arXiv subjects

Bahram Alidaee

Publications and source records attributed to Bahram Alidaee.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Energy Market and Carbon Emission Spillovers in Critical Minerals Investment: A Dynamic Connectedness Approach

Design/methodology/approach A time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model is employed to quantify dynamic connectedness and directional volatility spillovers using daily data from May 1, 2013, to May 2, 2023. The study isolates the impact of extreme events by splitting the data into pre- and post-COVID-19 samples based on the February 2020 stock market crash. Purpose This paper examines the daily financial risk spillovers associated with investing in critical minerals. It examines the dynamic interconnectedness between seven critical mineral Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) portfolios and key economic-wide variables, including the energy market, carbon emissions, market sentiment, and global infrastructure. Findings Portfolios with high Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) scores significantly contribute to shock spillovers. Net directional connectedness analysis reveals that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and carbon emission futures consistently act as "net receivers," absorbing volatility from the system. Conversely, Cobalt and Aluminum ETFs primarily act as "net givers," transmitting volatility. The pandemic caused significant structural shifts in these transmission roles. Practical implications The identification of specific net givers and receivers provides actionable insights for investors, facilitating better hedging strategies against time-varying structural breaks and broader economic shocks. Originality This study uniquely utilizes financial ETF data rather than physical mineral prices to capture accessible investment risks. It is among the first to link ESG scores to the directional role (giver vs. receiver) of critical mineral assets within a broader macro-financial network.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2026

Dynamic Risk in the U.S. Banking System: An Analysis of Sentiment, Policy Shocks, and Spillover Effects

The 2023 U.S. banking crisis propagated not through direct financial linkages but through a high-frequency, information-based contagion channel. This paper moves beyond exploration analysis to test the "too-similar-to-fail" hypothesis, arguing that risk spillovers were driven by perceived similarities in bank business models under acute interest rate pressure. Employing a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model with 30-day rolling windows, a method uniquely suited for capturing the rapid network shifts inherent in a panic, we analyze daily stock returns for the four failed institutions and a systematically selected peer group of surviving banks vulnerable to the same risks from March 18, 2022, to March 15, 2023. Our results provide strong evidence for this contagion channel: total system connectedness surged dramatically during the crisis peak, and we identify SIVB, FRC, and WAL as primary net transmitters of risk while their perceived peers became significant net receivers, a key dynamic indicator of systemic vulnerability that cannot be captured by asset-by-asset analysis. We further demonstrate that these spillovers were significantly amplified by market sentiment (as measured by the VIX) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU). By providing a clear conceptual framework and robust empirical validation, our findings confirm the persistence of systemic risks within the banking network and highlight the importance of real-time monitoring in strengthening financial stability.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2025

A Heuristic Framework of Variable Neighborhood Descent Methods for the Large-Scale Multi-Level Facility Location Problem in Supply Chain Networks

This paper addresses the single-assignment, uncapacitated, multi-level facility location (MFL) problem, a strategic decision-making process critical to the design of long-term supply chain networks. Specifically, we examine four- and five-level facility location structures (k-LFL), modeled as a location-allocation problem where demand nodes must be assigned to open facilities across hierarchical levels. Although the MFL has been addressed in the literature, solutions to large-scale, realistic problems involving thousands of nodes are lacking. This paper proposes a heuristic framework based on the Variable Neighborhood Descent (VND) metaheuristic with a multi-start strategy. We develop and compare four variants: Basic Variable Neighborhood Descent (BVND), Pipe Variable Neighborhood Descent (PVND), Cyclic Variable Neighborhood Descent (CVND), and Union Variable Neighborhood Descent (UVND). In each case, a multi-start strategy with strong diversification components is employed. Extensive computational experiments compare the methods on large-scale instances involving up to 10,000 customers, 150 distribution centers, 50 warehouses, and 30 plants. Each algorithm settled into a unique, statistically significant computational time when solving these problems. Sensitivity analyses, supported by non-parametric statistical methods, validate the effectiveness of the proposed heuristic framework.

math.OC↗

arXiv2025

Renewable Energy Prediction: A Comparative Study of Deep Learning Models for Complex Dataset Analysis

The increasing focus on predicting renewable energy production aligns with advancements in deep learning (DL). The inherent variability of renewable sources and the complexity of prediction methods require robust approaches, such as DL models, in the renewable energy sector. DL models are preferred over traditional machine learning (ML) because they capture complex, nonlinear relationships in renewable energy datasets. This study examines key factors influencing DL technique accuracy, including sampling and hyperparameter optimization, by comparing various methods and training and test ratios within a DL framework. Seven machine learning methods, LSTM, Stacked LSTM, CNN, CNN-LSTM, DNN, Time-Distributed MLP (TD-MLP), and Autoencoder (AE), are evaluated using a dataset combining weather and photovoltaic power output data from 12 locations. Regularization techniques such as early stopping, neuron dropout, L1 and L2 regularization are applied to address overfitting. The results demonstrate that the combination of early stopping, dropout, and L1 regularization provides the best performance to reduce overfitting in the CNN and TD-MLP models with larger training set, while the combination of early stopping, dropout, and L2 regularization is the most effective to reduce the overfitting in CNN-LSTM and AE models with smaller training set.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Efficient Local and Tabu Search Strategies for Large-Scale Quadratic Integer Programming

This study investigates the area of general quadratic integer programming (QIP), encompassing both unconstrained (UQIP) and constrained (CQIP) variants. These NP-hard problems have far-reaching applications, yet the non-convex cases have received limited attention in the literature. To address this gap, we introduce a closed-form formula for single-variable changes, establishing novel necessary and sufficient conditions for 1-Opt local improvement in UQIP and CQIP. We develop a simple local and sophisticated tabu search with an oscillation strategy tailored for large-scale problems. Experimental results on instances with up to 8000 variables demonstrate the efficiency of these strategies, producing high-quality solutions within a short time. Our approaches significantly outperform the Gurobi 11.0.2 solver.

cs.DM↗

arXiv2024

Hybrid Heuristic Algorithms for Adiabatic Quantum Machine Learning Models

Numerous established machine learning models and various neural network architectures can be restructured as Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) problems. A significant challenge in Adiabatic Quantum Machine Learning (AQML) is the computational demand of the training phase. To mitigate this, approximation techniques inspired by quantum annealing, like Simulated Annealing and Multiple Start Tabu Search (MSTS), have been employed to expedite QUBO-based AQML training. This paper introduces a novel hybrid algorithm that incorporates an "r-flip" strategy. This strategy is aimed at solving large-scale QUBO problems more effectively, offering better solution quality and lower computational costs compared to existing MSTS methods. The r-flip approach has practical applications in diverse fields, including cross-docking, supply chain management, machine scheduling, and fraud detection. The paper details extensive computational experiments comparing this r-flip enhanced hybrid heuristic against a standard MSTS approach. These tests utilize both standard benchmark problems and three particularly large QUBO instances. The results indicate that the r-flip enhanced method consistently produces high-quality solutions efficiently, operating within practical time constraints.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2024

Enhancing supply chain security with automated machine learning

The increasing scale and complexity of global supply chains have led to new challenges spanning various fields, such as supply chain disruptions due to long waiting lines at the ports, material shortages, and inflation. Coupled with the size of supply chains and the availability of vast amounts of data, efforts towards tackling such challenges have led to an increasing interest in applying machine learning methods in many aspects of supply chains. Unlike other solutions, ML techniques, including Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and Neural Networks, make predictions and approximate optimal solutions faster. This paper presents an automated ML framework to enhance supply chain security by detecting fraudulent activities, predicting maintenance needs, and forecasting material backorders. Using datasets of varying sizes, results show that fraud detection achieves an 88% accuracy rate using sampling methods, machine failure prediction reaches 93.4% accuracy, and material backorder prediction achieves 89.3% accuracy. Hyperparameter tuning significantly improved the performance of these models, with certain supervised techniques like XGBoost and LightGBM reaching up to 100% precision. This research contributes to supply chain security by streamlining data preprocessing, feature selection, model optimization, and inference deployment, addressing critical challenges and boosting operational efficiency.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Multilevel Facility Location Optimization: A Novel Integer Programming Formulation and Approaches to Heuristic Solutions

We attack the 4-level facility location problem (4L-FLP), a critical component in supply chains. Foundational tasks here involve selecting markets, plants, warehouses, and distribution centers to maximize profits while considering related constraints. Based on a variation of the quadratic assignment problem, we propose a novel integer programming formula that significantly reduces the variables. Our model incorporates several realistic features, including transportation costs and upper bounds on facilities at each level. It accounts for one-time fixed costs associated with selecting each facility. To solve this complex problem, we develop and experimentally test two solution procedures: a multi-start greedy heuristic and a multi-start tabu search. We conduct extensive sensitivity analyses on the results to assess the reliability of proposed algorithms. This study contributes to improved solution methods for large-scale 4L-FLPs, providing a valuable tool for supply chain maturity.

math.OC↗

arXiv2024

Will Southeast Asia be the next global manufacturing hub? A multiway cointegration, causality, and dynamic connectedness analyses on factors influencing offshore decisions

The COVID-19 pandemic has compelled multinational corporations to diversify their global supply chain risk and to relocate their factories to Southeast Asian countries beyond China. Such recent phenomena provide a good opportunity to understand the factors that influenced offshore decisions in the last two decades. We propose a new conceptual framework based on econometric approaches to examine the relationships between these factors. Firstly, the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) for multi-way cointegration analysis by a Johansen test as well as the embedding Granger causality analysis to examine offshore decisions--innovation, technology readiness, infrastructure, foreign direct investment (FDI), and intermediate imports. Secondly, a Quantile Vector Autoregressive (QVAR) model is used to assess the dynamic connectedness among Southeast Asian countries based on the offshore factors. This study explores a system-wide experiment to evaluate the spillover effects of offshore decisions. It reports a comprehensive analysis using time-series data collected from the World Bank. The results of the cointegration, causality, and dynamic connectedness analyses show that a subset of Southeast Asian countries have spillover effects on each other. These countries present a multi-way cointegration and dynamic connectedness relationship. The study contributes to policymaking by providing a data-driven innovative approach through a new conceptual framework.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

A Unified Framework for Integer Programming Formulation of Graph Matching Problems

Graph theory has been a powerful tool in solving difficult and complex problems arising in all disciplines. In particular, graph matching is a classical problem in pattern analysis with enormous applications. Many graph problems have been formulated as a mathematical program and then solved using exact, heuristic, and/or approximated-guaranteed procedures. On the other hand, graph theory has been a powerful tool in visualizing and understanding complex mathematical programming problems, especially integer programs. Formulating a graph problem as a natural integer program (IP) is often a challenging task. However, an IP formulation of the problem has many advantages. Several researchers have noted the need for natural IP formulation of graph theoretic problems. The present study aims to provide a unified framework for IP formulation of graph-matching problems. Although there are many surveys on graph matching problems, none is concerned with IP formulation. This paper is the first to provide a comprehensive IP formulation for such problems. The framework includes a variety of graph optimization problems in the literature. While these problems have been studied by different research communities, however, the framework presented here helps to bring efforts from different disciplines to tackle such diverse and complex problems. We hope the present study can significantly help to simplify some of the difficult problems arising in practice, especially in pattern analysis.

cs.DS↗