arXiv subjects

Baohong Li

Publications and source records attributed to Baohong Li.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Causal Discovery for Irregularly Time Series with Consistency Guarantees

This paper studies causal discovery in irregularly sampled time series-a key challenge in risk-sensitive domains like finance, healthcare, and climate science, where missing data and inconsistent sampling frequencies distort causal mechanisms. The main challenge comes from the interdependence between missing data imputation and causal structure recovery: errors in imputation and structure learning can reinforce each other, leading to an inaccurate causal graph. Existing methods either impute first and then discover, or jointly optimize both via neural representation learning, but lack explicit mechanisms to ensure mutual consistency of imputation and structure learning. We address this challenge with ReTimeCausal, an EM-based framework that alternates between imputation and structure learning, which encourages structural consistency throughout the optimization process. Our framework provides theoretical consistency guarantees for structure recovery and extends classical results to settings with irregular sampling and high missingness. ReTimeCausal combines kernel-based sparse regression and structural constraints in an alternating process that updates the completed data and the causal graph in turn. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show that ReTimeCausal is more effective than existing methods under challenging irregular sampling and missing data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Sequential Treatment Effect Estimation with Unmeasured Confounders

This paper studies the cumulative causal effects of sequential treatments in the presence of unmeasured confounders. It is a critical issue in sequential decision-making scenarios where treatment decisions and outcomes dynamically evolve over time. Advanced causal methods apply transformer as a backbone to model such time sequences, which shows superiority in capturing long time dependence and periodic patterns via attention mechanism. However, even they control the observed confounding, these estimators still suffer from unmeasured confounders, which influence both treatment assignments and outcomes. How to adjust the latent confounding bias in sequential treatment effect estimation remains an open challenge. Therefore, we propose a novel Decomposing Sequential Instrumental Variable framework for CounterFactual Regression (DSIV-CFR), relying on a common negative control assumption. Specifically, an instrumental variable (IV) is a special negative control exposure, while the previous outcome serves as a negative control outcome. This allows us to recover the IVs latent in observation variables and estimate sequential treatment effects via a generalized moment condition. We conducted experiments on 4 datasets and achieved significant performance in one- and multi-step prediction, supported by which we can identify optimal treatments for dynamic systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Causality for Large Language Models

Recent breakthroughs in artificial intelligence have driven a paradigm shift, where large language models (LLMs) with billions or trillions of parameters are trained on vast datasets, achieving unprecedented success across a series of language tasks. However, despite these successes, LLMs still rely on probabilistic modeling, which often captures spurious correlations rooted in linguistic patterns and social stereotypes, rather than the true causal relationships between entities and events. This limitation renders LLMs vulnerable to issues such as demographic biases, social stereotypes, and LLM hallucinations. These challenges highlight the urgent need to integrate causality into LLMs, moving beyond correlation-driven paradigms to build more reliable and ethically aligned AI systems. While many existing surveys and studies focus on utilizing prompt engineering to activate LLMs for causal knowledge or developing benchmarks to assess their causal reasoning abilities, most of these efforts rely on human intervention to activate pre-trained models. How to embed causality into the training process of LLMs and build more general and intelligent models remains unexplored. Recent research highlights that LLMs function as causal parrots, capable of reciting causal knowledge without truly understanding or applying it. These prompt-based methods are still limited to human interventional improvements. This survey aims to address this gap by exploring how causality can enhance LLMs at every stage of their lifecycle-from token embedding learning and foundation model training to fine-tuning, alignment, inference, and evaluation-paving the way for more interpretable, reliable, and causally-informed models. Additionally, we further outline six promising future directions to advance LLM development, enhance their causal reasoning capabilities, and address the current limitations these models face.

cs.CL↗