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Bart van der Holst

Publications and source records attributed to Bart van der Holst.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Energy Partitioning at the Termination Shock

We show new results of a global 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the Boston University outer heliosphere model where we used a newly developed approach that distributes the non-adiabatic shock heating among the cold protons, electrons, and pickup-ions (PUIs), while maintaining total energy conservation of all ions (cold protons and PUIs) and electrons. In our previous simulations ( E.S. Bair et al. 2025; B. van der Holst et al. 2026), all non-adiabatic shock heating was channeled to the cold protons, resulting in a too large temperature jump at the termination shock (TS) for the thermal solar wind. Using a new methodology we improved the simulation results with respect to the temperature jump observed at the TS by Voyager 2 (V2) spacecraft. Our simulations approached the observed jump conditions of a factor 10--20 in the cold solar wind temperature V2 measurements, and we obtain improvements in the simulation results relative to the data. Because we directly estimate in this way the distribution of non-adiabatic heating at the TS, we have the opportunity to study the physical process of heating cold plasma and PUIs in the TS. The results show that having almost 100\% non-adiabatic shock heating going towards PUIs at the TS reproduces the jump conditions observed along the V2 trajectory. This information is key to understanding the physical processes that shape the heliosphere. As shown by M. Opher et al. (2020), PUIs significantly change the shape of the heliosphere, for example, the presence of hot PUIs results in a deflated inner heliosheath. Our work provides the architecture of how energy partitioning at shocks in kinetic simulations (J. Giacalone et al. 2021) can be utilized in global MHD models.

astro-ph.SR↗

Global Multi-ion Solar Wind Model. I. Ion Temperatures

Over the past several decades, observations have shown that minor ions have a higher temperature and flow faster than protons in the solar wind. Theories based on turbulence have been developed that can explain many of these observed phenomena. We present our first step in developing a global multi-ion solar wind model with turbulence by including ion temperatures but not yet including differential streaming. The extent of this model is from the lower transition region (50,000 K temperature) to the corona and inner heliosphere. It uses low-frequency, reflection-driven incompressible turbulence to address coronal heating and solar wind acceleration. The energy partitioning of the turbulence dissipation to the electrons and various ions is based on stochastic heating and linear Landau and transit-time damping. In order to test the validity of our approach we have carried out a three-dimensional simulation of the solar corona and the solar wind using an idealized dipole magnetic field configuration, calculated the Oxygen temperature across the entire domain, and compared it to measurements obtained from the UltraViolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) satellite and with the Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometer (SWICS) on board Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE). The comparison shows that even with the simplified magnetic field configuration the multi-ion model predictions reproduce the heavy-ion preferential heating phenomena in both remote-sensing and in-situ observations.

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The Effects of Energy Conservation in Simulating Solar Eruptions

Strict energy conservation is, perhaps, the most basic principle in all physics, but has proven to be difficult to satisfy in numerical simulations of solar eruptions. The Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) is used to perform a rigorous comparison of CME simulations whose only difference is the use of a conservative vs. non-conservative scheme for the energy equation. A simple, symmetric active region is assumed for the initial magnetic field. As expected, the different numerical schemes result in very different plasma thermal energy, but surprisingly, we also find a factor $>2$ difference in the final kinetic energy, with the energy substantially larger in the energy-conservative scheme. The increase in thermal energy is comparable to the increase in kinetic energy in the conservative simulation. Our analysis reveals that the flare reconnection and increase of kinetic energy terminate earlier with the non-conservative scheme. We conclude that the plasma thermodynamics plays a critical role in the flare reconnection, with the thermal pressure gradient in the current sheet slowing down the reconnection. Our results imply that using strict energy-conservative numerics is critical for space weather modeling of CMEs and for understanding the CME energy budget partitioning.

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Effects of the Background Magnetic Field on Flux Rope Eruptions

Solar eruptive events are generally believed to involve magnetic flux ropes (MFR), formed either in the pre-eruptive phase of the event or during the eruption itself. These MFR eruptions exhibit significant complexity and variations due to the interplay of the physical mechanisms involved, in particular magnetic reconnection and ideal instabilities. This work considers the effect of the background magnetic field on the nature of eruptions with pre-existing MFRs. We used a new MHD model to simulate the whole MFR eruption process, including the pre-eruptive stage and the initiation. Three simulations were performed, all of which used an identical bipolar active region, but with different background magnetic fields in the three cases. The simulations resulted in two successful eruptions (CMEs) and one failed eruption (a confined flare). We analyzed the energetics and the acceleration of the MFR in detail, and found a transition to a rapid exponential rise phase in two of the simulations. We also calculated the criterion for the torus instability and the timing of the breakout and flare reconnections. Our results show that the rapid exponential rise phase is likely due to breakout reconnection. We conclude that a background field antiparallel to the active-region field lowers the magnetic free-energy threshold for eruption; but, does not guarantee a successful eruption. We also found that an antiparallel background field leads to faster flare reconnection, but of shorter duration. Our findings underscore the importance of the background magnetic field in understanding CMEs.

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Evolution of Coronal Mass Ejections in Different Data-Driven Solar Wind Conditions

Numerical models of the solar wind and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) utilize photospheric magnetic field observations to prescribe the inner boundary conditions for the plasma solutions. These magnetic field data are available to the community through various observational instruments, prepared via different methodologies and/or flux-transport models. The solar wind solution driven by these maps provides the ambient plasma environment into which CMEs travel, coupling, and interacting with the surrounding plasma and governing the CME evolution and propagation in the solar corona and inner heliosphere. In this work, we use different input magnetic field maps for the same time period to drive the global Alfven Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM). We obtain the ambient solar wind conditions and compare the plasma properties and magnetic morphology in the coronal domain to study the influence of the input maps. To understand how the resulting coronal solutions impact CMEs, we launch eruptions described by analytical flux ropes into these data-driven solutions and compare their evolution in the coronal domain (up to 24 solar radii radially). The CMEs achieve varying speeds, deceleration rates, propagation directions, mass and energies while coupling with the background solar wind. We quantify these differences to show that the different input driving maps can significantly impact the simulated CME propagation in the solar wind plasma. This also highlights the importance of understanding the uncertainties associated with data-driven modeling that become increasingly important in operational models and space weather prediction.

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Evidence of Time-Dependent Diffusive Shock Acceleration in the 2022 September 5 Solar Energetic Particle Event

On 2022 September 5, a large solar energetic particle (SEP) event was detected by Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and Solar Orbiter (SolO), at heliocentric distances of 0.07 and 0.71 au, respectively. PSP observed an unusual velocity-dispersion signature: particles below $\sim$1 MeV exhibited a normal velocity dispersion, while higher-energy particles displayed an inverse velocity arrival feature, with the most energetic particles arriving later than those at lower energies. The maximum energy increased from about 20-30 MeV upstream to over 60 MeV downstream of the shock. The arrival of SEPs at PSP was significantly delayed relative to the expected onset of the eruption. In contrast, SolO detected a typical large SEP event characterized by a regular velocity dispersion at all energies up to 100 MeV. To understand these features, we simulate particle acceleration and transport from the shock to the observers with our newly developed SEP model - Particle ARizona and MIchigan Solver on Advected Nodes (PARMISAN). Our results reveal that the inverse velocity arrival and delayed particle onset detected by PSP originate from the time-dependent diffusive shock acceleration processes. After shock passage, PSP's magnetic connectivity gradually shifted due to its high velocity near perihelion, detecting high-energy SEPs streaming sunward. Conversely, SolO maintained a stable magnetic connection to the strong shock region where efficient acceleration was achieved. These results underscore the importance of spatial and temporal dependence in SEP acceleration at interplanetary shocks, and provide new insights to understand SEP variations in the inner heliosphere.

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Mitigating Increase-Decrease Gaming with Alternative Connection Agreements: A Defender-Attacker-Defender Game

Redispatch markets are widely used by system operators to manage network congestion. A well-known drawback, however, is that Flexibility Service Providers (FSPs) may strategically adjust their baselines in anticipation of redispatch actions, thereby aggravating congestion and raising system costs. To address this increase-decrease gaming, Distribution System Operators (DSOs) could use Alternative Connection Agreements (ACAs) to conditionally limit the available connection capacity of market participants in the day-ahead stage. In this paper, we present a novel Defender-Attacker-Defender game to investigate the potential of this approach in distribution networks under load and price uncertainty. We solve the resulting trilevel optimization model using a custom branch-and-bound algorithm, and we demonstrate that it efficiently solves the problem without exploring many nodes in the branch-and-bound search tree for most simulated scenarios. The case study demonstrates that applying ACAs can substantially lower redispatch costs (e.g. by 25%) for the DSO with only a limited impact on FSP profits. The effectiveness of the approach critically depends on how often the DSO can invoke ACAs and on the extent to which the DSO can anticipate strategic bidding behavior of the FSP.

eess.SY↗

Risk-Aware Congestion Management with Capacity Limitation Contracts and Redispatch

This paper presents the coordination of two congestion management instruments - capacity limitation contracts (CLCs) and redispatch contracts (RCs) - as a risk-aware resource allocation problem. We propose that the advantages and drawbacks of these instruments can be represented as operational risk profiles and can be balanced through coordination. To this end, we develop a chance-constrained two-stage stochastic mixed-integer program for a system operator procuring flexibility from an aggregator managing a fleet of electric vehicles (EVs). The model captures uncertainty in EV charging and redispatch market conditions, using real order book data from the Dutch redispatch market (GOPACS). Results indicate that combining CLCs and RCs is generally the most cost-effective approach to mitigate risks associated with each instrument, but the optimal mix depends on fleet size and RC activation timing. Large uncertainty about EV loading increases RC activation intraday to correct for forecasting errors at the earlier CLC stage. For large fleet sizes (e.g. 25.000) the optimal policy limits redispatch due to market liquidity risks in the immature redispatch market. This risk increases for later redispatch activation due to shrinking trading windows for redispatch products. These findings highlight how various sources of uncertainty can impact the optimal trade-off between congestion management instruments.

eess.SY↗

Lower Dimensional Spherical Representation of Medium Voltage Load Profiles for Visualization, Outlier Detection, and Generative Modelling

This paper presents the spherical lower dimensional representation for daily medium voltage load profiles, based on principal component analysis. The objective is to unify and simplify the tasks for (i) clustering visualisation, (ii) outlier detection and (iii) generative profile modelling under one concept. The lower dimensional projection of standardised load profiles unveils a latent distribution in a three-dimensional sphere. This spherical structure allows us to detect outliers by fitting probability distribution models in the spherical coordinate system, identifying measurements that deviate from the spherical shape. The same latent distribution exhibits an arc shape, suggesting an underlying order among load profiles. We develop a principal curve technique to uncover this order based on similarity, offering new advantages over conventional clustering techniques. This finding reveals that energy consumption in a wide region can be seen as a continuously changing process. Furthermore, we combined the principal curve with a von Mises-Fisher distribution to create a model capable of generating profiles with continuous mixtures between clusters. The presence of the spherical distribution is validated with data from four municipalities in the Netherlands. The uncovered spherical structure implies the possibility of employing new mathematical tools from directional statistics and differential geometry for load profile modelling.

eess.SY↗

Analytic Model and Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations of Three-dimensional Magnetic Switchbacks

Parker Solar Probe observations reveal that the near-Sun space is almost filled with magnetic switchbacks (``switchbacks'' hereinafter), which may be a major contributor to the heating and acceleration of solar wind. Here, for the first time, we develop an analytic model of an axisymmetric switchback with uniform magnetic field strength. In this model, three parameters control the geometry of the switchback: height (length along the background magnetic field), width (thickness along radial direction perpendicular to the background field), and the radial distance from the center of switchback to the central axis, which is a proxy of the size of the switchback along the third dimension. We carry out three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations to investigate the dynamic evolution of the switchback. Comparing simulations conducted with compressible and incompressible codes, we verify that compressibility, i.e. parametric decay instability, is necessary for destabilizing the switchback. Our simulations also reveal that the geometry of the switchback significantly affects how fast the switchback destabilizes. The most stable switchbacks are 2D-like (planar) structures with large aspect ratios (length to width), consistent with the observations. We show that when plasma beta ($β$) is smaller than one, the switchback is more stable as $β$ increases. However, when $β$ is greater than one, the switchback becomes very unstable as the pattern of the growing compressive fluctuations changes. Our results may explain some of the observational features of switchbacks, including the large aspect ratios and nearly constant occurrence rates in the inner heliosphere.

physics.space-ph↗

Solar Wind Driven from GONG Magnetograms in the Last Solar Cycle

In a previous study, Huang et al. (2023) used the Alfven Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM), one of the widely used solar wind models in the community, driven by ADAPT-GONG magnetograms to simulate the solar wind in the last solar cycle and found that the optimal Poynting flux parameter can be estimated from either the open field area or the average unsigned radial component of the magnetic field in the open field regions. It was also found that the average energy deposition rate (Poynting flux) in the open field regions is approximately constant. In the current study, we expand the previous work by using GONG magnetograms to simulate the solar wind for the same Carrington rotations and determine if the results are similar to the ones obtained with ADAPT-GONG magnetograms. Our results indicate that similar correlations can be obtained from the GONG maps. Moreover, we report that ADAPT-GONG magnetograms can consistently provide better comparisons with 1 AU solar wind observations than GONG magnetograms, based on the best simulations selected by the minimum of the average curve distance for the solar wind speed and density.

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Adjusting the Potential Field Source Surface Height Based on MHD Simulations

A potential field solution is widely used to extrapolate the coronal magnetic field above the Sun's surface to a certain height. This model applies the current-free approximation and assumes that the magnetic field is entirely radial beyond the source surface height, which is defined as the radial distance from the center of the Sun. Even though the source surface is commonly specified at 2.5 Rs (solar radii), previous studies have suggested that this value is not optimal in all cases. In this study, we propose a novel approach to specify the source surface height, by comparing the areas of the open magnetic field regions from the potential field solution with predictions made by a magnetohydrodynamics model, in our case the Alfven Wave Solar atmosphere Model. We find that the adjusted source surface height is significantly less than 2.5 Rs near solar minimum, and slightly larger than 2.5 Rs near solar maximum. We also report that the adjusted source surface height can provide a better open flux agreement with the observations near the solar minimum, while the comparison near the solar maximum is slightly worse.

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Non-equilibrium Ionization Effects on Synthetic Spectra in the AWSoM Solar Corona

In this work we combined AWSoM's non-equilibrium ionization [NEI] calculations from (Szente:2022) with the synthetic spectral computations of SPECTRUM (Szente:2019), to predict non-equilibrium line intensities across the entire domain of the AWSoM 3D global model. We find that the resulting spectra are strongly affected by non-equilibrium effects in the fast wind regions and streamer edges and that these effects propagate to narrowband images from SoHO/EIT, SECCHI/EUVI and SDO/AIA. The dependence shows a different nature for each line observed resulting in significant changes in line intensity, which need to be accounted for during plasma diagnostics. However, we also find that these effects depend on the local plasma properties, and that no single correction can be developed to account for non-equilibrium effects in observed spectra and images. Comparing to observational data we saw that the changes due to NEI, while significant, are not sufficient to account for the differences between Hinode/EIS spectra and AWSoM/SPECTRUM predictions.

astro-ph.SR↗

Solar Wind with Field Lines and Energetic Particles (SOFIE) Model: Application to Historical Solar Energetic Particle Events

In this paper, we demonstrate the applicability of the data-driven and self-consistent solar energetic particle model, Solar-wind with FIeld-lines and Energetic-particles (SOFIE), to simulate acceleration and transport processes of solar energetic particles. SOFIE model is built upon the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) developed at the University of Michigan. In SOFIE, the background solar wind plasma in the solar corona and interplanetary space is calculated by the Aflvén Wave Solar-atmosphere Model(-Realtime) (AWSoM-R) driven by the near-real-time hourly updated Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) solar magnetograms. In the background solar wind, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are launched by placing an imbalanced magnetic flux rope on top of the parent active region, using the Eruptive Event Generator using Gibson-Low model (EEGGL). The acceleration and transport processes are modeled by the Multiple-Field-Line Advection Model for Particle Acceleration (M-FLAMPA). In this work, nine solar energetic particle events (Solar Heliospheric and INterplanetary Environment (SHINE) challenge/campaign events) are modeled. The three modules in SOFIE are validated and evaluated by comparing with observations, including the steady-state background solar wind properties, the white-light image of the CME, and the flux of solar energetic protons, at energies of > 10 MeV.

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Parker Solar Probe Observations of High Plasma Beta Solar Wind from Streamer Belt

In general, slow solar wind from the streamer belt forms a high plasma beta equatorial plasma sheet around the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) crossing, namely the heliospheric plasma sheet (HPS). Current Parker Solar Probe (PSP) observations show that the HCS crossings near the Sun could be full or partial current sheet crossing (PCS), and they share some common features but also have different properties. In this work, using the PSP observations from encounters 4 to 10, we identify streamer belt solar wind from enhancements in plasma beta, and we further use electron pitch angle distributions to separate it into HPS solar wind that around the full HCS crossings and PCS solar wind that in the vicinity of PCS crossings. Based on our analysis, we find that the PCS solar wind has different characteristics as compared with HPS solar wind: a) PCS solar wind could be non-pressure-balanced structures rather than magnetic holes, and the total pressure enhancement mainly results from the less reduced magnetic pressure; b) some of the PCS solar wind are mirror unstable; c) PCS solar wind is dominated by very low helium abundance but varied alpha-proton differential speed. We suggest the PCS solar wind could originate from coronal loops deep inside the streamer belt, and it is pristine solar wind that still actively interacts with ambient solar wind, thus it is valuable for further investigations on the heating and acceleration of slow solar wind.

physics.space-ph↗

Formation of Magnetic Switchbacks Observed by Parker Solar Probe

Magnetic switchbacks are rapid high amplitude reversals of the radial magnetic field in the solar wind that do not involve a heliospheric current sheet crossing. First seen sporadically in the seventies in Mariner and Helios data, switchbacks were later observed by the Ulysses spacecraft beyond 1 au and have been recently identified as a typical component of solar wind fluctuations in the inner heliosphere by the Parker Solar Probe spacecraft. Here we provide a simple yet predictive theory for the formation of these magnetic reversals: the switchbacks are produced by the shear of circularly polarized Alfvén waves by a transversely varying radial wave propagation velocity. We provide an analytic expression for the magnetic field variation, establish the necessary and sufficient conditions and show that the mechanism works in a realistic solar wind scenario.

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Solar wind modeling with the Alfven Wave Solar atmosphere Model driven by HMI-based Near-Real-Time maps by the National Solar Observatory

We explore model performance for the Alfven Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) with near-real-time (NRT) synoptic maps of the photospheric vector magnetic field. These maps, produced by assimilating data from the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), use a different method developed at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) to provide a near contemporaneous source of data to drive numerical models. Here, we apply these NSO-HMI-NRT maps to simulate three Carrington rotations (CRs): 2107-2108 (centered on 2011/03/07 20:12 CME event), 2123 (integer CR) and 2218--2219 (centered on 2019/07/2 solar eclipse), which together cover a wide range of activity level for solar cycle 24. We show simulation results, which reproduce both extreme ultraviolet emission (EUV) from the low corona while simultaneously matching in situ observations at 1 au as well as quantify the total unsigned open magnetic flux from these maps.

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What Sustained Multi-Disciplinary Research Can Achieve: The Space Weather Modeling Framework

MHD-based global space weather models have mostly been developed and maintained at academic institutions. While the "free spirit" approach of academia enables the rapid emergence and testing of new ideas and methods, the lack of long-term stability and support makes this arrangement very challenging. This paper describes a successful example of a university-based group, the Center of Space Environment Modeling (CSEM) at the University of Michigan, that developed and maintained the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) and its core element, the BATS-R-US extended MHD code. It took a quarter of a century to develop this capability and reach its present level of maturity that makes it suitable for research use by the space physics community through the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) as well as operational use by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).

physics.space-ph↗