arXiv subjects

Baruch Meerson

Publications and source records attributed to Baruch Meerson.

At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources

arXiv2011

Switching between phenotypes and population extinction

Many types of bacteria can survive under stress by switching stochastically between two different phenotypes: the "normals" who multiply fast, but are vulnerable to stress, and the "persisters" who hardly multiply, but are resilient to stress. Previous theoretical studies of such bacterial populations have focused on the \emph{fitness}: the asymptotic rate of unbounded growth of the population. Yet for an isolated population of established (and not very large) size, a more relevant measure may be the population \emph{extinction risk} due to the interplay of adverse extrinsic variations and intrinsic noise of birth, death and switching processes. Applying a WKB approximation to the pertinent master equation of such a two-population system, we quantify the extinction risk, and find the most likely path to extinction under both favorable and adverse conditions. Analytical results are obtained both in the biologically relevant regime when the switching is rare compared with the birth and death processes, and in the opposite regime of frequent switching. We show that rare switches are most beneficial in reducing the extinction risk.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2011

Velocity fluctuations of population fronts propagating into metastable states

The position of propagating population fronts fluctuates because of the discreteness of the individuals and stochastic character of processes of birth, death and migration. Here we consider a Markov model of a population front propagating into a metastable state, and focus on the weak noise limit. For typical, small fluctuations the front motion is diffusive, and we calculate the front diffusion coefficient. We also determine the probability distribution of rare, large fluctuations of the front position and, for a given average front velocity, find the most likely population density profile of the front. Implications of the theory for population extinction risk are briefly considered.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2011

Negative velocity fluctuations of pulled reaction fronts

The position of a reaction front, propagating into an unstable state, fluctuates because of the shot noise. What is the probability that the fluctuating front moves considerably slower than its deterministic counterpart? Can the noise arrest the front motion for some time, or even make it move in the wrong direction? We present a WKB theory that assumes many particles in the front region and answers these questions for the microscopic model A->2A, 2A->A and random walk.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2011

Noise induced stabilization in population dynamics

We investigate a model where strong noise in a sub-population creates a metastable state in an otherwise unstable two-population system. The induced metastable state is vortex-like, and its persistence time grows exponentially with the noise strength. A variety of distinct scaling relations are observed depending on the relative strength of the sub-population noises.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2011

Extinction rates of established spatial populations

This paper deals with extinction of an isolated population caused by intrinsic noise. We model the population dynamics in a "refuge" as a Markov process which involves births and deaths on discrete lattice sites and random migrations between neighboring sites. In extinction scenario I the zero population size is a repelling fixed point of the on-site deterministic dynamics. In extinction scenario II the zero population size is an attracting fixed point, corresponding to what is known in ecology as Allee effect. Assuming a large population size, we develop WKB (Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin) approximation to the master equation. The resulting Hamilton's equations encode the most probable path of the population toward extinction and the mean time to extinction. In the fast-migration limit these equations coincide, up to a canonical transformation, with those obtained, in a different way, by Elgart and Kamenev (2004). We classify possible regimes of population extinction with and without an Allee effect and for different types of refuge and solve several examples analytically and numerically. For a very strong Allee effect the extinction problem can be mapped into the over-damped limit of theory of homogeneous nucleation due to Langer (1969). In this regime, and for very long systems, we predict an optimal refuge size that maximizes the mean time to extinction.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2010

Stochastic models of population extinction

Theoretical ecologists have long sought to understand how the persistence of populations depends on biotic and abiotic factors. Classical work showed that demographic stochasticity causes the mean time to extinction to increase exponentially with population size, whereas variation in environmental conditions can lead to a power law scaling. Recent work has focused especially on the influence of the autocorrelation structure ("color") of environmental noise. In theoretical physics, there is a burst of research activity in analyzing large fluctuations in stochastic population dynamics. This research provides powerful tools for determining extinction times and characterizing the pathway to extinction. It yields, therefore, sharp insights into extinction processes and has great potential for further applications in theoretical biology.

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arXiv2010

Large fluctuations in stochastic population dynamics: momentum space calculations

Momentum-space representation renders an interesting perspective to theory of large fluctuations in populations undergoing Markovian stochastic gain-loss processes. This representation is obtained when the master equation for the probability distribution of the population size is transformed into an evolution equation for the probability generating function. Spectral decomposition then brings about an eigenvalue problem for a non-Hermitian linear differential operator. The ground-state eigenmode encodes the stationary distribution of the population size. For long-lived metastable populations which exhibit extinction or escape to another metastable state, the quasi-stationary distribution and the mean time to extinction or escape are encoded by the eigenmode and eigenvalue of the lowest excited state. If the average population size in the stationary or quasi-stationary state is large, the corresponding eigenvalue problem can be solved via WKB approximation amended by other asymptotic methods. We illustrate these ideas in several model examples.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2010

Navier-Stokes hydrodynamics of thermal collapse in a freely cooling granular gas

We employ Navier-Stokes granular hydrodynamics to investigate the long-time behavior of clustering instability in a freely cooling dilute granular gas in two dimensions. We find that, in circular containers, the homogeneous cooling state (HCS) of the gas loses its stability via a sub-critical pitchfork bifurcation. There are no time-independent solutions for the gas density in the supercritical region, and we present analytical and numerical evidence that the gas develops thermal collapse unarrested by heat diffusion. To get more insight, we switch to a simpler geometry of a narrow-sector-shaped container. Here the HCS loses its stability via a transcritical bifurcation. For some initial conditions a time-independent inhomogeneous density profile sets in, qualitatively similar to that previously found in a narrow-channel geometry. For other initial conditions, however, the dilute gas develops thermal collapse unarrested by heat diffusion. We determine the dynamic scalings of the flow close to collapse analytically and verify them in hydrodynamic simulations. The results of this work imply that, in dimension higher than one, Navier-Stokes hydrodynamics of a dilute granular gas is prone to finite-time density blowups. This provides a natural explanation to the formation of densely packed clusters of particles in a variety of initially dilute granular flows.

cond-mat.soft↗

arXiv2010

Time-resolved extinction rates of stochastic populations

Extinction of a long-lived isolated stochastic population can be described as an exponentially slow decay of quasi-stationary probability distribution of the population size. We address extinction of a population in a two-population system in the case when the population turnover -- renewal and removal -- is much slower than all other processes. In this case there is a time scale separation in the system which enables one to introduce a short-time quasi-stationary extinction rate W_1 and a long-time quasi-stationary extinction rate W_2, and develop a time-dependent theory of the transition between the two rates. It is shown that W_1 and W_2 coincide with the extinction rates when the population turnover is absent, and present but very slow, respectively. The exponentially large disparity between the two rates reflects fragility of the extinction rate in the population dynamics without turnover.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2009

Extinction of metastable stochastic populations

We investigate extinction of a long-lived self-regulating stochastic population, caused by intrinsic (demographic) noise. Extinction typically occurs via one of two scenarios depending on whether the absorbing state n=0 is a repelling (scenario A) or attracting (scenario B) point of the deterministic rate equation. In scenario A the metastable stochastic population resides in the vicinity of an attracting fixed point next to the repelling point n=0. In scenario B there is an intermediate repelling point n=n_1 between the attracting point n=0 and another attracting point n=n_2 in the vicinity of which the metastable population resides. The crux of the theory is WKB method which assumes that the typical population size in the metastable state is large. Starting from the master equation, we calculate the quasi-stationary probability distribution of the population sizes and the (exponentially long) mean time to extinction for each of the two scenarios. When necessary, the WKB approximation is complemented (i) by a recursive solution of the quasi-stationary master equation at small n and (ii) by the van Kampen system-size expansion, valid near the fixed points of the deterministic rate equation. The theory yields both entropic barriers to extinction and pre-exponential factors, and holds for a general set of multi-step processes when detailed balance is broken. The results simplify considerably for single-step processes and near the characteristic bifurcations of scenarios A and B.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2009

WKB theory of epidemic fade-out in stochastic populations

Stochastic effects may cause fade-out of an infectious disease in a population immediately after an epidemic outbreak. We develop WKB theory to determine the most probable path of the system toward epidemic fade-out and to evaluate the fade-out probability. The most probable path is an instanton-like orbit in the phase space of the underlying Hamiltonian flow.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2009

Emergence of stability in a stochastically driven pendulum: beyond the Kapitsa effect

We consider a prototypical nonlinear system which can be stabilized by multiplicative noise: an underdamped non-linear pendulum with a stochastically vibrating pivot. A numerical solution of the pertinent Fokker-Planck equation shows that the upper equilibrium point of the pendulum can become stable even when the noise is white, and the "Kapitsa pendulum" effect is not at work. The stabilization occurs in a strong-noise regime where WKB approximation does not hold.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2008

On population extinction risk in the aftermath of a catastrophic event

We investigate how a catastrophic event (modeled as a temporary fall of the reproduction rate) increases the extinction probability of an isolated self-regulated stochastic population. Using a variant of the Verhulst logistic model as an example, we combine the probability generating function technique with an eikonal approximation to evaluate the exponentially large increase in the extinction probability caused by the catastrophe. This quantity is given by the eikonal action computed over "the optimal path" (instanton) of an effective classical Hamiltonian system with a time-dependent Hamiltonian. For a general catastrophe the eikonal equations can be solved numerically. For simple models of catastrophic events analytic solutions can be obtained. One such solution becomes quite simple close to the bifurcation point of the Verhulst model. The eikonal results for the increase in the extinction probability caused by a catastrophe agree well with numerical solutions of the master equation.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2008

Noise driven unlimited population growth

Demographic noise causes unlimited population growth in a broad class of models which, without noise, would predict a stable finite population. We study this effect on the example of a stochastic birth-death model which includes immigration, binary reproduction and death. The unlimited population growth proceeds as an exponentially slow decay of a metastable probability distribution (MPD) of the population. We develop a systematic WKB theory, complemented by the van Kampen system size expansion, for the MPD and for the decay time. Important signatures of the MPD is a power-law tail (such that all the distribution moments, except the zeroth one, diverge) and the presence in the solution of two different WKB modes.

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arXiv2008

Population extinction in a time-modulated environment

The extinction time of an isolated population can be exponentially reduced by a periodic modulation of its environment. We investigate this effect using, as an example, a stochastic branching-annihilation process with a time-dependent branching rate. The population extinction is treated in eikonal approximation, where it is described as an instanton trajectory of a proper reaction Hamiltonian. The modulation of the environment perturbs this trajectory and synchronizes it with the modulation phase. We calculate the corresponding change in the action along the instanton using perturbation techniques supported by numerical calculations. The techniques include a first-order theory with respect to the modulation amplitude, a second-order theory in the spirit of the Kapitsa pendulum effect, and adiabatic theory valid for low modulation frequencies.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2008

Population extinction in a fluctuating environment

Environmental noise can cause an exponential reduction in the mean time to extinction (MTE) of an isolated population. We study this effect on an example of a stochastic birth-death process with rates modulated by a colored Gaussian noise. A path integral formulation yields a transparent way of evaluating the MTE and finding the optimal realization of the environmental noise that determines the most probable path to extinction. The population-size dependence of the MTE changes from exponential in the absence of the environmental noise to a power law for a short-correlated noise and to no dependence for long-correlated noise. We also establish the validity domains of the limits of white noise and adiabatic noise.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2008

The Knudsen temperature jump and the Navier-Stokes hydrodynamics of granular gases driven by thermal walls

Thermal wall is a convenient idealization of a rapidly vibrating plate used for vibrofluidization of granular materials. The objective of this work is to incorporate the Knudsen temperature jump at thermal wall in the Navier-Stokes hydrodynamic modeling of dilute granular gases of monodisperse particles that collide nearly elastically. The Knudsen temperature jump manifests itself as an additional term, proportional to the temperature gradient, in the boundary condition for the temperature. Up to a numerical pre-factor of order unity, this term is known from kinetic theory of elastic gases. We determine the previously unknown numerical pre-factor by measuring, in a series of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, steady-state temperature profiles of a gas of elastically colliding hard disks, confined between two thermal walls kept at different temperatures, and comparing the results with the predictions of a hydrodynamic calculation employing the modified boundary condition. The modified boundary condition is then applied, without any adjustable parameters, to a hydrodynamic calculation of the temperature profile of a gas of inelastic hard disks driven by a thermal wall. We find the hydrodynamic prediction to be in very good agreement with MD simulations of the same system. The results of this work pave the way to a more accurate hydrodynamic modeling of driven granular gases.

cond-mat.soft↗

arXiv2008

Extinction of an infectious disease: a large fluctuation in a non-equilibrium system

We develop a theory of first passage processes in stochastic non-equilibrium systems of birth-death type using two closely related epidemiological models as examples. Our method employs the probability generating function technique in conjunction with the eikonal approximation. In this way the problem is reduced to finding the optimal path to extinction: a heteroclinic trajectory of an effective multi-dimensional classical Hamiltonian system. We compute this trajectory and mean extinction time of the disease numerically and uncover a non-monotone, spiral path to extinction of a disease. We also obtain analytical results close to a bifurcation point, where the problem is described by a Hamiltonian previously identified in one-species population models.

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