arXiv subjects

Bart Cockx

Publications and source records attributed to Bart Cockx.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

Long-Term Effects of Hiring Subsidies for Low-Educated Unemployed Youths

We use regression discontinuity design and difference-in-differences methods to estimate the impact of a one-time hiring subsidy for low-educated unemployed youths in Belgium during the recovery from the Great Recession. Within a year of unemployment, the subsidy increases job-finding in the private sector by 10 percentage points. Over six years, high school graduates secure 2.8 more quarters of private employment. However, they transition from public jobs and self-employment, resulting in no net increase in overall employment, albeit with better wages. High school dropouts experience no lasting benefits. Additionally, in tight labor markets near Luxembourg's employment hub, the subsidy results in a complete deadweight loss.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2022

Priority to unemployed immigrants? A causal machine learning evaluation of training in Belgium

Based on administrative data of unemployed in Belgium, we estimate the labour market effects of three training programmes at various aggregation levels using Modified Causal Forests, a causal machine learning estimator. While all programmes have positive effects after the lock-in period, we find substantial heterogeneity across programmes and unemployed. Simulations show that 'black-box' rules that reassign unemployed to programmes that maximise estimated individual gains can considerably improve effectiveness: up to 20 percent more (less) time spent in (un)employment within a 30 months window. A shallow policy tree delivers a simple rule that realizes about 70 percent of this gain.

econ.EM↗