arXiv subjects

Baosen Zhang

Publications and source records attributed to Baosen Zhang.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

A Convex Neural Network Solver for DCOPF with Generalization Guarantees

The DC optimal power flow (DCOPF) problem is a fundamental problem in power systems operations and planning. With high penetration of uncertain renewable resources in power systems, DCOPF needs to be solved repeatedly for a large amount of scenarios, which can be computationally challenging. As an alternative to iterative solvers, neural networks are often trained and used to solve DCOPF. These approaches can offer orders of magnitude reduction in computational time, but they cannot guarantee generalization, and small training error does not imply small testing errors. In this work, we propose a novel algorithm for solving DCOPF that guarantees the generalization performance. First, by utilizing the convexity of DCOPF problem, we train an input convex neural network. Second, we construct the training loss based on KKT optimality conditions. By combining these two techniques, the trained model has provable generalization properties, where small training error implies small testing errors. In experiments, our algorithm improves the optimality ratio of the solutions by a factor of five in comparison to end-to-end models.

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arXiv2020

Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning in Cournot Games

In this work, we study the interaction of strategic agents in continuous action Cournot games with limited information feedback. Cournot game is the essential market model for many socio-economic systems where agents learn and compete without the full knowledge of the system or each other. We consider the dynamics of the policy gradient algorithm, which is a widely adopted continuous control reinforcement learning algorithm, in concave Cournot games. We prove the convergence of policy gradient dynamics to the Nash equilibrium when the price function is linear or the number of agents is two. This is the first result (to the best of our knowledge) on the convergence property of learning algorithms with continuous action spaces that do not fall in the no-regret class.

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arXiv2020

Frequency Stability Using MPC-based Inverter Power Control in Low-Inertia Power Systems

The electrical grid is evolving from a network consisting of mostly synchronous machines to a mixture of synchronous machines and inverter-based resources such as wind, solar, and energy storage. This transformation has led to a decrease in mechanical inertia, which necessitate a need for the new resources to provide frequency responses through their inverter interfaces. In this paper we proposed a new strategy based on model predictive control to determine the optimal active-power set-point for inverters in the event of a disturbance in the system. Our framework explicitly takes the hard constraints in power and energy into account, and we show that it is robust to measurement noise, limited communications and delay by using an observer to estimate the model mismatches in real-time. We demonstrate the proposed controller significantly outperforms an optimally tuned virtual synchronous machine on a standard 39-bus system under a number of scenarios. In turn, this implies optimized inverter-based resources can provide better frequency responses compared to conventional synchronous machines.

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arXiv2020

Using Mobility for Electrical Load Forecasting During the COVID-19 Pandemic

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has posed unprecedented challenges for the utilities and grid operators around the world. In this work, we focus on the problem of load forecasting. With strict social distancing restrictions, power consumption profiles around the world have shifted both in magnitude and daily patterns. These changes have caused significant difficulties in short-term load forecasting. Typically algorithms use weather, timing information and previous consumption levels as input variables, yet they cannot capture large and sudden changes in socioeconomic behavior during the pandemic. In this paper, we introduce mobility as a measure of economic activities to complement existing building blocks of forecasting algorithms. Mobility data acts as good proxies for the population-level behaviors during the implementation and subsequent easing of social distancing measures. The major challenge with such dataset is that only limited mobility records are associated with the recent pandemic. To overcome this small data problem, we design a transfer learning scheme that enables knowledge transfer between several different geographical regions. This architecture leverages the diversity across these regions and the resulting aggregated model can boost the algorithm performance in each region's day-ahead forecast. Through simulations for regions in the US and Europe, we show our proposed algorithm can outperform conventional forecasting methods by more than three-folds. In addition, we demonstrate how the proposed model can be used to project how electricity consumption would recover based on different mobility scenarios.

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arXiv2020

Learning to Solve Network Flow Problems via Neural Decoding

Many decision-making problems in engineering applications such as transportation, power system and operations research require repeatedly solving large-scale linear programming problems with a large number of different inputs. For example, in energy systems with high levels of uncertain renewable resources, tens of thousands of scenarios may need to be solved every few minutes. Standard iterative algorithms for linear network flow problems, even though highly efficient, becomes a bottleneck in these applications. In this work, we propose a novel learning approach to accelerate the solving process. By leveraging the rich theory and economic interpretations of LP duality, we interpret the output of the neural network as a noisy codeword, where the codebook is given by the optimization problem's KKT conditions. We propose a feedforward decoding strategy that finds the optimal set of active constraints. This design is error correcting and can offer orders of magnitude speedup compared to current state-of-the-art iterative solvers, while providing much better solutions in terms of feasibility and optimality compared to end-to-end learning approaches.

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arXiv2020

Safe Reinforcement Learning of Control-Affine Systems with Vertex Networks

This paper focuses on finding reinforcement learning policies for control systems with hard state and action constraints. Despite its success in many domains, reinforcement learning is challenging to apply to problems with hard constraints, especially if both the state variables and actions are constrained. Previous works seeking to ensure constraint satisfaction, or safety, have focused on adding a projection step to a learned policy. Yet, this approach requires solving an optimization problem at every policy execution step, which can lead to significant computational costs. To tackle this problem, this paper proposes a new approach, termed Vertex Networks (VNs), with guarantees on safety during exploration and on learned control policies by incorporating the safety constraints into the policy network architecture. Leveraging the geometric property that all points within a convex set can be represented as the convex combination of its vertices, the proposed algorithm first learns the convex combination weights and then uses these weights along with the pre-calculated vertices to output an action. The output action is guaranteed to be safe by construction. Numerical examples illustrate that the proposed VN algorithm outperforms vanilla reinforcement learning in a variety of benchmark control tasks.

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arXiv2020

Input Convex Neural Networks for Optimal Voltage Regulation

The increasing penetration of renewables in distribution networks calls for faster and more advanced voltage regulation strategies. A promising approach is to formulate the problem as an optimization problem, where the optimal reactive power injection from inverters are calculated to maintain the voltages while satisfying power network constraints. However, existing optimization algorithms require the exact topology and line parameters of underlying distribution system, which are not known for most cases and are difficult to infer. In this paper, we propose to use specifically designed neural network to tackle the learning and optimization problem together. In the training stage, the proposed input convex neural network learns the mapping between the power injections and the voltages. In the voltage regulation stage, such trained network can find the optimal reactive power injections by design. We also provide a practical distributed algorithm by using the trained neural network. Theoretical bounds on the representation performance and learning efficiency of proposed model are also discussed. Numerical simulations on multiple test systems are conducted to illustrate the operation of the algorithm.

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arXiv2020

No-regret Learning in Cournot Games

This paper examines the convergence of no-regret learning in Cournot games with continuous actions. Cournot games are the essential model for many socio-economic systems, where players compete by strategically setting their output quantity. We assume that players do not have full information of the game and thus cannot pre-compute a Nash equilibrium. Two types of feedback are considered: one is bandit feedback and the other is gradient feedback. To study the convergence of the induced sequence of play, we introduce the notion of convergence in measure, and show that the players' actual sequence of action converges to the unique Nash equilibrium. In addition, our results naturally extend the no-regret learning algorithms' time-average regret bounds to obtain the final-iteration convergence rates. Together, our work presents significantly sharper convergence results for learning in games without strong assumptions on game property (e.g., monotonicity) and shows how exploiting the game information feedback can influence the convergence rates.

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arXiv2020

Transfer Learning for HVAC System Fault Detection

Faults in HVAC systems degrade thermal comfort and energy efficiency in buildings and have received significant attention from the research community, with data driven methods gaining in popularity. Yet the lack of labeled data, such as normal versus faulty operational status, has slowed the application of machine learning to HVAC systems. In addition, for any particular building, there may be an insufficient number of observed faults over a reasonable amount of time for training. To overcome these challenges, we present a transfer methodology for a novel Bayesian classifier designed to distinguish between normal operations and faulty operations. The key is to train this classifier on a building with a large amount of sensor and fault data (for example, via simulation or standard test data) then transfer the classifier to a new building using a small amount of normal operations data from the new building. We demonstrate a proof-of-concept for transferring a classifier between architecturally similar buildings in different climates and show few samples are required to maintain classification precision and recall.

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arXiv2019

Optimal L-Infinity Frequency Control in Microgrids Considering Actuator Saturation

Inverter-connected resources can improve transient stability in low-inertia grids by injecting active power to minimize system frequency deviations following disturbances. In practice, most generation and load disturbances are step changes and the engineering figure-of-merit is often the peak overshoot in frequency resulting from these step disturbances. In addition, the inverter-connected resources tend to saturate much more easily than conventional synchronous machines. However, despite these challenges, standard controller designs must deal with averaged quantities through $H_2$ or $H_\infty$ norms and must account for saturation in ad hoc manners. In this paper, we address these challenges by explicitly considering $L_\infty$ control with saturation using a linear matrix inequality-based approach. We show that this approach leads to significant improvements in stability performance.

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arXiv2019

A Capacity-Price Game for Uncertain Renewables Resources

Renewable resources are starting to constitute a growing portion of the total generation mix of the power system. A key difference between renewables and traditional generators is that many renewable resources are managed by individuals, especially in the distribution system. In this paper, we study the capacity investment and pricing problem, where multiple renewable producers compete in a decentralized market. It is known that most deterministic capacity games tend to result in very inefficient equilibria, even when there are a large number of similar players. In contrast, we show that due to the inherent randomness of renewable resources, the equilibria in our capacity game becomes efficient as the number of players grows and coincides with the centralized decision from the social planner's problem. This result provides a new perspective on how to look at the positive influence of randomness in a game framework as well as its contribution to resource planning, scheduling, and bidding. We validate our results by simulation studies using real world data.

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arXiv2019

Power Flow as Intersection of Circles: A new Fixed Point Method

The power flow (PF) problem is a fundamental problem in power system engineering. Many popular solvers face challenges, such as convergence issues. One can try to rewrite the PF problem into a fixed point equation, which can be solved exponentially fast. But, existing methods have their own restrictions, such as the required AC network structure or bus types. To remove these restrictions, we employ the circle geometry per-bus via rectangular coordinate representation to embed our physical knowledge of operation point selection in PV curves. Each iteration of the algorithm consists of finding intersections of circles, which can be computed efficiently with high numerical accuracy. Such analysis also helps in visualizing PV curve to always select the high voltage solution. We compare the performance of our fixed point algorithm with existing state-of-the-art methods, showing that the proposed method can correctly find the solutions when other methods cannot. In addition, we empirically show that the fixed point algorithm is much more robust to bad initialization points than the existing methods.

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arXiv2019

Fast Calculation of Probabilistic Power Flow: A Model-based Deep Learning Approach

Probabilistic power flow (PPF) plays a critical role in power system analysis. However, the high computational burden makes it challenging for the practical implementation of PPF. This paper proposes a model-based deep learning approach to overcome the computational challenge. A deep neural network (DNN) is used to approximate the power flow calculation and is trained according to the physical power flow equations to improve its learning ability. The training process consists of several steps: 1) the branch flows are added into the objective function of the DNN as a penalty term, which improves the approximation accuracy of the DNN; 2) the gradients used in the back propagation process are simplified according to the physical characteristics of the transmission grid, which accelerates the training speed while maintaining effective guidance of the physical model; and 3) an improved initialization method for the DNN parameters is proposed to improve the convergence speed. The simulation results demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method in standard IEEE and utility benchmark systems.

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arXiv2019

Mitigation of Coincident Peak Charges via Approximate Dynamic Programming

A significant portion of a consumer's annual electrical costs can be made up of coincident peak charges: a transmission surcharge for power consumed when the entire system is at peak demand. This charge occurs only a few times annually, but with per-MW prices orders of magnitudes higher than non-peak times. While predicting the moment of peak demand charges over the course of the entire billing period is possible, optimal cost mitigation strategies based on these predictions have not been explored. In this paper we cast coincident peak cost mitigation as an optimization problem and analyze conditions for optimal and near-optimal policies for mitigation. For small consumers we use approximate dynamic programming to first show the existence of a near-optimal policy and second train a neural policy for curtailing coincident peak charges when subject to ramping constraints.

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arXiv2019

Scenario Forecasting of Residential Load Profiles

Load forecasting is an integral part of power system operations and planning. Due to the increasing penetration of rooftop PV, electric vehicles and demand response applications, forecasting the load of individual and a small group of households is becoming increasingly important. Forecasting the load accurately, however, is considerable more difficult when only a few households are included. A way to mitigate this challenge is to provide a set of scenarios instead of one point forecast, so an operator or utility can consider a range of behaviors. This paper proposes a novel scenario forecasting approach for residential load using flow-based conditional generative models. Compared to existing scenario forecasting methods, our approach can generate scenarios that are not only able to infer possible future realizations of residential load from the observed historical data but also realistic enough to cover a wide range of behaviors. Particularly, the flow-based models utilize a flow of reversible transformations to maximize the value of conditional density function of future load given the past observations. In order to better capture the complex temporal dependency of the forecasted future load on the condition, we extend the structure design for the reversible transformations in flow-based conditional generative models by strengthening the coupling between the output and the conditional input in the transformations. The simulation results show the flow-based designs outperform existing methods in scenario forecasting for residential load by both providing more accurate and more diverse scenarios.

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arXiv2019

Vulnerabilities of Power System Operations to Load Forecasting Data Injection Attacks

We study the security threats of power system operation brought by a class of data injection attacks upon load forecasting algorithms. In particular, with minimal assumptions on the knowledge and ability of the attacker, we design attack data on input features for load forecasting algorithms in a black-box approach. System operators can be oblivious of such wrong load forecasts, which lead to uneconomical or even insecure decisions in commitment and dispatch. This paper is the first attempt to bring up the security issues of load forecasting algorithms to our knowledge, and show that accurate load forecasting algorithm is not necessarily robust to malicious attacks. More severely, attackers are able to design targeted attacks on system operations strategically with additional topology information. We demonstrate the impact of load forecasting attacks on two IEEE test cases. We show our attack strategy is able to cause load shedding with high probability under various settings in the 14-bus test case, and also demonstrate system-wide threats in the 118-bus test case with limited local attacks.

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arXiv2019

Non-Wire Alternatives: an Additional Value Stream for Distributed Energy Resources

Distributed energy resources (DERs) can serve as non-wire alternatives (NWAs) to capacity expansion by managing peak load to avoid or delay traditional expansion projects. However, the value stream derived from using DERs as NWAs is usually not explicitly included in DER planning problems. In this paper, we study a planning problem that co-optimizes investment and operation of DERs and the timing of capacity expansion. By including the timing of capacity expansion as a decision variable, we naturally incorporate NWA value stream of DERs into the planning problem. Furthermore, we show that even though the resulting optimization problem could have millions of variables and is non-convex, an optimal solution can be found by solving a series of smaller linear problems. Finally, we present a NWAs planning problem using real data from the Seattle Campus of the University of Washington.

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arXiv2019

Exploiting Vulnerabilities of Load Forecasting Through Adversarial Attacks

Load forecasting plays a critical role in the operation and planning of power systems. By using input features such as historical loads and weather forecasts, system operators and utilities build forecast models to guide decision making in commitment and dispatch. As the forecasting techniques becomes more sophisticated, however, they also become more vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. In this paper, we study the vulnerability of a class of load forecasting algorithms and analyze the potential impact on the power system operations, such as load shedding and increased dispatch costs. Specifically, we propose data injection attack algorithms that require minimal assumptions on the ability of the adversary. The attacker does not need to have knowledge about the load forecasting model or the underlying power system. Surprisingly, our results indicate that standard load forecasting algorithms are quite vulnerable to the designed black-box attacks. By only injecting malicious data in temperature from online weather forecast APIs, an attacker could manipulate load forecasts in arbitrary directions and cause significant and targeted damages to system operations.

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