linear policies and a time-invariant Gaussian distribution for the adversary. Lastly, we show that when the divergence is 2-Wasserstein, the entire framework remains valid when the nominal distributions are elliptical rather than Gaussian.

math.OC↗

arXiv2025

Optimism in the Face of Ambiguity Principle for Multi-Armed Bandits

Follow-The-Regularized-Leader (FTRL) algorithms often enjoy optimal regret for adversarial as well as stochastic bandit problems and allow for a streamlined analysis. Nonetheless, FTRL algorithms require the solution of an optimization problem in every iteration and are thus computationally challenging. In contrast, Follow-The-Perturbed-Leader (FTPL) algorithms achieve computational efficiency by perturbing the estimates of the rewards of the arms, but their regret analysis is cumbersome. We propose a new FTPL algorithm that generates optimal policies for both adversarial and stochastic multi-armed bandits. Like FTRL, our algorithm admits a unified regret analysis, and similar to FTPL, it offers low computational costs. Unlike existing FTPL algorithms that rely on independent additive disturbances governed by a \textit{known} distribution, we allow for disturbances governed by an \textit{ambiguous} distribution that is only known to belong to a given set and propose a principle of optimism in the face of ambiguity. Consequently, our framework generalizes existing FTPL algorithms. It also encapsulates a broad range of FTRL methods as special cases, including several optimal ones, which appears to be impossible with current FTPL methods. Finally, we use techniques from discrete choice theory to devise an efficient bisection algorithm for computing the optimistic arm sampling probabilities. This algorithm is up to $10^4$ times faster than standard FTRL algorithms that solve an optimization problem in every iteration. Our results not only settle existing conjectures but also provide new insights into the impact of perturbations by mapping FTRL to FTPL.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Distributionally Robust Linear Quadratic Control

Linear-Quadratic-Gaussian (LQG) control is a fundamental control paradigm that is studied in various fields such as engineering, computer science, economics, and neuroscience. It involves controlling a system with linear dynamics and imperfect observations, subject to additive noise, with the goal of minimizing a quadratic cost function for the state and control variables. In this work, we consider a generalization of the discrete-time, finite-horizon LQG problem, where the noise distributions are unknown and belong to Wasserstein ambiguity sets centered at nominal (Gaussian) distributions. The objective is to minimize a worst-case cost across all distributions in the ambiguity set, including non-Gaussian distributions. Despite the added complexity, we prove that a control policy that is linear in the observations is optimal for this problem, as in the classic LQG problem. We propose a numerical solution method that efficiently characterizes this optimal control policy. Our method uses the Frank-Wolfe algorithm to identify the least-favorable distributions within the Wasserstein ambiguity sets and computes the controller's optimal policy using Kalman filter estimation under these distributions.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

Discrete Optimal Transport with Independent Marginals is #P-Hard

We study the computational complexity of the optimal transport problem that evaluates the Wasserstein distance between the distributions of two K-dimensional discrete random vectors. The best known algorithms for this problem run in polynomial time in the maximum of the number of atoms of the two distributions. However, if the components of either random vector are independent, then this number can be exponential in K even though the size of the problem description scales linearly with K. We prove that the described optimal transport problem is #P-hard even if all components of the first random vector are independent uniform Bernoulli random variables, while the second random vector has merely two atoms, and even if only approximate solutions are sought. We also develop a dynamic programming-type algorithm that approximates the Wasserstein distance in pseudo-polynomial time when the components of the first random vector follow arbitrary independent discrete distributions, and we identify special problem instances that can be solved exactly in strongly polynomial time.

math.OC↗